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Market Updates

Morning Brief

December 27th, 2023

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Headline News:

The S&P 500 futures are up one point and are trading roughly in line with fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up seven points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 25 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value.

Stock futures indicate a flattish open without clear directional drivers this morning. Participation should be light again today and throughout the rest of the week/year.

The market continues to weigh geopolitical worries after Israel reportedly pledged to continue fighting until Hamas is defeated. Also, Houthi rebels attacked an MSC United VIII container ship on Tuesday, according to Bloomberg, but shipping giant Maersk said it was resuming operations in the Red Sea after its recent pause.

The 2-yr note yield is down five basis points from yesterday at 4.30%. The 10-year note yield is down two basis points to 3.87%.

(Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager)

 

Markets:

The S&P 500 rallied past the recent high of 4778.01, but selling came in, and the index closed at 4774.75. The RSI index remained in the overbought zone at 72.70, and the breadth indicators also remained overbought. The S&P 500 is within reach of the all-time high at 4818.82, and we feel that level will be taken out by the end of the week.

We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish.    

 

John N. Lilly III CPFA
Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠
Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠
Portfolio Manager, RJFS
Partner, DJWMG
Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist

 

Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and futures trading could present additional risk based on underlying commodities investments.

 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and changes of price movements.

 

.The percentage of stocks trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The 50-day moving average is used for short-to-medium-term timeframes, while the 150-day and 200-day moving averages are used for medium-to-long-term timeframes. Signals can be derived from overbought/oversold levels, crosses above/below 50%, and bullish/bearish divergences.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stocks of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represent approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index.

 

 The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S stock market. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investors’ results will vary. Opinions expressed are those of the author John N. Lilly III, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. “There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecast provided herein will prove to be correct. “The information contained was received from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Investing always involves risk, and you may incur a profit or loss. No investment strategy can guarantee success. The charts and/or tables presented herein are for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered as the sole basis for your investment decision. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, different financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets.

 

 

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any company’s stock mentioned above.

 

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value.  US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government.  Bond prices and yields are subject to change based on market conditions and availability. If bonds are sold prior to maturity, you may receive more or less than your initial investment. Holding bonds to term allows redemption at par value. There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and bond prices. Generally, when interest rates rise, bond prices fall, and when interest rates fall, bond prices generally rise.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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