Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 10 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 57 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 68 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The stock market is poised for a modestly higher open ahead of the extended holiday weekend. Markets are closed on Monday for Memorial Day. Reports indicate that negotiators are close to a deal to raise the debt ceiling for two years while cutting government spending; however, separate reports suggest support from party members on both sides of the aisle is not guaranteed. Market participants are also awaiting key economic data this morning. Namely, the PCE Price Index and core-PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will be released as part of the Personal Income and Spending Report for April at 8:30 a.m. ET. Treasuries are little changed from yesterday’s settlement levels. The 2-yr note yield is up one basis point to 4.51%, and the 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 3.79%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.3% to 103.91. WTI crude oil futures up 1.0% to… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 29 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 287 points and are trading 2.1% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 66 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. A huge gain in a semiconductor name after the company beat earnings estimates and raised guidance, along with other semiconductor stocks trading higher in solidarity, has driven the outperformance of the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 futures. Meanwhile, debt ceiling uncertainty has kept the broader market in check. The angst around the debt ceiling has escalated after Fitch Ratings put the nation’s AAA rating on “watch negative.” Also, Congressional members will leave Washington for Memorial Day but will return to vote on legislation if a debt ceiling deal is reached, according to The Hill. Fitch’s action has fueled selling in the Treasury market. The 2-yr note yield is up seven basis points to 4.41%, and the 10-yr note yield is up four basis points to 3.75%. Elsewhere, Germany’s Q1 GDP was revised to show a contraction of 0.3% after a 0.4% contraction in Q4, meeting the technical definition of recession with… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 16 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 61 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 134 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. Weakness in stock futures is a reflection of more skittishness about the debt ceiling. Reports indicate that discussions have reached an impasse and that no additional meetings are scheduled at this time. Treasuries reflect some flight to safety action. The 2-yr note yield is down six basis points to 4.28%, and the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 3.67%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its official cash rate by 25 bps to 5.50% and indicated that the terminal rate had been reached. The weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index dropped 4.6%, with purchase applications falling 4.0% and refinance applications dropping 5.0%. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off below two support levels and closed at 4145.58. The volume was higher, with 2,413,644,800 shares traded, but the down volume was only 55% of the total. The RSI index also dove… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 12 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 50 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 91 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. Yesterday’s meeting between President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy did not result in a debt ceiling deal, but both sides will continue to negotiate. Overall, market participants continue to trade with some hesitancy as the S&P 500 continues to run into resistance at the 4,200 level. Flash Manufacturing PMI readings from Germany and the U.K. missed expectations, pointing to a deepening contraction in activity while France’s reading was ahead of estimates, but it also reflected contraction. Treasury yields are inching higher. The 2-yr note yield is up four basis points to 4.38% and the 10-yr note yield is up two basis points to 3.74%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.3% to 103.54. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 was little changed and closed lower at 4192.63 with lower volume of 2,192,487,680. The index traded below support at 4186.92, but buyers stepped in at… Read More
Windsor Wealth congratulates Mrs. Beverly Nordholz for being awarded an honorary diploma from Gainesville High School! I met Beverly in 1991 when I walked into my dorm room at McWhorter Hall on the University of Georgia campus. She was there with my new roommate Kris Nordholz setting up his room. Ever since that time, the only time Beverly has not had a smile on her face when she saw me was if Gainesville High School lost at anything. Kris has been a great friend to this day, and Kary Nordholz is also a great friend. I thank all three of them for making me the Red Elephant fan I am today.
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 2 points and are trading slightly above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are flat and are trading in line with fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 24 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Stock futures have seen mixed action this morning, yet moves are relatively modest. Uncertainty about the debt ceiling continues to loom over the market. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reiterated in an interview that early June is a “hard deadline” for the debt ceiling, and the odds that the US can pay all its bills on June 15 are “quite low” without a debt ceiling increase, according to NBC News. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, though, said he had a “productive” call with President Biden and will resume debt ceiling negotiations today, according to the NY Times. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (FOMC voter) said in a CNBC interview that it’s a close call between raising rates in June or skipping a meeting, adding that if the Fed skips in June, it does not mean the tightening cycle is over. Separately, the G7 released a joint statement calling on China to “play by international… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 11 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 9 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 92 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. Stock futures sport gains, albeit somewhat modest, fueled by carryover momentum from yesterday’s rally and ongoing optimism about debt ceiling discussions. Positive price action in several mega cap stocks on this options expiration day has been a supportive factor this morning. There’s some emerging hope, too, that the S&P 500 will break out above the 4,200 level. Market participants will be watching that key level, as well as the 11:00 a.m. ET panel discussion with Fed Chair Powell and former Fed Chair Bernanke regarding perspectives on monetary policy. Japan’s Nikkei reached its highest level since 1990 despite the country reporting hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index data for April. The 2-yr Treasury note yield is unchanged at 4.27%, and the 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 3.66%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.3% to 103.25. Energy complex futures trade in mixed fashion. WTI crude oil futures are up 1.3%… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 8 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 37 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 18 points and are trading fractionally above fair value. Stock futures are modestly higher, driven by carryover momentum from yesterday’s rally, continued strength in regional bank stocks, and a positive response to earnings results from one of the nation’s largest retailers. Ongoing optimism about the debt ceiling discussions is also helping. Treasuries are little changed from yesterday’s settlement levels. The 2-yr note yield is up three basis points to 4.18%, and the 10-yr note yield is up three basis points to 3.60%. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 broke out of the six-day base, closing sharply higher at 4158.77. The volume was higher, with 2,421,476,096 shares traded, and 81% was up volume. Also, RSI closed substantially higher at 56.84 in support of the rally. Traders appeared to be encouraged that a debt ceiling deal would get done before the deadline and that news could be a catalyst to possibly move the S&P 500… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 15 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 29 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 130 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. Stock futures have been sporting a positive disposition so far this morning. Some optimism about the debt ceiling talks, along with encouraging deposit growth in large regionals, seem to be overshadowing lingering worries about economic growth after a large retailer indicated that sales trends softened in the first quarter. Treasuries are little changed from yesterday’s settlement levels. The 2-yr note yield is unchanged at 4.07%, and the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 3.51%. The MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 5.7%, with purchase applications declining 4.8% and refinancing applications dropping 8.0%. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 tested resistance at 4133.13 and then sold off below the 20-day moving average at 4122.94 to closer lower at 4109.90. The volume was slightly higher, with 2,172,300,544 shares traded, and the down volume was only 61% of the total. The RSI index also moved… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 6 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 3 points and are trading roughly in line with fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 90 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. Equity futures trade on a softer note. There’s not a big negative bias, yet not a lot of follow-through buying either. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lags due to a decent loss in a large retail home center, which beat earnings estimates, but disappointed with sales and issued below-consensus FY24 EPS guidance and revenue guidance. Uncertainty about the debt ceiling is still a limiting factor after Treasury Secretary Yellen warned again yesterday that the Treasury will likely not be able to meet all the government’s obligations potentially as early as June 1. President Biden will meet with congressional leaders to discuss the debt ceiling today at 3:00 p.m. ET, according to Reuters. Concerns about global growth are another factor weighing on sentiment this morning after China reported a slate of disappointing economic data from April, including retail sales, fixed asset investment, and industrial production. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio… Read More
