Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 35 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 190 points and are trading 1.0% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 50 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. Early trading has a positive bias, supported by pre-open gains in mega-cap and semiconductor stocks. President Biden announced his exit from the 2024 presidential race in an X post, adding that he endorses VP Kamala Harris, who will seek the Democratic nomination. The response from the equity and bond markets has been muted so far. The 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.22%, and the 2-yr note yield is up one basis point to 4.52%. There is no US economic data of note today. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off for the third day while moving below the 20-day moving average to close at 5,505.00. However, the selling was not intense as the volume came in at only 2,637,592,832 shares traded, and the down volume was only 60%. So, there is a chance for a snapback rally today. So far… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up five points and are trading 0.1% above fair value; the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 26 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 61 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Early action is mixed, perhaps because there is a lot of mixed-up action around the globe following a flawed CrowdStrike technical update that impacted Microsoft’s operating system and caused a load of system outages that have affected airlines, banks, exchanges, and many other businesses. CrowdStrike said the bug was identified and that it rolled back its update; accordingly, system recovery efforts are underway around the globe but not yet fully restored in all cases. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off sharply and closed at 5,544.59, just above the 20-day moving average at 5,538.97. The RSI index also continues to dive lower to support the selling, so we feel the recent short-term uptrend is over. However, the long-term uptrend is still in place, and the recent pullback could soon bring money off the sidelines. There is now potential support at 5,538.97 and then possibly at… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 55 points and are trading 1.0% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 315 points and are trading 1.5% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 89 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. Early trading has a negative bias. Pre-open declines in semiconductor-related names have contributed to the action after Bloomberg reported that President Biden is considering using more severe trade restrictions on chip imports from China. Treasury yields are slightly higher, keeping pressure on equities. The 10-year note yield is up one basis point to 4.18%, and the 2-year note yield is up three basis points to 4.47%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied to close at another all-time high at 5,667.20 and is still walking the upper Bollinger Band. However, the RSI index is now in a negative divergence because it did not achieve a new high. Also, the S&P 500 futures are lower by 1% to start the day, so the markets might get the pullback we have been looking for today. Potential support is at 5,614.75 and 5,574.57; we feel the latter will hold… Read More
Headline News: Thursday’s inflation report is expected to be the main event for U.S. markets during a busy week that includes the start of the second quarter corporate earnings reporting season, a handful of Treasury debt auctions, and potential developments in the presidential election race. Like all marquee economic releases, the June consumer price index numbers could have serious ramifications for markets. Still, investors will be paying especially close attention this month, as the timing of the Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate cut could hang in the balance. At the very least, a smaller-than-expected rise in inflation could encourage Fed Chair Jerome Powell to more forcefully prime the market for a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting. Still, according to CME Group data, some believe that a sufficiently weak number could even open the door to a rate cut in a few weeks, which futures-market traders have dismissed as extremely unlikely. Meanwhile, a hotter-than-expected reading could stop the stock market rally in its tracks. (Joseph Adinolfi MarketWatch) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied for the third day, closing at 5,567.19, and is now at the upper Bollinger Band. The RSI index closed at 78 and remained in… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 14 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 52 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 105 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The first day of the third quarter features a positive bias in early trading. Pre-open gains in the mega-cap space have contributed to the upside bias. A jump in market rates hasn’t deterred upside early action. The 10-year note yield is up seven basis points to 4.41%, and the 2-year note yield is up three basis points to 4.75%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: After a better-than-expected inflation report, the S&P 500 rallied to a new all-time intraday high at 5,523.64, but the sellers came in and drove the index down to close at 5,460.48. The failure to maintain the breakout shows that the buying momentum is weak due to internal indicators remaining in the overbought zones. The 20-day moving average has raced higher to provide optimal support at 5,408.26, and we continue to believe a test of this level is needed before the S&P 500 can close… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down three points and trading fractionally below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 14 points and trading 0.1% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 100 points and trading 0.2% below fair value. Contracts linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 are lower, while the NASDAQ 100 futures move higher, boosted by ongoing strength in Tech. Treasury yields are moving higher this morning, keeping pressure on equities. The 10-year note yield is up five basis points to 4.29%, and the 2-year note yield is up one basis point to 4.74%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed higher at 5,469.30, forming a three-day base. We believe a test of potential support at 5,402.51 is needed, but continuing the current base for a few more days may allow the overbought condition to be worked off. Also, investors may be waiting for the release of May’s PCE inflation report, which will be reported on Friday morning, to make long-term purchases. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up three points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 29 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 100 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. Early trading has been mixed. Despite a solid run for the major indices this month, neither buyers nor sellers have shown much conviction. The 10-year note yield is up one basis point to 4.27%, and the 2-year note yield is up two basis points to 4.75%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a tight range with massive volume due to a triple witching day on Friday. The RSI index is still in the overbought zone, and the breadth indicators are also overbought. Today’s trading could see some selling come in as traders potentially take profits. There is now possible support at 5,402.51; a test of that level would be constructive for the S&P 500 this week. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 16 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 53 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 154 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. Early trading has a negative bias after yesterday’s rebound left the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite at fresh record highs. Some normal consolidation efforts and pre-open losses in mega-cap stocks have contributed to the early bias. Today’s economic lineup was limited to the NFIB Small Business Optimism survey, which rose to 90.5 in May from 89.7 in April. Wednesday’s calendar features the May Consumer Price Index release and the latest FOMC policy decision. Hesitation ahead of tomorrow’s market-moving events has contributed to this morning’s downside bias. Treasury yields are lower ahead of the aforementioned events. The 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.43%, and the 2-yr note yield is down four basis points to 4.84%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded below support at 5,341.88 but rallied late in the day to close higher at 5,360.79. The RSI index also closed… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down three points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down seven points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 40 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Stock futures indicate a lower open, pressured by a jump in Treasury yields and rising political uncertainty abroad. The 10-year note yield is up three basis points to 4.46%. Major European indices trade lower after weekend elections to the European Parliament, which resulted in increased support for right-leaning parties and French President Macron’s decision to call a snap election for the end of June/early July. Elsewhere, commodity futures are moving higher. WTI crude oil futures are up 1.0% to $76.26/bbl, natural gas futures are up 4.2% to $3.04/mmbtu, and copper futures are up 1.0% to $4.53/lb. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded beneath current support and then tested the high for the year, only to close slightly higher at 5346.99. The potential support at 5,341.88 remains in place, and the 20-day moving average at 5,291.16 would be the next possible support level. Potential resistance… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up two points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 28 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 16 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Equity futures are flattish after yesterday’s solid rally in the stock market. Shares of a large semiconductor company are up nearly 2.0% premarket after topping a $3 trillion market value yesterday, but that hasn’t translated into broad support for equities. There is some hesitation in play ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) expected rate cut announcement at 8:15 ET. Treasury yields were slightly higher ahead of the announcement, keeping equities in check. The 10-year note yield is up two basis points to 4.31%, and the 2-year note yield is up one basis point to 4.74%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied by 1.18% and closed at a new all-time high of 5,354.03. However, the up volume was only 66% of the total volume, and the RSI index did not move to a new high. So, the rally is suspect until there is… Read More
