Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 4 points and are trading slightly below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 6 points and are trading slightly below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 24 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Equity futures trade down with only modest losses, indicative of a market in consolidation mode after making a big move up over a short period of time. A few mega-cap stocks sport decent gains this morning, boosting the broader market. Cleveland Fed President Mester (not an FOMC voter) said rates would need to go higher than 5%, according to CNBC. In related central bank news, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its official cash rate by 50 bps to 5.25% against expectations for a 25-bps increase. The 2-yr Treasury note yield is unchanged at 3.83%, and the 10-yr note yield is up two basis points to 3.35%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.1% to 101.70. WTI crude oil futures are unchanged at $80.72/bbl, and natural gas futures are up 0.3% to $2.11/mmbtu. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 4.1%, with purchase applications falling 4.0% and refinancing applications declining… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 12 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 54 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 33 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The stock market is poised for a higher open, with Nasdaq 100 futures outperforming somewhat. The continued resilience to selling efforts has fostered carryover buying interest this morning. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon said in his annual letter to shareholders that the fallout from the regional banking crisis would have repercussions for years to come, but that it is nothing like the 2008 financial crisis. The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate unchanged at 3.60%, as expected. Separately, Finland joins NATO today, becoming its 31st member state. Treasury yields are moving higher this morning. The 2-yr note yield is up three basis points to 4.02%, and the 10-yr note yield is up four basis points to 3.46%. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 for the fourth day closing higher at 4124.51 and has rallied 4.4% from the 3/28/2023 low of 3951.53.… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 4 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 91 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 122 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. OPEC+ surprised markets with news that it will reduce oil production by another 1 million barrels per day starting in May, according to Bloomberg. According to FT, Saudi Arabia was “irritated” with the Biden Administration after ruling out new purchases of oil to refill the SPR. WTI crude oil futures are up 6.6% to $80.64/bbl. Equity futures indicate a mixed open, with the Dow outperforming as money flows into blue-chip names, with Chevron (CVX) a favored spot. China’s March Caixin Manufacturing PMI was down to 50.0 from 51.6 last month (expected 51.7). This comes ahead of the March ISM Manufacturing Index (Briefing.com consensus 47.5%; prior 47.7%) release this morning at 10:00 a.m. ET. The 2-yr Treasury note yield is up two basis points to 4.09%, and the 10-yr note yield is unchanged at 3.50%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.2% to 102.33. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy)… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 32 points and are trading 0.8% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 110 points and are trading 0.9% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 217 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value. The equity futures market points to a higher open after yesterday’s late afternoon bounce off the session lows. Notably, many major overseas indices trade on a firmly higher note currently. There’s some modest buying interest in the Treasuries this morning. The 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.06%, and the 10-yr note yield is unchanged at 3.56%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.1% to 102.51. Energy complex futures trade up ahead of the open. WTI crude oil futures are up 1.1% to $74.00/bbl, and natural gas futures are up 0.1% to $2.15/mmbtu. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index rose 2.9%, with purchase applications jumping 5.0% while refinancing applications rose 2.0%. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off to the 20-day moving average at 3954.51 but rallied to close lower on the day at 3971.21. Volume has been lower in… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are unchanged and are trading roughly in line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are unchanged and are trading roughly in line with fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 8 points and are trading slightly above fair value. The stock market is poised to open somewhat flat, with market participants lacking conviction on either side of the tape. Money flows this morning looks a lot like yesterday’s session, with bank stocks showing nice gains while lagging mega-cap stocks weigh down the broader market. Treasury yields continue to climb this morning, reflecting the sentiment shift around bank stocks. The 2-yr note yield is back above 4.00%, up three basis points to 4.02%. The 10-yr note yield is up four basis points to 3.56%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.3% to 102.56. Energy complex futures trade in mixed fashion. WTI crude oil futures are up 0.1% to $72.86/bbl, and natural gas futures are down 0.9% to $2.19/mmbtu. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 gapped higher to start the day but sold off late in the day to close lower at 3977.53. The index… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 27 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 56 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 222 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. The stock market is poised for a higher open, with bank stocks leading the charge following reports that First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA) will acquire all deposits and loans of Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB). Also, President Biden said that FDIC insurance could be tapped for deposits above $250,000 if additional banks fail, according to Reuters. Treasury yields are moving higher this morning. The 2-yr note yield is up 18 basis points to 3.95%, and the 10-yr note yield is up eight basis points to 3.46%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.1% to 103.04. Energy complex futures trade mixed. WTI crude oil futures are up 1.4% to $70.26/bbl, and natural gas futures are down 3.2% to $2.29/mmbtu. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 closed higher at 3970.99 and above both the 20-day and 200-day moving averages. The RSI index is now at 49.98 and just… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 36 points and are trading 0.9% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 95 points and are trading 0.8% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 294 points and are trading 0.8% above fair value. The equity futures market has a positive disposition this morning. Investors are feeling less anxious about the banking industry following a Bloomberg report indicating the Treasury Department is looking at ways to guarantee all bank deposits, if necessary, without congressional approval. Also, Treasury Secretary Yellen’s prepared remarks to the American Bankers Association, according to CNBC, indicated that the government is prepared to intervene again if “smaller institutions suffer deposit runs that pose the risk of contagion.” A rebound in the bank stocks following the aforementioned news has been integral to this morning’s gains. First Republic Bank (FRC) is among the top performers from the banking sector on reports that it’s pursuing strategic alternatives, including a possible sale. There’s also some contrarian buying interest helping along the equity futures market after the BofA Global Fund Manager Survey showed that pessimism is near a 20-year low. The Treasury market is under selling pressure… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 9 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 17 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 119 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The equity futures market has been mixed this morning. Investors are hesitant after yesterday’s rally due to weakness again in bank stocks, particularly First Republic Bank (FRC), acting as a headwind. Reports indicate that banks borrowed $11.9 billion from the Bank Term Funding Program and a record $153 billion from the Fed’s discount window for the week ending March 15. In other central bank news, The People’s Bank of China announced a 25-bps cut to the reserve requirement ratio, which will be effective March 27. Treasury yields are fading this morning. The 10-yr note yield is down eight basis points to 3.50%, and the 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.11%. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied strongly, surpassing the 200-day moving average at 3937.84 to close higher at 3960.28. The volume came in above average at 3,571,793,664 with up… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 5 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 34 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 90 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The equity futures market is mixed this morning as investors weigh ongoing concerns about the banking sector after Bloomberg reported that First Republic Bank (FRC) is considering a sale and Fitch placed Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) on rating watch negative. The Nasdaq 100 futures have been outperforming due to some favoritism for high-quality growth names, helped along by pleasing earnings and guidance from Adobe (ADBE). Participants are nervously anticipating the European Central Bank (ECB) policy rate decision at 9:15 a.m. ET. Reports suggest the ECB is still leaning toward a 50-basis points rate hike. The 2-yr Treasury note yield is down two basis points to 3.94%, and the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 3.46%. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a wide range with massive volume of 3,666,848,000 and managed to close higher at 3891.93. The index remained… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 74 points and are trading 1.9% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 188 points and are trading 1.4% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 581 points and are trading 1.8% below fair value. A sentiment-driven retreat has taken root in the equity futures market as issues at Credit Suisse (CS) reignite selling efforts in the financial sector. Notably, Credit Suisse’s largest shareholder, Saudi National Bank, said it could not offer further help. That revelation has stoked large losses in European bank stocks and has stirred renewed angst in the banking sector here in the U.S. Other limiting factors this morning include reports that the Fed is mulling tougher capital requirements for midsize banks, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink highlighting in his annual letter the potential for a liquidity crunch, and weakness in the mega-cap stocks. China reported mixed industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment data for February in front of the retail sales and Producer Price Index reports from the U.S. at 8:30 a.m. ET. Treasuries and the dollar reflect this morning’s risk-off mentality. The 2-yr note yield is down 14 basis points… Read More
