Headline News: The stock market is poised for a flat opening with S&P 500 futures trading one point above fair value. Yesterday’s action saw a slide in tech stocks after Monday’s record-breaking session, which stifled further gains in the S&P 500 despite a strong performance from small and mid-cap stocks. The market awaits the fate of the large reconciliation bill, which passed through the Senate yesterday, 51-50, and is now currently being debated in the House. President Trump has threatened to impose a 35% tariff on Japan if a trade deal is not struck before the July 9 deadline. The market received the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index, which increased by 2.7% from a prior 1.1% rise. The June ADP Employment Change report (Briefing.com consensus 97K; prior 37K) will be released at 8:15 ET. Treasuries are on track for a lower start with the 10-yr yield rising four basis points to 4.29%.’ (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at 6,198.01, failing to set a new all-time high and potentially beginning to form a base at current levels. The index has moved back inside the upper Bollinger Band, while the RSI remains in overbought territory—suggesting… Read More
Headline News: The stock market is on track for a modestly lower opening, with S&P 500 futures down 16 points or 0.3% below fair value. The projected slower opening comes after yesterday’s strong showing in which several mega-cap stocks pushed to new all-time highs, and in turn boosted the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite to record highs. The market awaits the final amendments to the large reconciliation bill, as the Senate continues its “vote-a-rama” with a House vote expected on Wednesday. Republicans are considering lowering the debt ceiling to win the support of Senator Rand Paul. Notably, the bill has been stripped of an amendment that sought to bar state regulation of AI for the next ten years. In other macro-related news, Financial Times reports that the Trump administration is considering narrowing trade deals in order to avoid imposing new tariffs on July 9. Fed Chairman Powell will take part in a discussion at the European Central Bank’s conference in Sintra, Portugal at 9:30 ET. Today’s economic data will include the release of the final S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (prior 52.0) at 9:45 ET, followed by May Construction Spending (Briefing.com consensus -0.2%; prior -0.4%), May job openings (prior 7.391… Read More
Headline News: The stock market is on track for a higher opening with S&P 500 futures trading 25 points above fair value. The market is expected to build on Friday’s gains, which saw the S&P 500 eclipse and close at new all-time high levels. The Washington Post reports that the Senate is set to vote on the large reconciliation bill today. However, there is still some inter-party disagreement on the bill, so immediate passage is not yet specific. Additionally, Canada has rescinded the Digital Services Tax in hopes of resuming trade negotiations with the U.S. The Federal Reserve announced that all 22 banks that were subject to its stress test passed the exercise. This is likely to result in some early strength in the financials sector. Today’s economic data will be limited to the 9:45 ET release of the Chicago PMI for June (Briefing.com consensus 43.4; prior 40.5). Treasuries hold modest gains with the 10-year yield down three basis points at 4.25%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high of 6,173.07, gaining 1.9% over the past four trading sessions. While the breakout is notable, the up volume accounted for only… Read More
Headline News: The stock market is on course for a flattish start with futures on the S&P 500 trading seven points above fair value after a quiet night. Equity futures have seen limited movement this morning, hanging onto their big gains from Tuesday. The overnight session did not cause any notable shifts in sentiment with the market remaining hopeful that the Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold. President Trump is at the NATO summit in the Netherlands, where members are set to agree to an increase to the defense spending target to 5% of GDP. Treasuries are little changed with the 10-yr yield up one basis point at 4.30% ahead of today’s $70 bln 5-yr note sale at 13:00 ET. The market received the weekly MBA Mortgage Index this morning, which was up 1.1% to follow last week’s 2.6% decrease. Later in the day, the New Home Sales report for May (Briefing.com consensus 700,000; prior 743,000) will be released at 10:00 ET. Fed Chairman Powell will continue his semiannual testimony on monetary policy to Congress, but today’s appearance before the Senate Banking Committee is not expected to produce many headlines. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up seven points and are trading 0.1% above fair value; the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 28 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down four points and are trading fractionally below fair value. There is little conviction in the early going as market participants await details from the U.S.-China trade talks, which have been extended into today. President Trump said he has been getting good reports but that “China’s not easy.” There isn’t much other news at the moment to supplant these trade negotiations as a market mover. Asian markets and European bourses have also tread a mixed and largely unchanged line, waiting for details on trade talks. The May NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is the lone release on today’s economic calendar. It showed an uptick to 98.8 from 95.8 in April. The 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 3.99%, and the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.45%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 continues to trade in a narrow range and is now testing the upper Bollinger Band.… Read More
