How do you look at our world, your world? Did you happen to notice what occurred right in the middle of the most recent noise and turmoil? For example, the uncertainty caused by The Federal Reserve’s Jerome Powell comments, “the economy faces potentially significant long-term damage from higher unemployment and a wave of small business failures.” And, the fear caused by the misinformation regarding the COVID 2nd Wave, to the turmoil caused by rioting and destruction on big city streets: Did you happen to notice that Nasdaq Composite reached an all-time high? A friend of mine many years ago reminded me that once it is in print, or once you’ve watched it on the telly, it’s in the past. Equity markets, investors, that is, look forward. That is why Equity markets are “Leading Indicators,” portenders of the future. To what future are equity markets hinting? The Institute For Supply Management (ISM) provides accurate and reliable, my opinion, manufacturing (PMI), and non-manufacturing (NMI) monthly economic activity. The decline is over, it appears, based on the most recent reports. For example, “The May PMI® registered 43.1 percent… This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy after April’s contraction, ….” May’s NMI, although showing… Read More
What? The news is alive with an intensive variety of predictions, forecasts, and prognostications. Just like they were at the start of the epidemic. Most, if not all, of the disease’s models, turned out wrong, as you also know. Now the discussion is turning; I believe it’s becoming about the economy and stock prices. You may enjoy an example of past forecasts and predictions as a precursor of some of the nonsense you’re likely to hear, are you ready? Here we go…. “You’ll never make any money out of children’s book.” – advice to JK Rowling from the editor at Bloomsbury Books, 1996. “It will be years – not in my time – before a woman will become prime minister.” – Margaret Thatcher, circa 1970 “There is practically no chance communication space satellites will be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television, or radio service inside the United States.” – FCC Commissioner, 1961 “Space travel is utter bilge” – Richard Van Der Riet Woolley, Astronomer Royal, 1956 “You better get secretarial work or get married.” – Emmeline Snively was advising Marilyn Monroe in 1944. “Atomic energy might be as good as our present-day explosives, but it is unlikely to produce anything… Read More
No wonder Memorial Day saw a bunch of folks frolicking on the shores of Lake of The Ozarks. By every account, comparing predictions, projected infection rates, hospital usage, and deaths associated with the COVID virus to the actual cases convince me that we may have wildly overreacted to this virus. To wit, “The COVID-19 death risk in people <65 years old (younger than 65) during the period of fatalities from the epidemic was equivalent to the death risk from driving between 13 and 101 miles per day…”*, Well then, closing down the country, taking on a couple of more trillion in debt was probably wise. Oopsey Daisy…. Professor Spiegelhalter’s chart provides yet another view of reality: And, seems to confirm the research referenced in this message about the real risk of the disease – it’s about the same as getting on with your life if you are younger than 65 years old and slightly worse if you are older than 65 if exhibiting an underlying condition. Worldmeter** offers a fairly comprehensive array of statistics regarding the virus – it may be worth the reader’s time to review this, and based on your profile, determine your risks associated with contracting the… Read More
The word hero gets thrown out a lot in our society, and it can mean different things to different people. The meaning has for sure changed for me since I was a younger man, and so have the people that I call a hero. Please, allow me to explain: The first hero for me that I remember was Pete Rose in 1975. The Cincinnati Reds won the World Series, and Pete Rose was the MVP. I watched the games with my dad, who yelled at the TV just like I do now. Then, around 1977, my dad got me into wraslin! Not wrestling, but wraslin, the kind where they can stomp on your neck and not kill you type. Mr. Wrestler II became my hero. Boy, did I love that guy as a kid. Well, still do! At the same time, Scott Woerner was a superstar for the UGA football team. He came from my high school, Jonesboro, where my dad was a principal. In 1978 Scott was back to return a punt against the bumblebees from Georgia Tech. He called for a fair catch, but they hit him anyway. He was bleeding, and when I saw that,… Read More
When the medicine, shutting down our economy, is worse than the cure, alternatives surface. For now, 1st quarter Gross Domestic Product, as reported by BEA, decreased at an annual rate of -4.8%. As I pen this, the Standards & Poors 500 index is up approximately 2.5% and up over 31% from its low on March 23rd. According to earnings data from S&P Dow Jones Indices, corporate earnings are estimated to be approximately 22% lower than in 2019. Is the worse over? Some of the most recent research on how the disease spreads is revealing: Maria Van Kerkhove (WHO) contends after her study in Wuhan that the disease spread in close family and institutional proximity, not casual interaction Hendrik Streeck, the virologist researching Germany’s Heinsberg district, saw little evidence of contracting the disease through shopping or touching contaminated surfaces. China – in a study of 318 clusters, over a thousand patients, 80% were contaminated in the home versus only 34% in public transportation. If we assume the worst-case scenario, as postulated by Avik Roy: Infection will not provide lasting immunity. Treatment for the infected will not materialize. Universal testing will not be readily available, and a vaccine will not develop. Then… Read More
