Headline News: Equity futures point to a mixed opening this morning, with the stock market poised to continue yesterday’s trends. While oil prices are only modestly higher after yesterday’s spike, the U.S. and Iran continue to exchange fire, with Bloomberg reporting that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains at a near-standstill. The re-escalation in tensions put broad pressure on the market yesterday and sent many oil- and rate-sensitive stocks sharply lower. The S&P 500 and DJIA retreated, though the Nasdaq Composite logged a modestly higher finish due to a solid rotation back into semiconductor stocks. So far, chipmakers are seeing continued momentum, with Nasdaq futures firmly higher as a result. On the data front, the market is set to receive weekly initial jobless claims data at 8:30 a.m. ET (Briefing.com consensus 220,000) followed by June existing home sales (Briefing.com consensus 4.20 million) at 10:00 a.m. ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off during yesterday’s session, testing the 50-day moving average at 7,417.71 before buyers stepped in and sparked a late-day rally, helping the index close at 7,482.71. The successful test of the 50-day moving average is a positive technical development and suggests buyers… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a sharply lower opening this morning as an escalation in hostilities between the U.S. and Iran sends oil prices surging and puts broad pressure on stocks. Oil-driven volatility played a role in yesterday’s lower finish for the major averages, with President Trump revoking the waiver that allowed Iran to sell oil after Iran struck several commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Tensions escalated further overnight, with President Trump declaring the ceasefire over and Axios reporting that fresh U.S. strikes on Iran were four or five times bigger in scope than previous strikes. WTI crude oil is currently up $3.60 (+5.1%) to $74.04 per barrel. Elsewhere, semiconductor stocks are on track for another lower opening, with concentrated pressure across the group weighing on the major averages yesterday. Memory names are among the worst performers in the premarket. Today will be lighter on the data side, though the market will receive the minutes for the June FOMC meeting at 2:00 p.m. ET, the first with new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the helm. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded sideways in a tight range, closing slightly lower at… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a mostly lower open this morning as chipmaker stocks are on pace to give back much of yesterday’s gains. Strength across the group and support from other mega-cap tech names helped the major averages finish higher yesterday after semiconductor stocks retreated in the prior two sessions. The early weakness across semiconductor stocks is being somewhat attributed to an underwhelming reaction to Samsung Electronics’ earnings report overnight, which weighed heavily on South Korea’s Kospi. Futures tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite are under particular pressure this morning, though the DJIA is still on track for a higher opening, suggesting some rotational action could be in play. Headlines are relatively quiet elsewhere, with corporate news flow on the lighter side as the market drifts towards the next earnings season, while not much has changed surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict. Investors will receive the May Trade Balance at 8:30 a.m. ET (Briefing.com consensus -$78.8 billion), the only economic data release of note. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed higher at 7,537.43, breaking above the downtrend line. However, the buying demand was only modest, with up volume accounting for just 55% of… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher opening to the holiday-abbreviated week as tech stocks advance in the premarket after a volatile previous week. The S&P 500 lost 2% last week as many of the market’s largest components struggled against a backdrop of heightened semiconductor weakness, though the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index advanced 1.6% as investors rotated into other pockets of the market. On the geopolitical front, the U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend but have agreed to refrain from more strikes ahead of a fresh round of talks set to take place on Tuesday. This week will be particularly light on the earnings front, though there are a handful of S&P 500 names set to report, including a beleaguered athletic apparel giant scheduled to report tomorrow. There will be a few economic data releases of note throughout the week, though today’s calendar is empty. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 spent most of the trading session under pressure before a late-day rally lifted the index to a close of 7,354.02, just below the 50-day moving average at 7,363.43. The RSI remained below the key 50 level, reflecting weak momentum,… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower opening as semiconductor stocks move sharply lower in the premarket. The group faced choppy action yesterday following a blowout earnings release from a large company, but ended the session with solid gains. That strength was not evident at the index level, as heightened demand for memory caused several “magnificent seven” companies to raise prices, setting up another day of weakness across mega-cap tech. This morning, chipmakers are giving back their gains after reports that OpenAI may delay its IPO to 2027 due to recent volatility across other AI-related names. Additionally, Axios reports that the Trump administration has asked OpenAI to delay the release of its latest model due to security concerns. Outside of the tech space, oil prices continue to retreat, and futures linked to the DJIA hold the narrowest losses, suggesting another day of rotation into the broader market could be in store. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 7,357.49, finishing just above its 50-day moving average at 7,356.18. The RSI remained below the key 50 level, ending the session at 45.30, reflecting continued weak momentum. However, the Advance/Decline line turned higher,… Read More
