Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 163 points and are trading 3.0% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 774 points and are trading 3.9% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 999 points and are trading 2.4% above fair value. Major equity indices are poised for a sharply higher open after a significant development in the trade war with China. The U.S. agreed to cut tariffs on China to 30% from 145% for 90 days (20% fentanyl tariffs plus 10% reciprocal tariffs). China decided to cut its retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. to 10% from 125% for 90 days as trade talks continue. Also, President Trump will sign an executive order today at 9:00 ET that will require the government to adopt a “most favored nation” pricing model for prescription drugs so the “U.S. will pay the same price as the nation that pays the lowest price anywhere in the world.” Early trading features a risk-on bias, and large-cap tech stocks lead the premarket action. Treasuries exhibited an uptick in selling. The 10-year yield is up six basis points to 4.44%, and the 2-year yield is up ten basis points… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 50 points and are trading 0.9% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 240 points and are trading 1.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 302 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value. Contracts tied to the S&P 500, the NASDAQ 100, and the Dow industrials are higher. The market’s focus remains on tariff-related developments after indications that President Trump is set to announce a trade deal framework with the U.K. later today, fueling optimism about a shift in the global trade tensions. Also, the Bank of England lowered its bank rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, as expected. U.S. Treasuries are seeing early selling. The 10-year yield is up three basis points to 4.31%, and the 2-year yield is up three basis points to 3.82%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 tested support at its 50-day moving average of 5,561.49 and rallied to close above it at 5,631.28. Futures are pointing to a 1% gain this morning, suggesting an open above the current resistance level at 5,695.31. A decisive close above that threshold would shift focus… Read More
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Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 20 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 50 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 174 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. Early trading features a positive bias despite negative responses to earnings from a couple of prominent tech names. Optimism around the trade war situation is growing, contributing to the early trading bias. China’s Commerce Ministry said that the “US has recently sent messages to China through relevant parties, hoping to start talks with China. China is currently evaluating this.” The market sentiment may shift following the 8:30 ET release of the April Employment Situation Report. Treasury yields are little changed. The 10-year yield is down one basis point to 4.22%, and the 2-year yield is up one basis point to 3.71%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed above the 50-day moving average, and today’s jobs report is bullish for equities. The S&P 500 should test the resistance level at 5,695.31 at the open, and a close above that level would erase the losses that… Read More
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Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 12 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 63 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 179 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. Contracts linked to the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow industrials are lower after this week’s solid equity market gains. There was some hope for de-escalation in the trade war with China amid indications that China could implement tariff exemptions on medical equipment and certain industrial chemicals, similar to what was offered during President Trump’s first term. The 10-year yield is three basis points lower at 4.28%, and the 2-year yield is unchanged at 3.79%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed higher at 5,525.21, with the RSI index also rising above the key 50 level to finish at 53.03. Technically, the correction phase appears to be over, and a new uptrend may be underway. However, any new tariff announcements still have the potential to significantly impact the market. From a technical standpoint, we expect the S&P 500 to test potential resistance at 5,636.18,… Read More
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Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 75 points and are trading 1.4% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 299 points and are trading 1.6% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 361 points and are trading 0.9% above fair value. Early trading has a positive bias, with contracts tied to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials sharply higher. Tech stocks led the pre-open action after reports indicated that President Trump exempted items like smartphones, semiconductors, and some other electronics from reciprocal tariffs. Commerce Secretary Lutnick later said that the exemptions would be temporary, while President Trump said that he would soon announce a tariff rate for semiconductors. Treasury yields are lower. The 10-year yield is down six basis points to 4.43%, and the 2-year yield is down four basis points to 3.91%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: S&P 500 futures are up 1.60% to start the week, potentially positioning the index to test resistance at 5,488.73. While that level may prove challenging to break today, the index could consolidate just below it for a few more sessions. Volatility likely isn’t behind us, but we… Read More
