Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up ten points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 28 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 50 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Early trading has been muted after yesterday’s robust rally in the major indices. Contracts tied to the NASDAQ 100, S&P 500, and Dow industrials are slightly higher, but moves are limited. Ongoing uncertainty around the tariff announcements on April 2 has dampened investor sentiment. This morning, there’s also some potentially market-moving data to digest. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for March and the New Home Sales report for February are released at 10:00 ET. Treasuries have seen a continuation of yesterday’s selling. The 10-year yield is up three basis points to 4.36%, and the 2-year yield is up one basis point to 4.04%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied sharply, closing at 5,767.57—above the critical 200-day moving average of 5,752.30. Up volume accounted for 77% of total trading volume, indicating strong buying interest. The only minor concern was that the RSI index… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 29 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 115 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 160 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. Contracts linked to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials are higher after a selloff on Monday. The market is trying to stabilize a little after recent big losses, but early upside moves are relatively limited. Treasuries are seeing some selling after big gains amid the stock market’s fallout. The 10-yr yield is up two basis points to 4.23%, and the 2-yr yield is up one basis point to 3.91%. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey dropped to 100.7 in February from 102.8. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 experienced a sharp sell-off, dropping 2.70% to close at 5,614.56. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) dipped into oversold territory, ending at 29.92. Additionally, the index closed below the lower Bollinger Band, reinforcing an oversold signal. Trading volume reached 4,323,367,936, but only 77% of it was on the downside, indicating that selling pressure has not… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 70 points and are trading 1.2% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 282 points and are trading 1.4% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 450 points and are trading 1.1% below fair value. Early trading features a negative bias. Contracts tied to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials are lower after Friday’s higher finish in major indices. Treasury yields are also lower, reflecting some safe-haven trading after President Trump hinted at the possibility of a recession in a Fox News interview, saying the US economy will undergo a “period of transition.” The 10-year yield is down eight basis points to 4.24%, and the 2-year yield is down five basis points to 3.95%. There is no US economic data of note today. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 traded within a wide range on Friday before closing higher at 5,770.20. Throughout the session, the index tested key support at 5,651.37 and resistance at 5,783.24, ultimately finishing above the 200-day moving average of 5,733.10. However, as of this morning, S&P 500 futures are down 1.45% amid ongoing tariff… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 32 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 139 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 140 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. Contracts linked to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials are lower. The negative bias is a continuation of yesterday’s retreat. Buying has also continued in the Treasury market. The 10-yr yield is down three basis points to 4.15%. Focus remains on the tariff front after President Trump imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. Canada announced retaliatory actions, including 25% tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods immediately. Mexico hasn’t announced actions yet, but previously vowed retaliation. Tariffs on Chinese imports increased to 20% from 10%, and China also announced retaliatory actions, including additional 10% and 15% tariffs on US agricultural products beginning March 10. Market participants are now waiting for President Trump’s State of the Union address today at 9:00 p.m. ET. There’s also some market-moving data later in the week, capped off by the February Employment Situation report on Friday. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director,… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 41 points and trading 0.7% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 188 points and are trading 0.9% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 132 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. There is still plenty of growth angst amid tariff talks and efforts to cut government spending, yet the early focus appears to be the positive price action in equities. However, today’s key for market sentiment won’t be how the market opens but how it closes. Soon enough, attention will shift to the slate of economic data today, which includes the second estimate for Q4 GDP at 8:30 a.m. ET, the weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims report at 8:30 a.m. ET, the January Durable Goods Orders report at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the January Pending Home Sales report at 10:00 a.m. ET. The 2-year note yield is up three basis points to 4.10%, and the 10-year note yield is up five basis points to 4.30%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.2% to 106.59. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied to the 50-day moving… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 12 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 45 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 128 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. Contracts tied to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials are lower, reflecting some regular profit-taking interest after another record high for the S&P 500 yesterday. Since yesterday’s close, some earnings results garnered negative responses, contributing to the downside bias. Treasury yields are slightly lower, but that hasn’t translated into support for equities. The 10-yr yield is down four basis points to 4.50%, and the 2-yr yield is down two basis points to 4.25%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high of 6,144.15. However, it’s worth noting that up volume accounted for only 43% of the total trading volume, indicating a lack of strong buying conviction. Additionally, the RSI index failed to reach a new high and continues to show negative divergence, which could signal waning momentum. Key support remains at 6,128.18, and we maintain the view that if… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down six points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 40 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 115 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. There’s not a lot of conviction in early trading after yesterday’s positive finish. Pre-open declines in the mega cap space have contributed to modest downside moves in futures linked to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials, along with negative responses to some earnings news. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: It looks like the S&P 500 is gaining strong momentum, breaking past resistance at 6,099.97 and closing at 6,115.07. This suggests bullish sentiment, with the next major resistance level being the all-time high at 6,128.18. Given the upcoming three-day weekend, trading activity might be muted today, possibly leading to consolidation before another push higher next week. Meanwhile, the ten-year Treasury yield is moving lower, closing at 4.54% and staying within the 4.49%-4.67% range. This could be supportive of equities, as lower yields typically make stocks more attractive compared to bonds. Going forward, key factors to watch… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 15 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 99 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 84 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. Early trading features a negative bias amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs. President Trump formally imposed previously announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Treasury yields are higher, adding to the pressure on equities. The 10-yr yield is up five basis points to 4.54%, and the 2-yr yield is up two basis points to 4.29%. Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony before Congress begins today. The NFIB Small Business Optimism survey dropped to 102.8 in January from 105.1 in December. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded within a narrow range, maintaining its position in the middle of the 6,017.31 to 6,099.97 trading range. As investors await the release of tomorrow morning’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, we anticipate that trading activity will mirror today’s cautious approach. Additionally, a notable development is the 20-day moving average crossing above the 50-day moving average. This bullish signal… Read More
Private sector companies added more jobs than expected in January, furthering the case for a stable labor market that allows the Federal Reserve time as it contemplates its next policy move, ADP reported Wednesday.
The payrolls processing firm said companies created a net 183,000 jobs in the month, slightly more than the 176,000 in December, a number that was revised sharply upward from the initial figure of 122,000. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a gain of 150,000.
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are flat and are trading in line with fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 60 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 19 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Early trading features mixed action. Contracts linked to the NASDAQ 100 are higher, while futures tied to the S&P 500 and Dow industrials are little changed. Participants are in wait-and-see mode ahead of earnings news from some of the world’s largest companies after today’s close. The FOMC decision is at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. The committee is expected to keep the target range for the fed fund rate at 4.25-4.50%, so more attention will be paid to Fed Chair Powell’s tone and remarks. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied for the second day, closing at 6.067.70, above the resistance level of 6,053.58. The index is higher by 1.8% since touching the 20-day moving average on Monday and is now in a position to gain back all the losses from Monday’s selloff. However, the RSI index… Read More
