What? The news is alive with an intensive variety of predictions, forecasts, and prognostications. Just like they were at the start of the epidemic. Most, if not all, of the disease’s models, turned out wrong, as you also know. Now the discussion is turning; I believe it’s becoming about the economy and stock prices. You may enjoy an example of past forecasts and predictions as a precursor of some of the nonsense you’re likely to hear, are you ready? Here we go…. “You’ll never make any money out of children’s book.” – advice to JK Rowling from the editor at Bloomsbury Books, 1996. “It will be years – not in my time – before a woman will become prime minister.” – Margaret Thatcher, circa 1970 “There is practically no chance communication space satellites will be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television, or radio service inside the United States.” – FCC Commissioner, 1961 “Space travel is utter bilge” – Richard Van Der Riet Woolley, Astronomer Royal, 1956 “You better get secretarial work or get married.” – Emmeline Snively was advising Marilyn Monroe in 1944. “Atomic energy might be as good as our present-day explosives, but it is unlikely to produce anything… Read More
No wonder Memorial Day saw a bunch of folks frolicking on the shores of Lake of The Ozarks. By every account, comparing predictions, projected infection rates, hospital usage, and deaths associated with the COVID virus to the actual cases convince me that we may have wildly overreacted to this virus. To wit, “The COVID-19 death risk in people <65 years old (younger than 65) during the period of fatalities from the epidemic was equivalent to the death risk from driving between 13 and 101 miles per day…”*, Well then, closing down the country, taking on a couple of more trillion in debt was probably wise. Oopsey Daisy…. Professor Spiegelhalter’s chart provides yet another view of reality: And, seems to confirm the research referenced in this message about the real risk of the disease – it’s about the same as getting on with your life if you are younger than 65 years old and slightly worse if you are older than 65 if exhibiting an underlying condition. Worldmeter** offers a fairly comprehensive array of statistics regarding the virus – it may be worth the reader’s time to review this, and based on your profile, determine your risks associated with contracting the… Read More
When the medicine, shutting down our economy, is worse than the cure, alternatives surface. For now, 1st quarter Gross Domestic Product, as reported by BEA, decreased at an annual rate of -4.8%. As I pen this, the Standards & Poors 500 index is up approximately 2.5% and up over 31% from its low on March 23rd. According to earnings data from S&P Dow Jones Indices, corporate earnings are estimated to be approximately 22% lower than in 2019. Is the worse over? Some of the most recent research on how the disease spreads is revealing: Maria Van Kerkhove (WHO) contends after her study in Wuhan that the disease spread in close family and institutional proximity, not casual interaction Hendrik Streeck, the virologist researching Germany’s Heinsberg district, saw little evidence of contracting the disease through shopping or touching contaminated surfaces. China – in a study of 318 clusters, over a thousand patients, 80% were contaminated in the home versus only 34% in public transportation. If we assume the worst-case scenario, as postulated by Avik Roy: Infection will not provide lasting immunity. Treatment for the infected will not materialize. Universal testing will not be readily available, and a vaccine will not develop. Then… Read More
Unfortunately, we live in a world that we need to constantly protect ourselves and our families from people that are trying to take advantage of us and others. Please beware from the known COVID-19 scams. Economic Income Payments: There are fraudsters trying to trick people into giving them their financial information by reaching out via phone call, email or text message with information about their stimulus check. Please do not respond to anyone reaching out to you about your stimulus check; please call the IRS if you believe someone is trying to reach you in good order. Some fraudsters are asking to verify your banking information over the phone or asking you to send your banking information for early payment. If you notice someone is calling about your “stimulus check or payment” beware; the property term is Economic Income Payment. Pandemic-Related Phishing Attempts Pandemic related email scams are now the highest number of attacks related to one issue. Fraudsters are sending emails acting as they are members of the WHO (World Health Organization), the CDC and the IRS trying to obtain secure information from Americans. Red flags to watch for include links for safety tips, links to view cases in… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures are set to open higher at the end of a volatile week of trading. Analyst expect a 14.1% decline in corporate Q1 earnings after mixed results from banks and consumer discretionary firms so far. President Trump is set to sign the $484 billion coronavirus relief bill after it passed the House last night. Markets: The S&P 500 traded above resistance at2825.60 and the 50-day moving average at 2818.56 only to close lower at 2797.80. The index has failed in this price range four times, but that could lead to fewer sellers lurking at the if there is another attempt to breakout. Until then, the base building is continuing, which would be helpful to set up a successful breakout in the future. Potential support remains at 2711.33, but we do not see that level being tested today. We are currently long-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJ Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks.Ðnvesting always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and futures trading could present additional risk based on underlying commodities… Read More
