Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher opening to the holiday-abbreviated week as tech stocks advance in the premarket after a volatile previous week. The S&P 500 lost 2% last week as many of the market’s largest components struggled against a backdrop of heightened semiconductor weakness, though the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index advanced 1.6% as investors rotated into other pockets of the market. On the geopolitical front, the U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend but have agreed to refrain from more strikes ahead of a fresh round of talks set to take place on Tuesday. This week will be particularly light on the earnings front, though there are a handful of S&P 500 names set to report, including a beleaguered athletic apparel giant scheduled to report tomorrow. There will be a few economic data releases of note throughout the week, though today’s calendar is empty. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 spent most of the trading session under pressure before a late-day rally lifted the index to a close of 7,354.02, just below the 50-day moving average at 7,363.43. The RSI remained below the key 50 level, reflecting weak momentum,… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower opening as semiconductor stocks move sharply lower in the premarket. The group faced choppy action yesterday following a blowout earnings release from a large company, but ended the session with solid gains. That strength was not evident at the index level, as heightened demand for memory caused several “magnificent seven” companies to raise prices, setting up another day of weakness across mega-cap tech. This morning, chipmakers are giving back their gains after reports that OpenAI may delay its IPO to 2027 due to recent volatility across other AI-related names. Additionally, Axios reports that the Trump administration has asked OpenAI to delay the release of its latest model due to security concerns. Outside of the tech space, oil prices continue to retreat, and futures linked to the DJIA hold the narrowest losses, suggesting another day of rotation into the broader market could be in store. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 7,357.49, finishing just above its 50-day moving average at 7,356.18. The RSI remained below the key 50 level, ending the session at 45.30, reflecting continued weak momentum. However, the Advance/Decline line turned higher,… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a flattish opening this morning as investors monitor mostly optimistic updates on negotiations between the U.S. and Iran coming off the long holiday weekend. The two sides signed a 60-day memorandum of understanding last week, pushing oil prices sharply lower and helping the major averages recover from a post-FOMC meeting sell-off to finish higher for the week. The FOMC kept rates unchanged but struck a hawkish tone, which bumped up market expectations and the timeline for a rate hike. Inflation readings will come fully into focus later in the week with Thursday’s release of the May Personal Income and Spending Report, which includes the PCE Price Index (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%), the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Meanwhile, economic data is on the lighter side today. Earnings will also be lighter throughout the week, with just a handful of S&P 500 names set to report. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a relatively tight range on Monday, closing modestly higher at 7,500.58. More importantly, the index managed to finish back above its 20-day moving average at 7,485.26, recovering from the heavy selling pressure seen in the prior session.… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher opening this morning as the market looks to rebound from yesterday’s selloff that followed the June FOMC meeting. The FOMC left rates unchanged, but analysts are referring to the decision as a “hawkish pause” as the dot plot showed nearly half of participants expecting a rate hike by year’s end, while inflation estimates increased. Stocks are supported by retreating oil prices this morning after President Trump officially signed the 60-day memorandum of understanding with Iran, which was touted as immediately reopening the Strait of Hormuz while lifting Iran’s naval blockade. Elsewhere, chipmaker stocks (which were largely resilient to yesterday’s selloff) are posting solid gains in the premarket. The market has several economic data releases on the calendar this morning, including the weekly initial jobless claims report (Briefing.com consensus 226,000). As a reminder, this will be the stock market’s last session of the week, as the market will be closed for the Juneteenth holiday tomorrow. (Michael Gibbs,_Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off sharply following the Federal Reserve meeting, closing at 7,420.10. Selling pressure was broad-based, with down volume reaching 78% of total volume, a sign that institutional… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a mixed opening this morning after the major averages finished mostly lower in yesterday’s action. Tech stocks and, in particular, semiconductors pulled back after a multiple-session rally, though the DJIA notched fresh record highs amid another retreat in oil prices ahead of the U.S.-Iran signing of a memorandum of understanding to end the conflict. Crude oil is modestly higher this morning after President Trump threatened renewed military action against Iran at the G7 conference if he does not like the agreement or if Iran “does not behave.” Meanwhile, chipmakers are poised to rebound from yesterday’s weakness. Today’s session will feature the June FOMC meeting, which will be the first with new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the helm. While the market has not expected a move in rates at this meeting for some time, Warsh’s tone at the press conference will be closely watched, especially given that the war in Iran has its most tangible off-ramp yet. On the data front, the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index decreased 3.8%, from a prior increase of 10.8%. (Michael Gibbs,_Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed slightly lower at 7,511.35, falling just below… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a modestly higher opening after