Wealth Management Firm Near Me - Facebook Icon IMG  Wealth Planning Near Me - Certified Financial Planners Twitter Icon IMG   Find A Financial Advisor Near Me - Wealth Planners Linkedin Icon IMG 

678.971.1337

Access Your Account

☰ Menu
Planning & Economy

How Much Further?

October 18th, 2023

Now the question we are getting is: when will this bear market end?

Some pundits have suggested that the following events may act as the catalysts that mark the end of the downdraft: The mid-terms, when Republicans take a majority in Congress, when the Federal Reserve stops raising rates and inflation subsides, after we experience our next recession, and so on.

In our experience, the “bottom is in” when buyers return: Brilliant, right? Investors have to glean that low prices justify taking the risk to achieve a higher return in the future. Again brilliant, right?

Then there’s an old Wall Street adage: “Buy at the wake, Sell at the wedding”; are we hearing the bagpipe dirge yet? I don’t hear them yet, but a few pipers are beginning to paradiddle. For example, according to the Wall Street Journal, day traders have all but disappeared. Crypto and most of the meme stocks are now unpopular and trodden.

Measuring the percentage of all Operating Company Stocks* 30% or more below their yearly highs helps us understand the depth of bear markets. This statistic recently reached 57%. The last two times this statistic surpassed 60% were in 2020 during the pandemic and 2009 during the credit crisis. We do not believe the current period resembles the severity of either crisis. More often than not, in previous periods, equities have begun new bull markets around the levels we are currently seeing. We are not overly optimistic that history will repeat itself nor that the worst is over.

Our economy seems to be slowing down. The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to eliminate inflation by reducing demand. The Central Bank appears to be getting the desired effect: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) continues to weaken, as does Industrial Production, Consumer Spending, and Housing Starts, among a few of the many economic indicators.

At this moment, the headwinds seem to be strengthening; we believe this storm will be briefer than past squalls.

 

 

Carlos Dominguez – CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™, Portfolio Manager, RJFS

 

 

When you get a minute try out our risk discovery tool – tell your friends.

https://windsorwealth.management/my-risk-o-meter/

 

 

 

 

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, marketed as Windsor Wealth Planners and Strategist. Investment advisory services offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc. Windsor Wealth Planners and Stategist is separately owned and operated and not independently registered as a broker-dealer or investment adviser.

Raymond James financial advisors may only conduct business with residents of the states and/or jurisdications for which they are propertly registered.  Therefore, a response to a request for information may be delayed. 

Please note that not all of the investments and services mentioned are available in every state.  Investors outside of the United States are subject to securities and tax regulations within their application jurisdications that are not addressed on this site.  Contact your local Raymond James office for information and availability. Links are being provided for information purposes only. 

Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. 

Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website's users and/or members.