Headline News: The S&P 500 futures trade five points, or 0.1%, below fair value as the market takes a breather amid tempered hopes for a ceasefire. Russia has refuted a breakthrough in talks with Ukraine, reportedly continuing its attacks near Kyiv despite promising to reduce military operations, according to Bloomberg. Foreign policy analysts have said that Russia is employing a tactical shift to focus on two eastern provinces. The market, though, doesn’t seem too concerned about that situation right now based on the slightly negative bias in the futures market. It appears more likely that the futures market is taking a pause after the S&P 500 rallied 11.0% since March 14.. On the data front, investors will receive the ADP Employment Change report for March (Briefing.com consensus 440,000) at 8:15 a.m. ET and the third estimate for Q4 GDP (Briefing.com consensus 7.1%) at 8:30 a.m. ET. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 6.8% following an 8.1% decline in the prior week. The Treasury yield curve is widening a bit after a brief inversion of the 2s10s spread yesterday. The 2-yr yield is down two basis points to 2.33% while the 10-yr yield is up one basis point to 2.41%.… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures trade 29 points, or 0.6%, above fair value amid positive momentum and continuing hope that Russia and Ukraine can reach a ceasefire soon. Negotiators from both sides will resume peace talks in Turkey today, meeting face-to-face for the first time in over two weeks, according to Reuters. Ukraine is hopeful for a ceasefire, but U.S. officials continue to express their doubts about Russia’s intentions. Strikingly, the 2s10s spread in the Treasury market has now compressed to within ten basis points, stoking speculation of a recession down the road should there be an inversion. That hasn’t bothered the futures market, though, which is appearing more optimistic about the near-term outlook. The 2-yr yield is up ten basis points to 2.44%, and the 10-yr yield is up four basis points to 2.52%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.3% to 98.78 amid relative strength in the euro, which is up 0.5% to 1.1039 amid hope for a ceasefire. WTI crude is down 0.2% to $105.71/bbl. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied again, closing at 4575.52, and is now just under potential resistance at 4590.03. However, the volume during the… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures trade 18 points, or 0.4%, above fair value to start the week amid a carryover of positive momentum. Ostensibly, weaker oil prices ($108.09, -5.81, -5.1%) are helping risk sentiment, although they’re down on growth concerns after Shanghai imposed lockdowns to curb an outbreak of COVID-19. China’s Shanghai Composite eked out a 0.1% gain on Monday. The Treasury market is also reflecting growth concerns by way of curve-flattening activity. The 2-yr yield is up two basis points to 2.31%, while the 10-yr yield is down two basis points to 2.47%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.5% to 99.25 amid relative weakness in the Japanese yen, which is down 1.6% against the dollar after the Bank of Japan offered to buy an unlimited amount of JGBs at 0.25%. That move was consistent with the central bank’s policy of yield curve control. In key corporate news, Apple (AAPL 172.84, -1.88, -1.1%) is planning to cut production for the iPhone SE by roughly 20% and AirPods by more than 10 million units this year amid geopolitical uncertainty, according to TheNikkei. Tesla (TSLA 1067.50, +56.86, +5.6%) will ask shareholders to authorize additional shares to enable another stock split.… Read More
Headline News: The stock market is on track for a higher start as futures on the S&P 500 trade 29 points above fair value. Barring an early reversal, the market will look to rebound from a midweek dip that returned the S&P 500 back below its 200- day moving average (4474). Overnight action saw a mostly lower showing from markets in Asia while European markets trade near their flat lines. President Biden is meeting with NATO allies in Europe with reports suggesting that more sanctions against Russia will be announced. Crude oil holds a modest loss, slipping $0.63, or 0.6%, to $114.30/bbl. Treasuries are on track to give back yesterday’s gains at the open, as the 10-yr yield rises five basis points to 2.37%. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off below support at 4474.19 and closed lower at 4456.24. The selling came on low volume with only 2,174,320,384 shares traded, and RSI turned down, closing at 55.57. Some profit-taking at these leaves was expected and normal after a rally five out of the last six trading days. We feel the index can reclaim the 200-day moving average today and start to build… Read More
Headline News: The stock market is on track for a lower start as futures on the S&P 500 trade 13 points below fair value. The modest weakness in equity futures comes alongside selling in most European markets. President Biden is traveling to Europe today to meet with NATO allies. German Chancellor Scholz said that while his country plans to phase out the use of Russian oil, the change cannot be made overnight. Crude oil is up $2.47, or 2.3%, at $111.74/bbl. Economic data released overnight showed the U.K.’s yr/yr CPI rate rising to 6.2%, its fastest pace of growth in nearly 30 years. In the U.S., the weekly MBA Mortgage Index fell 8.1% after decreasing 1.2% a week ago. The only remaining report on today’s schedule is the February New Home Sales report (Briefing.com consensus 820,000; prior 801,000), which will be released at 10:00 E.T. Treasuries trade near their flat lines, with the 10-yr yield unchanged at 2.37%. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 surprised us by moving past and closing at 4511.61 above the 200-day at 4473.04. The current uptrend has been impressive, but the Advance/Decline Line and the Net new high index… Read More