Headline News: The Federal Reserve’s primary price gauge rose at its highest core level since 2023, reinforcing the central bank’s recent tough talk on inflation. Excluding food and energy, the personal consumption expenditures price index showed a 3.4% annual rate after rising 0.3% for the month, both in line with Dow Jones consensus. The core reading was the highest since October 2023. For the all-items reading, the PCE index showed inflation running at a seasonally adjusted 4.1% annual rate, the highest since April 2023, according to a Commerce Department report Thursday. On a monthly basis, PCE accelerated 0.4%. The annual level was in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate while the monthly reading was 0.1 percentage point below. While Fed officials look at both headline and core rates, they generally consider the latter a better measure of long-run trends, particularly in light of this year’s inflation surge that was driven largely by an acceleration in energy prices tied to the Iran war that have slowly been seeping into other parts of the economy. The report comes a little more than a week after the Fed and new Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered what markets widely viewed as a tough talk… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a flattish opening this morning as investors monitor mostly optimistic updates on negotiations between the U.S. and Iran coming off the long holiday weekend. The two sides signed a 60-day memorandum of understanding last week, pushing oil prices sharply lower and helping the major averages recover from a post-FOMC meeting sell-off to finish higher for the week. The FOMC kept rates unchanged but struck a hawkish tone, which bumped up market expectations and the timeline for a rate hike. Inflation readings will come fully into focus later in the week with Thursday’s release of the May Personal Income and Spending Report, which includes the PCE Price Index (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%), the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Meanwhile, economic data is on the lighter side today. Earnings will also be lighter throughout the week, with just a handful of S&P 500 names set to report. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a relatively tight range on Monday, closing modestly higher at 7,500.58. More importantly, the index managed to finish back above its 20-day moving average at 7,485.26, recovering from the heavy selling pressure seen in the prior session.… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher opening this morning as the market looks to rebound from yesterday’s selloff that followed the June FOMC meeting. The FOMC left rates unchanged, but analysts are referring to the decision as a “hawkish pause” as the dot plot showed nearly half of participants expecting a rate hike by year’s end, while inflation estimates increased. Stocks are supported by retreating oil prices this morning after President Trump officially signed the 60-day memorandum of understanding with Iran, which was touted as immediately reopening the Strait of Hormuz while lifting Iran’s naval blockade. Elsewhere, chipmaker stocks (which were largely resilient to yesterday’s selloff) are posting solid gains in the premarket. The market has several economic data releases on the calendar this morning, including the weekly initial jobless claims report (Briefing.com consensus 226,000). As a reminder, this will be the stock market’s last session of the week, as the market will be closed for the Juneteenth holiday tomorrow. (Michael Gibbs,_Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off sharply following the Federal Reserve meeting, closing at 7,420.10. Selling pressure was broad-based, with down volume reaching 78% of total volume, a sign that institutional… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a mixed opening this morning after the major averages finished mostly lower in yesterday’s action. Tech stocks and, in particular, semiconductors pulled back after a multiple-session rally, though the DJIA notched fresh record highs amid another retreat in oil prices ahead of the U.S.-Iran signing of a memorandum of understanding to end the conflict. Crude oil is modestly higher this morning after President Trump threatened renewed military action against Iran at the G7 conference if he does not like the agreement or if Iran “does not behave.” Meanwhile, chipmakers are poised to rebound from yesterday’s weakness. Today’s session will feature the June FOMC meeting, which will be the first with new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the helm. While the market has not expected a move in rates at this meeting for some time, Warsh’s tone at the press conference will be closely watched, especially given that the war in Iran has its most tangible off-ramp yet. On the data front, the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index decreased 3.8%, from a prior increase of 10.8%. (Michael Gibbs,_Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed slightly lower at 7,511.35, falling just below… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a modestly higher opening after stocks rallied yesterday in response to headlines of a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran that sent oil prices sharply lower. Oil continues to decline this morning, approaching the $ 78-per-barrel mark, though stocks seem to be taking a breather after yesterday’s advance. The rally resulted in fresh record highs for the DJIA. Support was relatively broad, and mega-cap stocks provided solid leadership. The market’s newest mega-cap stock, a large Communication Services company, jumped nearly 20% yesterday and is moving higher again in the premarket ahead of its third trading day. On the data front, the market has several economic releases slated for this morning, including May housing starts (Briefing.com consensus: 1.440 million) and building permits (Briefing.com consensus: 1.410 million). (Michael Gibbs,_Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 gapped sharply higher, breaking through three key resistance levels and closing at 7,554.29. The rally was supported by improving market internals, with the RSI moving higher and the Advance/Decline Line closing at a new high, confirming broad participation in the advance. The one cautionary signal was that up volume accounted for only 53% of total volume, indicating… Read More
