Headline News: A widely followed measure of inflation accelerated slightly less than expected in July on an annual basis as President Donald Trump’s tariffs worked their way through the economy. The consumer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month and 2.7% on a 12-month basis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. That compares to the respective Dow Jones estimates for 0.2% and 2.8%. Excluding food and energy, core CPI increased 0.3% for the month and 3.1% from a year ago, compared to the forecasts for 0.3% and 3%. Federal Reserve officials generally consider core inflation to be a better reading for longer-term trends. (Jeff Cox, CNBC ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 6,373.45, holding within its current trading range of 6,315.61–6,427.02. Following the release of the July CPI report, S&P 500 futures are up 0.50%, suggesting a potential test of resistance at 6,427.02. A close above that level, accompanied by an up-volume day of 80% or more, could signal the start of a new uptrend. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures are modestly higher after yesterday’s trade that saw early gains across the board before some modest but broad-based selling activity saw the major averages finish mixed for the day. The announcement of semiconductor tariff exemptions for companies committed to domestic production provided the early pop, though the retreat was largely devoid of any one catalyst. The market will largely be left to its own devices today, as there are no major headline developments so far and no economic data releases. There is another wave of companies reporting earnings at the moment, and while earnings have certainly had stock-specific impacts this week, they have not moved the broader market. The S&P 500 holds a 1.6% week-to-date gain before today’s open, with yesterday’s early push seeing the index test its all-time closing high of 6,389.77 before retreating. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 attempted to rally but faced selling pressure, ultimately closing lower at 6,340.00. A potential trading range between 6,201.59 and 6,427.02 may be forming, suggesting the index is consolidating its recent gains. Key support levels remain at the 20-day moving average of 6,318.56, followed by 6,201.59. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures are modestly higher this morning after yesterday’s retreat in response to some softened economic data, with a fresh wave of earnings reports underlying most of the morning chatter. While this week’s earnings reports lack the mega-cap luster of the prior week, there are still many important industry leaders on the docket. This morning features earnings from a cohort of household names. There are no other notable developments this morning. On the data side, the MBA Mortgage Applications Index for the week ending August 2 increased 3.1% after decreasing 3.8% the prior week. On the trade front, President Trump’s envoy Steve Wilkoff met with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss an end to the war with Ukraine ahead of possible secondary sanctions on Russia. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at 6,299.19, slipping below the 20-day moving average of 6,311.49. This suggests the index may consolidate and form a new base in the coming days. Notably, the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.22%, breaking below key support at 4.24%. This move indicates that the bond market is pricing in rate cuts sooner than expected, which could provide a bullish backdrop for… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures are modestly higher following yesterday’s uneventful session that saw the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite reach new highs. Though there was broad-based selling activity in the afternoon, mega-cap stocks, and particularly tech stocks, performed well enough to preserve modest gains for the indices. There is a fresh batch of earnings reports for the market to digest, but more consequential earnings are to come next week, with four “magnificent seven” names set to report. The market also awaits further trade developments with key trade partners, with The Wall Street Journal reporting that the Trump administration will hold talks with China on trade next week. A separate report from The Wall Street Journal states that Corporate America is paying for most of the cost of tariffs so far, not consumers. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied to a new intraday high of 6,381.31, pushing above the upper Bollinger Band before pulling back. Sellers stepped in, and the index closed lower at 6,363.35, which now becomes potential resistance in today’s session. The RSI remains in overbought territory, suggesting caution is warranted. If the market pulls back, support at 6,315.61 is expected to… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures are higher this morning to start a week that will see the first of the Magnificent 7, among many others, report Q2 earnings. The stock market is coming off a relatively strong week, during which the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reached fresh record highs on Thursday, driven by an encouraging batch of economic data and earnings reports. Earnings are poised to be the primary catalyst for this week’s action, as the economic data releases are noticeably lighter. Tariff headlines have also been relatively calm as of late, with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick expressing confidence that the U.S. will make a trade deal with the EU as the bloc prepares retaliatory measures, according to The Wall Street Journal. President Trump spoke in favor of a 15-20% tariff on imports from Europe, which would be higher than what EU officials had hoped for. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 tested resistance at the top of its current trading range at 6,305.04, but selling pressure emerged, pushing the index slightly lower to close at 6,296.79. Despite the modest decline, trading remained confined to a narrow range, positioning the index for a potential breakout… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures are mixed this morning, following yesterday’s trade that saw the market retreat from opening highs after interest rates rose following the release of the June CPI. The main catalysts for today’s session are similar to those of yesterday; the market awaits the release of a key piece of inflationary data (today’s June PPI) while a slate of large banks has reported their earnings before the open. Yesterday’s CPI release provided the markets with an initial boost, as the Core CPI number was lower than expected. However, a closer look at the report revealed pockets of inflation in several areas, which stirred concerns about tariff-driven inflation. In turn, interest rates rose throughout the day, most stocks slipped, and the chance of a September rate cut decreased to 54%. Today’s release of the June PPI could be even more influential, as the report will inform the PCE Price Index, which is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. Tariff headlines are relatively subdued this morning, with President Trump stating that a tariff on pharmaceuticals will likely begin on August 1, although it will likely start at a lower rate than the 200% figure to give companies time to adjust.… Read More
Headline News: Consumer prices rose in June as President Donald Trump’s tariffs began to work their way through the U.S. economy slowly. The consumer price index, a broad-based measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.3% on the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.7%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The numbers were right in line with the Dow Jones consensus. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core inflation rose 0.2% month-over-month, with the annual rate increasing to 2.9%, matching the respective estimates. Before June, inflation had been on a generally downward slope for the year, with headline CPI at a 3% annual rate back in January and progressing gradually slower in the subsequent months despite fears that Trump’s trade war would drive prices higher. While the evidence in June was mixed on the extent to which tariffs influence prices, there were signs that the duties are having an impact. Vehicle prices fell on a month-over-month basis, with new vehicle prices down 0.3% and used cars and trucks tumbling 0.7%. However, tariff-sensitive apparel prices increased 0.4%. (Jeff Cox, CNBC) Markets: The S&P 500 closed higher at 6,268.56, remaining within the established trading range of 6,277.60 to 6,290.22.… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures are modestly lower this morning following the announcement of a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico, effective August 1. The head of the EU’s Executive Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has stated that the EU will refrain from imposing any retaliatory measures until the August deadline in hopes of negotiating a better deal, according to Reuters. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has also expressed confidence that she can strike a more favorable deal before August, according to Bloomberg. The stock market has been resilient in the face of tariff announcements over the past two weeks but has been subject to some softer pockets when the country in question is a close trading partner. Thursday saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite eclipse new all-time highs, but the market closed lower for the week following the announcement of a 35% tariff on Canada. Though there are no economic data releases of note today, June CPI numbers will be released on Tuesday, and June PPI numbers come out on Wednesday, which could reflect the impacts of tariffs in relation to inflation. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a narrow range and… Read More
Headline News: The stock market is poised for a lower opening following a fresh wave of tariff announcements from President Trump. Most notably, a 35% tariff on Canadian imports was announced, effective August 1. President Trump also said in a phone interview with NBC News that most trading partners will face a 15-20% tariff, and that the EU will get a tariff letter later today. The president also stated that he will make a “major statement” on Russia on Monday. The S&P 500 futures are currently trading 35 points below fair value, or a decrease of 0.6%. Treasuries are also down this morning, with the 10-year note yield up four basis points at 4.39%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed higher at 6,280.46, marking another intraday all-time high at 6,290.22. The RSI has confirmed the latest high and re-entered overbought territory, reinforcing the strength of the current uptrend. However, S&P 500 futures are down 0.55% this morning following President Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on Canada. We expect the index to test potential support at 6,227.60, which we believe is likely to hold for now. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. … Read More
Headline News: The stock market is poised for a flat opening with S&P 500 futures trading one point above fair value. Yesterday’s action saw a slide in tech stocks after Monday’s record-breaking session, which stifled further gains in the S&P 500 despite a strong performance from small and mid-cap stocks. The market awaits the fate of the large reconciliation bill, which passed through the Senate yesterday, 51-50, and is now currently being debated in the House. President Trump has threatened to impose a 35% tariff on Japan if a trade deal is not struck before the July 9 deadline. The market received the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index, which increased by 2.7% from a prior 1.1% rise. The June ADP Employment Change report (Briefing.com consensus 97K; prior 37K) will be released at 8:15 ET. Treasuries are on track for a lower start with the 10-yr yield rising four basis points to 4.29%.’ (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at 6,198.01, failing to set a new all-time high and potentially beginning to form a base at current levels. The index has moved back inside the upper Bollinger Band, while the RSI remains in overbought territory—suggesting… Read More
