Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up four points and are trading fractionally above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 30 points. They are trading 0.1% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 46 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. This morning, a wave of stimulus measures announced by China to fuel stronger economic growth is receiving considerable attention. The 7-day reverse repurchase rate will be lowered by 20 basis points to 1.50%, the required reserve ratio will be cut by 50 basis points, the down payment requirement for second-home buyers will be reduced to 15% from 25%, and there will be a CNY800 bln ($113 bln) liquidity support facility for stocks. This news catalyzed a 4.2% gain in the Shanghai Composite and a 4.1% gain in Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index. The carryover effect to foreign markets hasn’t been as pronounced, but China’s stimulus measures have provided some support. Questions remain, though, as to whether these measures will be enough to jumpstart consumer demand and fend off deflationary pressures. The U.S. market isn’t primed to rally at today’s open. Yet, it is showing resilience to selling pressure following yesterday’s… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up nine points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 40 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 20 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Early trading has a positive bias. Pre-open gains in some mega caps have contributed to the upside action and carryover momentum after last week’s solid move higher in the major indices. The 2-year note yield is unchanged from Friday at 3.57%, and the 10-year yield is up two basis points to 3.75%. Elsewhere, Soft Manufacturing and Services PMIs from the eurozone boosted speculation about an October rate cut from the European Central Bank. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a tight pattern and closed lower at 5,702.55 on Friday. There is now overhead resistance, potentially at 5,733.57, and possible support at 5,651.62. It would be healthy for the index to build another multiday base at these levels to consolidate the recent gains. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 13 points and trading 0.2% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 77 points and trading 0.4% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are flat and trading in line with fair value. Contracts tied to the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow industrials have decreased after yesterday’s rate cut-induced rally. Volume is expected to be above average on this “quadruple witching” expiration day, which includes the expiration of index options, index futures, stock options, and single-stock futures. Pre-open losses in some mega-cap names have contributed to the early downside bias. The 10-year yield is down one basis point to 3.73%, and the 2-year yield is up one basis point to 3.61%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied sharply to a new intraday all-time high of 5,733.57, but the sellers came in, and the index closed at a new all-time high of 5,713.64. The volume was only 2,798,258,944 and the up volume only came in at 74% of the total. So, we feel there is a new uptrend, but the trading could be choppy in the future. Also, the index is at… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 95 points and are trading 1.7 % above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 420 points and are trading 2.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 491 points and are trading 1.2% above fair value. Stock futures are in rally mode this morning after the major indices finished slightly lower following yesterday’s more pronounced Fed rate decrease. The early upside bias stems from a belief that the economy is headed for a soft landing scenario and that the Fed will cut rates as needed to ensure that outcome. Pre-open gains in the mega caps and chipmakers have also contributed to the upside bias. Weakening labor market data contributed to recent fears about growth prospects, which led to a sharp sell-off in stocks last month. So, participants will be focused on the 8:30 ET release of weekly jobless claims, which continue to run below recession-like levels. As expected, the Bank of England maintained its bank rate at 5.00%. The 10-year yield is up three basis points to 3.71%, and the 2-year yield is down two basis points to 3.58%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager)… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up three points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 28 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 33 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Early trading has a positive bias ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC policy decision at 2:00 ET. The committee is expected to lower rates for the first time since March 2020. Pre-open gains in some mega-cap names have contributed to the upside action. Treasury yields are higher ahead of the September FOMC Statement. The 10-yr yield is three basis points higher at 3.67%, and the 2-yr yield is three basis points higher at 3.62%. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index rose 14.2%, with refinance applications surging 24% and purchase applications jumping 5%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded above the resistance level at 5,651.62, but the sellers came in, and the index closed at 5,634.58. Today’s trading should be muted until 2:00 P.M. when the Federal Reserve announces the direction of interest rates. We feel the market has priced in a .50 bps hike, and selling… Read More
The U.S. economy created slightly fewer jobs than expected in August, reflecting a slowing labor market while also clearing the way for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates later this month.
Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 142,000 during the month, down from 89,000 in July and below the 161,000 consensus forecast from Dow Jones, according to a report Friday from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 10 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 45 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 260 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. There’s a positive bias in early action. After reporting earnings, a solid pre-open gain in a Dow component has boosted futures linked to Dow industrials. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are also trading higher despite a pre-market decline in shares of a semiconductor company following its highly anticipated earnings report. Other mega-cap names are higher in early trading, contributing to the upside bias. Treasury yields are little changed. The 10-year note yield is down one basis point to 3.83%, and the 2-year note yield is down one basis point to 3.86%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed within the current trading range for the seventh day after briefly trading below the 5,566.16 level. The RSI index turned lower, suggesting that there could be more short-term weakness ahead. Nvidia’s earnings report was poorly received, and the stock was lower in pre-market trading. However, the S&P… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down six points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down ten points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 11 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Equity futures trade was flattish. The market still lacks major directional drivers ahead of a major semiconductor company’s earnings report tomorrow afternoon. Investors are also in vacation mode in front of Labor Day. Today’s economic lineup features the release of the August Consumer Confidence Index at 10:00 ET, along with the June FHFA Housing Price Index and June S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index at 9:00 ET. The 10-yr note yield is up three basis points to 3.85% and the 2-yr note yield sits at 2.95%, which is two basis points higher than yesterday’s settlement. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The SP& 500 briefly traded above the resistance at 5,643.22, but the sellers came in, and the index closed at 5,616.84. So, this is the fifth day of trading in a base and inside the trading range, and we are hopeful the base will continue to build this… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up five points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 18 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down eight points and are trading fractionally below fair value. Contracts tied to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials are flattish this morning after a big run in equity markets. The S&P 500 was 1.1% below its all-time high at yesterday’s close after flirting with correction territory earlier this month (i.e., a 10% decline from the recent high). Market participants are still in wait-and-see mode ahead of Wednesday’s release of benchmark revisions for nonfarm payrolls and the FOMC Minutes for the July 30-31 meeting. This will be followed by Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. The 10-year note yield is unchanged at 3.87%, and the 2-year note yield is down two basis points to 4.05%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied once again, but the volume continues to be below average, suggesting the rally is not broad-based. The index closed at 5,608.25, and the RSI index… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up three points and trading 0.1% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 11 points and trading 0.1% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down five points and trading fractionally below fair value. Stock futures are flattish ahead of a busy week. Earnings reporting picks up steam, especially in the retail and tech spaces, and Fed Chair Powell will speak in Jackson Hole. On Wednesday, the market will receive the Minutes from the July 30-31 FOMC meeting. The 10-year note yield is down two basis points to 3.87%, and the 2-year note yield is down one basis point to 4.05%. Today’s economic data is limited to the July Leading Indicators Index at 10:00 ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied for the fourth day, closing at 5,554.25, and we are hopeful a new base to consolidate gains has started. The RSI index is solidly above the 50 level, but the internal indicators are now back in the overbought zone. So, the current potential resistance at 5,566.16 should be challenging to take out this week unless there is a new catalyst… Read More
