Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower opening this morning as geopolitical volatility and climbing oil prices continue to exert broad pressure on the market. The major averages each closed more than 1% lower in yesterday’s action as optimism of a near-term negotiation between the U.S. and Iran faded. The state of the conflict and its potential resolution remain murky to say the least. President Trump said via Truth Social that the U.S. will temporarily halt strikes against Iranian energy, showing an eagerness to strike a deal to end the conflict. However, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Pentagon is considering sending 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East, escalating concerns of a potential ground conflict. Higher oil prices and geopolitical concerns weighed on the market yesterday, with particular weakness across mega-cap and tech stocks. Some of the mega-cap weakness stemmed from separate factors, but the losses culminated in the worst day for the S&P 500 since the conflict with Iran began. Crude oil is currently up $2.29 (+2.4%) to $96.77 per barrel. Yesterday’s weakness leaves the major averages entering today’s session mostly lower for the week, with the major averages nearing correction territory as they slip… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a sharply higher opening this morning after President Trump announced a potential de-escalation in the war in Iran. President Trump said via Truth Social that the U.S. and Iran have engaged in productive conversations around a “complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East,” adding that the talks will continue and he has instructed the Department of War to postpone any strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure. The stock market was on track to extend last week’s losses. Still, commentary sent equity futures surging, putting the major averages in position to challenge their respective 200-day moving averages at the open. Oil made a sharp move lower in response, with crude oil currently down $6.45 (-6.6%) to $91.78 per barrel. The major averages each shed roughly 2% last week as higher oil prices and Treasury yields put broad pressure on the market. Developments on the geopolitical and energy fronts will likely be a key driver of action today, as corporate news flow is relatively light, with no earnings reports on the calendar. Similarly, today’s economic data is limited to the 10:00 a.m. ET release of the January Construction Spending Report… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher opening this morning, following a losing week for equities, with the major averages posting losses of more than 1.0% across the board. The weakness was largely tied to a steady increase in the price of oil as the war in Iran continued, while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained at a near standstill. Developments on the geopolitical front are providing the primary catalyst for equity futures this morning. The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration plans to announce a multi-country coalition to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, with the announcement expected as early as this week. Additionally, Energy Secretary Chris Wright, in an interview, said the war with Iran will “certainly come to an end in the next few weeks,” noting that he thinks the Strait of Hormuz will be opened in the “not-too-distant future,” according to ABC News. Oil is currently down $1.62 (-1.6%) to $97.09 per barrel after testing the $ 100-per-barrel mark overnight. Energy and geopolitical developments continue to dominate headlines, though a few other elements are in play this week. The Fed will issue its decision for the March FOMC meeting on Wednesday,… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower open this morning after stocks closed mixed yesterday amid a whirlwind of geopolitical developments. Yesterday’s trade saw the market balance inflationary concerns tied to the sharp rise in oil prices against optimism that the conflict in Iran will not drag on longer than anticipated. The decisive move lower in equity futures, coupled with a rise in treasury yields, suggests the market is now not so sure that the conflict will remain contained or that its economic fallout will prove fleeting. Reuters reported late yesterday that Iran will attack any ship traversing the Strait of Hormuz, a headline that has seen crude oil futures rise nearly 7% this morning after closing 6% higher yesterday. Additionally, NBC News reported that Iranian drones hit the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, further stoking concerns that the conflict might be far from de-escalating. Elsewhere, mega-cap tech and software names are giving back some of yesterday’s strength in the premarket after a solid session yesterday that helped the major averages overcome the bulk of their early weakness. Corporate newsflow has taken a backseat amid the geopolitical turmoil, though there are a few notable earnings moves in the… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower opening this morning following attacks by the U.S. and Israel on Iran over the weekend, with Iran launching its own strikes against several countries in the region as a response. The conflict has now entered its third day, sending oil prices sharply higher. Crude oil is currently up $5.42 (+8.1%) to $72.44 per barrel, with The New York Times reporting that tanker traffic is down around 70% in the Strait of Hormuz. The market was relatively resilient to geopolitical developments in Iran last June when the U.S. bombed its top nuclear facility. Still, the sharp increase in oil prices and fears of a prolonged conflict could weigh on sentiment this time around. President