The S&P 500 futures are down 25 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 60 points and are 0.6% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 194 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value.
Futures for the major indices are on the weaker side in response to some weaker-than-expected data out of China that has stirred global growth concerns. Also, market participants are not convinced the rally off the June lows is going to last.
The House passed the Inflation Reduction Act, with President Biden expected to sign it later this week.
China’s weaker-than-expected economic data included July retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investment. These reports presumably prompted the People’s Bank of China to cut its one-year medium-term lending facility loan rate and seven-day repurchase rate by ten basis points apiece to a respective 2.75% and 2.0%.
Meanwhile, Japan’s Q2 flash GDP showed an increase of 0.5% quarter-over-quarter.
WTI crude oil futures are making big downside moves this morning on the growth concerns, down 5.1% to $87.37/bbl. Natural gas futures are down 1.6% to $8.64/mmbtu. Unleaded gasoline futures are down 3.9% to $2.92/gal.
The 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 3.22%, while the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 2.82%.
(Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy )
The S&P 500 finished the week with another strong rally closing at 4280.15 and just below resistance at 4307.66. The trading came with up volume at 87% of the 1,822,328,704 shares traded. However, the internals are still overbought along with the RSI index moving into the overbought zone.
So, we feel the uptrend can potentially continue, but the overbought condition must be worked off before there is another rally. We think the S&P 500 could pull back and potentially test support at 4177.51 over the next few days.
We are currently Intermediate-term bearish and short-term bullish.
John N. Lilly III CPFA
Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠
Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠
Portfolio Manager, RJFS
Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist
Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and futures trading could present additional risk based on underlying commodities investments.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and changes of price movements.
The advance/decline line (A/D) is a technical indicator that plots the difference between the number of advancing and declining stocks on a daily basis. The indicator is cumulative, with a positive number being added to the prior number, or if the number is negative, it is subtracted from the prior number.
The A/D line is used to show market sentiment, as it tells traders whether there are more stocks rising or falling. It is used to confirm price trends in major indexes and can also warn of reversals when divergence occurs.
The percentage of stocks trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The 50-day moving average is used for short-to-medium-term timeframes, while the 150-day and 200-day moving averages are used for medium-to-long-term timeframes. Signals can be derived from overbought/oversold levels, crosses above/below 50%, and bullish/bearish divergences.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stocks of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represent approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index.
The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S stock market. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investors’ results will vary. Opinions expressed are those of the author John N. Lilly III, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. “There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecast provided herein will prove to be correct. “The information contained was received from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Investing always involves risk, and you may incur a profit or loss. No investment strategy can guarantee success. The charts and/or tables presented herein are for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered as the sole basis for your investment decision. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, different financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any company’s stock mentioned above.
US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Bond prices and yields are subject to change based on market conditions and availability. If bonds are sold prior to maturity, you may receive more or less than your initial investment. Holding bonds to term allows redemption at par value. There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and bond prices. Generally, when interest rates rise, bond prices fall, and when interest rates fall, bond prices generally rise.
The Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) is a stock market index made up of 103 equity securities issued by 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the NASDAQ. It is a modified capitalization-weighted index. It is based on exchange, and it is not an index of U.S.-based companies.