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Planning & Economy


September 1st, 2021

Recently I spoke with a fine lady ill with the bug-of-our time. The conversation, texting, concluded with a comment about living in strange times.

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If only stock prices weren’t so high….
If only we could go back to normal….
If only I had….
If only….

Often, things are not as we wish them to be. We do not get to direct the economy, disease, politics, our families, or much of anything else, except maybe, our thoughts and our actions. We get to make investment decisions within the world we are given, the circumstances that are, the present.

We are not forecasters. We do not pretend to have a construct of the future and then invest accordingly. We cannot see the future. For us, the uncertainty of the future is the only certainty we know. So, for us, it’s a more-like-it-than-not world. What does that look like?

  1. The economy is expanding – The Institute for Supply Management cataloged the 14th month of Manufacturing and Service sector growth.
  2. According to The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), GDP for the 2nd quarter grew at 6.6%
  3. Inflation has steadied at 3.6% according to BEA and appears to be receding.
  4. Corporate Earnings, according to S&P Indices, should grow more than 10% year over year.
  5. According to CDC, of those vaccinated for the COVID-19, about 0.001% have died after contracting the virus.

Investment outcomes are about probabilities, as in what are the odds. It appears that in a more-than-like-it-than-not-world, investing in equities is the most likely place for a favorable outcome, today.

“If you can keep your head when all about you   
    Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,   
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
    But make allowance for their doubting too;…”
An excerpt from If by Rudyard Kipling

If you, like me, believe in the efforts of the thousands of people you and I employ as owners of the world’s best companies.

Carlos Dominguez – CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™, Portfolio Manager, RJFS

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