There were several items that went into the CARES Act, but there are a few items that I would like to focus on specifically. Temporary Waiver of 2020 Required Minimum Distributions (RMD) This is great news for investors that begrudgingly withdraw from their IRA accounts every year because the IRS requires them to do so. These investors will be able to save on taxes as any withdraws from an IRA account or retirement plan account is taxed at ordinary income. The 2020 RMD waiver is also approved for IRA Beneficiary Accounts as well. Remember, if you are required to take an RMD you can donate your RMD amount to a church or any 503c organization and make your distribution tax-free. This is a great way to make donations to your favorite charities. If you are a client of ours please let us know if you would like to waive your RMD this year as there is some paperwork for you to complete. 60-Day Rollovers for IRA Accounts As an IRA owner you have the ability to make a withdraw form your IRA and put the money back in within 60 days without having to pay the distribution taxes or penalties. … Read More
Warfare, every day: Surgeon-in-chief, at Columbia University and Chair of the Department of Surgery, Dr. Craig Smith, informs and inspires his warrior-troops every day. It turns out, as reported by the Wall Street Journal that the same surgeon who gained some fame by completing President Bill Clinton’s quadruple bypass surgery send emails to his colleagues every day. Sometimes the communications are alarming other times, inspiring. Here are three excerpts, more at…… https://columbiasurgery.org/news/covid-19-update-32020 3/20/2020 – “Nothing would give me greater pleasure than to apologize profusely in a few weeks for having overestimated the threat. That would mean we never exceeded capacity, and that mortalities and morbidities rarely seen in non-pandemic circumstances were avoided. The next month or two is a horror to imagine if we’re underestimating the threat. So what can we do? Load the sled, check the traces, feed Balto, and mush on. Our cargo must reach Nome. Remember that our families, friends, and neighbors are scared, idle, out of work, and feel impotent. Anyone working in health care still enjoys the rapture of action. It’s a privilege! We mush on.” 3/26/2020 – “Stepping out of the sunshine and back into the cave, I must report that the number of… Read More
At our small practice, is our most cherished value. Each of us, Bobbie, John, Christina, and me*, have absolute faith in each other that our interests are not only aligned with that of our clients but also that they come first in everything we do. We also have faith that Americans and our innovators are well on the way to conquering the current virus. Yes, the government blew it: The CDC, by maintaining absolute and exclusive control over new virus test development, as is now apparent, delayed the process – they screwed-up. The cavalry has arrived. Yes, the private sector is now on a tear to provide us testing, cures, and remedies. We have faith in capitalism. Some folks in our country are advocates for a centralized health care system because as they have loudly expressed all drug company CEOs, to quote a recent candidate for president “are a bunch of crooks.” Maybe we should ask the Italians how their centralized system is responding to the virus. As reported in the Wall Street Journal, Italy had 62 cases on February 22nd, a month later that expanded to over 41 thousand instances with more recorded deaths than any other nation in… Read More
And “I stopped making contributions to my retirement account until the “Stock Market” recovers.”- Otto said. Cecilia, on the other hand, is oblivious to the value of her retirement account, and her contributions continue. So, what are the outcomes? The following hypothetical example tests the question.* Let’s say Otto stops making retirement plan contributions when the “Stock Market” drops from $50.00 to $47.50; then, resumes making contributions when prices climb back where he left off, at $47.50. This action would have skipped the drop to $35.00. Yet, his account value dropped by about -28%. As the “Stock Market” recovers back to $50.00, the price at which he started making deposits, his account balance reaches $6,158 for a compounded rate of return of 2.63%. By neglecting to look at her account, Cecilia lets her deposits continue, and allows the investments to ride. As a result, her maximum draw down is only -17% to Otto’s -28%. And, her compounded rate of return is 14.77% versus Otto’s 2.6%. How are these seemingly counter-intuitive outcomes possible? Simple: by continuing to purchase as prices decline, Cecilia accumulates 241 shares at an average price of $43.50 to Otto’s average share price of $49, resulting in 123 shares… Read More
In late 2009, you may remember, the Greek economy suffered the longest recession of any developed capitalist-based economy, overtaking the U.S. Great depression. Not only did the Greeks spiral into history’s deepest and longest recession but also, failed to make their International Monetary Fund loan repayments on time – they went broke. Their friends, the Germans, led the effort (paid most of the bills), leading to bailout loans in 2010, 2012, and 2015. You may recollect, the government raised taxes, cut spending and reformed their pension system leading to riots and nationwide protests – tourism suffered, nothing worked in the country. Banks closed, the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) dropped to negative numbers. Oh, what fun. That was then. On Friday (1/24) FitchRatings upgraded Greek debt up one notch to semi-lousy from lousy: Not investment grade yet, but better junk than before. But that is not all, investors are bullish – the Greek stock market scooted to a 49% gain last year. Unemployment dropped to a whopping 16.6% in October the lowest unemployment rate since 2011. And, the administration’s GDP goals for this year of 2.8% seem doable: They are estimating GDP growth of greater than 3% in the future.… Read More
