Headline News: U.S. stock futures are set to open higher after the market rallied on Monday on news the FDA granted full approval to the Pfizer (PFE) BioNTech’s Covid vaccine. The move was seen as a positive for the continued health of the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, the second-quarter earnings season is winding down, and Refinitiv reported that S&P 500 earnings are set to grow by 94.7% year over year. Markets: The S&P 500 rallied for the third day achieving a new intraday all-time high of 4489.88, then closing at 4479.53. Volume was below average for the second day in a row, and all three internal indicators did not move to a new high. The V-shaped rally has been impressive, but we feel the index has moved too far too fast and needs to consolidate the gains. Potential support is now at 4533.32, and possible resistance is now at 4489.88. A base at these levels with some sideways trading would be helpful to continue the rally. We are also moving back to a short-term bullish stance. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures are higher as investors appear to be back in a risk-on mood to start the week. Large-cap oil companies such as Chevron (CVX), Exxon (XOM), and Schlumberger (SLB) were all higher by 2% in pre-market trading. Meanwhile, the rise in COVID-19 cases has created fears the global recovery could slow down. However, the FDA could approve the Pfizer (PFE) vaccine this week, which has calmed some of the concerns. Markets: The S&P 500 rallied again on Friday and closed higher at 4441.67. The index moved past a vital resistance level at 4422.73 on lower volume of 1,826,656,896. All three internal indicators also moved higher in support of the rally. S&P 500 futures are set to open higher and above potential resistance at 4544.32, setting the tone for a possible move higher for a third day. The higher open would have the index regaining all ground lost from the recent selloff and potentially set up another new uptrend. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative,… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street was set to open lower as concerns over a slowing economy and tapering of monetary stimulus. This, along with the continued spread of the delta variant, has the S&P 500 set for the worst weekly performance since mid-June. Also, WTI crude oil was down 9% for the week, along with copper down 7%. Investors appear to be turning cautious and worried the trading could be choppy going forward. Markets: The S&P 500 moved down to support at 4373.00, briefly moved lower, and then rallied to end the day higher at 4405.80. The trading came with increased volume as 2,200,109,312 shares were traded. The index also moved close to a 38.2% Fibonacci level, so we know there are now two possible support levels at the same price level. So, there could be a retest of these support levels today and then a likely late-day rally again. If so, we believe the recent sell-off could be over for now. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures were sharply lower on concerns the Federal Reserve will begin to slow the current monetary stimulus. The Fed minutes showed that the central bank is preparing to begin a tapering policy in the, possibly, next few months. Meanwhile. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to a 17-month low last week. Initial claims fell by 29,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000 for the week ended August 14th. The report showed another month of improving job growth despite increases in COVID-19 cases. Markets: The S&P 500 sold off heavy on Wednesday and closed at 4400.27 below the support level at 4422.73. The advance/decline line moved below an uptrend line, and the net new highs also move lower. So, the trading changes the dynamic of the index and has halted the recent uptrend. Our indicators have now moved us to a short-term bearish stance, but we see the intermediate and long-term as bullish. New potential support could come in at 4373.00, and possible resistance is now at 4422.73. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio… Read More
Headline News: Equity stock futures are lower on renewed fears about a slowing U.S. economic recovery. Later today, the Federal Reserve’s July minutes will be released, giving insight into how the Fed views the economy. Investors will be looking to see when the central bank could start tapering its monthly bond-buying program. Meanwhile, Target (TGT) beat second-quarter earnings expectations but was lower in pre-market trading, and Lowe’s (LOW) was higher by 4% after also exceeding earnings expectations. The two earnings beats show retailers are still doing well despite an increase in COVIDE-19 cases. Markets: The S&P 500 moved below support at 4422.73 and rallied late to close lower at 4448.08. Volume was higher with 1,901,499,328 shares traded but was not enough to claim the uptrend is over. We feel there was normal profit-taking, and the test and hold of support were constructive. It also appears the buy the dip trade is still in effect, and today buyers could potentially come back in for new purchases. The market will most likely trade sideways today and possible support will remain at 4422.73. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set for a lower open after the release of the U.S. retail sales report fell more than expected. The Commerce Department data showed sales dropped 1.1% last month versus expectation of a 0.6% increase. Most of the decline came from motor vehicles and parts dealers, which fell 3.9%. The report shows consumers cut back on purchases more than expected due to the delta variant. Meanwhile, Walmart (WMT) reported better second-quarter earnings and was flat in pre-market trading, while Home Depot (HD) also beat estimates the stock was lower by 4% to start the day. Markets: The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high of 4479.71 after a late rally on Monday. RSI moved higher, closing at 67.89 us outside of the overbought zone at 70. The advance/decline line also moved to a new high, and the net new high index continued to march higher in support of the rally. We feel a new uptrend is solidly in place, but the index appears to be moving too far too fast. So, a few days of sideways trading or even some potential profit-taking would be constructive. Possible support will remain at 4422.73. We are currently Intermediate-term… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 and the Dow are set to open at new all-time highs as signs of a slowdown in inflation have cooled the Fed tapering talk. So far, 88% of the companies that have reported earnings have beaten estimates, according to Refinitiv. Also, year-over-year corporate earnings growth is expected to be 92.9%. Markets: The S&P 500 closed at another new all-time high of 4460.83, but volume was well below average, with only 1,628,069,504 shares traded. The advance/decline line and net new high lines moved lower while the RSI did move higher. There appears to be a new uptrend, but the volume and the indicators are not confirming the trend yet. If selling should come in today, there is potential support at 4449.49 We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and futures trading could present additional risk based on underlying commodities investments. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures were flat after the release of the new jobless claims report came in lower than the prior week. The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims declined to 375,000 matching the estimates. Also, the number of insured unemployment gains fell to 2.866 million for the last week of July. That is the lowest level since March of 2020. Meanwhile, excluding food and energy, the producer price index rose 1% versus a 0.5% gain estimate. Markets: The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high of 4447.70 while moving out of the current trading range. The advance/decline line moved to a new high, which we see as confirming the new high. Also, The net new high index moved high for the second day showing more stocks are now participating as the index moves higher. We feel this could potentially be the start of the new uptrend we have been looking for since last week. Today’s economic reports show that inflation has, for now, at least paused, which could lead to another possible new high today. Potential resistance could come in at 4449.49, and possible support remains at 4422.73 We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures are higher after the release of a core inflation report came in lower than expected. July’s Consumer Price Index rose 5.4% year over year and only 0.5% for the month. Excluding food and energy, CPI was higher by 0.3% and up by 4.3% year over year. Meanwhile, total mortgage applications volume rose 2.8% for the week, and applications to purchase new homes rose 2%. Markets: The S&P 500 tested traded above resistance at 4440.82 only to selloff and close lower at 4436.75. The index has now formed another trading range of 4422.73-4445.21 and is starting another base. The advance/decline line did not test the old high, and the RSI index was flat. However, a substantial uptick in the net new high index, which also formed a higher low. We feel a continued increase in the net new high index is needed before starting any new potential uptrend. Potential resistance is now at 4445.21, and possible support remains at 4422.73. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative,… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures are flat as investors await the potential passing of the infrastructure bill. The U.S. Senate has set a vote on the $1 trillion bipartisan bill for 11:00 a.m. ET, and then begin debate on $3.5 trillion in additional investments. Meanwhile, COVID-19 cases have averaged 100,000 for three days in a row, up 35% over the prior week, according to a Reuters tally of public health data. Markets: The S&P 500 traded down to support at 4422.73, rallied off that level, and closed lower for the day at 4432.35. The support test came with only 1,714,619,008 shares traded which shows the selling came with little conviction. We still believe a new uptrend will possibly start soon based on the recent trading action. There is now possible resistance at 4402.82, and that could be tested today. The one bearish issue is the Net new high index continues to move lower, showing only a select few stocks are moving higher. Broad participation by more stocks in the S&P 500 will be needed to get the index past potential resistance and start an uptrend. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. Correction- the potential resistance line should show… Read More
