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On a More Personal Note – April 2023

Bobbie is going to be a Grammie again! Austin, Bobbie’s eldest son, and his wife, Meghan are going to have a baby boy.  He is due in June and she is super excited to meet him!!  This will be her second grandchild and also her second grandson!

Morning Brief

Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 2 points and are trading in line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 63 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 30 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average outperform thanks to gains in JPMorgan (JPM) and UnitedHealth (UNH), which are helping to offset weakness in Boeing (BA). Meanwhile, losses in the mega space have weighed down the broader market despite some underlying strength from bank stocks following this morning’s earnings reports. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and PNC Financial all reported better-than-expected Q1 earnings. Citigroup will be releasing its results shortly. In other news, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy will introduce a plan next week to raise the debt ceiling for one year with spending cuts, according to Bloomberg. Treasury yields are little changed from yesterday’s settlement levels. The 2-yr note yield is unchanged at 3.99%, and the 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 3.46%. The U.S. Dollar Index is flat at 100.99. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy)   Markets: The S&P 500 rallied sharply, moving past… Read More

Morning Brief

Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 1 point and are trading in line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 8 points and are trading fractionally above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 18 points and are trading slightly below fair value. The equity futures market has a tentative disposition as participants await the March Producer Price Index and weekly jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. ET. In addition, there’s some hesitancy ahead of Q1 earnings reporting season, starting tomorrow with several large banks. There is a growing sense that the European Central Bank will announce a 25-bps rate increase at its May meeting, according to Reuters. China reported much better than expected trade data for March. The trade surplus narrowed to $88.19 billion (expected $39.2 billion) from $116.88 billion, with exports jumping 14.8% on a year-over-year basis (expected -7.0%) and imports declining by a less than expected 1.4% (expected -5.0%). Treasury yields are slightly higher. The 2-yr note yield is up one basis point to 3.99%, and the 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 3.43%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.2% to 101.35. WTI crude oil futures… Read More

Morning Brief

Headline News: U.S. stock futures climbed on Wednesday morning after a key inflation reading showed that consumer prices rose less than expected in March. Futures tied to the S&P 500 traded 0.8% higher. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures advanced 221 points, or 0.6%, while Nasdaq-100 futures jumped 1%. The March consumer price index showed a rise of 0.1% in March. Economists polled by Dow Jones were expecting CPI to rise by 0.2% month over month. The report could impact the Federal Reserve’s rate decision come May. It may also cement the case for a stop to the central bank’s rate-hiking regime. “It kind of feels like the calm before the storm,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group. “I mean its light volume, not a lot of big moves today. Traders are just kind of getting the eye on the prize, looking to that big CPI number.” Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March policy meeting are also due out Wednesday and slated to offer further clues into the mindset behind the central bank’s 25 basis point hike in the wake of Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse and the turmoil that rattled the broader banking sector. (Samantha Subin CNBC) Markets: The… Read More

Morning Brief

Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 1 point and are trading in line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 18 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 12 points and are trading slightly below fair value. Equity futures have been mixed again this morning. There’s not a lot of conviction in the market due to a lack of real, impactful corporate news, along with some hesitancy ahead of the March Consumer Price Index tomorrow and earnings from several large banks on Friday. China received pleasing inflation data in the form of the March Consumer Price Index, which was cooler than expected, reducing the yr/yr rate to 0.7%, its lowest level since September 2021. President Biden signed legislation that terminates the national emergency related to the COVID-19 pandemic. NY Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) said he expects inflation pressures to cool gradually and for the unemployment rate to increase to 4.0-4.5%, according to Reuters. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy)   Markets: The S&P 500 traded below support at 4078.93 only to rally, for the third day, back to close higher at 4109.11. However, volume… Read More

