Wealth Management Firm Near Me - Facebook Icon IMG  Wealth Planning Near Me - Certified Financial Planners Twitter Icon IMG   Find A Financial Advisor Near Me - Wealth Planners Linkedin Icon IMG 

678.971.1337

Access Your Account Online

☰ Menu
Market Updates

Morning Brief

July 13th, 2023

Headline News:

The S&P 500 futures are up 16 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 103 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 74 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value.

Stock futures are higher, benefiting from carryover momentum and continued buying interest in the mega-cap stocks. There’s also likely some fear of missing out on further gains driving the continued strength.

China reported trade data for June that reflected a larger than expected year-over-year decline in both imports (actual -6.8%; expected -4.0%; last -4.5%) and exports (actual -12.4%; expected -9.5%; last -7.5%). This acted as another data point that fueled talk of policy stimulus.

Separately, the Bank of Korea left its base rate unchanged at 3.50%, as expected, but also left the door open to an additional rate hike in the future.

U.S. Treasury yields are lower this morning. The 2-yr note yield is down seven basis points to 4.67%, and the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 3.82%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.3% to 100.24. These moves are happening in front of the Producer Price Index for June and the weekly initial jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. ET.

(Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager)

 

Markets:

The S&P 500 gapped higher and opened above the 4456.44 resistance level. The index traded near the next resistance level of 4512.94, but sellers came in, and the index closed at 4472.16. In the short term, the RSI index did not make a new high, making the recent rally suspect. However, in the long term, the advance/decline line did achieve a high for the year. So, the next few trading days could be choppy, and resistance at 4512.94 should hold, but the overall trend now appears to be higher.

We are currently Intermediate-term bearish and short-term bullish.    

 

John N. Lilly III CPFA
Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠
Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠
Portfolio Manager, RJFS
Partner, DJWMG
Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist

 

Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and futures trading could present additional risk based on underlying commodities investments.

 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and changes of price movements.

 

The advance/decline line (A/D) is a technical indicator that plots the difference between the number of advancing and declining stocks on a daily basis. The indicator is cumulative, with a positive number being added to the prior number, or if the number is negative, it is subtracted from the prior number.

The A/D line is used to show market sentiment, as it tells traders whether there are more stocks rising or falling. It is used to confirm price trends in major indexes and can also warn of reversals when divergence occurs.

 

 

The percentage of stocks trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The 50-day moving average is used for short-to-medium-term timeframes, while the 150-day and 200-day moving averages are used for medium-to-long-term timeframes. Signals can be derived from overbought/oversold levels, crosses above/below 50%, and bullish/bearish divergences.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stocks of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represent approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index.

 

 

 

The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S stock market. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investors’ results will vary. Opinions expressed are those of the author John N. Lilly III, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. “There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecast provided herein will prove to be correct. “The information contained was received from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Investing always involves risk, and you may incur a profit or loss. No investment strategy can guarantee success. The charts and/or tables presented herein are for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered as the sole basis for your investment decision. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, different financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets.

 

 

 

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any company’s stock mentioned above.

 

US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value.  US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government.  Bond prices and yields are subject to change based on market conditions and availability. If bonds are sold prior to maturity, you may receive more or less than your initial investment. Holding bonds to term allows redemption at par value. There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and bond prices. Generally, when interest rates rise, bond prices fall, and when interest rates fall, bond prices generally rise.

 

The Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) is a stock market index made up of 103 equity securities issued by 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the NASDAQ. It is a modified capitalization-weighted index. It is based on exchange, and it is not an index of U.S.-based companies. 

 

 

 

 

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, marketed as Windsor Wealth Planners and Strategist. Investment advisory services offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc. Windsor Wealth Planners and Stategist is separately owned and operated and not independently registered as a broker-dealer or investment adviser.

Raymond James financial advisors may only conduct business with residents of the states and/or jurisdications for which they are propertly registered.  Therefore, a response to a request for information may be delayed. 

Please note that not all of the investments and services mentioned are available in every state.  Investors outside of the United States are subject to securities and tax regulations within their application jurisdications that are not addressed on this site.  Contact your local Raymond James office for information and availability. Links are being provided for information purposes only. 

Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. 

Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website's users and/or members.