Everything about this year seems BIG. A pandemic. Big swings in equity markets: Down 35% from intraday high (February 19th to the low, March 23rd ), up 70% from that low to yesterday’s (December 17th) high, HUZZAH…. Big intellects, Big money, Big pharma and Big government intersect to provide us not one, but two vaccines with Big efficacy, 94% or higher. In a Big hurry – never in the history of our world, has a vaccine been developed, manufactured or distributed this quickly: Big, Big and Big. Big faith…. In Capitalism, Inventiveness, and in Us: America. Merry Christmas. Carlos Dominguez – CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™, Portfolio Manager, RJFS When you get a minute try out our risk discovery tool – tell your friends https://windsorwealth.management/my-risk-o-meter/ Sources: Photo by: Jamie Hagan @dearjamie Sources are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not, authorize, or sponsor any of the listed sources. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any source or the collection or use of information regarding any source’s users and/or members. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Any opinions are those of Carlos Dominguez and not necessarily those of… Read More
Thanksgiving just passed, “And we might remind ourselves also, that if those men setting out from Delftshaven had been daunted by the troubles they saw around them, then we could not this autumn be thankful for a fair land.” *, I hope you rejoiced as we did with giving thanks for the blessings of living in a free country. The election has come and mostly gone, the world did not end, equity markets did not melt, but instead sighed in relief like the rest of the world. And in doing so, The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a new 30,046 record on November 24th – let me hear the cheers. Covid vaccines are popping out of the woodwork thanks to a combination of capitalism, science, and government cooperation. We may be enjoying this summer kinda like we used to; how about that! GDPNow The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s is estimating growth of 5.6% for the fourth quarter. If that comes to pass, it looks like we may be right where we started at the beginning of the year: Hurrah! The Institute for Supply Management’s October Manufacturing ISM® report registered a manufacturing increase of 3.9%, reaching a 59.3% level, the highest since… Read More
Flying is a new experience for me. I like new challenges; aviation offers plenty. But it is the learning and the discoveries that are fun. As in all new endeavors, a guide is required. My Certified Flying Instructor has been flying for over 44 years. Yes, he has the patience of Job. A line from an old movie, “The Battle of Britain,” comes to mind. “You can teach monkeys to fly better than that,” I think he’s thought it but is too polite to say it. Just as in flying, to engage in planning and investing, employing a logical process increases the chances of getting there. Our CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professionals* strive to become our client’s guides. Their job is to increase the probability of a successful outcome: In flying parlance, getting there and landing safely. You guessed it, a flight plan is required. Just as in real life, we believe every family should spend time, effort, and creativity to define the future they seek. They may not attain it entirely, but over time, as in flight, adapting the flight plan to current conditions will get you there. Maybe not on the day and time you scheduled initially, but most… Read More
Well, somebody did it…. We cannot get away from it. The political noise has started, and it is intensifying. Our friends and advocates are asking: What does it mean for my portfolio? “The world, oops, the Bull-Market, as we know it, is going to come to an end if ******* gets elected.” So goes the recent spectacle of opinions. Some of the uncertainties surrounding this election cycle will most likely spill over into stock prices, up or down, the effect most likely will be temporary and short-lived; no one knows or can predict the impact or direction, in my opinion. Myth – Election results make a difference in portfolio returns. Fact – When investing in equities, the probability of having a positive return in the first twelve months after the initial investment occurs approximately 73% – 74% of the time: Which syncs, admirably, with Schwab’s research finding that equity markets ended in positive territory in 17 out of 23 presidential elections = 74% of the time. Democrats vs. Republicans – Myth: “Stocks always do better when Republicans win.” Fact – According to Fidelity: If Republicans sweep the white house and congress, during the first two years of the presidency, stock… Read More
If you’re reading it, it is history; you know the story. Planning and investing is about achieving favorable outcomes in the future, the unknown. Did you even guess you’d be wearing a mask from time to time this summer? We do not know the future. We would like a peek from time to time, but that is not likely to happen. We know that we do not know. Outcome-based planning, like investing, relies on trying to understand the world as it is, not as we would like it to be. And, for our practice, that means assessing likelihoods. We believe that determining the best, highest probability of reaching your family’s desired outcome consists of quantifying your goals, which means identifying a number, associating it with an outcome, and establishing an end-date for achieving it. Once quantified, our practice develops an investment strategy designed to provide you with the best odds of attaining your desired goals. Now comes the magic: We test and stress test your plan through each known market crisis to determine viability. Yes, each crisis du-jour: depressions, booms, natural disasters, wars, and even elections. And the impact they have had on your current portfolio and, therefore,… Read More
Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, is the world’s* wealthiest person. He and a few other technology leaders recently, July 29th – 2020, appeared before U.S. House of Representatives’ Committee on the Judiciary’s Subcommittee on Antitrust, Commercial, and Administrative Law. The Subcommittee was examining the market power and dominance of Apple, Google, Facebook, and Amazon. I’ve included the links to the Subcommittee if the reader cares to read the opening statements of each organization’s leader and, more importantly, in my opinion, “the statements for the record”: These are from several diverse organizations familiar with each of these powerhouses. I was, and I think you may be inspired, and a little awed by Jeff Bezos’ journey. I’ve provided the link to his statement to the Subcommittee** and I quote below phrases that had an impact on me, I hope you enjoy them: “I founded Amazon 26 years ago with the long-term mission of making it Earth’s most customer-centric company.” “My mom, Jackie, had me when she was a 17-year-old high school student in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Being pregnant in high school was not popular in Albuquerque in 1964. It was difficult for her. When they tried to kick her out of… Read More
Is it instant for you too? We got sidetracked this past Monday during our Investment Committee Meeting: that is, John, Christina, and I wandered off of the agenda into a series of personal diatribes. Yes, our impatience with the world has increased. Due to, we think, the era of the PDA, Personal Digital Assistant, (remember that term?), otherwise known as an iPhone, Android, Galaxy S20, or…. Have you noticed that if it’s not as easy as an Amazon, PayPal, Facebook, or any other online transaction, you grumble? What do you mean you don’t take mobile payments or PayPal, I find myself saying – “REALLY? Even Chick-Fil-A does.” I can pay with my phone, what’s wrong with y’all. A merchant just asked Christina for a paper copy of a receipt, BIG mistake: She went off, in her sweet way. John, otherwise known as Lilly to his friends, chimed-in: “can you imagine using a paper, folded, map to go anywhere.” And, “In the old days to call a young lady, you had to use the PHONE BOOK, call all the last names, if you did not know her dad’s name, and then prayed the dad did not answer the phone and ask… Read More
How do you look at our world, your world? Did you happen to notice what occurred right in the middle of the most recent noise and turmoil? For example, the uncertainty caused by The Federal Reserve’s Jerome Powell comments, “the economy faces potentially significant long-term damage from higher unemployment and a wave of small business failures.” And, the fear caused by the misinformation regarding the COVID 2nd Wave, to the turmoil caused by rioting and destruction on big city streets: Did you happen to notice that Nasdaq Composite reached an all-time high? A friend of mine many years ago reminded me that once it is in print, or once you’ve watched it on the telly, it’s in the past. Equity markets, investors, that is, look forward. That is why Equity markets are “Leading Indicators,” portenders of the future. To what future are equity markets hinting? The Institute For Supply Management (ISM) provides accurate and reliable, my opinion, manufacturing (PMI), and non-manufacturing (NMI) monthly economic activity. The decline is over, it appears, based on the most recent reports. For example, “The May PMI® registered 43.1 percent… This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy after April’s contraction, ….” May’s NMI, although showing… Read More
What? The news is alive with an intensive variety of predictions, forecasts, and prognostications. Just like they were at the start of the epidemic. Most, if not all, of the disease’s models, turned out wrong, as you also know. Now the discussion is turning; I believe it’s becoming about the economy and stock prices. You may enjoy an example of past forecasts and predictions as a precursor of some of the nonsense you’re likely to hear, are you ready? Here we go…. “You’ll never make any money out of children’s book.” – advice to JK Rowling from the editor at Bloomsbury Books, 1996. “It will be years – not in my time – before a woman will become prime minister.” – Margaret Thatcher, circa 1970 “There is practically no chance communication space satellites will be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television, or radio service inside the United States.” – FCC Commissioner, 1961 “Space travel is utter bilge” – Richard Van Der Riet Woolley, Astronomer Royal, 1956 “You better get secretarial work or get married.” – Emmeline Snively was advising Marilyn Monroe in 1944. “Atomic energy might be as good as our present-day explosives, but it is unlikely to produce anything… Read More
No wonder Memorial Day saw a bunch of folks frolicking on the shores of Lake of The Ozarks. By every account, comparing predictions, projected infection rates, hospital usage, and deaths associated with the COVID virus to the actual cases convince me that we may have wildly overreacted to this virus. To wit, “The COVID-19 death risk in people <65 years old (younger than 65) during the period of fatalities from the epidemic was equivalent to the death risk from driving between 13 and 101 miles per day…”*, Well then, closing down the country, taking on a couple of more trillion in debt was probably wise. Oopsey Daisy…. Professor Spiegelhalter’s chart provides yet another view of reality: And, seems to confirm the research referenced in this message about the real risk of the disease – it’s about the same as getting on with your life if you are younger than 65 years old and slightly worse if you are older than 65 if exhibiting an underlying condition. Worldmeter** offers a fairly comprehensive array of statistics regarding the virus – it may be worth the reader’s time to review this, and based on your profile, determine your risks associated with contracting the… Read More