Unfortunately, we live in a world that we need to constantly protect ourselves and our families from people that are trying to take advantage of us and others. Please beware from the known COVID-19 scams. Economic Income Payments: There are fraudsters trying to trick people into giving them their financial information by reaching out via phone call, email or text message with information about their stimulus check. Please do not respond to anyone reaching out to you about your stimulus check; please call the IRS if you believe someone is trying to reach you in good order. Some fraudsters are asking to verify your banking information over the phone or asking you to send your banking information for early payment. If you notice someone is calling about your “stimulus check or payment” beware; the property term is Economic Income Payment. Pandemic-Related Phishing Attempts Pandemic related email scams are now the highest number of attacks related to one issue. Fraudsters are sending emails acting as they are members of the WHO (World Health Organization), the CDC and the IRS trying to obtain secure information from Americans. Red flags to watch for include links for safety tips, links to view cases in… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures are set to open higher at the end of a volatile week of trading. Analyst expect a 14.1% decline in corporate Q1 earnings after mixed results from banks and consumer discretionary firms so far. President Trump is set to sign the $484 billion coronavirus relief bill after it passed the House last night. Markets: The S&P 500 traded above resistance at2825.60 and the 50-day moving average at 2818.56 only to close lower at 2797.80. The index has failed in this price range four times, but that could lead to fewer sellers lurking at the if there is another attempt to breakout. Until then, the base building is continuing, which would be helpful to set up a successful breakout in the future. Potential support remains at 2711.33, but we do not see that level being tested today. We are currently long-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJ Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks.Ðnvesting always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and futures trading could present additional risk based on underlying commodities… Read More
There were several items that went into the CARES Act, but there are a few items that I would like to focus on specifically. Temporary Waiver of 2020 Required Minimum Distributions (RMD) This is great news for investors that begrudgingly withdraw from their IRA accounts every year because the IRS requires them to do so. These investors will be able to save on taxes as any withdraws from an IRA account or retirement plan account is taxed at ordinary income. The 2020 RMD waiver is also approved for IRA Beneficiary Accounts as well. Remember, if you are required to take an RMD you can donate your RMD amount to a church or any 503c organization and make your distribution tax-free. This is a great way to make donations to your favorite charities. If you are a client of ours please let us know if you would like to waive your RMD this year as there is some paperwork for you to complete. 60-Day Rollovers for IRA Accounts As an IRA owner you have the ability to make a withdraw form your IRA and put the money back in within 60 days without having to pay the distribution taxes or penalties. … Read More
I am very proud to be married to my wife, Anne Michele, who is an emergency room nurse at Northeast Georgia Medical Center. Three weeks ago, she had exposure to several patients who had the coronavirus while she was at work. She was adamant that I stay home until the fourteen-day secondary transmission risk was all clear. So, I packed up my technology, put up a folding table I use for UGA tailgates, and I began to work in the basement. The next two and a half weeks were surreal, to say the least, and now that I am back in the office, I wanted to share some reflections, admissions, and confessions. Confessions – I love my routine! I love doing the same routine during the week and then the same weekend routine. I get stressed when the routine is not the same or when someone tries to change it. I stayed stressed while I was at home because everything was so different. – I am a complainer. I am a baby when things don’t go my way. So, when my “normal” went away, I got whinny. I will also admit I tried to nickname myself silky smooth in high… Read More
My life hasn’t changed a lot. We are a small office with private working spaces, so I still go into work every day. The biggest difference is how I do my grocery shopping. I’ve tried online shopping and then going to pick it up, trying to do my part in social distancing. But that doesn’t always work. The stores are still out of many items. My youngest son is still at home, so we are cooking at home again and sitting down together. My youngest son works in shipping. His biggest life change is he is now working longer hours and comes home more tired. He tells me he doesn’t understand the toilet paper and hand sanitizer shortage as that is all he is loading on trucks every day! When he goes into work, the first thing that happens, is they take his temperature. My middle son is a Marine and he’s stationed in Washington state. I asked what has changed for him. Not much other than some businesses are closed, and they are prohibited from going to Seattle. But, other than that, he is still doing much of his everyday life the same. My oldest son is in the… Read More
