Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher open this morning as semiconductor stocks attract some buying after last week’s selloff, while easing oil prices provide support for the broader market. Stocks are coming off a tough week in which climbing oil and intense selling across semiconductor stocks and other mega-cap tech names pushed the major averages to a firmly lower finish. Large chipmakers are moving higher this morning, while memory names lead the advance after Bloomberg reported that Kimi K3, the latest model from Chinese company Moonshot AI that added to last week’s semiconductor volatility, requires a large amount of memory to operate. On a related note, Axios reported that the Trump administration could ban Chinese AI models. Meanwhile, the market still largely expects negotiations to prevail between the U.S. and Iran despite the two sides exchanging fire. Crude oil is currently down $1.43 (-1.8%) to $80.35 per barrel. Investors received just a couple of earnings reports this morning, though this week will see a considerable ramp-up in the number of companies reporting. On the data front, the 10:00 a.m. ET release of the June leading Economic Index (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%) kicks off a light week of notable releases.… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a mostly lower opening this morning as semiconductor stocks face an extension of yesterday’s pressure. The semiconductor group lagged yesterday, though broad strength and solid gains across other meg-cap tech names helped the major averages finish higher. This morning’s pressure follows an 11% drop in Korean-listed shares of memory powerhouse SK Hynix, with the stock’s ADR debut on the Nasdaq last Friday contributing to recent choppiness across the group. Elsewhere, oil prices are little changed this morning, though Bloomberg reports the U.S. hit a sanctioned Iranian oil tanker as traffic in the Strait of Hormuz dwindles. Investors have a decent batch of earnings reports to assess this morning as Q2 earnings season begins to broaden beyond the financials sector. Additionally, today’s economic data slate is also relatively full and features the June Retail Sales report (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) at 8:30 a.m. ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed little changed at 7,572.40, finishing just below the current potential resistance level of 7,579.97. During the session, the index tested the 10-day moving average, where buyers once again stepped in to support the uptrend. The RSI index and the… Read More
Headline News: Wholesale prices unexpectedly fell in June as sliding energy prices helped brighten the inflation picture, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. The producer price index posted a seasonally adjusted 0.3% decline for the month, compared to the Dow Jones consensus estimate for the final-demand cost measure to be unchanged. On an annual basis, the index indicated a 5.5% inflation rate. Excluding food and energy, core PPI rose 0.2%, against the outlook for a 0.3% increase. As with consumer prices, the index benefited from easing energy costs, particularly as oil fell due to receding tensions between the U.S. and Iran. (Jeff Cox, CNBC) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in another tight range, closing at 7,543.59 while holding above its 10-day moving average. Technically, the index appears poised for a potential breakout above the key resistance level at 7,557.92. If that level is surpassed, the all-time high at 7,620.90 could be tested later this week. Inflation data continued to support the bullish case for equities, as the June Producer Price Index (PPI) came in better than expected, reinforcing yesterday’s softer Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Those reports suggest inflationary pressures may continue to ease, which is favorable… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower open this morning as semiconductor stocks face pressure in the premarket while lingering hostilities between the U.S. and Iran send oil prices higher. Both semiconductors and oil contributed to considerable choppiness last week, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite notching solid weekly gains, while the DJIA faced a modest loss. Crude oil is currently up $2.43 (+3.4%) to $73.84 per barrel after the U.S. and Iran traded strikes over the weekend. Iran maintains that the Strait of Hormuz is closed (and attacked a commercial ship traveling the waterway), though Bloomberg reports that a southern route remains open. Meanwhile, semiconductor stocks are under pressure after shares of a large semiconductor moved sharply lower following a successful ADS debut on the NASDAQ on Friday. There are no earnings on the calendar today, but tomorrow will effectively kick off the Q2 earnings season with a slate of major banking names. Similarly, there are no economic data releases of note today, though tomorrow will feature the June CPI (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%). (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied for a second consecutive session, closing at 7,575.39, just below the… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a mixed opening this morning, with the stock market poised to continue yesterday’s trends. While oil prices are only modestly higher after yesterday’s spike, the U.S. and Iran continue to exchange fire, with Bloomberg reporting that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains at a near-standstill. The re-escalation in tensions put broad pressure on the market yesterday and sent many oil- and rate-sensitive stocks sharply lower. The S&P 500 and DJIA retreated, though the Nasdaq Composite logged a modestly higher finish due to a solid rotation back into semiconductor stocks. So far, chipmakers are seeing continued momentum, with Nasdaq futures firmly higher as a result. On the data front, the market is set to receive weekly initial jobless claims data at 8:30 a.m. ET (Briefing.com consensus 220,000) followed by June existing home sales (Briefing.com consensus 4.20 million) at 10:00 a.m. ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off during yesterday’s session, testing the 50-day moving average at 7,417.71 before buyers stepped in and sparked a late-day rally, helping the index close at 7,482.71. The successful test of the 50-day moving average is a positive technical development and suggests buyers… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a sharply lower opening this morning as an escalation in hostilities between the U.S. and Iran sends oil prices surging and puts broad pressure on stocks. Oil-driven volatility played a role in yesterday’s lower finish for the major averages, with President Trump revoking the waiver that allowed Iran to sell oil after Iran struck several commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Tensions escalated further overnight, with President Trump declaring the ceasefire over and Axios reporting that fresh U.S. strikes on Iran were four or five times bigger in scope than previous strikes. WTI crude oil is currently up $3.60 (+5.1%) to $74.04 per barrel. Elsewhere, semiconductor stocks are on track for another lower opening, with concentrated pressure across the group weighing on the major averages yesterday. Memory names are among the worst performers in the premarket. Today will be lighter on the data side, though the market will receive the minutes for the June FOMC meeting at 2:00 p.m. ET, the first with new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the helm. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded sideways in a tight range, closing slightly lower at… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a mostly lower open this morning as chipmaker stocks are on pace to give back much of yesterday’s gains. Strength across the group and support from other mega-cap tech names helped the major averages finish higher yesterday after semiconductor stocks retreated in the prior two sessions. The early weakness across semiconductor stocks is being somewhat attributed to an underwhelming reaction to Samsung Electronics’ earnings report overnight, which weighed heavily on South Korea’s Kospi. Futures tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite are under particular pressure this morning, though the DJIA is still on track for a higher opening, suggesting some rotational action could be in play. Headlines are relatively quiet elsewhere, with corporate news flow on the lighter side as the market drifts towards the next earnings season, while not much has changed surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict. Investors will receive the May Trade Balance at 8:30 a.m. ET (Briefing.com consensus -$78.8 billion), the only economic data release of note. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed higher at 7,537.43, breaking above the downtrend line. However, the buying demand was only modest, with up volume accounting for just 55% of… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher opening to the holiday-abbreviated week as tech stocks advance in the premarket after a volatile previous week. The S&P 500 lost 2% last week as many of the market’s largest components struggled against a backdrop of heightened semiconductor weakness, though the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index advanced 1.6% as investors rotated into other pockets of the market. On the geopolitical front, the U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend but have agreed to refrain from more strikes ahead of a fresh round of talks set to take place on Tuesday. This week will be particularly light on the earnings front, though there are a handful of S&P 500 names set to report, including a beleaguered athletic apparel giant scheduled to report tomorrow. There will be a few economic data releases of note throughout the week, though today’s calendar is empty. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 spent most of the trading session under pressure before a late-day rally lifted the index to a close of 7,354.02, just below the 50-day moving average at 7,363.43. The RSI remained below the key 50 level, reflecting weak momentum,… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower opening as semiconductor stocks move sharply lower in the premarket. The group faced choppy action yesterday following a blowout earnings release from a large company, but ended the session with solid gains. That strength was not evident at the index level, as heightened demand for memory caused several “magnificent seven” companies to raise prices, setting up another day of weakness across mega-cap tech. This morning, chipmakers are giving back their gains after reports that OpenAI may delay its IPO to 2027 due to recent volatility across other AI-related names. Additionally, Axios reports that the Trump administration has asked OpenAI to delay the release of its latest model due to security concerns. Outside of the tech space, oil prices continue to retreat, and futures linked to the DJIA hold the narrowest losses, suggesting another day of rotation into the broader market could be in store. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 7,357.49, finishing just above its 50-day moving average at 7,356.18. The RSI remained below the key 50 level, ending the session at 45.30, reflecting continued weak momentum. However, the Advance/Decline line turned higher,… Read More
Headline News: The Federal Reserve’s primary price gauge rose at its highest core level since 2023, reinforcing the central bank’s recent tough talk on inflation. Excluding food and energy, the personal consumption expenditures price index showed a 3.4% annual rate after rising 0.3% for the month, both in line with Dow Jones consensus. The core reading was the highest since October 2023. For the all-items reading, the PCE index showed inflation running at a seasonally adjusted 4.1% annual rate, the highest since April 2023, according to a Commerce Department report Thursday. On a monthly basis, PCE accelerated 0.4%. The annual level was in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate while the monthly reading was 0.1 percentage point below. While Fed officials look at both headline and core rates, they generally consider the latter a better measure of long-run trends, particularly in light of this year’s inflation surge that was driven largely by an acceleration in energy prices tied to the Iran war that have slowly been seeping into other parts of the economy. The report comes a little more than a week after the Fed and new Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered what markets widely viewed as a tough talk… Read More
