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Market Updates

Morning Brief

November 20th, 2023

Headline News:

U.S. markets are loving the October CPI report.

Stock futures surged shortly after the closely watched inflation data, which gauges changes in a broad range of prices for consumer goods and services. The October report showed prices were broadly unchanged last month, while a reading on “core” prices — which strips out volatile food and energy — showed they increased by just 0.2%, less than the 0.3% jump that economists had expected.

Treasury yields tumbled on the news, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping below 4.5%. It was down 14.4 basis points in recent trade at 4.475%.

Market-based expectations for another interest-rate hike from the Federal Reserve have declined substantially, with interest-rate futures showing expectations for a hike at the Fed’s final policy meeting of 2023 have sunk to virtually zero, down from 14.5% a day earlier, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.

(Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager)

 

Markets:

The S&P 500 closed higher at 4514.02 and above resistance at  4511.99 on Friday. The index moved out of a three-day base in the process and is now in a position to take out potential resistance at 4521.454. However, the RSI index is on the verge of being overbought, and the breadth indicators are well above overbought levels. So, the index needs to build a more extensive base for a few more days before moving higher. The potential support could now come in at 4487.83, which should hold if tested today.

 

We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish.  

 

John N. Lilly III CPFA
Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠
Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠
Portfolio Manager, RJFS
Partner, DJWMG
Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist

 

Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and futures trading could present additional risk based on underlying commodities investments.

 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and changes of price movements.

 

The advance/decline line (A/D) is a technical indicator that plots the difference between the number of advancing and declining stocks on a daily basis. The indicator is cumulative, with a positive number being added to the prior number, or if the number is negative, it is subtracted from the prior number.

The A/D line is used to show market sentiment, as it tells traders whether there are more stocks rising or falling. It is used to confirm price trends in major indexes and can also warn of reversals when divergence occurs.

 

 

The percentage of stocks trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The 50-day moving average is used for short-to-medium-term timeframes, while the 150-day and 200-day moving averages are used for medium-to-long-term timeframes. Signals can be derived from overbought/oversold levels, crosses above/below 50%, and bullish/bearish divergences.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stocks of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represent approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index.

 

 

 

The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S stock market. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investors’ results will vary. Opinions expressed are those of the author John N. Lilly III, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. “There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecast provided herein will prove to be correct. “The information contained was received from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Investing always involves risk, and you may incur a profit or loss. No investment strategy can guarantee success. The charts and/or tables presented herein are for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered as the sole basis for your investment decision. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, different financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets.

 

 

 

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any company’s stock mentioned above.

 

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value.  US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government.  Bond prices and yields are subject to change based on market conditions and availability. If bonds are sold prior to maturity, you may receive more or less than your initial investment. Holding bonds to term allows redemption at par value. There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and bond prices. Generally, when interest rates rise, bond prices fall, and when interest rates fall, bond prices generally rise.

 

The Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) is a stock market index made up of 103 equity securities issued by 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the NASDAQ. It is a modified capitalization-weighted index. It is based on exchange, and it is not an index of U.S.-based companies. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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