Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 14 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 52 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 105 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The first day of the third quarter features a positive bias in early trading. Pre-open gains in the mega-cap space have contributed to the upside bias. A jump in market rates hasn’t deterred upside early action. The 10-year note yield is up seven basis points to 4.41%, and the 2-year note yield is up three basis points to 4.75%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: After a better-than-expected inflation report, the S&P 500 rallied to a new all-time intraday high at 5,523.64, but the sellers came in and drove the index down to close at 5,460.48. The failure to maintain the breakout shows that the buying momentum is weak due to internal indicators remaining in the overbought zones. The 20-day moving average has raced higher to provide optimal support at 5,408.26, and we continue to believe a test of this level is needed before the S&P 500 can close… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down three points and trading fractionally below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 14 points and trading 0.1% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 100 points and trading 0.2% below fair value. Contracts linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 are lower, while the NASDAQ 100 futures move higher, boosted by ongoing strength in Tech. Treasury yields are moving higher this morning, keeping pressure on equities. The 10-year note yield is up five basis points to 4.29%, and the 2-year note yield is up one basis point to 4.74%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed higher at 5,469.30, forming a three-day base. We believe a test of potential support at 5,402.51 is needed, but continuing the current base for a few more days may allow the overbought condition to be worked off. Also, investors may be waiting for the release of May’s PCE inflation report, which will be reported on Friday morning, to make long-term purchases. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up three points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 29 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 100 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. Early trading has been mixed. Despite a solid run for the major indices this month, neither buyers nor sellers have shown much conviction. The 10-year note yield is up one basis point to 4.27%, and the 2-year note yield is up two basis points to 4.75%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a tight range with massive volume due to a triple witching day on Friday. The RSI index is still in the overbought zone, and the breadth indicators are also overbought. Today’s trading could see some selling come in as traders potentially take profits. There is now possible support at 5,402.51; a test of that level would be constructive for the S&P 500 this week. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 28 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 58 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 291 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value. Early trading has a negative bias driven by ongoing consolidation efforts. The political uncertainty surrounding the French election, which sent European indices lower today, has contributed to the downside bias this morning. Treasury yields are slightly lower in a flight-to-safety bid related to political uncertainty. The 10-year note yield is down four basis points to 4.20%, and the 2-year note yield is down one basis point to 4.68%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at another new all-time high at 5,433.74 and also outside the upper Bollinger Band. The RSI index also closed in the overbought zone, so we feel the S&P 500 could see a pullback soon. If so, the potential resistance at 5,375.81 should hold if tested today. However, the selling could end quickly after the 10-year treasury moved through another support level and closed at a yield of 4.25%. We are currently… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 16 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 53 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 154 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. Early trading has a negative bias after yesterday’s rebound left the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite at fresh record highs. Some normal consolidation efforts and pre-open losses in mega-cap stocks have contributed to the early bias. Today’s economic lineup was limited to the NFIB Small Business Optimism survey, which rose to 90.5 in May from 89.7 in April. Wednesday’s calendar features the May Consumer Price Index release and the latest FOMC policy decision. Hesitation ahead of tomorrow’s market-moving events has contributed to this morning’s downside bias. Treasury yields are lower ahead of the aforementioned events. The 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.43%, and the 2-yr note yield is down four basis points to 4.84%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded below support at 5,341.88 but rallied late in the day to close higher at 5,360.79. The RSI index also closed… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down three points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down seven points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 40 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Stock futures indicate a lower open, pressured by a jump in Treasury yields and rising political uncertainty abroad. The 10-year note yield is up three basis points to 4.46%. Major European indices trade lower after weekend elections to the European Parliament, which resulted in increased support for right-leaning parties and French President Macron’s decision to call a snap election for the end of June/early July. Elsewhere, commodity futures are moving higher. WTI crude oil futures are up 1.0% to $76.26/bbl, natural gas futures are up 4.2% to $3.04/mmbtu, and copper futures are up 1.0% to $4.53/lb. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded beneath current support and then tested the high for the year, only to close slightly higher at 5346.99. The potential support at 5,341.88 remains in place, and the 20-day moving average at 5,291.16 would be the next possible support level. Potential resistance… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up two points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 28 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 16 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Equity futures are flattish after yesterday’s solid rally in the stock market. Shares of a large semiconductor company are up nearly 2.0% premarket after topping a $3 trillion market value yesterday, but that hasn’t translated into broad support for equities. There is some hesitation in play ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) expected rate cut announcement at 8:15 ET. Treasury yields were slightly higher ahead of the announcement, keeping equities in check. The 10-year note yield is up two basis points to 4.31%, and the 2-year note yield is up one basis point to 4.74%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied by 1.18% and closed at a new all-time high of 5,354.03. However, the up volume was only 66% of the total volume, and the RSI index did not move to a new high. So, the rally is suspect until there is… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 18 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 52 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 120 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The stock market is poised for a lower open. Growth concerns remain at the forefront following yesterday’s soft ISM Manufacturing number release. Pre-open losses in the mega-cap space have also contributed to the downside bias today. Treasury yields and oil prices are lower this morning, reflecting ongoing slowdown worries. The 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.38%, and the 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.80%. WTI crude oil futures are down 1.9% to $72.81/bbl. Market participants will receive the April Factory Orders report and the April JOLTS – Jobs Openings report at 10:00 ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 5,283.40 but did manage to move back into the recent trading range of 5,264.85-5,341.88. The index also closed above the 20-day moving average at 5,262.40, which will now become potential resistance. The 10-year treasury is now… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 11 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 94 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are flat and are trading roughly in line with fair value. Early trading as the new month begins has a mostly positive bias. Treasury yields are slightly lower, supporting equities. The 10-year note yield is down four basis points to 4.47%, and the 2-year note yield is down three basis points to 4.86%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 spent most of the day below the 20-day moving average, but the index mounted an impressive late rally to close higher at 5,277.51. The buyers came in just above the 50-day moving average, and the RSI index rallied to support the rally. The up volume was 71% of the total, which showed the buying did have some intensity. The 10-year treasury closed below 4.5%, and we feel the recent uptrend in the yield could be over. So, if the S&P 500 can rally again today and close in the middle of the old trading range, a new… Read More
Headline News: Economists have been parsing the PCE report to try to glean which way inflation is headed and one key data point suggests price rises might be calming down. The three-month annualized rate of inflation slowed to 3.8% in April from 4.4% in March. That’s what the rate of U.S. inflation would be for all of 2024 if prices increased at the same rate in the final eight months of the year as they did in the February-to-April time frame. Still, the current three-month annualized rate is well above the 0.6% recording as recently as last December. The rate typically averaged 2% or less in the decade before the pandemic. The six-month annualized rate of inflation, on the other hand, rose to 2.9% in April from 2.5% in March. But that figure is a less up-to-date measure of which direction inflation is headed. (Jeffry Bartash MarketWatch) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 5,235.48 and below the 20-day moving average at 5,243.95, and the RSI index closed at 51.72, just above the critical 50 level. However, the up volume was 68% of the total volume, showing that the selling was not intense. If the selling continues today, the… Read More
