Headline News: Job creation was better than expected in April, as the U.S. labor market continued to defy expectations for a slowdown this year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Nonfarm payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 115,000 for the month, down from the 185,000 created in an unusually strong March but better than the 55,000 forecast in the Dow Jones consensus estimate. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%, further proof that the labor market has reached a point where only modest job creation is needed to keep the jobless level steady, given little growth in the labor force. Average hourly earnings, another closely watched metric of labor market health, came in lower than expected, rising 0.2% for the month and 3.6% on an annual basis, compared with respective estimates of 0.3% and 3.8%. (Jeff Cox CNBC) Markets: The S&P 500 traded to a new intraday all-time high of 7,385.02 before sellers stepped in, pushing the index lower to close at 7,337.11. The RSI remains in overbought territory, while the Advance/Decline line also moved lower in confirmation of the selling pressure. Under normal circumstances, these technical signals would point to a near-term sell signal. However, this morning’s monthly… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a modestly higher opening this morning after yesterday’s rally pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to fresh record highs, while the DJIA briefly reclaimed the 50,000 mark. Stocks were supported by another largely positive round of earnings reports, including several major semiconductor names, while additional AI-related announcements and partnerships fueled enthusiasm. The market also received broad support from a sharp retreat in oil prices, as reports signaled the U.S. and Iran could be moving closer to striking a peace deal. The Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. & Iran could hold talks in Pakistan next week, but major disagreements remain over nuclear enrichment limits. In the meantime, investors are assessing another wave of earnings reports while waiting on a few economic data releases this morning. In addition to the weekly initial jobless claims report (Briefing.com consensus 205K), the market will receive the preliminary Q1 Productivity reading (Briefing.com consensus 1.8%) and Unit Labor Costs (Briefing.com consensus 2.7%), followed by March Construction Spending (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%), and finally March consumer Credit (Briefing.com consensus $12.5 billion) this afternoon. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager |) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied once again to a new… Read More
Equity futures point to a mostly lower open this morning amid escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which are sending oil prices higher. Stocks are coming off a winning week that saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reach record highs multiple times, including on Friday. Oil prices were volatile last week as well, but the market was buoyed by an impressive week of mega-cap earnings, featuring massive beats across several “magnificent seven” names and, in many cases, impressive forward guidance. This week will be nearly just as busy on the earnings front, though not quite so when it comes to mega-cap tech names. This morning’s weakness is being attributed to renewed tensions on the geopolitical front, with President Trump threatening more strikes against Iran. The U.S. & Iran are still exchanging drafts of a framework agreement to end the war, but President Trump says he can’t imagine that Iran’s current offer will be acceptable, according to Axios. Additionally, there are conflicting reports that Iran struck a U.S. ship with a missile near the Strait of Hormuz, though U.S. officials have denied the claims. Currently, crude oil is up $2.04 (+2.0%) to $103.98 per barrel. (Michael Gibbs, Managing… Read More
Equity futures point to a mostly higher open this morning after yesterday’s earnings-fueled rally pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to fresh record highs. The market still has plenty of earnings to digest this morning, with a large tech company keeping the momentum rolling across “magnificent seven” names after turning in a solid report. Headlines are relatively quiet elsewhere after a notably busy week that included an FOMC meeting, earnings reports from several of the market’s largest components, and a full slate of economic data. Not much has changed on the geopolitical front, with Bloomberg reporting that President Trump is vowing to maintain the blockade against Iran. Still, oil prices are modestly lower again this morning. On the data front, the market will receive the final S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI for April at 9:45 a.m. ET, and the ISM Manufacturing Index for April (Briefing.com consensus 53.1%) at 10:00 a.m. ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager |) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at another new all-time high of 7,193.83, although the Advance/Decline line failed to confirm the move with a corresponding high, signaling some underlying weakness in market breadth. The RSI has now moved into overbought territory,… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower open as oil prices move higher while the market assesses a hefty slate of earnings reports. The major averages are coming off a mostly higher finish, which saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite notch fresh record highs. The gains were modest in nature, and leadership remains concentrated across mega-cap names. Weakness in the broader market pushed the DJIA modestly lower for the session. The market’s weightiest components will come further into focus this week, as five “magnificent seven” names are set to deliver earnings, starting tomorrow after the close. This morning’s batch of earnings also features some heavyweights, with several large tech and other blue-chip stocks in the mix. On the geopolitical front, Reuters reported that a U.S. official says President Trump is not satisfied with Iran’s proposal to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz because it delays nuclear negotiations to a later date. Oil is sharply higher this morning, with WTI crude back above the $100 per barrel mark. