Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower opening this morning after the U.S. and Iran failed to reach an agreement this weekend, sending oil prices higher and reigniting concerns of a prolonged conflict. President Trump announced via Truth Social that the U.S. Navy will begin a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, and threatened further strikes against Iran. Stocks are coming off a winning week in which the major indices each advanced by 3% or more following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. The announcement resulted in solid gains across the major averages and a sharp retreat in oil prices, with some enthusiasm across mega-cap and the broader AI trade supporting the major averages. Currently, crude oil is up $7.43 (+7.7%) to $104.00 per barrel. While geopolitical developments continue to shape market direction in the near term, investors are gearing up for Q1 earnings season, with the major banks kicking off the action this week. Today’s economic data is limited to the 10:00 ET release of March Existing Home Sales (Briefing.com consensus 4.09 million). (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager |) Markets: The S&P 500 advanced to its upper Bollinger Band, where selling pressure… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a modestly lower opening this morning as investors cautiously monitor the tenuous ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran. In particular, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, which The Wall Street Journal reports has officials concerned that the ceasefire could be upended. Additionally, Iran continues to lament Israeli strikes against the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, arguing that the ceasefire agreement extends to them as well. Crude oil is currently up $4.09 (+4.3%) to $98.50 per barrel after retreating more than 16% yesterday. Outside of the geopolitical realm, the market is set to receive a full slate of economic data this morning, including the February PCE Price Index (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%), the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager |) Markets: The S&P 500 gapped higher at the open and rallied throughout the day, closing at 6,782.81. The index decisively moved above both the 20-day and the 200-day moving averages. That move above the 200-day is significant and could attract additional buyers in the coming weeks. The RSI moved above the 50 level and closed at 58.50, while the Advance-Decline line also moved higher in support of the rally. The one negative… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower opening this morning as tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalate ahead of tonight’s 8:00 p.m. ET deadline to strike a deal. Stocks are coming off a quiet session that offered little in the way of new geopolitical developments, with the major averages notching modest gains as oil prices rose only slightly. Sentiment has shifted this morning, with The Wall Street Journal reporting that negotiators are no longer confident that a deal can be reached before tonight’s deadline, which President Trump has threatened will result in the bombing of Iranian power plants and bridges. Bloomberg reports that the U.S. and Israel have already initiated another wave of strikes against Iran, with Axios reporter Barak Ravid adding, “The U.S. military conducted strikes on military targets on Kharg Island, U.S. official says.” Crude oil is currently up $2.48 (+2.2%) to $114.89 per barrel. Corporate news flow is once again on the lighter side as geopolitical developments take center stage. On the data front, investors will receive February Durable Orders (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%) at 8:30 a.m. ET, and February Consumer Credit (Briefing.com consensus $7.0 billion) at 3:00 p.m. ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager |)… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a modestly higher opening this morning after the major averages finished little changed on Thursday, though the indices captured gains of 3.0% or wider for the week. Last week’s rally was supported by optimism that a ceasefire could be reached between the U.S. and Iran, as well as by commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who noted that inflation expectations remain well anchored in the near term. Developments on the geopolitical and energy fronts continue to drive headlines this morning, with Axios reporting that the U.S., Iran, and mediators are discussing a 45-day ceasefire agreement that could end the war, though sources say the chances of a deal are slim. President Trump said that if a deal is not reached by the Tuesday deadline, Iran will face a new wave of attacks against infrastructure sites. Crude oil is down modestly to around $110 per barrel, though Bloomberg reports that Iran has rejected opening the Strait of Hormuz as a part of any ceasefire deal. Elsewhere, corporate news flow is once again on the lighter side, coming off the long weekend, with Q1 earnings season looming ahead. The 10:00 a.m. ET release of the ISM… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a sharply lower opening this morning as concerns that the U.S. and Iran are not as close to a ceasefire as previously thought have sent oil prices surging. Stocks are coming off a second consecutive session of solid gains, largely driven by hopes that the war in Iran will draw to a close soon. There were reports that President Trump told aides the U.S. will withdraw from military operations in the next two to three weeks. Last night, President Trump addressed the nation on the conflict in Iran. While the President reiterated that the U.S. was nearing the completion of its objectives in Iran, the address came with renewed threats against Tehran and promises to “bring them back to the stone age.” Additionally, The New York Times reports that U.S. intelligence agencies do not believe Iran is currently willing to engage in talks to end the war. Crude oil is currently up $9.23 (+9.2%) to $109.35 per barrel. On the data front, the market will receive the February Trade Balance (Briefing.com consensus -$55.8 billion) at 8:30 a.m. ET, alongside the weekly initial jobless claims report (Briefing.com consensus 215K). (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager |)… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher opening this morning after the major averages finished mostly lower to start the holiday-abbreviated week. Yesterday’s session was a bit of a whirlwind as the market navigated more mixed signals surrounding the conflict in Iran. Strength was relatively broad, but renewed weakness across semiconductor names weighed heavily on the major averages. This morning’s early gains are largely being attributed to developments on the geopolitical front. In particular, The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump has told aides he is willing to end U.S. military operations against Iran even as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, as trying to secure the waterway would likely push the operation past its 4-to-6 week timeline. Still, the current state of negotiations remains unclear, with The New York Times reporting that Iran’s fractured leadership is making it difficult for the country to coordinate. The Pentagon will hold a briefing on Iran at 8:00 a.m. ET. Investors will receive a few economic data points this morning, including the March Consumer Confidence report (Briefing.com consensus 88.0; prior: 91.2). The market will also hear from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman (voting FOMC member), Fed Governor Michael Barr (voting FOMC member),… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower opening this morning as geopolitical volatility and climbing oil prices continue to exert broad pressure on the market. The major averages each closed more than 1% lower in yesterday’s action as optimism of a near-term negotiation between the U.S. and Iran faded. The state of the conflict and its potential resolution remain murky to say the least. President Trump said via Truth Social that the U.S. will temporarily halt strikes against Iranian energy, showing an eagerness to strike a deal to end the conflict. However, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Pentagon is considering sending 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East, escalating concerns of a potential ground conflict. Higher oil prices and geopolitical concerns weighed on the market yesterday, with particular weakness across mega-cap and tech stocks. Some of the mega-cap weakness stemmed from separate factors, but the losses culminated in the worst day for the S&P 500 since the conflict with Iran began. Crude oil is currently up $2.29 (+2.4%) to $96.77 per barrel. Yesterday’s weakness leaves the major averages entering today’s session mostly lower for the week, with the major averages nearing correction territory as they slip… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a sharply higher opening this morning after President Trump announced a potential de-escalation in the war in Iran. President Trump said via Truth Social that the U.S. and Iran have engaged in productive conversations around a “complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East,” adding that the talks will continue and he has instructed the Department of War to postpone any strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure. The stock market was on track to extend last week’s losses. Still, commentary sent equity futures surging, putting the major averages in position to challenge their respective 200-day moving averages at the open. Oil made a sharp move lower in response, with crude oil currently down $6.45 (-6.6%) to $91.78 per barrel. The major averages each shed roughly 2% last week as higher oil prices and Treasury yields put broad pressure on the market. Developments on the geopolitical and energy fronts will likely be a key driver of action today, as corporate news flow is relatively light, with no earnings reports on the calendar. Similarly, today’s economic data is limited to the 10:00 a.m. ET release of the January Construction Spending Report… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher opening this morning, following a losing week for equities, with the major averages posting losses of more than 1.0% across the board. The weakness was largely tied to a steady increase in the price of oil as the war in Iran continued, while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained at a near standstill. Developments on the geopolitical front are providing the primary catalyst for equity futures this morning. The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration plans to announce a multi-country coalition to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, with the announcement expected as early as this week. Additionally, Energy Secretary Chris Wright, in an interview, said the war with Iran will “certainly come to an end in the next few weeks,” noting that he thinks the Strait of Hormuz will be opened in the “not-too-distant future,” according to ABC News. Oil is currently down $1.62 (-1.6%) to $97.09 per barrel after testing the $ 100-per-barrel mark overnight. Energy and geopolitical developments continue to dominate headlines, though a few other elements are in play this week. The Fed will issue its decision for the March FOMC meeting on Wednesday,… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower open this morning after stocks closed mixed yesterday amid a whirlwind of geopolitical developments. Yesterday’s trade saw the market balance inflationary concerns tied to the sharp rise in oil prices against optimism that the conflict in Iran will not drag on longer than anticipated. The decisive move lower in equity futures, coupled with a rise in treasury yields, suggests the market is now not so sure that the conflict will remain contained or that its economic fallout will prove fleeting. Reuters reported late yesterday that Iran will attack any ship traversing the Strait of Hormuz, a headline that has seen crude oil futures rise nearly 7% this morning after closing 6% higher yesterday. Additionally, NBC News reported that Iranian drones hit the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, further stoking concerns that the conflict might be far from de-escalating. Elsewhere, mega-cap tech and software names are giving back some of yesterday’s strength in the premarket after a solid session yesterday that helped the major averages overcome the bulk of their early weakness. Corporate newsflow has taken a backseat amid the geopolitical turmoil, though there are a few notable earnings moves in the… Read More