stocks rallied yesterday in response to headlines of a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran that sent oil prices sharply lower. Oil continues to decline this morning, approaching the $ 78-per-barrel mark, though stocks seem to be taking a breather after yesterday’s advance. The rally resulted in fresh record highs for the DJIA. Support was relatively broad, and mega-cap stocks provided solid leadership. The market’s newest mega-cap stock, a large Communication Services company, jumped nearly 20% yesterday and is moving higher again in the premarket ahead of its third trading day. On the data front, the market has several economic releases slated for this morning, including May housing starts (Briefing.com consensus: 1.440 million) and building permits (Briefing.com consensus: 1.410 million). (Michael Gibbs,_Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 gapped sharply higher, breaking through three key resistance levels and closing at 7,554.29. The rally was supported by improving market internals, with the RSI moving higher and the Advance/Decline Line closing at a new high, confirming broad participation in the advance. The one cautionary signal was that up volume accounted for only 53% of total volume, indicating… Read More
Headline News: Wholesale prices rose less than expected in May, indicating that pipeline inflationary pressures are percolating higher, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. The producer price index, a measure of final demand costs, increased seasonally adjusted 1.1% on the month, putting the 12-month wholesale inflation rate at 6.5%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.7% monthly move. The annual headline inflation rate was the highest since November 2022. However, excluding food and energy, so-called core PPI accelerated 0.4%, compared to the consensus view of 0.5%, indicating that rising fuel prices are causing much of the inflationary burden. (Jeff Cox, CNBC) Markets: The S&P 500 declined for a fourth consecutive session, closing at 7,266.99 and breaking below the key support level at 7,333.68. Market internals weakened as the RSI fell below 50 and the Advance/Decline line continued to decline, confirming the recent deterioration in breadth. Despite the selloff, down volume represented just 67% of total trading volume, suggesting that investors have not yet reached a capitulation point where panic selling typically signals a short-term market bottom. This morning, a higher-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) report and President Trump’s comments regarding a potential escalation of… Read More
Headline News: Inflation accelerated in May as rising energy costs weighed on consumers, though underlying pressures were less intense. The consumer price index, a broad gauge of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, rose at a seasonally adjusted 0.5% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 4.2%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Both numbers were in line with the Dow Jones consensus. Inflation climbed above 4% for the first time in three years, though the increase met expectations amid concerns over how much the surge in energy prices would impact the economy. The level was the highest since April 2023 and above the 3.8% level from April. However, stripping out volatile food and energy prices, the so-called core CPI accelerated 0.2% for the month and 2.9% from a year ago. While the annual rate was in line with the forecast, the monthly gain was below the 0.3% estimate. (Jeff Cox, CNBC) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a volatile range on Tuesday, testing resistance at its 20-day moving average and slipping below the key support level of 7,333.68. Buyers stepped in near the session lows, allowing the index to recover and close at… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower opening this morning after the major averages set fresh record highs in Monday’s action. Leadership was narrowly concentrated across tech names, while the broader market moved lower after reports that Iran stopped messaging the U.S. in protest of Israel’s strikes in Lebanon. Axios reports that President Trump lashed out at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over Israel’s war in Lebanon, though the current geopolitical situation remains relatively unchanged from yesterday. Meanwhile, tech names are poised to extend recent gains, with a technology hardware company up big in premarket trading, being the latest AI-infrastructure name to rocket higher after a blowout earnings report. On the data front, the market will receive the April JOLTS job openings report at 10:00 a.m. (Michael Gibbs,_Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at another record high, finishing the session at 7,599.96 as enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence continues to fuel the rally. There appears to be a growing element of “fear of missing out” (FOMO) buying, supported by a series of strong earnings reports from technology companies benefiting from the AI boom. This morning, S&P 500 futures are lower by 0.16% as investors await… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher opening as oil prices and Treasury yields move modestly lower this morning. Stocks are coming off a weak session, which was the third consecutive lower finish for the S&P 500. Mega-cap and other growth stocks lagged, though an intraday rebound across semiconductor names helped the major averages improve considerably from session lows. The semiconductor cohort will garner additional attention today as investors anticipate the world’s largest company’s earnings release after the close. President Trump said yesterday that he hopes the Iran war ends “very quickly”, according to The Hill, though reports suggest the U.S. and Iran remain far apart on negotiations. Still, crude oil is currently down $1.85 (-1.8%) to $102.30 per barrel. Today will once again be light on data, though the market will receive the April FOMC meeting minutes this afternoon. The MBA Mortgage Applications Index for the week ended May 16 decreased 2.3%, from a prior increase of 1.7%. The (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off for the third day in a row, closing at 7,272.58. The RSI and the Advance/Decline Line both moved lower, confirming the selling pressure. The 20-day moving average… Read More
