No wonder Memorial Day saw a bunch of folks frolicking on the shores of Lake of The Ozarks.
By every account, comparing predictions, projected infection rates, hospital usage, and deaths associated with the COVID virus to the actual cases convince me that we may have wildly overreacted to this virus. To wit, “The COVID-19 death risk in people <65 years old (younger than 65) during the period of fatalities from the epidemic was equivalent to the death risk from driving between 13 and 101 miles per day…”*, Well then, closing down the country, taking on a couple of more trillion in debt was probably wise. Oopsey Daisy….
Professor Spiegelhalter’s chart provides yet another view of reality: And, seems to confirm the research referenced in this message about the real risk of the disease – it’s about the same as getting on with your life if you are younger than 65 years old and slightly worse if you are older than 65 if exhibiting an underlying condition. Worldmeter** offers a fairly comprehensive array of statistics regarding the virus – it may be worth the reader’s time to review this, and based on your profile, determine your risks associated with contracting the disease.
As measured by the NASDAQ composite and Standards & Poors 500, stock prices have been indicating the mistake of closing down our economy since about March 23rd. As I pen, this sentence, NASDAQ is up about 41%, the S&P 500, up around 38%. The aggregate of all investors represented by the markets knew. “The recovery is going to be much quicker than anticipated because the disease is becoming a non-event.” Now we know.
Sweden’s approach may offer an example of what we can do; they informed it’s populace on the risks and made recommendations to it’s elderly, resulting in only one lockdown – no gathering of more than 50 persons.
Stay healthy, stay safe, and remember – if you get infected, it will most likely not make a difference in your life span.
Carlos Dominguez – CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™, Portfolio Manager, RJFS
*Stanford Prevention Research Center, Department of Medicine, and Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Stanford University School of Medicine (Dr. Ioannidis), Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS), Stanford, California, USA (Dr. Ioannidis and Dr. Axfors), Department Women’s and Children’sn’s Health, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden (Dr. Axfors), and Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California, USA (Dr. Contopoulos-Ioannidis)
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