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager |) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at another new all-time high of 7,173.91, breaking above the high end of the recent trading… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower open. There is finger-pointing at rising oil prices ($93.99, +1.03, +1.1%) and concerns about the Iran situation. That is part of it, but profit taking after a huge run to record highs in a short amount of time and disappointing price action in several influential stocks following their earnings reports. Another headwind is the 10-yr note yield, which has quietly moved back above 4.30% again, currently at 4.32%. The stock market has seen its share of indications for lower opens, only to regroup quickly and spring back into positive territory on buy-the-dip action. Traders will be watching to see if that trend remains their friend today or decides to turn a cold shoulder and defies the buy-the-dip impulse. Today’s economic calendar features the weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims report at 8:30 a.m. ET followed by the preliminary S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing and Services PMI readings for April at 9:45 a.m. ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager |) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at another all-time high of 7,137.90, but underlying participation metrics weakened. Up volume registered just 54% of total volume, failing to confirm the price advance and signaling a… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher opening this morning as investors assess a hefty batch of earnings reports and monitor developments on the geopolitical front. The major averages finished mostly lower yesterday, snapping a 13-session winning streak for the Nasdaq Composite as tech and mega-cap names took a modest step back after an impressive rally. The broader market, however, fared relatively well, and the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index finished with a modest gain. Oil prices are flattish this morning after a bounce yesterday as the state of U.S.-Iran negotiations remains tenuous, with Vice President JD Vance set to travel to Pakistan for the next round of talks. While the market will still react to geopolitical swings, the recovery of all losses since the start of the Iran war suggests investors are largely looking past the conflict, as a ceasefire seems the most feasible option for all parties involved. Attention now shifts to earnings season, where solid results and steady guidance from several Dow components reporting today are helping maintain growth projections and reinforce the view that earnings momentum is continuing to build. On the macro front, the Senate will hold a confirmation hearing for Fed Chairman Kevin… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower opening this morning after an escalation in geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend. The major averages are coming off their third consecutive week of gains of 3% or wider across the board, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite notching fresh record highs and the Nasdaq Composite recording 13 straight winning sessions. Stocks are poised to take a step back at the open after Iran has put a pause on the next round of peace talks that were set to take place on Wednesday. NBC News reported Iran has vowed retaliation after the U.S. seized an Iranian cargo ship, with President Trump issuing renewed threats against the country’s energy infrastructure. Crude oil is currently up $4.93 (+6.0%) to $87.52 per barrel. Still, the broader undertone remains constructive for stocks as recent decreases to the price of oil have improved the market’s rate cut odds, while mega-cap and tech stocks have continued to provide steady leadership alongside signs of improving market breadth. That said, today’s pullback looks more like a pause following an extended rally rather than the start of a deeper reversal, as investors weigh elevated geopolitical risks… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher opening this morning after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite set fresh record highs for the second consecutive session in yesterday’s action. Though the gains at the index level were more modest than in recent sessions, participation broadened, and investors were quick to buy the dip amid early tech weakness, helping the Nasdaq Composite notch its 12th straight session of higher finishes. Headlines are relatively quiet again today, though the path of least resistance continues to point higher as stocks have yet to face any real selling interest since the major averages finished recovering losses incurred since the start of the war in Iran. The geopolitical backdrop remains constructive, with the U.S. and Iran likely to resume talks over the weekend, while Israel and Lebanon agreed on a 10-day ceasefire. President Trump reiterated his view that the war should be over soon at an event in Las Vegas. Oil prices moved higher yesterday, but WTI crude is currently down $3.21 (-3.5%) to $87.96 per barrel. Corporate news flow is on the lighter side this morning, though the market has another slate of earnings reports to assess. There are no economic data releases… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a slightly higher opening this morning after the major averages steadily improved from opening losses to post solid gains yesterday. Software stocks saw a notable buy-the-dip bid while mega-caps extended their recent gains, with several cyclical sectors posting solid gains. Notably, the strength saw the S&P 500 erase all the losses it incurred since the start of the Iran war. Despite the U.S. and Iran walking away from negotiations over the weekend, yesterday’s action suggested the market is still optimistic that a deal will be reached soon. Bloomberg reported that the U.S. and Iran are in talks to hold another meeting to discuss a longer-term ceasefire. Recent reports suggest that nuclear policy is a point of division between the two nations, with The New York Times reporting that the U.S. proposed a 20-year suspension of all Iranian nuclear activity. At the same time, Iran responded with a proposal to suspend activity for five years. In addition to developments on the geopolitical front, Q1 earnings are ramping up, with several major banks reporting this morning. On the data front, the market will receive the March PPI (Briefing.com consensus 1.2%) and Core PPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%)… Read More
