Inflation accelerated further in May, with prices rising 8.6% from a year ago for the fastest increase since December 1981, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.
The consumer price index, a wide-ranging measure of goods and services prices, increased even more than the 8.3% Dow Jones estimate. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core CPI was up 6%, slightly higher than the 5.9% estimate.
On a monthly basis, headline CPI was up 1% while core rose 0.6%, compared to respective estimates of 0.7% and 0.5%.
Surging shelter, gasoline and food prices all contributed to the increase.
Energy prices broadly rose 3.9% from a month ago, bringing the annual gain to 34.6%. Within the category, fuel oil posted a 16.9% monthly gain, pushing the 12-month surge to 106.7%.
Shelter costs, which account for about a one-third weighting on the CPI, rose 0.6% for the month and now are 5.5% higher from a year ago.
Finally, food costs climbed another 1.2% in May, bringing the year-over-year gain to 10.1%.
Those escalating prices meant workers took another pay cut during the month. Real wages when accounting for inflation fell 0.6% in April, even though average hourly earnings rose 0.3%. On a 12-month basis, real average hourly earnings were down 3%.
(Jeff Cox CNBC)
The S&P 500 sold off heavy and closed at 4017.82, below the lower end of the recent trading range. The selling came with down volume accounting for 93% of the day’s trading volume. The RSI index moved below the 50 level to close at 44.16 in support of the selloff. It appears a new downtrend is possibly forming to test the old low set at 381.32 on 5/20/2022. That scenario became more likely after the release of a higher-than-expected CPI report this morning. So far this morning, the S&P 500 futures are lower by 1%, with a suggested open at 3973.5. If so, the index will take out potential support at 3975.48 and make 3911.91 the next possible support level.
We are currently Intermediate-term bearish and short-term bearish.
John N. Lilly III CPFA
Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠
Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠
Portfolio Manager, RJFS
Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist
Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and futures trading could present additional risk based on underlying commodities investments.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and changes of price movements.
The advance/decline line (A/D) is a technical indicator that plots the difference between the number of advancing and declining stocks on a daily basis. The indicator is cumulative, with a positive number being added to the prior number, or if the number is negative it is subtracted from the prior number.
The A/D line is used to show market sentiment, as it tells traders whether there are more stocks rising or falling. It is used to confirm price trends in major indexes, and can also warn of reversals when divergence occurs.
The percentage of stocks trading above a specific moving average is a breadth indicator that measures internal strength or weakness in the underlying index. The 50-day moving average is used for short-to-medium-term timeframes, while the 150-day and 200-day moving averages are used for medium-to-long-term timeframes. Signals can be derived from overbought/oversold levels, crosses above/below 50% and bullish/bearish divergences.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represent approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index.
The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S stock market. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investors’ results will vary. Opinions expressed are those of the author John N. Lilly III, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. “There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecast provided herein will prove to be correct. “The information contained was received from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Investing always involves risk, and you may incur a profit or loss. No investment strategy can guarantee success. The charts and/or tables presented herein are for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered as the sole basis for your investment decision. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, different financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any company’s stock mentioned above.
US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Bond prices and yields are subject to change based upon market conditions and availability. If bonds are sold prior to maturity, you may receive more or less than your initial investment. Holding bonds to term allows redemption at par value. There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and bond prices. Generally, when interest rates rise, bond prices fall and when interest rates fall, bond prices generally rise.