Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 11 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 94 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are flat and are trading roughly in line with fair value. Early trading as the new month begins has a mostly positive bias. Treasury yields are slightly lower, supporting equities. The 10-year note yield is down four basis points to 4.47%, and the 2-year note yield is down three basis points to 4.86%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 spent most of the day below the 20-day moving average, but the index mounted an impressive late rally to close higher at 5,277.51. The buyers came in just above the 50-day moving average, and the RSI index rallied to support the rally. The up volume was 71% of the total, which showed the buying did have some intensity. The 10-year treasury closed below 4.5%, and we feel the recent uptrend in the yield could be over. So, if the S&P 500 can rally again today and close in the middle of the old trading range, a new… Read More
Headline News: Economists have been parsing the PCE report to try to glean which way inflation is headed and one key data point suggests price rises might be calming down. The three-month annualized rate of inflation slowed to 3.8% in April from 4.4% in March. That’s what the rate of U.S. inflation would be for all of 2024 if prices increased at the same rate in the final eight months of the year as they did in the February-to-April time frame. Still, the current three-month annualized rate is well above the 0.6% recording as recently as last December. The rate typically averaged 2% or less in the decade before the pandemic. The six-month annualized rate of inflation, on the other hand, rose to 2.9% in April from 2.5% in March. But that figure is a less up-to-date measure of which direction inflation is headed. (Jeffry Bartash MarketWatch) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 5,235.48 and below the 20-day moving average at 5,243.95, and the RSI index closed at 51.72, just above the critical 50 level. However, the up volume was 68% of the total volume, showing that the selling was not intense. If the selling continues today, the… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up six points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 45 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 40 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Stock futures indicate a mixed open for the major indices on the first session of this holiday-shortened week. Premarket gains in a large tech company, which is reacting to news that China shipments increased 52% last month and news that Elon Musk’s xAI will spend billions on AI chips, have supported the broader market this morning. Treasury yields are little changed this morning. The 10-year note yield is up one basis point to 4.47%, and the 2-year note yield is down two basis points to 4.93%. Today’s economic calendar includes the March FHFA Housing Price Index and March S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index at 9:00 ET and the May Consumer Confidence Index at 10:00 ET. Other notable US data this week include the second estimate of Q1 GDP on Thursday and the Personal Income and Spending report for April on Friday. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 13 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 58 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 65 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The early positive bias is fueled by pre-open gains in mega-cap stocks. The upside bias is also related to rebound action after this week’s losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 are each down more than 2.0% this week. There’s also some hesitation in play in front of the extended holiday weekend. Markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day. The activity in Treasuries has been muted so far. The 10-yr note yield is unchanged at 4.48%, and the 2-yr note yield is up one basis point to 4.94%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off by 0.74%, and the total down volume was 85% of the overall trading. The index closed below support at 4,283.59 and briefly tested and held the current potential support level at 4,264.85. The down volume indicates there could potentially be more selling, and we feel… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 35 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 205 points and are trading 1.1% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 64 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. Contracts tied to the Nasdaq 100 are sharply higher following a leading semiconductor company posting impressive earnings results. The shares are up about 7.0% ahead of the open after reporting better-than-expected earnings and revenue accompanied by above-consensus guidance. Other large-cap stocks and AI-related names are higher in pre-market action in sympathy. Treasury yields are slightly lower, providing added support to equities. The 10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.42%, and the 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.87%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded down to support at 4,283.59, but the buyers stepped in to help the index rally to close at 5,307.01. A five-day base has formed and firmly established the trading range of 4,283.59- 5,325.39, and today’s trading should also remain in that range. Nivida (NVDA) earnings were better than expected, but that news was negated after… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down nine points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down three points and are trading fractionally below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 88 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. There’s a negative bias in early trading, but true to this week’s form, there’s not a lot of conviction fueling the activity. Market participants are still in wait-and-see mode in front of earnings after the close. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index jumped 1.9% after last week’s 0.5% increase. Other data today include the Existing Home Sales report for April at 10:00 ET and the weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30 ET. The Minutes for the April 30-May 1 FOMC meeting will be released at 2:00 ET. Treasury yields are higher in front of the data and the Minutes. The 10-year note yield is up four basis points to 4.45%, and the 2-year note yield is up four basis points to 4.87%. Elsewhere, commodity prices are lower this morning. WTI crude oil futures are down 1.0% to $77.87/bbl, natural gas futures are down 0.1% to $2.67/mmbtu, and copper futures… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 22 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 123 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 82 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. There’s a negative disposition in early trading today in front of market-moving events. The Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement, which details how the Treasury plans to borrow this money across the yield curve, will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. The latest policy move by the FOMC will be announced at 2:00 ET, followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 ET. Market participants will be focused on any tonal shifts in rhetoric from Mr. Powell following recent sticky inflation readings. Investors are also responding to another heavy slate of earnings news. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off sharply by 1.49% on fears of a hawkish Federal Reserve. The index closed at 5,035.69 with a volume of 2,766,668,80,0, and 88% was downside volume. The RSI index did not cross the 50 level and closed at 43.12 in support of the selling. So, the uptrend is… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up two points and trading slightly above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 23 points and trading 0.1% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 20 points and trading 0.1% above fair value. Stock futures indicate a flattish open after the major indices hit fresh record intraday highs yesterday before turning lower, settling with modest losses. The major indices are still sitting on solid gains this week, ranging from 0.9% to 2.2%. Market rates are rising again this morning, limiting buying in equities somewhat. The 10-year note yield is up two basis points to 4.40%, and the 2-year note yield is up one basis point to 4.80%. However, the 10-year note yield is still down five basis points from Tuesday’s close in front of the CPI report, and the 2-year note yield is down two basis points from Tuesday. Today’s economic lineup is limited to the April Leading Indicators Index at 10:00 ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded up to a new intra-day high at 5,325.49 and the upper Bollinger band, but the sellers came in, and the index closed… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up two and are trading slightly above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 25 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 11 points and are trading fractionally above fair value. Contracts tied to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average are higher this morning following yesterday’s solid gains. The CPI-induced rally left the major indices at record highs as market rates pulled back. Treasuries are little changed from yesterday. The 10-year note yield is down three basis points to 4.33%, and the 2-year note yield is up one basis point to 4.75%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied sharply by .88%, blowing past resistance, and closed at a new all-time high at 5,308.15. The RSI index also closed higher and is just below the overbought zone. Although the percent gain was impressive, the demand could have been more robust, with up volume only 70% of the overall volume. Also, the breadth indicators are overbought, making another rally difficult today. Potential support could now come in at 5,264.85, and there is no overhead resistance.… Read More
Headline News: The cost of consumer goods and services rose 0.3% in April, largely because of higher oil prices and housing costs, as inflation remained elevated in key parts of the economy. Yet the consumer price index increase last month fell below the 0.4% forecast of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. Wall Street is also likely to take some solace from a relatively modest 0.3% increase in the core rate of inflation, which excludes food and energy. It was the smallest rise in four months. (Jeffry Bartash MarketWatch) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied up to the resistance at 5,256.59 but failed to break out, closing at 5,246.68. The RSI index moved higher, closing at 64.22, and the up volume was 79% of the overall volume. Also, this morning, the April CPI report came in below expectations, and the S&P 500 futures were higher by .56% before the opening of trading. The S&P 500 should at least test the all-time high of 5,263.95, and after forming a three-day base, the index has a chance to close at a new all-time high. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠… Read More
