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Market Updates

Morning Brief

January 28th, 2025

Square version of the Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategists logo.

Headline News:

The S&P 500 futures are up ten points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 40 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up two points and are trading in-line with fair value.

Contracts linked to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials are higher after yesterday’s AI-led slide. Indicated opening gains are slim compared to the scope of yesterday’s losses.

Treasury yields are higher after sliding in response to the stock market scare yesterday. The 10-year yield is up three basis points to 4.56%.

Political news still dominates headlines after President Trump said he wants tariffs larger than 2.5% on foreign pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and metals, according to Bloomberg.

(Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager)

 

Markets:

The S&P 500 sold off sharply, falling below the 20-day moving average. The buyers stepped in, and the index rallied to close at 6,012.28 and is now just under potential resistance at 6,017.31. Also, the down volume was only 52% of the total volume, and the RSI index did not close below the 50 level. We feel the buyers could return today, push the S&P 500 higher, and potentially close above 6,017.31 today.

We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish.    

John N. Lilly III CPFA
Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠
Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠
Portfolio Manager, RJFS
Partner, DJWMG
Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist

 

 

 

Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and futures trading could present additional risk based on underlying commodities investments.

 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and changes of price movements.

 

The percentage of stocks trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The 50-day moving averages are used for short-to-medium-term timeframes, while the 150-day and 200-day moving averages are used for medium-to-long-term ones. Signals can be derived from overbought/oversold levels, crosses above/below 50%, and bullish/bearish divergences.

 

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stocks of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represents approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index.

 

 

 The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investors’ results will vary. Opinions expressed are those of the author, John N. Lilly III, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. “There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecast provided herein will prove to be correct. “The information contained was received from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Investing always involves risk, and you may incur a profit or loss. No investment strategy can guarantee success. The charts and/or tables presented herein are for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered as the sole basis for your investment decision. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, different financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets. 

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any company’s stock mentioned above.

 

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value.  US government bonds are issued and guaranteed due to the federal government’s timely principal and interest payment.  Bond prices and yields are subject to change based on market conditions and availability. If bonds are sold prior to maturity, you may receive more or less than your initial investment. Holding bonds to term allows redemption at par value. There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and bond prices. Generally, when interest rates rise, bond prices fall, and when interest rates fall, bond prices generally rise.

The Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) is a stock market index made up of 103 equity securities issued by 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the NASDAQ. It is a modified capitalization-weighted index. It is based on exchange and not an index of U.S.-based companies. 

The Russell 2000 Index is a stock market index that measures the performance of the 2,000 smaller companies included in the Russell 3000 Index. It is managed by London’s FTSE Russell Group and is widely regarded as a bellwether of the U.S. economy because it focuses on smaller companies that focus on the U.S. market.

 

 

 

 

 

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