Headline News: Equity futures point to a subdued start to the week as investors prepare for the unofficial start of the Q3 earnings season, with several major banks scheduled to report results in the coming days. Stocks are coming off a winning week in which broader market participation helped offset weakness in technology stocks, a reversal of the recent trend of narrow market leadership. The Equal-Weight S&P 500 snapped a seven-week losing streak, highlighting the improvement in participation beyond the largest stocks. The AI infrastructure buildout remains in focus this morning, with several notable M&A headlines drawing attention to the space. Meanwhile, crude oil prices are moving higher despite comments from President Trump that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to an “energy ceasefire.” According to Axios, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the agreement was “news to me,” although he indicated that Ukraine would also agree to an energy ceasefire if Russia committed to one. There are no U.S. economic releases remaining today, though this week will feature some key inflation data with the release of the September Consumer Price Index on Wednesday and Producer Price Index on Thursday. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower opening this morning after the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite reached fresh record highs yesterday. Rising Treasury yields and oil prices are creating renewed pressure after stocks received some relief from both fronts to start the week, while mega-cap and technology names are also trading lower in the pre-market. The rebound in oil comes as geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated. Vice President JD Vance said the U.S. remains in discussions with Iranian officials, but that Iran must make meaningful reductions in nuclear enrichment to meet U.S. demands, according to Reuters. The September FOMC Minutes at 2:00 p.m. ET will be the main item on today’s U.S. calendar. Weekly crude oil inventory data are due at 10:30 a.m. ET, followed by August Consumer Credit at 3:00 p.m. ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 gapped higher at the open and closed at a new all-time high of 7,818.93. The RSI and Advance/Decline lines both moved higher in support of the advance; however, both indicators suggest that buying participation has not been widespread during the recent uptrend. Notably, the S&P 500 remains extended, and a few days of consolidation… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher open this morning as stocks look to build upon a solid start to the week. Oil prices and Treasury yields are both moving lower this morning, adding to the constructive backdrop for equities. Crude oil is currently down $2.01 (-2.3%) to $87.42 per barrel amid more favorable reports of increased crude flows out of the Middle East, while the 10-year note yield is down five basis points to 5.26%. While oil prices moved lower yesterday, Treasury yields continued to creep higher. The stock market appeared largely unfazed by the renewed rate pressure, however, as early strength in technology stocks broadened into a solid advance across the wider market as the session progressed. The NASDAQ Composite reached fresh record highs, while the S&P 500 finished less than half a percent below its own record closing high. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied to close at 7,773.95, moving above resistance at 7,771.48. Buying was broad based, while the RSI also rose to 59.00. So far this morning, S&P 500 futures are higher by 0.30%, setting the stage for a possible test of the previous all-time high at… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures are pointing to a modestly lower start this morning as investors return from a week in which elevated Treasury yields and narrow market leadership remained key influences on the broader market. Treasury yields remain near multi-decade highs after their rise drove much of last week’s action, continuing to present a significant headwind for equities. The NASDAQ Composite was the only major average to finish last week slightly higher, as strength in mega-cap and technology stocks continued to prop up the major indices despite weaker participation beneath the surface. That divergence was particularly evident in the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index, which recorded its seventh consecutive losing week, according to FactSet. Corporate news is relatively quiet to begin the week, leaving the broader macro backdrop as the primary focus in early trading. On the energy front, Bloomberg reported that Iran increased attacks on ships just as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returned to pre-war levels, though crude oil is moving modestly lower this morning. Separately, OPEC members reaffirmed their commitment to market stability. The September ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 10:00 ET is the main item on today’s U.S. economic calendar, preceded by the final S&P Global… Read More
Headline News: Consumer prices posted a smaller than expected increase from a year ago, according to the Federal Reserve’s primary inflation gauge, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. The personal consumption expenditures price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.3% for the month, putting the 12-month gain at 3.4%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for increases of 0.3% and 3.7% respectively. Excluding food and energy, PCE posted a 0.2% increase that put the annual core level at 3%. The respective forecasts were for 0.3% and 3.3%. Though the Fed officially follows the headline PCE number, officials generally consider core a better gauge of longer-term trends. While the annual increases were less than expected, they came as the Bureau of Economic Analysis adjusted the way it computes several components of the index. It was not immediately clear what impact the revisions had on the final numbers. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off, closing at 7,670.84 after briefly testing and holding the 50-day moving average at 7,645.16. The index also closed above its 20-day moving average, suggesting buyers remain active at these levels. However, the Advance/Decline line and RSI both moved lower, indicating… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a modestly higher opening this morning as some of Monday’s pressure from crude oil and Treasury yields eases. The positive bias comes after the major averages started the week with sizable losses amid volatility in both markets, with Treasury yields remaining particularly elevated even after crude oil reversed most of an early surge. Oil prices are pulling back this morning alongside signs that Middle Eastern crude flows are recovering despite the ongoing conflict. Middle Eastern crude exports have risen to around their highest level since the Iran war began, as the U.S. Navy and Gulf producers have become more effective at keeping shipments moving through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes, weakening Iran’s leverage over the waterway, according to The Wall Street Journal. Treasury yields are also easing from Monday’s elevated levels, providing some relief for equities. Technology and semiconductor stocks, which were notable sources of weakness in yesterday’s session, are poised for a rebound at the open as the broader market attempts to recover from Monday’s decline. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 7,683.69, just above its 20-day moving average of 7,671.07. The… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower opening as Treasury yields and oil prices continue to move higher this morning. Crude oil is up $1.53 (+1.7%) to $93.70 per barrel as this week’s UN session has failed to produce any notable headlines of progress between the U.S. and Iran. Treasury yields are soaring to multi-year highs in the wake of a big backup in yields yesterday that pushed stocks lower. Additionally, the market’s expectations of another rate hike continue to increase, with New York Fed President John Williams (voting FOMC member) saying it is reasonable to expect another rate increase this year. The CME FedWatch tool now assigns a 70.9% probability to a rate hike at the October FOMC meeting. On the trade front, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. & China agreed to extend the trade truce until January 10, according to Fox News. There are several economic data releases ahead of the open. Initial and continuing jobless claims and the Q2 current account balance are due at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by August new home sales at 10:00 a.m. ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 7,706.03… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a slightly lower opening this morning following Tuesday’s mixed session, with relatively little in the way of new developments overnight to provide a clear directional catalyst. Crude oil is modestly higher after settling lower yesterday as investors continue to monitor developments surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. and Iran held talks yesterday, with Iran presenting conditions for reopening the strait that reportedly include lifting the U.S. naval blockade, releasing frozen Iranian assets, and ending the war on all fronts, according to Axios. AI also remains in focus ahead of President Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The two leaders have pushed back against slowing AI development, even as the U.S. and China explore potential areas of cooperation surrounding risks from increasingly capable AI models. For now, however, neither development has produced a significant shift in the market backdrop, leaving equity futures modestly lower ahead of the open. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a tight range yesterday and closed slightly lower at 7,764.64. The RSI also moved sideways. That kind of consolidation is common after a sharp rally. The index closed just below… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a firmly higher opening this morning as oil prices and Treasury yields retreat to start the week, with crude oil down roughly 2.5% to under $98 per barrel and the 10-year note yield down to 4.95%. The market has been largely driven by oil and yields, as well as the performance of AI-related stocks in recent sessions, driving some choppy action last week that saw the Nasdaq Composite rise by 0.7%, while the DJIA slid 1.7%, its worst week since March. Those themes remain in focus following last week’s FOMC rate hike, with the simultaneous pullback in oil and Treasury yields providing a favorable backdrop for equities this morning. On the geopolitical front, President Trump threatened another attack on Iran but said he remains open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian during this week’s United Nations General Assembly, according to CNBC. The potential for diplomacy comes as U.S.-Iran tensions remain an important influence on oil markets. Strength is also extending to cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin crossing the $85,000 mark to reach its best level since January. The economic data calendar is relatively light this week following last week’s Fed decision, although President Trump and Chinese… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher opening this morning, with mega-cap and semiconductor stocks leading the early advance following yesterday’s post-FOMC retreat. Crude oil is moving lower for the second consecutive session, with WTI crude down $2.47 (-2.4%) to $99.96 per barrel. The decline comes as Axios reports that President Trump is expected to meet with Gulf leaders next week to discuss the next steps in the conflict with Iran. Stocks finished mostly lower yesterday after an initially positive session reversed during Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference. The FOMC’s widely anticipated 25-basis-point rate hike generated little immediate reaction, but stocks turned lower and Treasury yields rose as Mr. Warsh emphasized that inflation remains too high, reinforcing expectations that additional policy tightening could follow. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off to the support level at 7,517.12, where buyers stepped in and helped the index recover to close at 7,551.81. Earlier in the session, the index tested the 50-day moving average at 7,612.00, but sellers emerged at that level. This morning, S&P 500 futures are higher by 1.25%, suggesting investors were encouraged by the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point interest-rate increase and its… Read More