Morning Brief

Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 8 points and are trading slightly below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 64 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 12 points and are trading slightly below fair value. Equity futures have been mixed and little changed this morning as investors digest Friday’s March Employment Report, which reflected continued strength in the labor market and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate. Some trepidation ahead of the Q1 earnings reporting season, starting with some of the larger banks reporting their results on Friday, is also driving the price action. In addition, there may be an element of geopolitical angst limiting big moves in the equity futures market after China held two days of military drills around Taiwan this weekend. Treasury yields are pulling back. The 2-yr note yield is down three basis points to 3.93%, and the 10-yr note yield is down four basis points to 3.36%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.1% to 102.20. WTI crude oil futures are up 0.2% to $80.87/bbl, and natural gas futures are up 1.7% to $2.05/mmbtu. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio &… Read More

Morning Brief

Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 3 points and are trading slightly above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 21 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 44 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Equity futures are mixed, but moves in either direction are modest. Following weak economic releases earlier in the week, there’s likely some hesitation in play ahead of this morning’s jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. ET followed by the closely-watched March Employment Report tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. ET. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) said in an interview with Bloomberg TV that Wall Street should be concerned about the debt ceiling. Treasury yields are moving lower this morning. The 2-yr note yield is down five basis points to 3.71%, and the 10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 3.28%. Energy complex futures are mixed. WTI crude oil futures are up 0.4% to $80.94/bbl, and natural gas futures are down 0.5% to $2.15/mmbtu. As a reminder, markets will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy)   Markets: The S&P 500 traded below support at… Read More

Morning Brief

Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 4 points and are trading slightly below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 6 points and are trading slightly below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 24 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Equity futures trade down with only modest losses, indicative of a market in consolidation mode after making a big move up over a short period of time. A few mega-cap stocks sport decent gains this morning, boosting the broader market. Cleveland Fed President Mester (not an FOMC voter) said rates would need to go higher than 5%, according to CNBC. In related central bank news, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its official cash rate by 50 bps to 5.25% against expectations for a 25-bps increase. The 2-yr Treasury note yield is unchanged at 3.83%, and the 10-yr note yield is up two basis points to 3.35%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.1% to 101.70. WTI crude oil futures are unchanged at $80.72/bbl, and natural gas futures are up 0.3% to $2.11/mmbtu. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 4.1%, with purchase applications falling 4.0% and refinancing applications declining… Read More

Morning Brief

Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 12 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 54 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 33 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The stock market is poised for a higher open, with Nasdaq 100 futures outperforming somewhat. The continued resilience to selling efforts has fostered carryover buying interest this morning. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon said in his annual letter to shareholders that the fallout from the regional banking crisis would have repercussions for years to come, but that it is nothing like the 2008 financial crisis. The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate unchanged at 3.60%, as expected. Separately, Finland joins NATO today, becoming its 31st member state. Treasury yields are moving higher this morning. The 2-yr note yield is up three basis points to 4.02%, and the 10-yr note yield is up four basis points to 3.46%. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy)   Markets: The S&P 500 for the fourth day closing higher at 4124.51 and has rallied 4.4% from the 3/28/2023 low of 3951.53.… Read More

Morning Brief

Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 4 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 91 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 122 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. OPEC+ surprised markets with news that it will reduce oil production by another 1 million barrels per day starting in May, according to Bloomberg. According to FT, Saudi Arabia was “irritated” with the Biden Administration after ruling out new purchases of oil to refill the SPR. WTI crude oil futures are up 6.6% to $80.64/bbl. Equity futures indicate a mixed open, with the Dow outperforming as money flows into blue-chip names, with Chevron (CVX) a favored spot. China’s March Caixin Manufacturing PMI was down to 50.0 from 51.6 last month (expected 51.7). This comes ahead of the March ISM Manufacturing Index (Briefing.com consensus 47.5%; prior 47.7%) release this morning at 10:00 a.m. ET. The 2-yr Treasury note yield is up two basis points to 4.09%, and the 10-yr note yield is unchanged at 3.50%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.2% to 102.33. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy)… Read More

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