Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 24 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 170 points and are trading 0.8% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 30 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. There’s a positive bias in early trading as investors digest another slate of earnings news. A large semiconductor name shows a big pre-open gain after better-than-expected earnings and guidance. Other semiconductor-related names trade higher in front of the open in sympathy. This morning’s calendar features an ECB policy announcement at 8:15 ET and September Retail Sales data for the US at 8:30 ET. Weekly jobless claims are also released at 8:30 ET. The 10-year yield is up one basis point to 4.03%, and the 2-year yield is up one basis point to 3.95%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed higher at 5,842.47 after testing the support level at 5,804.34, and the RSI index also increased. So, it appears the S&P 500 has formed a new trading range of 5,804.34- 5,871.41. However, the S&P 500 futures are higher by .40% this morning, which could see the… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up four points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 30 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 30 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Contracts tied to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials are flattish as investors digesting more earnings results. Stocks in the semiconductor space continue to struggle after yesterday’s sharp selling. One semiconductor name is down another 4% ahead of the open after its disappointing Q3 earnings report and ugly-looking net bookings number. Another name is losing ground in front of the open after news that China wants to review the company’s products sold in China, according to Reuters. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index dropped 17%, with purchase applications declining by 7% and refinance applications plunging by 26%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off below support at 5,822.13 to close at 5,815.26, and the RSI index also moved lower after testing the 70 level. It appears the selling was normal profit-taking, as the down volume was only 56% of the total volume. We… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up two points and are trading fractionally above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down five points and are trading fractionally below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up eight points and are trading fractionally above fair value. Moves have been limited for contracts linked to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials. Investors are digesting earnings results from large banks, which have garnered positive responses. Oil prices are dropping after reports that Israel will not strike oil or nuclear targets in its retaliation on Iran. WTI crude oil futures are down 4.4% to $70.62/bbl. Today’s economic lineup features the October NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing index at 8:30 ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at 5,859.85, another new all-time high, and the RSI index is also moving higher in support of the rallies. We feel the trading confirms that a new uptrend is in place. The sellers came in at 5,871.41, which will now become potential resistance, and 5,822.13 is possible support. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up six points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 51 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 81 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Stock futures are mixed ahead of a busy week. Pre-open gains in some mega-cap names have contributed to upside moves in futures tied to the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. This week’s lineup includes earnings results and economic data to digest. The Treasury market is closed today for Columbus Day. In other news, China’s Ministry of Finance disappointed investors by not providing enough details at the press briefing on economic stimulus. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: On Friday, the S&P 500 rallied to close at a new all-time high of 5,815.03. The volume was below average, but the up volume was 76% of the total volume. Also, the RSI index did not make a new high and remains negatively divergent. However, we feel a new uptrend has potentially started and could continue for the rest of the week. There is currently possible resistance at 5,822.13, which should be… Read More
Headline News: According to a Labor Department report Thursday, the pace of price increases over the past year took an unexpected step higher in September as policymakers contemplated their next move on interest rates. The consumer price index, a broad gauge measuring the costs of goods and services across the U.S. economy, increased 0.2% monthly, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.4%. Both readings were 0.1 percentage points above the Dow Jones consensus. Excluding food and energy, core prices increased 0.3% monthly, putting the annual rate at 3.3%. Both core readings were also 0.1 percentage points above forecast. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said in the release that much of the inflation increase—more than three-quarters of the move higher—came from a 0.4% jump in food prices and a 0.2% gain in shelter costs. That offset a 1.9% fall in energy prices. (Jeff Cox CNBC) Markets: The S&P broke out of the thirteen-day base and closed at a new all-time high of 5,792.04. However, the volume was low at 2,227,625,984, and the up volume was only 57% of the total. Also, the RSI index did not make a new high, which is troubling, but it did move past a downtrend line.… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down two points and are trading fractionally below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 20 points. They are trading 0.1% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 25 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Stock futures indicate a lower open after yesterday’s bounce. News that the DOJ is considering remedies for a large communications services company, including a possible breakup in its antitrust case, has contributed to the negative bias. Overseas, Chinese markets continue to decline due to a lack of stimulus measures. Still, China’s Ministry of Finance announced a briefing for Saturday, October 12, to discuss fiscal policy and economic development. China’s Shanghai Composite dropped 6.6%. US Treasury yields have changed a little from yesterday’s settlement levels. The 10-yr yield is up one basis point to 4.04%, and the 2-yr yield is down one basis point to 3.97%. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index dropped 5.1% after last week’s 1.3% decline. Other economic releases today include: 10:00 ET: August Wholesale Inventories (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior 0.2%) 10:30 ET: Weekly crude oil inventories (prior +3.89 mln) 14:00 ET: September FOMC Minutes (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director,… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 25 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 100 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 71 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. Early trading has a positive bias related to pre-open gains in chipmakers and some mega caps. Treasury yields are moving lower, providing some support to equity futures. The 2-yr yield is down three basis points to 3.97%. Stock futures are also reacting to news that China’s National Development and Reform Commission held a press conference about implementing the stimulus but did not announce additional measures. Earlier, the NFIB Small Business Optimism survey increased to 91.5 in September from 91.2 in August. Oil prices are lower after a solid run of late due to worries about Hurricane Milton. The storm was downgraded to a category 4 and is expected to impact the west coast of Florida as a major hurricane Thursday morning. WTI crude oil futures are 2.2% lower at $75.45/bbl. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off all day and came close to the support… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 15 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 73 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 60 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. Stock futures are higher in front of the market-moving September Employment Situation report at 8:30 ET. Mega cap stocks are higher ahead of the open, supporting the early upside moves. The positive bias also relates to news that the International Longshoremen’s Association and the United States Maritime Alliance have reached a tentative agreement on wages and have agreed to extend the Master Contract until January 15, 2025 to return to the bargaining table to negotiate all other outstanding issues. Treasury yields are slightly higher in front of the jobs report, which could impact the Fed’s thinking about rate cuts in the near term. The 10-yr yield is up two basis points to 3.87% and the 2-yr yield is up two basis points to 3.73%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 tested the support at 5,674.49 for the third time after trading in a tight range all… Read More
Headline News: Stock futures edged lower Thursday as investors looked ahead to September’s payrolls report, which is due later this week, while tensions in the Middle East persisted. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 118 points, or 0.2%. S&P 500 futures fell 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.3%. October trading is off to a rough start as escalating tensions in the Middle East dampen investors’ enthusiasm. Stocks tumbled on Tuesday after Iran launched a missile attack on Israel. Investors are preparing for further uncertainty as Israel starts a ground operation in Lebanon. Growing fears have also driven oil prices higher. U.S. crude futures rose more than 1.5%, bringing their week-to-date advance to 4.6%. According to data released Thursday, weekly jobless claims came in slightly higher than economists polled by Dow Jones forecasted. That offers hints into the health of the labor market as traders gear up for September’s payrolls report, which is due on Friday morning. (Alex Harring CNBC) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off down to support at 5,674.49, and the buyers came in to drive the index back up to close at 5,709.54. That was the second test of the 5,674.49 level, and the buyers may be drying up, so another test of… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 14 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 40 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 118 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The potential for further escalation in the Middle East is still impacting the market after reports indicated that Israel will launch a “significant retaliation” to Iran’s attack, targeting oil production facilities, adding that attacks against nuclear facilities are also on the table, according to Axios. WTI crude oil futures are 3.1% higher than Tuesday’s settlement at $72.00/bbl. Treasury yields are little changed from yesterday. The 10-yr yield is up two basis points to 3.76% and the 2-yr yield is down one basis point to 3.61%. Earlier, the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index dropped 1.3% following last week’s 11.0% jump. Other data today include the September ADP Employment Change estimate at 8:15 ET and the weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30 ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off down to the support level at 5,674.49 but rallied to close at 5,708.75. We feel the… Read More
