Headline News: Wholesale prices rose less than expected in May, indicating that pipeline inflationary pressures are percolating higher, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. The producer price index, a measure of final demand costs, increased seasonally adjusted 1.1% on the month, putting the 12-month wholesale inflation rate at 6.5%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.7% monthly move. The annual headline inflation rate was the highest since November 2022. However, excluding food and energy, so-called core PPI accelerated 0.4%, compared to the consensus view of 0.5%, indicating that rising fuel prices are causing much of the inflationary burden. (Jeff Cox, CNBC) Markets: The S&P 500 declined for a fourth consecutive session, closing at 7,266.99 and breaking below the key support level at 7,333.68. Market internals weakened as the RSI fell below 50 and the Advance/Decline line continued to decline, confirming the recent deterioration in breadth. Despite the selloff, down volume represented just 67% of total trading volume, suggesting that investors have not yet reached a capitulation point where panic selling typically signals a short-term market bottom. This morning, a higher-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) report and President Trump’s comments regarding a potential escalation of… Read More
Headline News: Inflation accelerated in May as rising energy costs weighed on consumers, though underlying pressures were less intense. The consumer price index, a broad gauge of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, rose at a seasonally adjusted 0.5% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 4.2%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Both numbers were in line with the Dow Jones consensus. Inflation climbed above 4% for the first time in three years, though the increase met expectations amid concerns over how much the surge in energy prices would impact the economy. The level was the highest since April 2023 and above the 3.8% level from April. However, stripping out volatile food and energy prices, the so-called core CPI accelerated 0.2% for the month and 2.9% from a year ago. While the annual rate was in line with the forecast, the monthly gain was below the 0.3% estimate. (Jeff Cox, CNBC) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a volatile range on Tuesday, testing resistance at its 20-day moving average and slipping below the key support level of 7,333.68. Buyers stepped in near the session lows, allowing the index to recover and close at… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower opening this morning after the major averages set fresh record highs in Monday’s action. Leadership was narrowly concentrated across tech names, while the broader market moved lower after reports that Iran stopped messaging the U.S. in protest of Israel’s strikes in Lebanon. Axios reports that President Trump lashed out at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over Israel’s war in Lebanon, though the current geopolitical situation remains relatively unchanged from yesterday. Meanwhile, tech names are poised to extend recent gains, with a technology hardware company up big in premarket trading, being the latest AI-infrastructure name to rocket higher after a blowout earnings report. On the data front, the market will receive the April JOLTS job openings report at 10:00 a.m. (Michael Gibbs,_Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at another record high, finishing the session at 7,599.96 as enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence continues to fuel the rally. There appears to be a growing element of “fear of missing out” (FOMO) buying, supported by a series of strong earnings reports from technology companies benefiting from the AI boom. This morning, S&P 500 futures are lower by 0.16% as investors await… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher opening as oil prices and Treasury yields move modestly lower this morning. Stocks are coming off a weak session, which was the third consecutive lower finish for the S&P 500. Mega-cap and other growth stocks lagged, though an intraday rebound across semiconductor names helped the major averages improve considerably from session lows. The semiconductor cohort will garner additional attention today as investors anticipate the world’s largest company’s earnings release after the close. President Trump said yesterday that he hopes the Iran war ends “very quickly”, according to The Hill, though reports suggest the U.S. and Iran remain far apart on negotiations. Still, crude oil is currently down $1.85 (-1.8%) to $102.30 per barrel. Today will once again be light on data, though the market will receive the April FOMC meeting minutes this afternoon. The MBA Mortgage Applications Index for the week ended May 16 decreased 2.3%, from a prior increase of 1.7%. The (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off for the third day in a row, closing at 7,272.58. The RSI and the Advance/Decline Line both moved lower, confirming the selling pressure. The 20-day moving average… Read More
Headline News: Job creation was better than expected in April, as the U.S. labor market continued to defy expectations for a slowdown this year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Nonfarm payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 115,000 for the month, down from the 185,000 created in an unusually strong March but better than the 55,000 forecast in the Dow Jones consensus estimate. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%, further proof that the labor market has reached a point where only modest job creation is needed to keep the jobless level steady, given little growth in the labor force. Average hourly earnings, another closely watched metric of labor market health, came in lower than expected, rising 0.2% for the month and 3.6% on an annual basis, compared with respective estimates of 0.3% and 3.8%. (Jeff Cox CNBC) Markets: The S&P 500 traded to a new intraday all-time high of 7,385.02 before sellers stepped in, pushing the index lower to close at 7,337.11. The RSI remains in overbought territory, while the Advance/Decline line also moved lower in confirmation of the selling pressure. Under normal circumstances, these technical signals would point to a near-term sell signal. However, this morning’s monthly… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a modestly higher opening this morning after yesterday’s rally pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to fresh record highs, while the DJIA briefly reclaimed the 50,000 mark. Stocks were supported by another largely positive round of earnings reports, including several major semiconductor names, while additional AI-related announcements and partnerships fueled enthusiasm. The market also received broad support from a sharp retreat in oil prices, as reports signaled the U.S. and Iran could be moving closer to striking a peace deal. The Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. & Iran could hold talks in Pakistan next week, but major disagreements remain over nuclear enrichment limits. In the meantime, investors are assessing another wave of earnings reports while waiting on a few economic data releases this morning. In addition to the weekly initial jobless claims report (Briefing.com consensus 205K), the market will receive the preliminary Q1 Productivity reading (Briefing.com consensus 1.8%) and Unit Labor Costs (Briefing.com consensus 2.7%), followed by March Construction Spending (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%), and finally March consumer Credit (Briefing.com consensus $12.5 billion) this afternoon. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager |) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied once again to a new… Read More
Equity futures point to a mostly lower open this morning amid escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which are sending oil prices higher. Stocks are coming off a winning week that saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reach record highs multiple times, including on Friday. Oil prices were volatile last week as well, but the market was buoyed by an impressive week of mega-cap earnings, featuring massive beats across several “magnificent seven” names and, in many cases, impressive forward guidance. This week will be nearly just as busy on the earnings front, though not quite so when it comes to mega-cap tech names. This morning’s weakness is being attributed to renewed tensions on the geopolitical front, with President Trump threatening more strikes against Iran. The U.S. & Iran are still exchanging drafts of a framework agreement to end the war, but President Trump says he can’t imagine that Iran’s current offer will be acceptable, according to Axios. Additionally, there are conflicting reports that Iran struck a U.S. ship with a missile near the Strait of Hormuz, though U.S. officials have denied the claims. Currently, crude oil is up $2.04 (+2.0%) to $103.98 per barrel. (Michael Gibbs, Managing… Read More
Equity futures point to a mostly higher open this morning after yesterday’s earnings-fueled rally pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to fresh record highs. The market still has plenty of earnings to digest this morning, with a large tech company keeping the momentum rolling across “magnificent seven” names after turning in a solid report. Headlines are relatively quiet elsewhere after a notably busy week that included an FOMC meeting, earnings reports from several of the market’s largest components, and a full slate of economic data. Not much has changed on the geopolitical front, with Bloomberg reporting that President Trump is vowing to maintain the blockade against Iran. Still, oil prices are modestly lower again this morning. On the data front, the market will receive the final S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI for April at 9:45 a.m. ET, and the ISM Manufacturing Index for April (Briefing.com consensus 53.1%) at 10:00 a.m. ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager |) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at another new all-time high of 7,193.83, although the Advance/Decline line failed to confirm the move with a corresponding high, signaling some underlying weakness in market breadth. The RSI has now moved into overbought territory,… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower open as oil prices move higher while the market assesses a hefty slate of earnings reports. The major averages are coming off a mostly higher finish, which saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite notch fresh record highs. The gains were modest in nature, and leadership remains concentrated across mega-cap names. Weakness in the broader market pushed the DJIA modestly lower for the session. The market’s weightiest components will come further into focus this week, as five “magnificent seven” names are set to deliver earnings, starting tomorrow after the close. This morning’s batch of earnings also features some heavyweights, with several large tech and other blue-chip stocks in the mix. On the geopolitical front, Reuters reported that a U.S. official says President Trump is not satisfied with Iran’s proposal to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz because it delays nuclear negotiations to a later date. Oil is sharply higher this morning, with WTI crude back above the $100 per barrel mark. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager |) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at another new all-time high of 7,173.91, breaking above the high end of the recent trading… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower open. There is finger-pointing at rising oil prices ($93.99, +1.03, +1.1%) and concerns about the Iran situation. That is part of it, but profit taking after a huge run to record highs in a short amount of time and disappointing price action in several influential stocks following their earnings reports. Another headwind is the 10-yr note yield, which has quietly moved back above 4.30% again, currently at 4.32%. The stock market has seen its share of indications for lower opens, only to regroup quickly and spring back into positive territory on buy-the-dip action. Traders will be watching to see if that trend remains their friend today or decides to turn a cold shoulder and defies the buy-the-dip impulse. Today’s economic calendar features the weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims report at 8:30 a.m. ET followed by the preliminary S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing and Services PMI readings for April at 9:45 a.m. ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager |) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at another all-time high of 7,137.90, but underlying participation metrics weakened. Up volume registered just 54% of total volume, failing to confirm the price advance and signaling a… Read More
