Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 28 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 81 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 202 points and are trading 1.0% above fair value. A sentiment-driven rebound effort has taken root in the equity futures market, with the bank stocks showing big gains this morning and panic buying in the Treasury market abating. The 2-yr note yield is up 20 basis points to 4.23%, and the 10-yr note yield is up 11 basis points to 3.62%. The closely watched Consumer Price Index is coming out at 8:30 a.m. ET, which will help inform Fed’s next interest rate move. On a related note, the CME FedWatch Tool now reflects a 67.2% probability of a 25 basis points rate hike and a 32.8% probability of no rate hike at the March FOMC meeting. Other data released today was limited to the February NFIB Small Business Optimism (actual 90.9; prior 90.3). WTI crude oil futures are down 1.7% to $73.56/bbl, and natural gas futures are down 0.7% to $2.71/mmbtu. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) … Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 1 point and are trading roughly in line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 71 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 89 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The equity futures market is mixed this morning after the Fed, Treasury, and FDIC issued a joint statement to make depositors whole at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank of New York. Separately, the Fed announced a bank term funding program designed to assure banks have the ability to meet the needs of all depositors. These developments sparked an initial relief rally, but the conviction has been mixed, and uncertainty elevated as many bank stocks continue to suffer further losses. Treasury yields are down sharply in a flight to safety trade. The 2-yr note yield is down 41 basis points to 4.18%, and the 10-yr note yield is down 17 basis points to 3.53%. Also, there has been a stark downshift in rate expectations for the March FOMC meeting. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 52.4% probability of a 25 basis points rate hike and a 47.6% probability of… Read More
Headline News: Job creation decelerated in February but was still stronger than expected despite Federal Reserve efforts to slow the economy and bring down inflation. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 311,000 for the month, the Labor Department reported Friday. That was above the 225,000 Dow Jones estimate and a sign that the employment market is still hot. The unemployment rate rose to 3.6%, above the expectation for 3.4%. There was some good news on the inflation side, as average hourly earnings rose 4.6% from a year ago, below the estimate for 4.8%. The monthly increase of 0.2% also was below the 0.4% estimate. Though the jobs number was stronger than expectations, February’s growth represented a deceleration from an unusually strong January. The year opened with a nonfarm payrolls gain of 504,000, a total that was revised down only slightly from the initially reported 517,000. December’s total also was taken down slightly, to 239,000, a decrease of 21,000 from the previous estimate. (Jeff Cox CNBC) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off heavily, moving below the 200-day moving average at 394094 to close lower at 3918.32. The trading came with volume of 2,587,714,304 and downside volume of 93%, showing the selling was… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 12 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 66 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 34 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Equity futures are slightly negative as investors weigh concerns about rising rates creating added competition for stocks. Market participants are also anxiously awaiting the February Employment Situation Report tomorrow and may be looking to reduce risk ahead of the release. Treasury yields are not moving a lot this morning, but investors are cognizant of the big moves short-term rates have made recently. The 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 5.04% and the 10-yr note yield is up two basis points to 4.00%. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 traded lower most of the day but rallied to end the day higher at 3992.01. The index remains below the 50-day moving average at 3997.57, and potential support remains at the 200-day moving average at 3940.40. We feel caution is warranted until the release of the unemployment report on Friday morning and the… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 5 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 26 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 9 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Equity futures are mixed, and little changed ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s semiannual monetary policy testimony before the Senate Banking Committee at 10:00 a.m. ET. A move lower in Treasury yields has been mildly supportive of the equity futures market this morning. The 2-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.87%, and the 10-yr note yield is down four basis points to 3.94%. The Reserve Bank of Australia increased its cash rate by 25 bps to 3.60%, as expected. China reported a larger-than-expected trade surplus for February even though both imports (-10.2% yr/yr) and exports (-6.8% yr/yr) decreased for the first time since May 2020. Energy complex futures are mixed. WTI crude oil futures are down 0.6% to $80.01/bbl, and natural gas futures are up 2.1% to $2.79/mmbtu. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied sharply at the open of trading but… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 11 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 27 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 76 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. There’s a positive disposition in the equity futures market this morning, supported in large part by falling Treasury yields. There is also some technical buying interest boosting the broader market after the S&P 500 found support at its 200-day moving average (3,940) yesterday. Early strength in mega-cap space is also helping to boost the futures trade. The 2-yr note yield is down five basis points to 4.87%, and the 10-yr note yield is down six basis points to 4.02%. Market participants received some supportive economic data overnight, including China’s stronger-than-expected February Caixin Services PMI and cooler-than-expected January PPI for the Eurozone. Today’s U.S. economic data includes the February IHS Markit Services PMI – Final (prior 50.5) at 9:45 a.m. ET and the February ISM Services PMI (Briefing.com consensus 54.5%; prior 55.2%) at 10:00 a.m. ET. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 traded below the 200-day … Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up ten points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 43 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 66 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. Equity futures indicate a higher open to begin March after a night that saw the release of China’s strongest Manufacturing PMI reading since 2012. Other PMI readings were on the soft side, as Japan’s reading remained in contraction for the fourth month in a row, while the eurozone’s Manufacturing PMI was also below 50.0, indicating slowing activity. The 2-yr Treasury note yield is up three basis points at 4.83%, and the 10-yr note yield is up one basis point at 3.93%. WTI crude oil futures are down 0.7% to $76.48/bbl, and natural gas futures are up 0.6% to $2.76/mmbtu. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 moved below the 50-day moving average at 3979.23 and closed at 3970.15. The trading came with above average volume of 2,747,392,000 shares traded, and the RSI index closed lower in support of the selling at 42.16. The internal indicators… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 14 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 54 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. Equity futures indicate a higher open, thanks in part to gains in the mega-cap space, positive reactions to earnings news from the likes of Zoom Video (ZM) and Target (TGT), and technical buying interest after the S&P 500 managed to eke out a close yesterday above its 50-day moving average (3,979). The 2-yr Treasury note yield is unchanged at 4.80%, and the 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 3.93%. WTI crude oil futures are up 1.8% to $77.03/bbl, and natural gas futures are down 0.8% to $2.83/mmbtu. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 traded up to resistance at 4015.39, tested support at 3979.73, and closed lower at 3982.24. The index did close above the lower Bollinger Band, and RSI closed higher at 43.36. So, a new trading range might be forming, and hopefully, a small base will form at these levels. If… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 15 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 58 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The stock market is poised for a higher open with no clear catalysts for the positive bias. The S&P 500 maintaining a position above its 200-day moving average last week may be fostering some willingness to buy on weakness. Market participants will receive a slate of earnings news this week, with many of the notable names coming out of the retail and tech spaces. Treasury yields are moving up this morning. The 2-yr note yield is up five basis points to 4.83%, and the 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 3.96%. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 traded down to the 200-day moving average and quickly bounced higher to close at 3970.04. However, the RSI index did not move higher in support of the bounce, closing lower at 41.81. Today, the S&P 500 remains at the lower Bollinger Band, which should cause… Read More
Headline News: The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index — the Fed’s preferred assessment of how quickly prices are rising across the economy — rose 0.6% in January and 5.4% from last year. On a “core” basis, which strips out volatile food and energy components, prices rose 0.6% for the month and 4.7% from last year. The report from the Commerce Department also showed that consumer spending rose 1.8% last month from December after falling the previous month. The numbers support recent indications inflation is not falling at the pace, and extent investors have been hoping for, even as prices have stabilized from the peaks of the current inflation cycle. (Alexandra Semenova Yahoo Finance) Markets: The S&P 500 briefly traded below the 50-day moving average at 3980.89 but rallied sharply later to close at 4012.32. The RSI index also rallied in support but could not get above the 50 level closing at 45.86. The trading action was just as we had hoped, but the inflation report released this morning has the S&P 500 futures lower by 1.26%. If that holds, the index would open at 3967.50, well below the 50-day moving average, and make the 200-day moving average, 3940.23,… Read More
