Headline News: Private U.S. companies added jobs at a slightly slower-than-expected pace in August, with gains concentrated heavily in health care and a few other industries, ADP reported Wednesday. The payrolls processing firm said firms added 38,000 workers, fewer than the upwardly revised 46,000 in July and below the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 47,000. Though job creation held positive, August was the smallest gain since January and reflective of a broader slowdown in the labor market. Moreover, most of the jobs came from three sectors, with multiple others showing declines. Education and health services added 45,000 to lead all categories, with the latter group being at the forefront of employment growth. Leisure and hospitality added 16,000 positions an construction was up 12,000. Outside of that, though, there were few growth areas. Manufacturing lost 17,000 jobs, professional and business services was off 16,000 and both the natural resources and mining as well as trade, transportation and utilities reported declines of 5,000. (Jeff cox, CNBC) Markets: The S&P 500 gapped lower at the open, and sellers remained in control throughout the session as the index closed sharply lower at 7,631.47. The index is now just above potential support at… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower open this morning as the market navigates rising global bond yields and another spike in oil prices. The upward pressure on yields has resulted in broad weakness across overseas equity markets. Another increase in the price of oil has contributed to the selling after reports of cargo ships being attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, as crude oil climbs $2.03 (+2.4%) to $87.79 per barrel. The major averages finished August with solid gains, though action was choppy as geopolitical developments and sharp swings in technology stocks repeatedly influenced market direction. Those same themes remain in focus to September begins, with renewed tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz pushing oil prices higher while rising global bond yields provide an additional headwind for equities. On the data front, the August ISM Manufacturing Index and July JOLTS report are due at 10:00 a.m. ET, along with July construction spending, and should help shape the market’s view of economic growth and labor demand. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 7,686.14 and is now solidly below its 20-day moving average at 7,716.86. The next potential support level remains… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher opening this morning as stocks look to bounce back from a mostly lower finish yesterday, as semiconductor stocks once again weighed against relative strength in the broader market. The momentum trade is showing signs of improvement in the premarket this morning despite a lack of notable catalysts, as the world’s largest semiconductor company’s earnings loom after the close tomorrow. On the macro front, oil is moving firmly lower again today after yesterday’s sanction announcement against Iran, while Treasury yields also continue to move lower following the U.S. Treasury’s announcement of increased buybacks. The market is set to receive the August consumer confidence reading and July new home sales data at 10:00 a.m. ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 7,652.86 after trading in a tight range and is now slightly below the 20-day moving average at 7,656.41. The index remained above potential support at 7,620.70, while the RSI is threatening to move below the key 50 level, suggesting that short-term momentum has weakened. However, S&P 500 futures are higher by 0.45% this morning, indicating buyers may regain some control at the open. Investors are… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower opening as the market navigates several notable developments this morning. Oil is moving lower after last week’s surge, providing some reprieve to the broader market ahead of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s 1:00 p.m. ET press conference, at which he will reveal economic sanctions against Iran. On a related note, CNN reports the U.S. Navy is escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz at night with their transponders off, and Oil traffic could be double what Wall Street analysts and tracking sites suggest. Treasury yields are moving modestly lower with oil this morning, though elevated yields, particularly in longer-dated Treasuries, continue to be a headwind for the market. CNBC reports that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent could tap into Treasury’s $1 trillion General Account to buy back bonds. Meanwhile, weakness across semiconductor components continues to limit growth at the index level, with the world’s largest semiconductor company set to release its earnings Wednesday after the close. There is no economic data of note on the calendar today, but the market will receive an important inflation reading with the July Personal Income and Spending Report on Wednesday. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets:… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower opening this morning after the major averages finished with modest gains yesterday, supported by broad strength. The market saw some relief in long-dated Treasury yields after the Treasury announced it would increase long-end liquidity buybacks by at least double. That helped offset another bounce in oil prices, though rising crude is weighing on the market this morning. Crude oil is currently up $2.85 (+3.4%) to $87.24 per barrel after President Trump said on Truth Social that Iran will be hit with “the most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country.” Separately, semiconductor stocks, which limited gains at the index level yesterday, continue to move lower in the premarket this morning. Today’s data slate will include the release of Weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 206,000; prior 209,000), Continuing Claims (prior 1.777 mln), and August Philadelphia Fed Survey (Briefing.com consensus 25.0; prior 41.4) at 8:30 ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at 7,707.98 after testing and failing to break through the 10-day moving average at 7,742.70. So far this morning, S&P 500 futures are lower