Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 10 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 69 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 84 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. Earnings results since yesterday’s close have garnered mixed reactions, setting the major indices up for a mixed open. The 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 5.09%, and the 10-yr note yield is up two basis points to 4.86%. Republicans nominate Mike Johnson (R-LA) for Speaker. Republicans are planning full floor vote today at 12:00 ET. He appears close to getting enough votes to get elected, according to The New York Times. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 1.0% following last week’s 6.9% decline. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied again, closing higher at 4247.68 and above the critical 200-day moving average at 4236.94. The RSI index also moved higher and has now made a higher low, while the S&P 500 made a lower low. This is a significant development that could see more buyers come in at this level. However, the… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 20 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 74 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 132 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. Stock futures are up nicely this morning following five straight losing sessions for the S&P 500, which have left it below its 200-day moving average (4,236). That price action has fostered expectations for a rebound effort. The 10-yr note yield is up two basis points to 4.86%, and the 2-yr note yield is up two basis points to 5.08%. There will be a $51 billion 2-yr note auction today. Results will be released at 1:00 p.m. ET. Flash October Manufacturing and Services PMI readings from France, Germany, and the U.K. remained in contractionary territory, reflecting a continuation of weak activity in the region. U.S. economic data today is limited to the preliminary October S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI at 9:45 a.m. ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a wide range but only managed to close marginally higher at 4217.04. The… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 21 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 75 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 183 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. Stock futures indicate a lower open after the S&P 500 closed below its 200-day moving average on Friday. Action in the Treasury market is keeping the stock market in check after the 10-year yield passed 5.00% again. It is currently up seven basis points from Friday’s settlement at 4.99%. The 2-year note yield is up three basis points to 5.11%. Relatively weak mega caps in pre-open trading are having a disproportionate influence on the broader market. On a related note, earnings reporting season picks up this week, highlighted by some mega-cap tech companies. Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are another limiting factor this morning. Israel is stepping up its airstrikes against Hamas; meanwhile, Israel’s military is contending with increasing attacks from Hezbollah, which is based in Lebanon, according to The New York Times, indicating an increased potential for a wider regional conflict. The House of Representatives is still without… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 9 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 39 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 69 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. Equity futures indicate a lower open after the 10-year note yield crossed 5.0% for the first time since 2007 overnight. It has since declined to 4.93%. The 2-yr note yield is down three basis points to 5.14%. Geopolitical uncertainty remains top of mind for investors. In a speech last night, President Biden, citing national security interests, made the case for more aid for Israel and Ukraine. Reports suggest he will ask Congress for approximately $100 billion in emergency aid. The business of Congress, however, remains stymied by the House’s inability to elect a new Speaker. The geopolitical uncertainty, particularly the Israel-Hamas conflict, has contributed to risk aversion ahead of the weekend. The People’s Bank of China left its one- and five-year loan prime rates at their respective 3.45% and 4.20%, as expected. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off sharply, closing at 4278, and had… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 18 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 90 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 69 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. Stocks futures indicate a lower open as participants digest another batch of earnings news that featured better than expected results from a Dow and a Q4 profit warning from a major airline. Geopolitical angst, however, appears to be at the heart of today’s weakness after the summit between President Biden and Arab leaders was called off following the Gaza hospital bombing yesterday. WTI crude oil futures are up 2.3% to $88.69/bbl while Brent crude futures are up 2.2% to $91.86/bbl. The 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 5.18% and the 10-yr note yield is down four basis points to 4.81%. China’s Q3 GDP grew by 4.9% versus an expected 4.4%. Industrial production and retail sales were both better than expected in September. The U.S. economic calendar features September housing starts and building permits at 8:30 a.m. ET. Separately, the House will hold another vote for Speaker today at… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 14 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 21 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 158 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. Equity futures are positive, reflecting some relief that the weekend did not produce a widening of the Israel-Hamas conflict. A potential escalation is still top of mind for participants, though, as Israel prepares to invade Gaza in a few days with tens of thousands of soldiers, according to The New York Times. Iran’s foreign minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian warned Israel that Hezbollah might join the conflict and that it could suffer a “large earthquake” if it doesn’t stop its attacks on Gaza, according to ABC News. WTI crude oil futures are down 0.2% to $87.54/bbl, and Brent Crude futures are down 0.3% to $90.60/bbl. The 2-yr note yield is up one basis point to 5.06%, and the 10-yr note yield is up six basis points to 4.69%. Separately, the People’s Bank of China injected liquidity through the medium-term lending facility in a bid to support economic growth but left the medium-term lending… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 17 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 57 points and are trading 0.3% fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 126 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. Equity futures indicate a higher open as participants wait on the September Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET. Treasury yields are lower currently, but investors will be focused on how rates react to the data. The 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.99% and the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.56%. Israel said that the siege of Gaza will not end until all the hostages have been released, according to Reuters. Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) prevailed in the GOP conference vote, but House Republicans have doubts on whether Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) has enough votes to get elected Speaker, according to Politico. He needs 217 votes to win the Speaker position. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied for a fourth day, closing at 4376.95, and is now well beyond the 20-day moving average at 4339.88. The September consumer… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are flat and are trading in line with fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 2 points and are trading roughly in line with fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 29 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The stock market is poised for a higher open following yesterday’s afternoon rally. A drop in market rates has contributed to the positive bias despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty around the situation in Israel and Gaza. The 2-yr note yield is down six basis points to 5.00%, and the 10-yr note yield is down eight basis points to 4.70%. WTI crude oil futures are down 0.6% to $85.95/bbl after climbing 4.0% yesterday. In other news, the IMF lowered its 2024 global growth outlook to 2.9% from 3.0%. China’s troubled property developer Country Garden missed another bond payment and warned of liquidity pressures, stoking concerns that it may end up announcing a restructuring of its offshore debt, according to Reuters. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied sharply past resistance at 4355.31 and closed higher at 4335.66, while the RSI also closed much higher at 47.26 in… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 28 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 125 points and are trading 0.8% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 175 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. Stock futures indicate a lower open as participants react to the Israel-Hamas war. The bond market is closed today, but the U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.4% to 106.52, reflecting some flight to safety trading. Concerns about a wider regional conflict are driving a big move in oil prices. WTI crude oil futures are up 4.0% to $86.08/bbl. Market participants are also looking ahead to the September CPI report (Thursday) and the start of the Q3 earnings season later this week. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied sharply off support at 4231.10 to close higher at 4308.50, and the RSI also closed higher in support of the rally at 43.22. The total volume was only 2,474,125,824, and the up volume was only 73% of the total. So, the buying was not as intense as we would have liked to have seen. Markets could be choppy… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 3 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 15 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 39 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Yesterday’s afternoon bounce has carried over this morning. Stock futures have a positive disposition, keying off the notion that the market is still oversold in the short term and due for a bounce. Things could shift, though, after the release of the September employment report at 8:30 a.m. ET. Market participants will be closely watching the reaction of the Treasury market to this morning’s data. The 2-yr note yield is up two basis points currently to 5.03%, and the 10-yr note yield is up three basis points to 4.74%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.1% to 106.28. Separately, WTI crude oil futures are flattish this morning, up 0.1% to $82.35/bbl. Copper futures are up 1.4% to $3.60/lb. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded within the current trading range of 4231-10-4261.07, and both levels were tested yesterday. The RSI index remained flat, while the internal… Read More