Headline News: The stock market is poised for a modestly higher open. Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up 11 points and are trading 0.1% above their fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 25 points and are trading 0.1% above their fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 58 points and are trading 0.1% above their fair value. Seeing a little bit of carryover momentum from Friday, yet the market is also waiting hopefully for headlines out of today’s U.S.-China trade talks in London, which are expected to produce some agreements on relaxing export controls. Separately, Bloomberg reports that the Senate could release its version of the reconciliation bill soon, with the aim of passing the final bill by July 4. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at 6,000.36, moving above the long-standing resistance level of 5,986.09. However, up volume accounted for only 76% of total volume, falling short of the 80% threshold typically seen in confirmed breakouts. As such, we do not yet view this move as a decisive breakout. A more convincing rally, ideally accompanied by stronger upside volume, would be needed before the index can… Read More
Headline News: The stock market is on course for a flat start after a subdued night in global equity markets, with futures on the S&P 500 trading in line with fair value. Asian stocks had a decent showing, with South Korea leading the way, while Japan saw gains in its JGBs even though today’s 30-year bond auction met soft demand. Elsewhere, the European Central Bank is likely to announce a rate cut at 8:15 ET, and there is speculation that ECB President Lagarde could hint at a pause in the cycle during her press conference. In the U.S., there is a continued focus on trade policy, with participants wondering when President Trump will speak with China’s President Xi. Treasuries hold modest gains, with longer tenors showing some relative strength. The 10-year yield is down three basis points at 4.34%, while the 2-year yield is down one basis point at 3.87%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a tight range, closing at 5,970.81, just under the current potential support level at 5,986.09. The April jobs report is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning, so we expect traders to remain on the sidelines again today.… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 163 points and are trading 3.0% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 774 points and are trading 3.9% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 999 points and are trading 2.4% above fair value. Major equity indices are poised for a sharply higher open after a significant development in the trade war with China. The U.S. agreed to cut tariffs on China to 30% from 145% for 90 days (20% fentanyl tariffs plus 10% reciprocal tariffs). China decided to cut its retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. to 10% from 125% for 90 days as trade talks continue. Also, President Trump will sign an executive order today at 9:00 ET that will require the government to adopt a “most favored nation” pricing model for prescription drugs so the “U.S. will pay the same price as the nation that pays the lowest price anywhere in the world.” Early trading features a risk-on bias, and large-cap tech stocks lead the premarket action. Treasuries exhibited an uptick in selling. The 10-year yield is up six basis points to 4.44%, and the 2-year yield is up ten basis points… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 50 points and are trading 0.9% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 240 points and are trading 1.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 302 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value. Contracts tied to the S&P 500, the NASDAQ 100, and the Dow industrials are higher. The market’s focus remains on tariff-related developments after indications that President Trump is set to announce a trade deal framework with the U.K. later today, fueling optimism about a shift in the global trade tensions. Also, the Bank of England lowered its bank rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, as expected. U.S. Treasuries are seeing early selling. The 10-year yield is up three basis points to 4.31%, and the 2-year yield is up three basis points to 3.82%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 tested support at its 50-day moving average of 5,561.49 and rallied to close above it at 5,631.28. Futures are pointing to a 1% gain this morning, suggesting an open above the current resistance level at 5,695.31. A decisive close above that threshold would shift focus… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 20 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 50 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 174 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. Early trading features a positive bias despite negative responses to earnings from a couple of prominent tech names. Optimism around the trade war situation is growing, contributing to the early trading bias. China’s Commerce Ministry said that the “US has recently sent messages to China through relevant parties, hoping to start talks with China. China is currently evaluating this.” The market sentiment may shift following the 8:30 ET release of the April Employment Situation Report. Treasury yields are little changed. The 10-year yield is down one basis point to 4.22%, and the 2-year yield is up one basis point to 3.71%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed above the 50-day moving average, and today’s jobs report is bullish for equities. The S&P 500 should test the resistance level at 5,695.31 at the open, and a close above that level would erase the losses that… Read More
