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Market Updates

Morning Brief

April 16th, 2024

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Headline News:

The S&P 500 futures are up 11 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 24 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 235 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value.

Stock futures indicate a higher open after recent declines. The positive bias is fueled in part by a buy-the-dip mentality, along with positive responses to some earnings news. A big pre-open gain in a Dow component after reporting earnings has provided an added boost to contracts linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

While others also garnered positive responses to their quarterly results, some are little changed in front of the open following above-consensus results.

The overall upside vibe has also been supported by pleasing data from China, which reported strong-than-expected growth in GDP in Q1. Industrial production growth and retail sales growth, however, did not beat expectations.

Today’s US economic releases include the March Housing Starts and Building Permits report at 8:30 ET and the March Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization at 9:15 ET.

Treasury yields are little changed in front of the data. The 10-yr note yield is unchanged at 4.63%, and the 2-yr note yield is unchanged at 4.94%.

(Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager)

 

Markets:

The S&P 500 followed through with a down volume of 80% after Friday’s 90% down volume day. So, a new downtrend is potentially in place. The index held at the support at 5,048.39, and we feel that it will not hold again if tested today. That would bring in the possible support at 4,979.29, which should hold if tested today. If not, the next potential support level could come in at the 38% Fibonacci retracement level at 4,850.

We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish.    

John N. Lilly III CPFA
Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠
Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠
Portfolio Manager, RJFS
Partner, DJWMG
Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist

 

Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and futures trading could present additional risk based on underlying commodities investments.

 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and changes of price movements.

 

The percentage of stocks trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The 50-day moving average is used for short-to-medium-term timeframes, while the 150-day and 200-day moving averages are used for medium-to-long-term timeframes. Signals can be derived from overbought/oversold levels, crosses above/below 50%, and bullish/bearish divergences.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stocks of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represents approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index.

 

 The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investors’ results will vary. Opinions expressed are those of the author, John N. Lilly III, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. “There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecast provided herein will prove to be correct. “The information contained was received from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Investing always involves risk, and you may incur a profit or loss. No investment strategy can guarantee success. The charts and/or tables presented herein are for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered as the sole basis for your investment decision. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, different financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets.

 

 This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any company’s stock mentioned above.

 

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value.  US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government.  Bond prices and yields are subject to change based on market conditions and availability. If bonds are sold prior to maturity, you may receive more or less than your initial investment. Holding bonds to term allows redemption at par value. There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and bond prices. Generally, when interest rates rise, bond prices fall, and when interest rates fall, bond prices generally rise.

 

 

 

 

 

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