Headline News: Equity futures point to a mixed opening this morning after the major averages finished mostly lower in yesterday’s action. Tech stocks and, in particular, semiconductors pulled back after a multiple-session rally, though the DJIA notched fresh record highs amid another retreat in oil prices ahead of the U.S.-Iran signing of a memorandum of understanding to end the conflict. Crude oil is modestly higher this morning after President Trump threatened renewed military action against Iran at the G7 conference if he does not like the agreement or if Iran “does not behave.” Meanwhile, chipmakers are poised to rebound from yesterday’s weakness. Today’s session will feature the June FOMC meeting, which will be the first with new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the helm. While the market has not expected a move in rates at this meeting for some time, Warsh’s tone at the press conference will be closely watched, especially given that the war in Iran has its most tangible off-ramp yet. On the data front, the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index decreased 3.8%, from a prior increase of 10.8%. (Michael Gibbs,_Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed slightly lower at 7,511.35, falling just below… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a modestly higher opening after stocks rallied yesterday in response to headlines of a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran that sent oil prices sharply lower. Oil continues to decline this morning, approaching the $ 78-per-barrel mark, though stocks seem to be taking a breather after yesterday’s advance. The rally resulted in fresh record highs for the DJIA. Support was relatively broad, and mega-cap stocks provided solid leadership. The market’s newest mega-cap stock, a large Communication Services company, jumped nearly 20% yesterday and is moving higher again in the premarket ahead of its third trading day. On the data front, the market has several economic releases slated for this morning, including May housing starts (Briefing.com consensus: 1.440 million) and building permits (Briefing.com consensus: 1.410 million). (Michael Gibbs,_Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 gapped sharply higher, breaking through three key resistance levels and closing at 7,554.29. The rally was supported by improving market internals, with the RSI moving higher and the Advance/Decline Line closing at a new high, confirming broad participation in the advance. The one cautionary signal was that up volume accounted for only 53% of total volume, indicating… Read More
Headline News: Wholesale prices rose less than expected in May, indicating that pipeline inflationary pressures are percolating higher, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. The producer price index, a measure of final demand costs, increased seasonally adjusted 1.1% on the month, putting the 12-month wholesale inflation rate at 6.5%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.7% monthly move. The annual headline inflation rate was the highest since November 2022. However, excluding food and energy, so-called core PPI accelerated 0.4%, compared to the consensus view of 0.5%, indicating that rising fuel prices are causing much of the inflationary burden. (Jeff Cox, CNBC) Markets: The S&P 500 declined for a fourth consecutive session, closing at 7,266.99 and breaking below the key support level at 7,333.68. Market internals weakened as the RSI fell below 50 and the Advance/Decline line continued to decline, confirming the recent deterioration in breadth. Despite the selloff, down volume represented just 67% of total trading volume, suggesting that investors have not yet reached a capitulation point where panic selling typically signals a short-term market bottom. This morning, a higher-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) report and President Trump’s comments regarding a potential escalation of… Read More
Headline News: Inflation accelerated in May as rising energy costs weighed on consumers, though underlying pressures were less intense. The consumer price index, a broad gauge of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, rose at a seasonally adjusted 0.5% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 4.2%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Both numbers were in line with the Dow Jones consensus. Inflation climbed above 4% for the first time in three years, though the increase met expectations amid concerns over how much the surge in energy prices would impact the economy. The level was the highest since April 2023 and above the 3.8% level from April. However, stripping out volatile food and energy prices, the so-called core CPI accelerated 0.2% for the month and 2.9% from a year ago. While the annual rate was in line with the forecast, the monthly gain was below the 0.3% estimate. (Jeff Cox, CNBC) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a volatile range on Tuesday, testing resistance at its 20-day moving average and slipping below the key support level of 7,333.68. Buyers stepped in near the session lows, allowing the index to recover and close at… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower opening this morning after the major averages set fresh record highs in Monday’s action. Leadership was narrowly concentrated across tech names, while the broader market moved lower after reports that Iran stopped messaging the U.S. in protest of Israel’s strikes in Lebanon. Axios reports that President Trump lashed out at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over Israel’s war in Lebanon, though the current geopolitical situation remains relatively unchanged from yesterday. Meanwhile, tech names are poised to extend recent gains, with a technology hardware company up big in premarket trading, being the latest AI-infrastructure name to rocket higher after a blowout earnings report. On the data front, the market will receive the April JOLTS job openings report at 10:00 a.m. (Michael Gibbs,_Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at another record high, finishing the session at 7,599.96 as enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence continues to fuel the rally. There appears to be a growing element of “fear of missing out” (FOMO) buying, supported by a series of strong earnings reports from technology companies benefiting from the AI boom. This morning, S&P 500 futures are lower by 0.16% as investors await… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher opening as oil prices and Treasury yields move modestly lower this morning. Stocks are coming off a weak session, which was the third consecutive lower finish for the S&P 500. Mega-cap and other growth stocks lagged, though an intraday rebound across semiconductor names helped the major averages improve considerably from session lows. The semiconductor cohort will garner additional attention today as investors anticipate the world’s largest company’s earnings release after the close. President Trump said yesterday that he hopes the Iran war ends “very quickly”, according to The Hill, though reports suggest the U.S. and Iran remain far apart on negotiations. Still, crude oil is currently down $1.85 (-1.8%) to $102.30 per barrel. Today will once again be light on data, though the market will receive the April FOMC meeting minutes this afternoon. The MBA Mortgage Applications Index for the week ended May 16 decreased 2.3%, from a prior increase of 1.7%. The (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off for the third day in a row, closing at 7,272.58. The RSI and the Advance/Decline Line both moved lower, confirming the selling pressure. The 20-day moving average… Read More
Headline News: Job creation was better than expected in April, as the U.S. labor market continued to defy expectations for a slowdown this year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Nonfarm payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 115,000 for the month, down from the 185,000 created in an unusually strong March but better than the 55,000 forecast in the Dow Jones consensus estimate. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%, further proof that the labor market has reached a point where only modest job creation is needed to keep the jobless level steady, given little growth in the labor force. Average hourly earnings, another closely watched metric of labor market health, came in lower than expected, rising 0.2% for the month and 3.6% on an annual basis, compared with respective estimates of 0.3% and 3.8%. (Jeff Cox CNBC) Markets: The S&P 500 traded to a new intraday all-time high of 7,385.02 before sellers stepped in, pushing the index lower to close at 7,337.11. The RSI remains in overbought territory, while the Advance/Decline line also moved lower in confirmation of the selling pressure. Under normal circumstances, these technical signals would point to a near-term sell signal. However, this morning’s monthly… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a modestly higher opening this morning after yesterday’s rally pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to fresh record highs, while the DJIA briefly reclaimed the 50,000 mark. Stocks were supported by another largely positive round of earnings reports, including several major semiconductor names, while additional AI-related announcements and partnerships fueled enthusiasm. The market also received broad support from a sharp retreat in oil prices, as reports signaled the U.S. and Iran could be moving closer to striking a peace deal. The Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. & Iran could hold talks in Pakistan next week, but major disagreements remain over nuclear enrichment limits. In the meantime, investors are assessing another wave of earnings reports while waiting on a few economic data releases this morning. In addition to the weekly initial jobless claims report (Briefing.com consensus 205K), the market will receive the preliminary Q1 Productivity reading (Briefing.com consensus 1.8%) and Unit Labor Costs (Briefing.com consensus 2.7%), followed by March Construction Spending (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%), and finally March consumer Credit (Briefing.com consensus $12.5 billion) this afternoon. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager |) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied once again to a new… Read More
Equity futures point to a mostly lower open this morning amid escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which are sending oil prices higher. Stocks are coming off a winning week that saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reach record highs multiple times, including on Friday. Oil prices were volatile last week as well, but the market was buoyed by an impressive week of mega-cap earnings, featuring massive beats across several “magnificent seven” names and, in many cases, impressive forward guidance. This week will be nearly just as busy on the earnings front, though not quite so when it comes to mega-cap tech names. This morning’s weakness is being attributed to renewed tensions on the geopolitical front, with President Trump threatening more strikes against Iran. The U.S. & Iran are still exchanging drafts of a framework agreement to end the war, but President Trump says he can’t imagine that Iran’s current offer will be acceptable, according to Axios. Additionally, there are conflicting reports that Iran struck a U.S. ship with a missile near the Strait of Hormuz, though U.S. officials have denied the claims. Currently, crude oil is up $2.04 (+2.0%) to $103.98 per barrel. (Michael Gibbs, Managing… Read More
Equity futures point to a mostly higher open this morning after yesterday’s earnings-fueled rally pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to fresh record highs. The market still has plenty of earnings to digest this morning, with a large tech company keeping the momentum rolling across “magnificent seven” names after turning in a solid report. Headlines are relatively quiet elsewhere after a notably busy week that included an FOMC meeting, earnings reports from several of the market’s largest components, and a full slate of economic data. Not much has changed on the geopolitical front, with Bloomberg reporting that President Trump is vowing to maintain the blockade against Iran. Still, oil prices are modestly lower again this morning. On the data front, the market will receive the final S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI for April at 9:45 a.m. ET, and the ISM Manufacturing Index for April (Briefing.com consensus 53.1%) at 10:00 a.m. ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager |) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at another new all-time high of 7,193.83, although the Advance/Decline line failed to confirm the move with a corresponding high, signaling some underlying weakness in market breadth. The RSI has now moved into overbought territory,… Read More
