Bad to Worse
It seems that way at the moment, doesn’t it? There’s a war in Europe. Each headline appears worse than the one before, and as this trend intensifies, bad on bad, fear on fear, the adaptive forces of humanity take charge – let’s make lemonade. Elon is buying Twitter. Ha…. Mr. Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. bought insurer Alleghany Corp. for $11.6 billion – Berkshire’s biggest acquisition in six years. Families are concerned about inflation and the impact higher prices have on their ability to maintain lifestyles. Equity markets, we believe, have the most recent headlines baked into the mix. We believe the most recent Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data will most likely represent the inflationary peak: we expect inflation to begin subsiding. But not in the immediate future: Personal Consumer Spending (PCE), the preferred index of the Federal Reserve, just posted an all-time high of 6.6%, according to The Bureau Of Economic Analysis. Higher than last quarter. Highest in 40 years, give or take. Travel with me; get aboard my time machine. Let’s go back to the late ‘70s and early ’80s. Remember “Stagflation” = high inflation & slowing growth. Our group’s last newsletter, published in January, hinted at this phenomenon: “I just heard… Read More
What Women Need to Know about Divorce & Widow Social Security Benefits
April, 28 2022 at 12:00 PM
Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategists will present What Women Need to know About Divorce & Widow Social Security Benefits with former SSA Administrator Cindy Lundquist at noon on April 28.
Morning Brief
Headline News: Wall Street is set to open sharply lower after Goldman Sachs (GS) missed expectations for Q4 earnings and was trading down 4% in pre-market trading. Also, Treasury yields marched higher as the 2-year yield moved above 1% for the first time since February 2020, and the 10-year note moved to 1.83%, its highest yield since January 2020. Meanwhile, recent data indicates the spread of the omicron variant may be slowing after New York had the seven-day average of daily new cases decline last week. Markets: The S&P 500 traded below support at 4646.41 on Friday but rallied to close higher at 4662.85. However, RSI did not move about the 50 level to support the rally. This morning the index is set to open lower with a projected open of 4610.25. That would be close to the 1/10/2022 low of 4582.24 to start the day. If support is broken, selling could potentially accelerate and break the pattern of high lows going back to the 12/3/2021 low of 4540.51. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners &… Read More
IF
Recently I spoke with a fine lady ill with the bug-of-our time. The conversation, texting, concluded with a comment about living in strange times. If only stock prices weren’t so high…. If only we could go back to normal…. If only I had…. If only…. Often, things are not as we wish them to be. We do not get to direct the economy, disease, politics, our families, or much of anything else, except maybe, our thoughts and our actions. We get to make investment decisions within the world we are given, the circumstances that are, the present. We are not forecasters. We do not pretend to have a construct of the future and then invest accordingly. We cannot see the future. For us, the uncertainty of the future is the only certainty we know. So, for us, it’s a more-like-it-than-not world. What does that look like? The economy is expanding – The Institute for Supply Management cataloged the 14th month of Manufacturing and Service sector growth. According to The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), GDP for the 2nd quarter grew at 6.6% Inflation has steadied at 3.6% according to BEA and appears to be receding. Corporate Earnings, according to S&P… Read More
Big December 2020
Everything about this year seems BIG. A pandemic. Big swings in equity markets: Down 35% from intraday high (February 19th to the low, March 23rd ), up 70% from that low to yesterday’s (December 17th) high, HUZZAH…. Big intellects, Big money, Big pharma and Big government intersect to provide us not one, but two vaccines with Big efficacy, 94% or higher. In a Big hurry – never in the history of our world, has a vaccine been developed, manufactured or distributed this quickly: Big, Big and Big. Big faith…. In Capitalism, Inventiveness, and in Us: America. Merry Christmas. Carlos Dominguez – CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™, Portfolio Manager, RJFS When you get a minute try out our risk discovery tool – tell your friends https://windsorwealth.management/my-risk-o-meter/ Sources: Photo by: Jamie Hagan @dearjamie Sources are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not, authorize, or sponsor any of the listed sources. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any source or the collection or use of information regarding any source’s users and/or members. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Any opinions are those of Carlos Dominguez and not necessarily those of… Read More
