Headline News: Wall Street is set to open lower open on continued fears of a slowing U.S. economy and concerns about the Federal Reserve tapering the current bond-buying program. Also, China reported retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investment data for August that were all lower for August. Domestically the New York Fed’s Empire Index, a measure of manufacturing in the region, came in at 34.2 for September, well ahead of the expected 18 expectations. Later today, the U.S. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization will be reported and should provide more information on the economy’s health. Markets: The S&P 500 closed at 4443.05, just above potential support at 4437.66. The trading came on above-average volume, with 2,013,329,792 shares traded, and RSI continued to dive lower, closing at 44.68. After six straight lower closings, there is a high potential for buyers to come in and look to “buy the dip.” A test of the 50-day moving average could potentially happen today, and we feel that level will hold for now. A rally today could possibly be halted at the 4468.99 level and then another test of the 50-day moving average later this week. If the 50 day should be taken… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set for a higher open after the U.S. consumer prices increased at their slowest pace in six months in August. The Labor Department said its Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy, was higher 0.1% in August. The data suggests that inflation has potentially peaked but could remain high due to supply constraints. Investors will now be focused on the Federal Reserve meeting on September 21 to see if the Fed will begin a tapering policy. Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower for the fifth day in a row after testing support at 4437.66 and then closing at4468.73. The index started the day higher but slowly moved lower throughout the day on above-average volume of 2,053,774,464. Today, the release of a better than expected CPI report could bring in the buyers, but over the last five days, any rally has been met with heavy selling. So, any rally needs to hold all day and close higher on above-average volume. We still believe a test of the 50-day moving average at 4427.23 will possibly happen soon. We are also moving to a short-term bearish stance. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set to open higher to start the week after data about Covid-19 cases appears to be trending lower. The 7- day average through Friday was 136,000 cases down, from 157,000 at the end of August. Economic reopening stocks such as Delta (DAL) and Carnival Corp (CCL) were 1% higher in pre-market trading. Meanwhile, Tuesday’s consumer price index report will be closely watched for any signs of an increase in U.S. inflation. A bigger than expected increase could see the Fed slow down the pace of the bond-buying policy at the September meeting. Markets: The S&P 500 moved closed at 4458.58 on Friday, which was below support at 4468.99. The day’s trading volume increased with 1,856,234,880 shares traded, and the RSI index moved below the 50 line closing at 47.54. Potential support could now potentially come in at 4437.66 and then the 50-day moving average at 4424.26. So far this morning, the S&P 500 futures are much higher, so potential resistance could come in 4501.71. A rally after four down days is typical, but the rally needs to hold and finish the day strong. We feel the recent selling is potentially not over, and the 50-day… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures are higher after a phone call between President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping has potentially eased tension between the two nations. Meanwhile, the producer price index rose 0.7% for August, indicating that inflation could remain high. Year over year, the index has risen 8.3%, the most significant increase since 2010. Also, the supply chains remain backed up due to the continuation of the COVID-19 pandemic. Markets: The S&P 500 closed at 4493.28, which was below the support level of 4493.95. There was a pick-up in volume with 1,832,259,968 shares traded, and RSI has begun to move lower, closing at 55.09. The next potential support level is now at 4468.89, and we believe the index will potentially test that soon. Today, the index could try and test possible resistance at 4513.33, but the trading could remain in a narrow range to close out the week. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal,… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set for another lower open on fears of slowing economic growth and a potential Federal Reserve tapering monetary policy. However, first-time filings for unemployment claims in the U.S. came in lower at 310,000. That was the lowest total since March 14th, 2020. Continuing claims also came in lower at 2.78 million, a drop of 22,000 from the previous week and also the weakest since March 14th, 2020. Markets: The S&P 500 moved below support at 4513.33 and then rallied to close 4514.07 on Wednesday. The rally came with an increase in volume, with 1,780,187,008 shares traded. We feel the rally shows there is still a “buy the dip” mentality in the markets, which could keep the index propped up. However, the current base is now in jeopardy if the 4513.33 level is broken today. If so, potential support could then become 4493.95 and then 4468.99. We feel the two possible support levels could be tested soon as we are still in a traditionally choppy time of the year for markets. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner,… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures are lower as the spread of the Delta virus continues to raise concerns about a slowing domestic economy. Investors are also concerned the Federal Reserve may start to unwind the monetary stimulus that has helped the economy recover. The seasonally choppy trading for September and October may already be in play, and with the S&P 500 being up over 20% for the year without one 5% pullback so far this year. Markets: The S&P 500 tested and held support at 4513.33, with 1,804,739.840 shares traded on Tuesday. The index also tested resistance at 4537.36, showing a battle by traders on the future direction of markets. If the current support should give way, the next level could potentially come in at 4468.99. We feel there will be more sideways trading at these levels as the current base continues to grow. Today, we are looking for another test of the 4513.33 level early, and it will be important for buyers to step in at that level again. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners &… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set for a lower open due to the potential for a slowing U.S. economy and a rise in COVID-19 cases. The weak jobs report on Friday gives the Federal Reserve room to delay the start of tapering bond purchases, but the increase in infection could slow the re-opening of the economy. Markets: The S&P 500 remains in a trading range of 4513.33-4537.36 and continues to build a base. The resistance at the top of the range has been tested twice, so the index looks set to, potentially, close at a new high soon. The RSI index remains below the overbought level, so there is still room to move higher, and the advance/decline line is also supportive of a break-out. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist The Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and changes of price movements. The advance/decline line (A/D) is a technical indicator that plots the difference between the number of advancing and declining stocks on a… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set for a higher open as investors speculate the Federal Reserve would maintain an accommodative policy. Recent economic data has indicated the U.S. economic recovery was slowing due to the rise in COVID-19 cases. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing for unemployment fell last week while layoffs dropped to the lowest level in more than 24 years in August. Initial claims for unemployment fell by 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted 34,000 for the week ended August 28. Markets: The S&P 500 trade sideways again and remains inside the current trading range of 4513.33-4537.36. A base has now clearly formed, setting the index up for a potential new all-time high. We feel the index will continue basing today as investors await the jobs report released tomorrow morning. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and futures trading could present additional risk based on underlying commodities investments. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by… Read More
Recently I spoke with a fine lady ill with the bug-of-our time. The conversation, texting, concluded with a comment about living in strange times. If only stock prices weren’t so high…. If only we could go back to normal…. If only I had…. If only…. Often, things are not as we wish them to be. We do not get to direct the economy, disease, politics, our families, or much of anything else, except maybe, our thoughts and our actions. We get to make investment decisions within the world we are given, the circumstances that are, the present. We are not forecasters. We do not pretend to have a construct of the future and then invest accordingly. We cannot see the future. For us, the uncertainty of the future is the only certainty we know. So, for us, it’s a more-like-it-than-not world. What does that look like? The economy is expanding – The Institute for Supply Management cataloged the 14th month of Manufacturing and Service sector growth. According to The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), GDP for the 2nd quarter grew at 6.6% Inflation has steadied at 3.6% according to BEA and appears to be receding. Corporate Earnings, according to S&P… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures are higher to start the month despite a weaker than expected private jobs report out this morning. ADP reported that private payrolls rose 374,000, well below the projection of 600,000. A surge in COVID-19 cases and cutbacks in hiring were cited for the drop in new jobs created. There was an increase in hirings in the leisure and hospitality sectors, hopefully showing the economy is still on track to reopen. Markets: The S&P 500 traded sideways, closing at 4522.68 on Tuesday. We hope that a base will now form over the next few days so the index can potentially resume the uptrend. There is now a trading range of 4513.33-4537.36 established, which should also act as potential support and resistance. However, the S&P 500 is higher in pre-market trading and poised to open at a new high. If that should hold in the first thirty minutes of trading, the index could potentially rally the rest of the day. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative,… Read More
