Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 21 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 110 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 71 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The current disposition of the futures market implies a down open for the major indices. Losses will be relatively modest in scope, but the buying impulse has been quieted in the wake of major semi company’s AI platform announcement at its GTC Conference and the Bank of Japan’s decision to exit its negative interest rate policy, which had been in place since 2016, and to end its formal yield curve control policy. The BOJ still made it clear, however, that it will stick with an accommodative monetary policy. That’s not to say investors were truly disappointed by these developments, only that they probably have some headline fatigue given all of the talk/previews/speculation ahead of these events. They are also cognizant that the Fed is on deck now, ready to release a new dot plot on Wednesday that may or may not show a change in its median rate-cut projections for… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 38 points and are trading 0.8% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 207 points and are trading 1.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 65 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. A positive bias in early trading has been driven by mega-cap leadership. Separately, market participants are readying themselves for a big week of macro news, highlighted by central bank policy meeting decisions for the Bank of Japan, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Federal Reserve, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of England. The focal point there will be on whether the Bank of Japan votes to exit its negative interest rate policy, which would mark its first rate hike since 2007, and the Fed’s dot plot, which will convey the Fed’s median estimate for the number of rate cuts it expects this year. The March NAHB Housing Market Index at 10:00 a.m. ET is the lone release of note on today’s economic calendar. The 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.71%, and the 10-yr note yield is unchanged at 4.30%. WTI crude futures +0.6% to… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up ten points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 75 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 18 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Contracts linked to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are higher due to pre-open gains in tech stocks. The vibe could shift, though, in response to the latest reading on inflation in the form of the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 ET. Treasury yields are little changed in front of the report. The 2-yr note yield is up two basis points to 4.55%, and the 10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.09%. Other data today includes the NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, which declined to 89.4 in February from 89.9. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded below the 5,111.06 support level for most of the day, but the index rallied and closed at 5,117.94. The trading had a low volume day of 2,185,553,920, and the up volume was only 57% of the total. This morning, the CPI report for… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 15 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 74 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 102 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The market is poised for a lower open due in part to pre-open losses in some mega-cap names. The negative bias is also stemming from carryover downside momentum after Friday’s consolidation-related declines. Treasury yields are little changed. The 10-yr note yield is unchanged at 4.08%, and the 2-yr note yield is up one basis point to 4.50%. There is no US economic data of note today, but Tuesday’s calendar features a potentially market-moving inflation reading in the form of the February Consumer Price Index at 8:30 ET. Separately, WTI crude oil futures are down 0.5% to $77.65/bbl. Natural gas futures are down 0.7% to $1.79/mmbtu. Copper futures are up 0.6% to $3.92/lb. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off all day and closed lower at 5,123.69. The index is now above the potential support at 5,111.06, which we feel will be breached this morning… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 17 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 104 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 100 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. Stock futures indicate a lower open following yesterday’s declines. Pre-open losses in mega-cap stocks have pressured the market, along with a growing sense that stocks are due for some consolidation after the recent runup that brought the major indices to all-time highs. Treasury yields are lower, but that has not translated into support for stocks. The 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.19% and the 2-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.58%. Market participants will receive the February ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 10:00 ET today. Other data include Final February S&P Global U.S. Services PMI (prior 52.5) at 9:45 ET and January Factory Orders (Briefing.com consensus -2.5%; prior 0.2%) at 10:00 ET. In other news, Chinese officials set a 5.0% target for GDP growth and a 3.0% target for CPI growth in 2024 during the first day of the National People’s Congress (Michael Gibbs, Managing… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down eight points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down eight points and are trading fractionally below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 125 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. Contracts linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average are lower, while stock futures for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 are flattish. The market is lacking direction this morning in front of busy week. Fed Chair Powell will deliver his semiannual monetary policy testimony to a House committee on Wednesday and a Senate panel on Thursday. Mr. Powell is expected to reiterate the view that there is no rush to cut rates, echoing comments from other Fed officials recently. There is no US economic data of note today, but this week’s calendar features the February Employment Situation Report on Friday. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 marches on! The index powered higher and closed at another new all-time high of 5,137.08 on Friday. Also, the index moved out of a six-day base, increasing the potential for more upside this week. The RSI index did manage… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 19 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 87 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 121 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. Stock futures indicate a lower open after, pressured by pre-open losses in mega-cap stocks. There is also a lingering sense that the market is due for some consolidation after a big run that has the major indices sitting near all-time highs. Yesterday’s session brought the Nasdaq Composite within striking distance of its 2021 all-time high close. Treasury yields are lower this morning, but that hasn’t translated into a positive catalyst for stocks. The 2-yr note yield is down four basis points to 4.67%, and the 10-yr note yield is down four basis points to 4.28%. Earlier, the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index sank 5.6% following last week’s 106.% drop. Market participants will receive the second estimate for Q4 GDP at 8:30 ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded down to the support level at 5,048.39, and buyers stepped in for a small rally, but… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down five points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down eight points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 30 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Contracts tied to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average are little changed, albeit slightly negative, ahead of the new week. The market is lacking direction in front of some potentially market-moving events this week, including earnings from some influential names. There are also some notable economic releases this week, like the January New Home Sales report today at 10:00 ET. Treasury yields are little changed from Friday. The 2-yr note yield is down four basis points to 4.68%, and the 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.24%. Separately, the US and UK carried out large-scale military strikes against sites in Yemen over the weekend, according to The New York Times. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 tried to rally on Friday, but the sellers came in, and the index closed lower at 5,088.80. The close was near the… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up three points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down eight points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 50 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The market is lacking directional drivers this morning following yesterday’s rally. Contracts tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 trade slightly lower. Treasury yields are little changed from yesterday. The 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.70% and the 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.31%. The US Dollar Index is down 0.2% to 103.77. Commodity futures are trading lower in front of the open at the stock market. WTI crude oil futures are down 1.8% to $77.21/bbl; natural gas futures are down 3.9% to $1.76/mmbtu; and copper futures are down 0.7% to $3.87/lb. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 soared higher by 2.11% and set a new all-time high, closing at 5,087.03. However, the RSI index did not set a new high and has closed lower than the last two all-time highs that were achieved this year. Also, the up… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 60 points and are trading 1.3% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 348 points and are trading 2.0% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 135 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The stock market is back in rally mode this morning thanks to a major semiconductor company’s much better-than-expected earnings results, sending shares sharply higher ahead of the open. The report renewed the market’s fervor for AI-related trades and boosted other semiconductor and semiconductor equipment makers in sympathy, acting as added support for the market. In Japan, the Nikkei Stock Average exceeded its record closing high from 1989, benefiting from a surge in semiconductor and technology-related shares after NVIDIA’s results. Treasury yields are little changed from yesterday in front of today’s economic releases. The 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 4.34% and the 2-yr note yield is up three basis points to 4.70%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 tested the 20-day moving average again and rallied back to close at 4,981.90 and above resistance at 4,975.29. So, we feel the recent uptrend has… Read More