Celebrations
Thanksgiving just passed, “And we might remind ourselves also, that if those men setting out from Delftshaven had been daunted by the troubles they saw around them, then we could not this autumn be thankful for a fair land.” *, I hope you rejoiced as we did with giving thanks for the blessings of living in a free country. The election has come and mostly gone, the world did not end, equity markets did not melt, but instead sighed in relief like the rest of the world. And in doing so, The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a new 30,046 record on November 24th – let me hear the cheers. Covid vaccines are popping out of the woodwork thanks to a combination of capitalism, science, and government cooperation. We may be enjoying this summer kinda like we used to; how about that! GDPNow The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s is estimating growth of 5.6% for the fourth quarter. If that comes to pass, it looks like we may be right where we started at the beginning of the year: Hurrah! The Institute for Supply Management’s October Manufacturing ISM® report registered a manufacturing increase of 3.9%, reaching a 59.3% level, the highest since… Read More
Perfect is the Enemy of Good
Flying is a new experience for me. I like new challenges; aviation offers plenty. But it is the learning and the discoveries that are fun. As in all new endeavors, a guide is required. My Certified Flying Instructor has been flying for over 44 years. Yes, he has the patience of Job. A line from an old movie, “The Battle of Britain,” comes to mind. “You can teach monkeys to fly better than that,” I think he’s thought it but is too polite to say it. Just as in flying, to engage in planning and investing, employing a logical process increases the chances of getting there. Our CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professionals* strive to become our client’s guides. Their job is to increase the probability of a successful outcome: In flying parlance, getting there and landing safely. You guessed it, a flight plan is required. Just as in real life, we believe every family should spend time, effort, and creativity to define the future they seek. They may not attain it entirely, but over time, as in flight, adapting the flight plan to current conditions will get you there. Maybe not on the day and time you scheduled initially, but most… Read More
Elections and Stocks: Wishes & Myths
Well, somebody did it…. We cannot get away from it. The political noise has started, and it is intensifying. Our friends and advocates are asking: What does it mean for my portfolio? “The world, oops, the Bull-Market, as we know it, is going to come to an end if ******* gets elected.” So goes the recent spectacle of opinions. Some of the uncertainties surrounding this election cycle will most likely spill over into stock prices, up or down, the effect most likely will be temporary and short-lived; no one knows or can predict the impact or direction, in my opinion. Myth – Election results make a difference in portfolio returns. Fact – When investing in equities, the probability of having a positive return in the first twelve months after the initial investment occurs approximately 73% – 74% of the time: Which syncs, admirably, with Schwab’s research finding that equity markets ended in positive territory in 17 out of 23 presidential elections = 74% of the time. Democrats vs. Republicans – Myth: “Stocks always do better when Republicans win.” Fact – According to Fidelity: If Republicans sweep the white house and congress, during the first two years of the presidency, stock… Read More
Mid-Year Newsletter
If you’re reading it, it is history; you know the story. Planning and investing is about achieving favorable outcomes in the future, the unknown. Did you even guess you’d be wearing a mask from time to time this summer? We do not know the future. We would like a peek from time to time, but that is not likely to happen. We know that we do not know. Outcome-based planning, like investing, relies on trying to understand the world as it is, not as we would like it to be. And, for our practice, that means assessing likelihoods. We believe that determining the best, highest probability of reaching your family’s desired outcome consists of quantifying your goals, which means identifying a number, associating it with an outcome, and establishing an end-date for achieving it. Once quantified, our practice develops an investment strategy designed to provide you with the best odds of attaining your desired goals. Now comes the magic: We test and stress test your plan through each known market crisis to determine viability. Yes, each crisis du-jour: depressions, booms, natural disasters, wars, and even elections. And the impact they have had on your current portfolio and, therefore,… Read More