Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 11 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 33 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 78 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The market has finished lower in eight of the last nine sessions, so equity futures are modestly higher now with an expectation that the market is due for a bounce. Hong Kong could relax masking and COVID testing rules, according to Bloomberg. Treasury yields are inching higher. The 2-yr note yield is up three basis points to 4.27%, and the 10-yr note yield is up four basis points to 3.46%. The U.S. Dollar Index is flat at 105.13. Energy complex futures are moving up this morning. WTI crude oil futures are up 2.5% to $73.85/bbl, and natural gas futures are up 1.7% to $5.82/mmbtu. The initial and continuing jobless claims report is due at 8:30 a.m. ET today, although market participants understandably remain preoccupied with the November Producer Price Index tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. ET. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) | Markets: The S&P 500 moved lower for… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 27 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 128 points and are trading 1.0% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 153 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. Equity futures are sporting losses after yesterday’s retreat. Global growth concerns are still at the forefront after China reported bigger-than-expected decreases in imports and exports for November. Mega caps are trading down in premarket action, with acute weakness in Tesla (TSLA) following reports the company is offering more subsidies to Chinese buyers. China removed most coronavirus testing and quarantine requirements and reduced authority for local officials to shut down city blocks, according to The Wall Street Journal. Democrat Raphael Warnock won the run-off Senate election in Georgia, giving Democrats a 51-49 advantage in the Senate. The weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index fell 1.9% versus a 0.8% decline last week. Other economic data out today includes: 8:30 a.m. ET: Revised Q3 Productivity (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.3%) and Unit Labor Costs (Briefing.com consensus 3.5%; prior 3.5%) 10:30 a.m. ET: Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories (prior -12.58 million barrels) 3:00 p.m. ET: October… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 21 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 54 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 153 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. Equity futures are weaker this morning, with expectations for some consolidation after a big run in a short amount of time playing a role. The S&P 500 is still holding above its 200-day moving average (4,045), which is a key support level. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 4.5% following reports of Chinese cities easing up on some COVID restrictions. OPEC+ said it would maintain its current production target and EU officials agreed to a $60.00/bbl price cap on Russian oil. Also, EU sanctions on Russian seaborne oil go into effect today. Treasury yields are modestly higher, and the U.S. Dollar Index is modestly lower. The 2-yr note yield is up one basis point to 4.31%, and the 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 3.52%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.2% to 104.33. Market participants will receive the November ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Briefing.com consensus 53.5%; prior 54.4%) at… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 2 points and are trading roughly in line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 1 point and are trading slightly below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 21 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. Market participants are taking a pause this morning, waiting to see if there’s a follow-through from yesterday’s rally. Equity futures are mixed and little changed in front of key economic releases today, including the weekly initial jobless claims and continuing claims, the November ISM Manufacturing Index, and the Personal Spending and Income Report, which contains the PCE Price Index. China will ease some of its coronavirus protocols, including allowing isolation at home and reduction in mass testing, according to Reuters. Treasury yields are still declining. The 2-yr note yield is down seven basis points to 4.31%, and the 10-yr note yield is down 11 basis points to 3.59%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.6% to 105.40. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) | Markets: The S&P 500 surged 2.17% higher with massive volume of 3,685,580,800, and 90% of that was up volume. The index also moved… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 5 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 34 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 13 points and are trading slightly above fair value. Although the futures are currently trading higher, there’s a mostly wait-and-see disposition in front of Fed Chair Powell’s speech today at 1:30 p.m. ET at the Brookings Institution entitled Economic Outlook, Inflation, and the Labor Market. Market participants are also taking into account some overseas economic data, including a cooler-than-expected CPI reading out of the eurozone for November and weaker-than-expected Manufacturing PMI and Non-Manufacturing PMI readings out of China that fell further into contraction territory (i.e. sub-50 readings). The MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 0.8% compared to last week, with purchase applications rising 4% while refinancing applications fell 13%. