Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 8 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 34 points and are 0.1% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 39 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. Futures for the major indices are modestly higher, with market participants waiting to see if yesterday’s rally will fuel a buy-the-dip trade or a longer phase of consolidation. More central bank news is in play today. Norges Bank raised its key rate by 50 basis points to 1.75% and said it expects to raise the rate further in September. Also, European Central Bank policymaker Schnabel said that she expects another big interest rate hike in September despite the growing risk of recession. On a related note, Eurozone CPI was up 8.9% year-over-year versus 8.6% in June. The U.S. and Taiwan will hold trade and investment talks this fall, according to the Wall Street Journal. Energy complex futures are higher this morning. WTI crude oil futures are up 1.2% to $89.16/bbl. Natural gas futures are up 0.8% to $9.32/mmbtu. Unleaded gasoline futures are up 1.1% to $2.96.gal. Treasury yields are lower, with the… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 35 points and are trading 0.9% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 132 points and are 1.1% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 220 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. Futures for the major indices are down this morning ahead of the July 26-27 FOMC Minutes release at 2:00 p.m. ET today. Target’s (TGT) weaker-than-expected quarterly results are adding to the hesitation in pre-market action. Overseas, the UK’s CPI report was the highest reading in 40 years, up 10.1%year-over-year. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its official cash rate by 50 bps to 3.00%, as expected, continuing a slate of aggressive rate hikes. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index was down 2.3%, with weakness in both purchase and refinancing applications. Other economic releases today include July retail sales (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior 1.0%) and retail sales excluding auto’s (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%; prior 1.0%) at 8:30 a.m. ET, June Business Inventories (Briefing.com consensus 1.5%; prior 1.4%) at 10:00 a.m. ET, weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories (prior +5.45 million), and July 26-27 FOMC Minutes release at 2:00 p.m. ET. WTI crude oil futures… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 25 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 60 points and are 0.6% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 194 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. Futures for the major indices are on the weaker side in response to some weaker-than-expected data out of China that has stirred global growth concerns. Also, market participants are not convinced the rally off the June lows is going to last. The House passed the Inflation Reduction Act, with President Biden expected to sign it later this week. China’s weaker-than-expected economic data included July retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investment. These reports presumably prompted the People’s Bank of China to cut its one-year medium-term lending facility loan rate and seven-day repurchase rate by ten basis points apiece to a respective 2.75% and 2.0%. Meanwhile, Japan’s Q2 flash GDP showed an increase of 0.5% quarter-over-quarter. WTI crude oil futures are making big downside moves this morning on the growth concerns, down 5.1% to $87.37/bbl. Natural gas futures are down 1.6% to $8.64/mmbtu. Unleaded gasoline futures are down 3.9% to $2.92/gal. The… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 16 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 57 points and are 0.3% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 112 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. Futures for the major indices have a positive bias this morning, with the S&P 500 on track for a fourth consecutive winning week. The House will vote on the Inflation Reduction Act today where it’s expected to pass. Also, the CDC issued new guidelines that remove the quarantine recommendation for people exposed to Covid-19. There is weakness in a number of Chinese ADRs following the news that several companies, China Life Insurance (LFC), PetroChina (PTR), China Petroleum (Sinopec) (SNP), Alum. Corp China (ACH), and Shanghai Petrochemical (SHI), plan to delist at the NYSE. Energy complex futures are moving lower this morning. WTI crude oil futures are down 1.5% to $92.93/bbl. Natural gas futures are down 3.2% to $8.59/mmbtu. The 2-yr note yield is unchanged at 3.19%, while the 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 2.87%. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy ) Markets: The S&P 500 tried… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 16 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 47 points and are 0.2% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 142 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. Futures for the major indices are indicating a higher open driven by carryover momentum from yesterday’s CPI-fueled rally. The S&P 500 closing above the 4,200 level is also helping sentiment this morning, in addition to Disney’s (DIS) favorable quarterly results. San Francisco Fed President Daly (not an FOMC voter) said she’s in favor of slower rate hikes (i.e., 50 basis points) but believes it’s too early to declare victory on inflation, according to FT. Also, the Biden administration is thinking about postponing plans to remove tariffs on some Chinese imports following the recent events involving Taiwan, according to Reuters. National average gasoline prices fell below $4.00/gal, according to Reuters. On a related note, the IEA raised its oil demand forecast for 2022, which is helping to contribute to higher oil prices this morning. WTI crude oil futures are up 1.1% to $92.93/bbl. The 2-yr note yield is down four basis points to… Read More
