Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down three points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down seven points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 40 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Stock futures indicate a lower open, pressured by a jump in Treasury yields and rising political uncertainty abroad. The 10-year note yield is up three basis points to 4.46%. Major European indices trade lower after weekend elections to the European Parliament, which resulted in increased support for right-leaning parties and French President Macron’s decision to call a snap election for the end of June/early July. Elsewhere, commodity futures are moving higher. WTI crude oil futures are up 1.0% to $76.26/bbl, natural gas futures are up 4.2% to $3.04/mmbtu, and copper futures are up 1.0% to $4.53/lb. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded beneath current support and then tested the high for the year, only to close slightly higher at 5346.99. The potential support at 5,341.88 remains in place, and the 20-day moving average at 5,291.16 would be the next possible support level. Potential resistance… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up two points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 28 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 16 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Equity futures are flattish after yesterday’s solid rally in the stock market. Shares of a large semiconductor company are up nearly 2.0% premarket after topping a $3 trillion market value yesterday, but that hasn’t translated into broad support for equities. There is some hesitation in play ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) expected rate cut announcement at 8:15 ET. Treasury yields were slightly higher ahead of the announcement, keeping equities in check. The 10-year note yield is up two basis points to 4.31%, and the 2-year note yield is up one basis point to 4.74%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied by 1.18% and closed at a new all-time high of 5,354.03. However, the up volume was only 66% of the total volume, and the RSI index did not move to a new high. So, the rally is suspect until there is… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 18 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 52 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 120 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The stock market is poised for a lower open. Growth concerns remain at the forefront following yesterday’s soft ISM Manufacturing number release. Pre-open losses in the mega-cap space have also contributed to the downside bias today. Treasury yields and oil prices are lower this morning, reflecting ongoing slowdown worries. The 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.38%, and the 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.80%. WTI crude oil futures are down 1.9% to $72.81/bbl. Market participants will receive the April Factory Orders report and the April JOLTS – Jobs Openings report at 10:00 ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 5,283.40 but did manage to move back into the recent trading range of 5,264.85-5,341.88. The index also closed above the 20-day moving average at 5,262.40, which will now become potential resistance. The 10-year treasury is now… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 11 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 94 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are flat and are trading roughly in line with fair value. Early trading as the new month begins has a mostly positive bias. Treasury yields are slightly lower, supporting equities. The 10-year note yield is down four basis points to 4.47%, and the 2-year note yield is down three basis points to 4.86%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 spent most of the day below the 20-day moving average, but the index mounted an impressive late rally to close higher at 5,277.51. The buyers came in just above the 50-day moving average, and the RSI index rallied to support the rally. The up volume was 71% of the total, which showed the buying did have some intensity. The 10-year treasury closed below 4.5%, and we feel the recent uptrend in the yield could be over. So, if the S&P 500 can rally again today and close in the middle of the old trading range, a new… Read More
Headline News: Economists have been parsing the PCE report to try to glean which way inflation is headed and one key data point suggests price rises might be calming down. The three-month annualized rate of inflation slowed to 3.8% in April from 4.4% in March. That’s what the rate of U.S. inflation would be for all of 2024 if prices increased at the same rate in the final eight months of the year as they did in the February-to-April time frame. Still, the current three-month annualized rate is well above the 0.6% recording as recently as last December. The rate typically averaged 2% or less in the decade before the pandemic. The six-month annualized rate of inflation, on the other hand, rose to 2.9% in April from 2.5% in March. But that figure is a less up-to-date measure of which direction inflation is headed. (Jeffry Bartash MarketWatch) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 5,235.48 and below the 20-day moving average at 5,243.95, and the RSI index closed at 51.72, just above the critical 50 level. However, the up volume was 68% of the total volume, showing that the selling was not intense. If the selling continues today, the… Read More
We are mighty proud of Dub Jones, the son of our newest employee, Anne Bleakley Hughs. On the last day of first grade, Dub was honored for excellence in three subjects, and a fourth one for music was also awarded. That took us all back to the year and school when we were in first grade. Bobbie- 1975 can’t remember. Military brat. Lilly – 1976 Mt. Zion Elementary. Jonesboro, Georgia Anne Bleakley- 1994 Enota Elementary, Gainesville, Georgia Jon- 1984 Mason County Eastern Elementary in Michigan Deven- 2004 Chicopee Woods Elementary Gainesville, Georgia Carlos- 1955 Somewhere in Havannah, Cuba Christina- 1985 Holland Elementary in Michigan
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up six points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 45 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 40 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Stock futures indicate a mixed open for the major indices on the first session of this holiday-shortened week. Premarket gains in a large tech company, which is reacting to news that China shipments increased 52% last month and news that Elon Musk’s xAI will spend billions on AI chips, have supported the broader market this morning. Treasury yields are little changed this morning. The 10-year note yield is up one basis point to 4.47%, and the 2-year note yield is down two basis points to 4.93%. Today’s economic calendar includes the March FHFA Housing Price Index and March S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index at 9:00 ET and the May Consumer Confidence Index at 10:00 ET. Other notable US data this week include the second estimate of Q1 GDP on Thursday and the Personal Income and Spending report for April on Friday. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 13 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 58 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 65 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The early positive bias is fueled by pre-open gains in mega-cap stocks. The upside bias is also related to rebound action after this week’s losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 are each down more than 2.0% this week. There’s also some hesitation in play in front of the extended holiday weekend. Markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day. The activity in Treasuries has been muted so far. The 10-yr note yield is unchanged at 4.48%, and the 2-yr note yield is up one basis point to 4.94%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off by 0.74%, and the total down volume was 85% of the overall trading. The index closed below support at 4,283.59 and briefly tested and held the current potential support level at 4,264.85. The down volume indicates there could potentially be more selling, and we feel… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 35 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 205 points and are trading 1.1% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 64 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. Contracts tied to the Nasdaq 100 are sharply higher following a leading semiconductor company posting impressive earnings results. The shares are up about 7.0% ahead of the open after reporting better-than-expected earnings and revenue accompanied by above-consensus guidance. Other large-cap stocks and AI-related names are higher in pre-market action in sympathy. Treasury yields are slightly lower, providing added support to equities. The 10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.42%, and the 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.87%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded down to support at 4,283.59, but the buyers stepped in to help the index rally to close at 5,307.01. A five-day base has formed and firmly established the trading range of 4,283.59- 5,325.39, and today’s trading should also remain in that range. Nivida (NVDA) earnings were better than expected, but that news was negated after… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down nine points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down three points and are trading fractionally below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 88 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. There’s a negative bias in early trading, but true to this week’s form, there’s not a lot of conviction fueling the activity. Market participants are still in wait-and-see mode in front of earnings after the close. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index jumped 1.9% after last week’s 0.5% increase. Other data today include the Existing Home Sales report for April at 10:00 ET and the weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30 ET. The Minutes for the April 30-May 1 FOMC meeting will be released at 2:00 ET. Treasury yields are higher in front of the data and the Minutes. The 10-year note yield is up four basis points to 4.45%, and the 2-year note yield is up four basis points to 4.87%. Elsewhere, commodity prices are lower this morning. WTI crude oil futures are down 1.0% to $77.87/bbl, natural gas futures are down 0.1% to $2.67/mmbtu, and copper futures… Read More
