Headline News: Inflation showed further signs of cooling in June, according to a gauge released Friday that the Federal Reserve follows closely. The personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy, increased just 0.2% from the previous month, in line with the Dow Jones estimate, the Commerce Department said. So-called core PCE rose 4.1% from a year ago, compared to the estimate of 4.2%. The annual rate was the lowest since September 2021. (Jeff Cox CNBC) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied past resistance at 4580.62 early, but sellers came in, and the index tested support at 4527.56 but rallied slightly to close at 4537.41. The RSI index also moved lower in support of the seller to close at 63.77. However, this morning’s tame core PCE inflation report has buyers back, and the S&P is set to open higher by .67%. The internal indicators are still overbought, so today’s trading could be choppy, and we feel the index will remain in the current trading range of 452.756-4580.62. We are currently Intermediate-term bearish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners &… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 7 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 48 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 52 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The stock market is poised for a slightly lower open in front of the FOMC policy decision at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. Investors are expecting a 25 basis points rate hike today, so focus will be turned to Mr. Powell’s commentary. There has also been a heavy batch of earnings since yesterday’s close that investors are reacting to. The calendar after yesterday’s close was headlined by reports from some of the largest names in Tech, which garnered mixed reactions, while some Dow component blue chips have headlined the calendar before today’s open. The 2-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.87%, and the 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 3.89%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied to a new intraday high for the year at 4580.62, but sellers came in,… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 6 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 60 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 17 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The stock market is poised for higher open after yesterday’s advance saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average register its eleventh straight gain. Earnings season is ramping up, and market participants are eyeing key reports after today’s close from some of the largest names in Tech. Some gains in mega-cap stocks have been supportive of the broader market, along with pleasing results from several blue-chip companies. Separately, Chinese markets had a big day (Hang Seng +4.3%; Shanghai +2.1%) in response to talk of added policy stimulus. The 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.87%, and the 10-yr note yield is up three basis points to 3.89%. The FOMC begins its two-day policy meeting today. A new policy directive will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 7 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 44 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 19 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The stock market is poised for a higher open ahead of a busy week of news that will feature earnings results from some of the largest names in Tech. Also, there will be policy meetings for the Fed, the ECB, and the Bank of Japan. The economic calendar will feature a number of key releases highlighted by the Adv. Q2 GDP report and the June Personal Income and Spending Report will include the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge in the form of the core-PCE Price Index. U.S. economic data today is limited to the preliminary July S&P Global US Manufacturing (prior 46.3) Services (prior 54.4) PMI readings at 9:45 a.m. ET. Europe, meanwhile, saw some weaker-than-expected preliminary readings for July manufacturing and services sector activity show continued weakening. Treasury yields are heading lower. The 2-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.82%, and the 10-yr note yield is down five… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 6 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 90 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 35 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Stock futures are mixed as market participants digest a slate of mixed earnings news and continue to contend with concerns about the market being overbought and due for a pullback. Following their massive gains to start the year, a few of the large names in Tech and Comm. Services are showing sizable declines after their second-quarter earnings reports, which is weighing on the broader market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures, meanwhile, outperform thanks to gains in insurers and health care names. In central bank news, the People’s Bank of China made no changes to its one-year and five-year loan prime rates. Treasury yields are moving higher. The 2-yr note yield is up five basis points to 4.81%, and the 10-yr note yield is up four basis points to 3.78%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at another high for the year at 4565.72, and… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down five points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up three points and are trading fractionally above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 78 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The equity futures market is mixed as price action cools off a bit following last week’s rally and ahead of a big week of Q2 earnings reporting and economic data. That said, there isn’t much in the way of key earnings and economic news out of the U.S. this morning, yet both will crank up starting Tuesday, and the June Retail Sales and Industrial Production reports headlining the economic calendar. In the meantime, some added attention is being paid to some mixed data out of China overnight. That data included a weaker-than-expected 6.3% year-over-year increase in Q2 GDP and a weaker-than-expected 3.1% year-over-year increase in June retail sales that was pitted against a stronger-than-expected 3.8% year-over-year increase in Fixed Asset Investment and an acceleration in industrial production versus the prior month. The mixed economic news out of China has contributed to the lackluster action in the equity futures market and the… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up five points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are flat and are trading roughly in-line fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 150 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. Positive responses to better-than-expected earnings results from a large bank and healthcare company have the DJIA futures at the front of the equity futures pack this morning. The broader market, however, is looking more subdued this morning after a big run already this week. Market participants are likely anticipating some profit-taking activity, but at the same time, sellers aren’t exhibiting much conviction, cognizant that there has been a steady desire to buy on weakness. Accordingly, one could rightfully say there is a bit of a wait-and-see attitude permeating pre-market trading. Separately, Fed Governor Waller (FOMC voter) said his thinking is aligned with two more rate hikes over the next four FOMC meetings this year and sees no reason why the first of those two hikes should not happen at the July FOMC meeting. Today’s economic reports include the June Import-Export Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET and the Preliminary July University of Michigan… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 16 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 103 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 74 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. Stock futures are higher, benefiting from carryover momentum and continued buying interest in the mega-cap stocks. There’s also likely some fear of missing out on further gains driving the continued strength. China reported trade data for June that reflected a larger than expected year-over-year decline in both imports (actual -6.8%; expected -4.0%; last -4.5%) and exports (actual -12.4%; expected -9.5%; last -7.5%). This acted as another data point that fueled talk of policy stimulus. Separately, the Bank of Korea left its base rate unchanged at 3.50%, as expected, but also left the door open to an additional rate hike in the future. U.S. Treasury yields are lower this morning. The 2-yr note yield is down seven basis points to 4.67%, and the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 3.82%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.3% to 100.24. These moves are happening in front of the Producer Price… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 8 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 38 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 40 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The stock market is poised for a modestly higher open, carrying over upside momentum from yesterday’s broad rally. Some of the mega caps are bouncing back from losses registered yesterday, boosting the broader market. Market participants remain in wait-and-see mode ahead of the June Consumer Price Index tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. ET. U.S. economic data today was limited to the NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey for June, which rose to 91.0 from 89.4 in May. Separately, the People’s Bank of China announced a continuation of policies aimed at maintaining a stable and healthy development of the real estate market until the end of 2024. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded down to the 20-day moving average at 4387.64 only to rally to close higher at 4409.53. So, we know the 20-day moving average is now potentially strong support, and we feel buyers will come in… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are flat and are trading roughly in line with fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 8 points and are trading fractionally below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 33 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The stock futures market has been mixed, yet little changed. Following Friday’s softer finish that featured a late afternoon slide in the mega cap stocks, market participants are waiting to see if there will be any follow-through selling or if there will be an inclination to buy into weakness. The wait-and-see mentality also comes ahead of the start of earnings reporting season at the end of the week. Before that, market participants will receive the June Consumer Price Index on Wednesday. On a related note, China’s CPI was unchanged yr/yr in the June reading, while PPI (-5.4% yr/yr) contracted for the ninth consecutive month, falling at its fastest pace in seven years. These reports have fueled speculation about additional policy stimulus in China. The 2-yr Treasury note yield is down four basis points to 4.90%, and the 10-yr note yield is unchanged at 4.04%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) … Read More