Headline News: Prices that consumers pay for a variety of goods and services rose 8.5% in July from a year ago, a slowing pace from the previous month due largely to a drop in gasoline prices. On a monthly basis, prices were flat as energy prices broadly declined 4.6% and gasoline fell 7.7%. That offset a 1.1% monthly gain in food prices and a 0.5% increase in shelter costs. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were expecting headline CPI to increase 8.7% on an annual basis and 0.2% monthly. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core CPI rose 5.9% annually and 0.3% monthly, compared to respective estimates of 6.1% and 0.5%. (Jeff Cox CNBC) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 4122.47 on below-average volume of 2,031,369,984. The big news for the index this morning is the CPI for July, year over year, came in lower than expected at 8.5%. The core CPI came in at 5.95%, with both numbers showing inflation slowed down in July. So far this morning, the index is higher by 1.62% in pre-market trading and indicates an open at 4,190.50. An open at that level would be a breakout past resistance at 4177.51 and… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 14 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 85 points and are 0.8% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 45 points and are trading slightly above fair value. There’s some hesitation in the market ahead of Wednesday’s CPI report. Also, there is a feeling that the market is still due for a pullback after the recent gains. President Biden is expected to sign the CHIPS Act today at 10:00 a.m. ET while the Inflation Reduction Act is headed to the House, where a vote is expected on Friday. Energy futures are climbing this morning. WTI crude oil futures are up 1.3% to $91.94/bbl. Natural gas futures are up 1.5% to $7.71/mmbtu. Unleaded gasoline futures are up 1.7% to $2.93/gal. Treasury yields are also on the rise ahead of the open. The 2-yr note yield is up four basis points to 3.24%, while the 10-yr note yield is up four basis points to 2.80%. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 traded briefly at 4186.62, which was above resistance at 4177.51, but the index… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 23 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 94 points and are 0.5% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 149 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. The Senate passed the Inflation Reduction Act overnight. It’s headed to the House now, which is expected to vote in favor on Friday. In overseas news, China has announced additional military drills around Taiwan. Also, Chinese imports came in weaker than expected in July, while exports were stronger than expected. Separately, Fed Governor Bowman said that a 75 basis point rate hike in September is still on the table until inflation declines in a meaningful way. Additionally, San Francisco Fed President Daly (not an FOMC voter) reiterated that the number one priority is to bring down inflation. Energy complex futures are mostly lower. WTI crude oil futures are down 1.0% to $88.10/bbl. Natural gas futures are down 3.6% to $7.77/mmbtu. Unleaded gasoline futures are up 0.2% to $2.86/gal. Treasury yields are also falling. The 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 3.21%, while the 10-yr note yield is down four… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 2 points and are trading slightly above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 9 points and are trading slightly below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 8 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Futures for the major indices are a little bit higher off the heels of yesterday’s big moves. The continued positive bias is helped out by the resilience to selling. There’s been a huge swath of earnings news since yesterday’s close in play for market participants today. There’s also been some central bank news. In its largest rate hike since 1995, the Bank of England raised its key rate 50 basis points to 1.75%, as expected. Brazil’s central bank raised its key rate 50 basis points to 13.75%, as expected. Also, a senior Japanese Ministry of Finance official said that preparations should be made for a return to normal trading in Japanese bonds. Treasury yields are falling this morning. The 2-yr note yield is down four basis points to 3.07%, while the 10-yr note yield is down four basis points to 2.71%. Energy complex futures are mostly higher. WTI crude oil futures… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 21 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 64 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 144 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. Futures for the major indices are trading higher with a measure of relief that China’s response to Speaker Pelosi’s Taiwan visit was not more consequential. Attention has also shifted to earnings news which is generally better-than-feared. In other news, St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC voter) said after yesterday’s close that he thinks a soft landing is possible, but the Fed will need to keep raising interest rates. He thinks the target range should be 3.75%-4.00% by the end of the year. Also, OPEC+ is meeting today, and there has been speculation that it will increase its production quota. Oil prices are moving higher this morning. WTI crude oil futures are up 0.6% to $95.00/bbl. Unleaded gasoline futures are up 1.6% to $3.11/gal. Natural gas futures are up 1.0% to $7.78. Treasury yields are rising. The 2-yr note yield is up two basis points to 3.09%, while the 10-yr note yield… Read More