Trump told reporters that the war with Iran could last 4 to 5 weeks, according to The New York Times. Stocks were already in a “risk-off” posture before this weekend’s conflict, with mega-cap, tech, and small-cap stocks lagging on Friday, while energy and defensive sectors outperformed. Action has been choppy in recent sessions as concerns of AI disruption continue to spread into new pockets of the market. The S&P 500 and DJIA will both enter the first session of… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher opening this morning after stocks advanced broadly yesterday, with the major averages taking back a meaningful chunk of Monday’s weakness. The S&P 500 enters today’s session just a few points below its 50-day moving average (6,895.87). Software stocks saw a nice rebound yesterday, as some bargain hunting after Monday’s slump combined with headlines that Anthropic’s Claude Cowork will now include plugins to pair with traditional productivity software suites. Investors will have several high-profile software and semiconductor stock earnings reports to assess after the close. On the trade front, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview that the 15% global tariff will not be permanent. The global tariff will serve as a bridge to other tariff authorities, such as the 301 investigations. He expects 301 investigations will reach the previous IEEPA tariff level, according to NBC News. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager |) Markets: The S&P 500 traded within the 6,858.47–6,780.13 range for the third consecutive session, closing higher at 6,890.07. The RSI moved up to 49.75, approaching the key 50 level, while the Advance-Decline line tested and held its long-term support trendline — an encouraging sign for underlying breadth. It… Read More
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Headline News: Equity futures point to a flattish opening this morning after a tough day for stocks in the previous session, when the major averages all closed over 1.0% lower, and the S&P 500 moved back into negative territory for the year, finishing below its 50-day moving average. Renewed concerns of AI disruption rocked the software sector once again, while the financial industry also faced similar pressures. Yesterday’s session was largely devoid of any gains across hyperscalers or semiconductors to offset the losses. That could change today, though, as a leading AI semiconductor company trades sharply higher in the premarket after a hyperscaler announced a multiyear deal valued at over $100 billion. Meanwhile, the market is also subject to developments on the trade front, as a 10% global tariff goes into effect today, with Bloomberg reporting the White House has prepared a formal order to raise it to 15%. Tariff concerns weighed on the consumer discretionary sector in yesterday’s trade, with particular weakness in stocks that rely on imports or have manufacturing bases overseas. Earnings also continue to drive notable stock-specific moves. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager |) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 6,837.75, down 1.06% on… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower opening to the week after stocks posted solid gains in the previous week, despite plenty of volatility. Friday’s action was particularly choppy following the Supreme Court’s ruling against President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs. In response, President Trump has raised global tariffs to 15% from 10% for 150 days, replacing the IEEPA tariffs that the Supreme Court invalidated. The White House has detailed several product and country exemptions, and the Commerce Department is expected to start various 301 investigations to impose permanent tariffs on specific countries. Bloomberg reports that the EU will propose freezing ratification of the trade deal with the U.S. until it receives details from the Trump administration on trade policy. Elsewhere in foreign policy, the U.S. and Iran are set to hold another round of nuclear talks on Thursday, with President Trump’s advisors urging him against a strike, according to Axios. Today will be light on the data front, with the 10:00 a.m. release of December Factory Orders (Briefing.com consensus 0.9%) the only release of note. The market will have another relatively busy week of earnings reports, which features a key AI semiconductor company on Wednesday. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio… Read More
Headline News: Fourth-quarter U.S. GDP up just 1.4%, badly missing estimate. The core personal consumption expenditures price index was expected to increase 3% from a year ago in December, according to the Dow Jones consensus. Gross domestic product was projected to rise at a 2.5% annualized pace in the fourth quarter. (Jeff Cox, CNBC ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed little changed at 6,861.89 after trading in a tight range throughout the session. This morning’s GDP growth and PCE inflation reports have not acted as immediate market movers, but as the data continues to be fully digested, the index could open lower. If selling pressure develops at the open, the key support level at 6,858.47 could be tested for a fourth time this year. The repeated testing of this level raises the question of whether buyers remain willing to defend it. A confirmed break below this level would likely weaken near-term technical conditions. The next important support level remains at 6,780.13. This level represents a more significant technical threshold and should attract buyers if tested. Holding above that level would help preserve the broader consolidation pattern currently in place. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management… Read More
