Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower open this morning as oil prices and Treasury yields rise amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. CNBC reports that a ship was attacked while traversing the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump has ruled out extending a ceasefire with Iran. Rising oil prices contributed to the lower finish of the major averages yesterday, with stocks steadily retreating through the afternoon as crude surged. Semiconductor stocks, which provided an important counterweight to the broad weakness and helped limit losses at the index level, are moving firmly lower in the premarket. A small batch of earnings and relatively quiet corporate news flow largely keeps the market focused on macro pressures. Several economic data releases are on the calendar this morning, including July Housing Starts (Briefing.com consensus 1.360 million) and Building Permits (Briefing.com consensus 1.390 million). (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 7,745.06, and so far this morning, S&P 500 futures are lower by 0.48%. The recent selling has been attributed to the global bond selloff, which has pushed the yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury to 5.32%, a 29-year high. Investors continue to demand higher… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a mostly higher open this morning as the stock market looks to kick off a week that could be relatively devoid of market-moving catalysts. The S&P 500 is set to open just above its baseline after a relatively quiet previous week, though the index did set new record highs and extended its weekly winning streak to three weeks. A strong Q2 earnings season continues to wind down, though a host of notable retailer names are set to report results this week. On the geopolitical front, oil is flat as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is set to expire today. CNBC reports that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains exceptionally low. Stocks weathered higher oil prices last week, with some relief coming from easing expectations of Fed tightening after several tame inflation readings. Only a few data points are on the calendar this morning (none of which are typically market movers), kicking off a relatively quiet week of releases. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a tight range, closing at 7,785.76 and just below the all-time high of 7,816.70. The index has now tested this level twice, potentially… Read More
Headline News: Wholesale costs for goods and services were flat in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday in the latest positive sign for inflation. The producer price index, a measure of underlying inflation pressures, was unchanged for the month, below the 0.2% Dow Jones consensus estimate and after falling 0.1% in June. The June figure was revised from a previously reported decline of 0.3%. Excluding food and energy, core PPI rose 0.2%, against the forecast for a 0.3% gain. Core PPI excluding trade services increased 0.4%. On an annual basis, headline PPI increased 4.7% for the all-items index and 4.2% for core, according to unadjusted figures. The report follows several other indicators telling a similar story – that after a ramp-up in inflation earlier this year fueled by the Iran war and President Donald Trump’s tariffs, the rate of price increases is beginning to ease. (Jeff Cox, CNBC) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in another tight range and closed slightly lower at 7,748.50. The July CPI report came in relatively tame and did not prove to be the market mover we had expected. The index continues to form a tight base and remains well positioned to test the… Read More
Headline News: A key inflation reading Wednesday showed prices moderating across a range of goods and services, possibly taking the urgency out of an imminent interest rate hike. The consumer price index, part of the Federal Reserve’s inflation dashboard, showed a seasonally adjusted increase of 0.1% during July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Excluding food and energy, so-called core CPI rose 0.2%. On an annual basis, the inflation rates were 3.4% and 2.5%. All of the readings were in line with the Dow Jones consensus forecasts. Though the levels held well above the Fed’s 2% target, the tame monthly readings, coupled with similarly moderate levels in June, indicate that the energy-fueled burst earlier in the year is easing. (Jeff Cox, CNBC) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 7,728.20 after trading in a tight range throughout the day. The index has formed a small base at these levels and appears positioned to test the all-time high at 7,793.68. The July CPI report was released this morning in line with expectations, helping ease concerns about additional monetary tightening. The report could take some pressure off the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates later this year, which has helped… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a flattish opening amid a relatively quiet morning for the stock market. There are no economic data releases on the calendar, and this week’s slate of earnings releases is just a fraction of the previous several weeks. Q2 earnings season has largely exceeded expectations, with strong results (particularly across some mega-cap tech names) contributing to the most recent run to record highs. Last week was especially productive for equities, with the major averages all finishing with weekly gains of 3% or wider and the S&P 500 and DJIA notching record highs throughout the week. This week’s primary catalyst comes in the form of the July Consumer Price Index Wednesday morning, with a soft July employment report last week increasing the market’s expectations that the Fed may leave rates unchanged at the next meeting. Additionally, investors will continue to monitor developments on the geopolitical front. President Trump said in an interview that he plans to take a “low-key” approach to Iran, favoring increased economic pressure over additional military strikes, according to Axios. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed higher at 7,757.64 and remained near the upper Bollinger Band. The… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a mixed open this morning as investors assess another sizable batch of earnings and monitor geopolitical developments in the Middle East. The major averages are coming off a mostly lower finish in which select high-profile tech names finally met some resistance after a record-setting run. The S&P 500 notched a record intraday high before finishing lower for the day, the DJIA extended its record run, and the Nasdaq underperformed amid some volatility in semiconductor stocks. Similarly, futures tied to the Nasdaq are lower this morning after the latest batch of earnings reports, with several key memory names moving lower on underwhelming guidance despite beating earnings estimates. On the macro front, oil prices are stable this morning, with NBC News reporting the U.S. and Iran are close to reaching a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though Iran has insisted on some limited control of the waterway. Additionally, Financial Times reports Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will keep his style of limited communication but is open to a September rate hike if inflation readings come in hot. The market will receive preliminary Q2 productivity (Briefing.com consensus 0.8%) and unit labor cost (Briefing.com consensus 1.7%) readings… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher open again this morning as stocks look to add to what has been an exceptional week so far. Yesterday’s action saw the S&P 500 and DJIA both notch record highs as strong earnings, renewed momentum across semiconductor names, and easing oil prices led the market higher. Investors have plenty of earnings reports to assess this morning, including several notable mega-cap names and Dow components. Meanwhile, oil prices are steady around their flatline after two sharp retreats to start the week. Axios reported that the U.S., Iran, and Oman are nearing an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which could be announced today. The interim agreement will last 60 days and could be extended. The market has several economic data releases to look forward to this morning, including the July ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Briefing.com consensus 54.7%). The MBA Mortgage Applications Index for the week ended August 1 decreased 2.9% from a prior decrease of 0.3%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied sharply to a new all-time closing high of 7,736.52, breaking decisively above the previous resistance level of 7,620.90. The RSI continues to move… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher open this morning as strong earnings and easing oil prices continue to lift the market. Stocks are coming off a winning session that saw the major averages each advance by more than 1%, with the S&P 500 closing above the 7,600 mark for the first time since June 2 while the DJIA notched a record closing high. Mega-cap tech names, several of which reported strong earnings last week, were a key driver of the index-level advance. On the macro front, oil is retreating again today after initially moving higher, with reports from Qatar that a potential peace deal between the U.S. and Iran has been drafted acting as a catalyst. Additionally, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC, “There is a chance” the U.S. might have a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz today or tomorrow. Today will be lighter when it comes to economic data, with the 8:30 a.m. release of the June trade balance the most notable release. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied sharply throughout the session, closing at 7,600.50 and breaking above the upper end of its recent trading… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a mostly higher open to start the week, with some enthusiasm coming from a slide in oil prices after President Trump called off planned strikes against Iran. NBC News reports that President Trump said new talks will begin with Iran today, and crude oil is currently down $5.28 (-6.2%) to $79.39 per barrel. Stocks are coming off a mostly higher finish to a volatile week following strong earnings from a handful of Mag 7 names, which also helped reignite some enthusiasm around the AI-buildout cycle. This week will also see a sizable chunk of S&P 500 companies report earnings, including several large chipmaker names along with a large Communication Services company. On the data front, investors will receive the final S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI for July at 9:45 a.m. ET, followed by June Construction Spending and the July ISM Manufacturing Index at 10:00 a.m. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied to close at 7,489.72, and more importantly, finished above the 20-day moving average at 7,481.15. The index is now trading within a well-defined range between 7,294.18 and 7,516.75, and we expect it could remain within that… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher open this morning as semiconductor stocks attract some buying after last week’s selloff, while easing oil prices provide support for the broader market. Stocks are coming off a tough week in which climbing oil and intense selling across semiconductor stocks and other mega-cap tech names pushed the major averages to a firmly lower finish. Large chipmakers are moving higher this morning, while memory names lead the advance after Bloomberg reported that Kimi K3, the latest model from Chinese company Moonshot AI that added to last week’s semiconductor volatility, requires a large amount of memory to operate. On a related note, Axios reported that the Trump administration could ban Chinese AI models. Meanwhile, the market still largely expects negotiations to prevail between the U.S. and Iran despite the two sides exchanging fire. Crude oil is currently down $1.43 (-1.8%) to $80.35 per barrel. Investors received just a couple of earnings reports this morning, though this week will see a considerable ramp-up in the number of companies reporting. On the data front, the 10:00 a.m. ET release of the June leading Economic Index (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%) kicks off a light week of notable releases.… Read More