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) | Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 3957.63 and is now in the middle of the 3907-07-4037.12 trading range. RSI was flat and remained above the critical 50 level, while volume came in at 1,893,185,664. So, traders are cautiously awaiting the economic reports… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 8 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 44 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 1 point and are trading slightly above fair value. Equity futures are mixed, but things are generally more positive as speculation grows that China may temper its zero-COVID measures. The country reported its first decline in COVID infections in more than a week, and Chinese officials announced they’re aiming to increase vaccination rates among older people, according to Bloomberg. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 5.2% on the news. WTI crude oil futures have continued to rebound ($78.92/bbl, +1.67, +2.1%) on these latest developments. Treasury yields are moving lower. The 10-yr note yield is down four basis points to 3.66%, and the 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.43%, with some cooler-than-expected inflation readings out of Europe contributing to the buying interest. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) | Markets: The S&P 50 sold off sharply, closing lower by 1.45% at 3963.94. The volume picked up after trending lower all last week with 2,076,473,088 shares traded;… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 29 points and are trading 0.9% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 86 points and are trading 1.1% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 188 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value. There’s a negative tone in the equity futures market that is being fed reportedly by concerns over protests in China due to the zero-COVID policy. Also, it appears as if a consolidation mindset is kicking in after some strong gains of late and as the S&P 500 approaches its 200-day moving average (4054). OPEC+ will decide on production amounts ahead of the planned December 5 EU ban on most Russian crude imports, according to The Wall Street Journal. On a related note, energy complex futures are trading down this morning on growth concerns connected to China. WTI crude oil futures are down 3.0% to $74.03/bbl, and natural gas futures are down 3.7% to $7.05/mmbtu. There is no U.S. economic data of note today, but market participants have a big slate of data coming up this week that includes: November Consumer Confidence at 10:00 a.m. ET Tuesday, Q3 GDP Second Estimate at… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 20 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 89 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 61 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The equity futures market indicates a lower open as investors weigh ongoing growth concerns. Treasury yields are inching higher this morning. The 10-yr note yield rose two basis points to 3.83%, and the 2-yr note yield is up four basis points to 4.54%. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (not an FOMC voter) favors smaller rate hikes, with a potential terminal rate of 4.75-5.00%, according to Bloomberg. Germany’s PPI decreased 4.2% month-over-month in October, representing the first month-over-month drop since May 2020. Germany’s PPI is still up 34.5% on a year-over-year basis. China reported its first COVID-19 deaths in 6 months, according to the Guardian. The largest Beijing district wants people to stay home due to rising coronavirus cases, according to Reuters. Goldman Sachs cut its price target for crude oil in Q4 by $10 to $100/bbl. On a related note, WTI crude oil futures are down 0.8% to $79.44/bbl, and natural… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 20 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 72 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 164 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. Buying interest has carried over from the stock market’s best day since 2020. The October CPI report catalyzed yesterday’s massive rally. The good vibes from that report continue to be felt, but the snapback momentum has understandably subsided some. Nonetheless, the major indices are on track for a higher open, drawing added support from the news that China has relaxed its Covid restrictions for inbound travelers and is aiming now to avoid city-wide mass testing when the transmission chain is clear, according to Bloomberg. The Treasury market is closed today in observance of Veterans Day. The 10-yr note yield will enter next week, sitting at 3.82%. The U.S. Dollar Index continues to weaken. It is down another 1.1% at 107.06 this morning, leaving it down 3.5% for the week. WTI crude futures are up 3.3% to $89.31/bbl, and copper futures are up 2.5% to $3.85/lb, bolstered by the weaker dollar and… Read More
Headline News: The consumer price index rose less than expected in October, an indication that while inflation is still a threat to the U.S. economy, pressures could be starting to cool. The consumer price index, a broad-based measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.4% for the month and 7.7% from a year ago. Respective estimates from Dow Jones were for increases of 0.6% and 7.9%. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called core CPI increased 0.3% for the month and 6.3% on an annual basis, compared to respective estimates of 0.5% and 6.5%. A 2.4% decline in used vehicle prices helped bring down the inflation figures. Apparel prices fell 0.7% and medical care services were lower by 0.6%. Markets reacted sharply to the report, with futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average up more than 800 points. Treasury yields fell sharply, with the policy-sensitive two-year note tumbling 0.22 percentage points to 4.41%. (Jeff Cox CNBC ) Markets: The S&P 500 moved below the 50-day moving average and support at 3806.91 to close lower at 3748.57. However, the monthly inflation report came in better than expected, and the S&P 500 futures are higher by 3% this morning. The suggested… Read More