Headline News: The stock market is on track for a higher start as futures on the S&P 500 trade 20 points above fair value, which will give the benchmark index another chance at reclaiming its 200-day moving average. The early gains in equity futures follow an overnight session that saw a mostly positive showing from Asian equities while European stocks are on the rise. Commodities trade on a mostly lower note after yesterday’s gains, with crude oil down $0.10, or 0.1%, at $112.02/bbl. The overnight session saw a limited set of economic data, while the U.S. session will not feature any noteworthy releases. Treasuries are on track for a lower start, with the 10-yr yield rising two basis points to 2.34%. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 traded up to the 200-day moving average, failed to breakthrough, and closed flat on the day. The index traded down to the 50-day moving average and rallied, so we feel the index might trade between the two moving averages today before continuing the recent uptrend. RSI is still supportive of the uptrend and remains above the 50 level. If selling should come in today, the possible support… Read More
Headline News: The stock market is on track for a modestly lower start as futures on the S&P 500 trade ten points below fair value. Global markets began the new week on a mixed note, while Japan’s Nikkei was closed for Vernal Equinox. A China Eastern Airlines Boeing (BA 180.80, -12.03, -6.2%) 737-800 crashed in Southern China, with reports indicating that there were no survivors among the 132 passengers and crew members. In Ukraine, the country’s leadership refused to give in to Russia’s demand to surrender in the Southeastern city of Mariupol. On a related note, Turkish officials reportedly believe that Ukraine and Russia are close to agreeing on fundamental issues. Most commodity prices are rising again, with crude oil futures up $4.65, or 4.4%, at $109.35/bbl, while gold is little changed at $1926.00/ozt. Treasuries are on track for a lower start, with the 10-yr yield rising three basis points to 2.18%. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied for the fourth day in a row to close higher at 4463.12. The index blew past resistance at 4416.78 and the 50-day moving average at 4432.72 in the process. The volume was massive, with 4,215,236,352… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures trade eight points, or 0.2%, below fair value as the market digests yesterday’s FOMC decision, higher oil prices ($99.97, +4.93, +5.2%), continued curve-flattening activity in the Treasury market, and the latest Russia-Ukraine news. Chinese stocks extended their rebound rally on Thursday, following U.S. markets higher, after China continued to pledge support for the economy. U.S. futures and European stocks, however, have stayed put today amid news that Russia said reports describing progress in peace talks are “wrong,” according to Bloomberg. That news has helped lift oil prices while the Treasury market continues to show concerns about the Fed potentially hindering economic growth with a policy mistake. Yesterday, the Fed delivered a quarter-point hike, as expected, and signaled six more hikes this year. The 2-yr yield is currently down three basis points to 1.94%, and the 10-yr yield is down five basis points to 2.14%. The 5-yr yield, which is down six basis points, is also trading at 2.14%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.4% to 98.24. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied past resistance at 4287.11 and closed higher at 4357.86. The volume came in with… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures trade 60 points, or 1.4%, above fair value in a continuation of yesterday’s rebound rally ahead of key economic data and the Fed’s policy decision. The latest Russia Ukraine headlines might be fueling the gains, even as Russia continues to launch missiles at Kyiv. Briefly, Ukraine President Zelensky said peace talks were sounding more realistic, and Russia’s foreign minister said some parts of a peace deal model are close to an agreement. Mr. Zelensky, however, acknowledged that the two sides are not close to deal while CNBC reminded viewers that Russia’s words should be taken with a grain of salt. Still, the market appears to be relishing the idea of a ceasefire agreement with talks continuing today and foreign equities sporting big gains. On a related note, President Zelensky is scheduled to speak to the U.S. Congress at 9:00 a.m. ET. As for today’s data, investors will receive Retail Sales for February (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) and Import/Export Prices for February at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by the NAHB Housing Market Index for March (Briefing.com consensus 81) and Business Inventories for January at 10:00 a.m. ET. The FOMC will publish its policy statement and updated… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures have recouped overnight losses and trade eight points, or 0.2%, above fair value as oil prices fall to $95 per barrel ($95.02, -7.99, -7.9%). Stocks in China weren’t so lucky on Tuesday, plagued by COVID-19 lockdowns, de-listing concerns, and the potential for U.S. sanctions if found to be helping Russia’s invasion. China’s Shanghai Composite dropped 5.0% (-7.4% for the week), and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 5.7% (-10.4% for the week). The Chinese lockdowns are being cited as a factor driving oil prices lower due to reduced demand. European stocks, meanwhile, are trying to recover, but the Europe Stoxx 600 is still down 0.9% right now. Back on the home front, the Fed will begin its two-policy meeting today while investors wait for the Producer Price Index for February (Briefing.com consensus 1.0%) at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey for March (Briefing.com consensus 9.0) will be released at the same time, followed by TIC Net Long-Term Transactions for January at 4:00 p.m. ET. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 sold down close to support at 4157.8 and had a small rally to close lower at 4173.11.… Read More
