Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 25 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 114 points and are trading 0.8% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 109 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. Equity futures indicate a higher open after yesterday’s mega cap-driven gains in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. The positive sentiment this morning has been supported by a pullback in the 10-yr Treasury note yield, which is down three basis points to 4.31%. A number of retailers have reported results and have been greeted with mixed responses. S&P Global downgraded its credit ratings and revised its outlook for multiple banks. This news follows last week’s warning from Fitch Ratings that it might be forced to downgrade the ratings of dozens of additional banks and Moody’s cutting the ratings of ten small to mid-sized U.S. banks a few weeks ago. Separately, concerns about China continue to linger in the background but have not upset market sentiment in the early going. Today’s economic calendar will feature the July Existing Home Sales report (Briefing.com consensus 4.15 million; prior 4.16 million) at 10:00 a.m. ET. (Michael… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 22 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 103 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 121 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. Stock futures indicate a higher open after last week’s losses. Some buy-the-dip interest in the mega-cap space has boosted the broader market. The People’s Bank of China lowered its one-year loan prime rate by ten basis points to 3.45% while the 5-yr rate was left unchanged at 4.20% against expectations for bigger cuts. The 2-yr Treasury note yield is up five basis points to 4.96%, and the 10-yr note yield is up five basis points to 4.30%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: On Friday, the S&P 500 traded down near support at 4328.08, and buyers came in to drive the index to a higher close at 4369.71. The index traded outside the lower Bollinger Band most of the day, typically a highly oversold indicator. Also, the internal and breadth indicators are in the oversold zone. So, we feel the path of least resistance today will be higher for… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 19 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 86 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 161 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. Stock futures indicate a higher open, reflecting some ongoing buy-the-dip interest and optimism that the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 a.m. ET will support an on-hold policy position. The general tone in the market could change as investors digest the CPI report and what it might mean for the Fed’s decision about its next monetary policy step. Gains in mega-cap stocks have been added support factors. The Biden administration confirmed reports that new restrictions will be imposed on investment in Chinese semiconductors and other advanced technology. China’s Commerce Ministry said in response that it is severely concerned about the impending changes. Treasuries are little changed ahead of the CPI report. The 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.79%, and the 10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 3.99%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 tested support at 4463.23 and… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 12 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 63 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 61 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The equity market is attempting to rebound from Friday’s afternoon selloff, which was broad-based and lacking a news catalyst. Early buying efforts are modest in scope, though, as interest rate angst continues to hang over the market. On a related note, Fed Governor Bowman (FOMC voter) said additional rate hikes are likely to be needed, while New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) suggested the Fed might be close to the peak rate but that it is uncertain how long the Fed will have to leave rates in restrictive territory. The July Consumer Price Index, which will be released on Thursday before the open, will certainly factor as a trading catalyst this week. Currently, the 2-yr note yield is up four basis points to 4.82%, and the 10-yr note yield is up four basis points to 4.10%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.2% to 102.26. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio… Read More
Markets: The S&P 500 sold off sharply and moved past two key support levels to close lower at 4513.39. However, the volume was only average, with 2,445,212,160 shares traded, and the down volume was only 78%. The close below the 20-day average and the RSI index closing lower at 53.82 is a potential sign there will be more selling today. If so, the internal breadth indicators could continue to move further away from the overbought zone. We feel possible support at 4463.23 will hold if tested today. We are currently Intermediate-term bearish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and futures trading could present additional risk based on underlying commodities investments. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and changes of price movements. The advance/decline line (A/D) is a technical indicator that plots the difference between the number of advancing and declining stocks on a daily… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 21 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 109 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 102 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. Stock futures point to losses at the open as earnings season rolls on. Negative reactions to results and/or guidance have acted as a drag on the broader market, along with ongoing consolidation efforts. Fitch downgraded the United States credit rating to “AA+” from “AAA”, citing an expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, growing government debt, and erosion of governance standards related to peers. Notably, Treasuries have remained resilient and yields have moved lower despite the downgrade. The 2-yr note yield is down four basis points to 4.88% and the 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.02%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in another tight range and closed lower at 4576.73. The index remains in the middle of the current 4527.56-4607.07 trading range. So far this morning, the S&P 500 futures are lower after Fitch downgraded the long-term foreign currency… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 14 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 83 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 47 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Stock futures are negative as investors react to the latest batch of earnings news, which has garnered mixed price action. Some Dow components have offered some support to the market after earnings reports. Meanwhile, losses in some airlines and cruise names have kept the market in check in addition to a sense that the market is overdue for a pullback after the strong start to the year. China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI returned into contraction territory after expanding slightly for the past two months. Elsewhere, final July Manufacturing PMI readings from Germany, France, U.K., Spain, and Italy remained in contraction territory. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed higher at 4588.96 after trading in another tight range. The trading action appears to be the index consolidating gains and setting up to possibly make a run at another new high for the year. However, this week will be… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 6 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 30 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 49 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Stock futures indicate a modestly higher open in front of another busy week of earnings news. There’s some market-moving economic data in the form of the ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indexes and the July Employment Report. Over the weekend, Minneapolis Fed chair Neel Kashkari (FOMC voter) said in an interview he is no longer expecting a US recession, according to CBS News. China’s Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction in the July reading, while Non-Manufacturing PMI decelerated for the fourth consecutive month. Also, China will launch new measures to increase consumption but stopped short of direct consumer support, according to Bloomberg. U.S. economic data today is limited to the July Chicago PMI (prior to 41.5) at 9:45 ET. The 2-yr Treasury note yield is down two basis points to 4.87%, and the 10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 3.96%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P… Read More
Headline News: Inflation showed further signs of cooling in June, according to a gauge released Friday that the Federal Reserve follows closely. The personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy, increased just 0.2% from the previous month, in line with the Dow Jones estimate, the Commerce Department said. So-called core PCE rose 4.1% from a year ago, compared to the estimate of 4.2%. The annual rate was the lowest since September 2021. (Jeff Cox CNBC) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied past resistance at 4580.62 early, but sellers came in, and the index tested support at 4527.56 but rallied slightly to close at 4537.41. The RSI index also moved lower in support of the seller to close at 63.77. However, this morning’s tame core PCE inflation report has buyers back, and the S&P is set to open higher by .67%. The internal indicators are still overbought, so today’s trading could be choppy, and we feel the index will remain in the current trading range of 452.756-4580.62. We are currently Intermediate-term bearish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners &… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 7 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 48 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 52 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The stock market is poised for a slightly lower open in front of the FOMC policy decision at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. Investors are expecting a 25 basis points rate hike today, so focus will be turned to Mr. Powell’s commentary. There has also been a heavy batch of earnings since yesterday’s close that investors are reacting to. The calendar after yesterday’s close was headlined by reports from some of the largest names in Tech, which garnered mixed reactions, while some Dow component blue chips have headlined the calendar before today’s open. The 2-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.87%, and the 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 3.89%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied to a new intraday high for the year at 4580.62, but sellers came in,… Read More
