Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 20 points and are trading 0.8% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 114 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 124 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. Equity futures indicate another lower open for the stock market. There is a continued inclination to take profits after the big run to end 2023, helped by rising Treasury yields. The 2-yr note yield is up two basis points to 4.35%, and the 10-yr note yield is just below 4.00%, up three basis points from yesterday at 3.98%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P closed lower for the third day and is now at 4,742.83. The index traded as low as 4,722.67, but buyers came in late to rally the index into the close. The RSI index also continues to move lower in support of the selling, and the breadth indicators remain in the overbought zone. So, caution is still warranted for new buys for today’s trading session. We still believe the support at 4,697.82 could be tested this week. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 40 points and are trading 0.8% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 202 points and are trading 1.2% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 240 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value. Stock futures indicate a lower open on the first session of the new year following big gains for the market in 2023. A loss in a large tech company has contributed to the negative bias after the stock was downgraded. Rising rates are another factor driving the downbeat price action. The 2-yr note yield is up seven basis points to 4.32% and the 10-yr note yield is up seven basis points to 3.95%. Geopolitical worries are also in play after Iran sent a warship to the Red Sea after the U.S. destroyed three Houthi boats, according to Bloomberg. Also, Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected international pressure to stop the war, saying the war will continue until “absolute victory,” which will take “many more months,” according to The New York Times. WTI crude oil futures are up 2.2% to $73.17/bbl, likely tied to the geopolitical angst. Manufacturing PMI readings… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are flat and are trading roughly in line with fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 35 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 67 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. Stock futures indicate a mixed open. Participation will be light again, with only two trading days left in 2023. Market participants are waiting to see if the S&P 500 will close above its previous record high before the end of the year, which is only 0.3% higher than yesterday’s close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, for its part, set a new all-time closing high again yesterday. The 2-yr note yield is up two basis points from yesterday at 4.25%, and the 10-yr note yield is up three basis points to 3.82%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 achieved a new 52-week high at 4,785.39 and is now just below the all-time high of 4,818.82. We believe the index will set a new all-time high by the end of the year. Although the RSI and the breadth indicators are still in the overbought zone, and the… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up one point and are trading roughly in line with fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up seven points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 25 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Stock futures indicate a flattish open without clear directional drivers this morning. Participation should be light again today and throughout the rest of the week/year. The market continues to weigh geopolitical worries after Israel reportedly pledged to continue fighting until Hamas is defeated. Also, Houthi rebels attacked an MSC United VIII container ship on Tuesday, according to Bloomberg, but shipping giant Maersk said it was resuming operations in the Red Sea after its recent pause. The 2-yr note yield is down five basis points from yesterday at 4.30%. The 10-year note yield is down two basis points to 3.87%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied past the recent high of 4778.01, but selling came in, and the index closed at 4774.75. The RSI index remained in the overbought zone at 72.70, and the breadth indicators also remained overbought. The S&P 500 is… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up five points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 43 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 71 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. Stock futures are trading higher following yesterday’s positive finish for the market. The bias could shift, though, with the release of the November Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET. Treasury yields are moving lower in front of that report. The 10-yr note yield is down five basis points to 4.19% and the 2-yr note yield is down five basis points to 4.68%. Earlier, the NFIB Small Business Optimism survey declined slightly to 90.6 in November from 90.7 in October. Notable data from overseas included Japan’s November Producer Price Index, which was up 0.3% year-over-year, and the UK’s employment data, which showed weaker-than-expected wage growth and a higher-than-expected claimant count. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied for the third day, closing higher at 4622.44 and above the resistance level at 4607.07. However, volume came in at only 2,410,460,672, and the up volume was only… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 14 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 64 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 78 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. Stock futures indicate a lower open, cooling off following big gains of late. Treasury yields are moving higher. The 2-yr note yield is up four basis points to 4.60% and the 10-yr note yield is up two basis points to 4.25%. WTI crude oil futures are down 0.8% to $73.45/bbl. Today’s economic data is limited to October Factory Orders at 10:00 ET. In other news, a US destroyer and several commercial ships were attacked in the Red Sea, according to The Wall Street Journal. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied sharply and closed higher at 4594.63 on Friday. The volume was above average, with 2,520,706,816 shares traded, and the up volume was 86%. However, the breadth indicators and the RSI index are now deeply overbought, and a move past potential resistance at 4607.07 remains unlikely. The S&P 500 did move out of a six-day… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 22 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 95 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 122 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. Stock futures are higher this morning following yesterday’s modest gains, supported by a further drop in market rates. Yields have pressed lower on some pleasing inflation data out of Germany, Spain, and Australia, and the notion that the Fed may cut rates in the first half of 2024. Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman is of this mindset, saying he believes the Fed may cut rates as soon as Q1 of 2024, according to Bloomberg. Other support factors include a positive response to earnings news, a fear of missing out on further gains, and month-end trading dynamics. The 2-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.71%, and the 10-yr note yield is down five basis points to 4.29% but hit 4.25% overnight. WTI crude oil futures are up 1.8% to $77.76/bbl. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index increased 0.3%, with purchase applications jumping 5.0% while refinance applications dropped 9.0%.… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down nine points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 39 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 29 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Again, there isn’t much conviction on the part of buyers or sellers, so the major indices look poised for a soft open with a slight downward bias. Following four straight weeks of gains, there seems to be some buyer exhaustion, which is understandable. The bigger takeaway at this juncture, though, is that sellers still don’t have a pep in their step. The corporate news flow has picked up some, but none of it has had market-moving cachet. Today’s economic calendar features the November Consumer Confidence Index at 10:00 a.m. ET (Briefing.com consensus 100.0; Prior 102.6). Treasuries are mixed in front of the report and today’s $39 billion 7-yr note auction with results at 1:00 p.m. ET. WTI crude futures are up 0.9% to $75.55/bbl. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 4550.43 after trading in another tight range. The index briefly tested support… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 6 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 12 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 52 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. This current disposition puts the cash market on track for a modestly lower start at the opening bell, coming off four consecutive weeks of gains. It won’t be regarded as surprising simply because the extent of gains since late October has fostered a sense that the market is due for a period of consolidation. However, the resilience to selling efforts — and the additional gains that continue to be achieved — have also created some seasonality momentum and a fear of missing out on further gains that have continued to provide support for the market. The corporate news flow coming off the weekend has been limited, but that will change as the week progresses. For now, most of the attention is on retail sales activity during Black Friday, Small Business Saturday, and, now, Cyber Monday. In other developments, Israel and Hamas followed through with hostage/prisoner releases over the weekend, and… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 10 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 58 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 34 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Major indices look poised to begin the day with modest gains, supported by mega-cap leadership. The 10-yr note yield sliding to 4.36%, down six basis points from yesterday, is also providing underlying support along with the seasonality trade ahead of economic releases this morning that include Weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims (8:30 a.m. ET), October Durable Goods Orders (8:30 a.m. ET), and the Final November University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (10:00 a.m. ET). In other news, Sam Altman is returning to OpenAI as CEO, and Israel and Hamas have agreed to a four-day pause in fighting that is part of a hostage release deal. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.1% to 103.64. WTI crude futures are down 2.9% to $75.52/bbl. As a reminder, the U.S. market will be closed Thursday for Thanksgiving Day and will close early at 1:00 p.m. ET on Friday. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead… Read More