by 0.56% as U.S. Treasury yields are once again moving higher… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower open this morning as oil prices and Treasury yields rise amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. CNBC reports that a ship was attacked while traversing the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump has ruled out extending a ceasefire with Iran. Rising oil prices contributed to the lower finish of the major averages yesterday, with stocks steadily retreating through the afternoon as crude surged. Semiconductor stocks, which provided an important counterweight to the broad weakness and helped limit losses at the index level, are moving firmly lower in the premarket. A small batch of earnings and relatively quiet corporate news flow largely keeps the market focused on macro pressures. Several economic data releases are on the calendar this morning, including July Housing Starts (Briefing.com consensus 1.360 million) and Building Permits (Briefing.com consensus 1.390 million). (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 7,745.06, and so far this morning, S&P 500 futures are lower by 0.48%. The recent selling has been attributed to the global bond selloff, which has pushed the yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury to 5.32%, a 29-year high. Investors continue to demand higher… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a mostly higher open this morning as the stock market looks to kick off a week that could be relatively devoid of market-moving catalysts. The S&P 500 is set to open just above its baseline after a relatively quiet previous week, though the index did set new record highs and extended its weekly winning streak to three weeks. A strong Q2 earnings season continues to wind down, though a host of notable retailer names are set to report results this week. On the geopolitical front, oil is flat as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is set to expire today. CNBC reports that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains exceptionally low. Stocks weathered higher oil prices last week, with some relief coming from easing expectations of Fed tightening after several tame inflation readings. Only a few data points are on the calendar this morning (none of which are typically market movers), kicking off a relatively quiet week of releases. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a tight range, closing at 7,785.76 and just below the all-time high of 7,816.70. The index has now tested this level twice, potentially… Read More
Headline News: Wholesale costs for goods and services were flat in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday in the latest positive sign for inflation. The producer price index, a measure of underlying inflation pressures, was unchanged for the month, below the 0.2% Dow Jones consensus estimate and after falling 0.1% in June. The June figure was revised from a previously reported decline of 0.3%. Excluding food and energy, core PPI rose 0.2%, against the forecast for a 0.3% gain. Core PPI excluding trade services increased 0.4%. On an annual basis, headline PPI increased 4.7% for the all-items index and 4.2% for core, according to unadjusted figures. The report follows several other indicators telling a similar story – that after a ramp-up in inflation earlier this year fueled by the Iran war and President Donald Trump’s tariffs, the rate of price increases is beginning to ease. (Jeff Cox, CNBC) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in another tight range and closed slightly lower at 7,748.50. The July CPI report came in relatively tame and did not prove to be the market mover we had expected. The index continues to form a tight base and remains well positioned to test the… Read More
Headline News: A key inflation reading Wednesday showed prices moderating across a range of goods and services, possibly taking the urgency out of an imminent interest rate hike. The consumer price index, part of the Federal Reserve’s inflation dashboard, showed a seasonally adjusted increase of 0.1% during July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Excluding food and energy, so-called core CPI rose 0.2%. On an annual basis, the inflation rates were 3.4% and 2.5%. All of the readings were in line with the Dow Jones consensus forecasts. Though the levels held well above the Fed’s 2% target, the tame monthly readings, coupled with similarly moderate levels in June, indicate that the energy-fueled burst earlier in the year is easing. (Jeff Cox, CNBC) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 7,728.20 after trading in a tight range throughout the day. The index has formed a small base at these levels and appears positioned to test the all-time high at 7,793.68. The July CPI report was released this morning in line with expectations, helping ease concerns about additional monetary tightening. The report could take some pressure off the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates later this year, which has helped… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a flattish opening amid a relatively quiet morning for the stock market. There are no economic data releases on the calendar, and this week’s slate of earnings releases is just a fraction of the previous several weeks. Q2 earnings season has largely exceeded expectations, with strong results (particularly across some mega-cap tech names) contributing to the most recent run to record highs. Last week was especially productive for equities, with the major averages all finishing with weekly gains of 3% or wider and the S&P 500 and DJIA notching record highs throughout the week. This week’s primary catalyst comes in the form of the July Consumer Price Index Wednesday morning, with a soft July employment report last week increasing the market’s expectations that the Fed may leave rates unchanged at the next meeting. Additionally, investors will continue to monitor developments on the geopolitical front. President Trump said in an interview that he plans to take a “low-key” approach to Iran, favoring increased economic pressure over additional military strikes, according to Axios. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed higher at 7,757.64 and remained near the upper Bollinger Band. The… Read More
