Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 11 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 108 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down five points and are trading roughly in-line with fair value. Early trading has a mostly positive feel as market participants react to another slate of earnings news. Shares of one of the influential names that reported earnings after Tuesday’s close are up sharply despite missing estimates. The pre-open price action reflects positive sentiment around the production of affordable models, which the CEO said will begin in early 2025 if not late 2024. Contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were lower earlier, but a big pre-open gain in one of the components after pleasing earnings news drove the recent improvement. Other notable names that reported earnings also received positive responses to earnings results, which has contributed to the overall positive bias. Separately, CEO Jamie Dimon says US economy is “booming” but he is cautious regarding a soft landing, according to FT. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index dropped 2.7% after mortgage rates rose for a third consecutive week.… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 10 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 37 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 41 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. This morning’s modestly positive bias is rooted in carryover interest from yesterday’s rebound effort, as well as some pleasing earnings results from some industrial companies. A continued downturn in oil prices ($81.50, -0.40, -0.5%) has helped improve sentiment a bit, although Treasury yields remain elevated, with the 2-yr note yield again pressing 5.00% and the 10-yr note yield sitting at 4.64%. There is a $69 billion 2-yr note auction today. Results will be released at 1:00 p.m. ET, and they hold market-moving potential. Today’s economic calendar features the March New Home Sales Report (Brieifng.com consensus 670K; prior 662K) at 10:00 a.m. ET (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied sharply and closed at 5,010.60, higher by .87%. Up volume accounted for 73% of the total, and the RSI turned higher, closing at 37.90 in support of the rally. We feel the S&P 500 will be… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 28 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 100 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 230 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. Early trading features an upside bias after recent stock market losses. With Friday’s close, the NASDAQ Composite logged its fourth straight losing week. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average are sitting on three consecutive weeks of declines. The initial buying activity this morning reflects an inclination to buy on weakness. This week’s calendar includes earnings results from some influential large-cap tech names. On Friday, market participants will also receive the Fed’s preferred gauge on inflation, the PCE Price Indexes. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower for the sixth straight day and is now at 4,967.23. The index remained outside the lower Bollinger Band, and the RSI index closed lower at 31.29. Markets are reacting to the continued rise in the U.S. ten-year treasury, which closed higher at 4.63% on Friday. The breadth and internal indicators are firmly in the oversold zones,… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down seven points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 49 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 80 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. There is a negative bias in early trading after Israel conducted a limited military strike against Iran. Contracts linked to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average had been lower but recovered somewhat as participants focused on the lack of major damage from the strike. Oil prices initially spiked, sending WTI crude oil futures above $85.00/bbl, but prices quickly pulled back. WTI crude oil futures are down 0.7% to $81.54/bbl, suggesting that the market doesn’t expect any major disruptions in oil supplies following the new developments in the Middle East. Treasury yields are lower. The 2-year note yield is down two basis points to 4.97%, and the 10-year note yield is down five basis points to 4.60%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 was lower for the fifth day and closed at 5,011.12. The index is now outside the lower Bollinger Band, and… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 11 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 24 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 235 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value. Stock futures indicate a higher open after recent declines. The positive bias is fueled in part by a buy-the-dip mentality, along with positive responses to some earnings news. A big pre-open gain in a Dow component after reporting earnings has provided an added boost to contracts linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. While others also garnered positive responses to their quarterly results, some are little changed in front of the open following above-consensus results. The overall upside vibe has also been supported by pleasing data from China, which reported strong-than-expected growth in GDP in Q1. Industrial production growth and retail sales growth, however, did not beat expectations. Today’s US economic releases include the March Housing Starts and Building Permits report at 8:30 ET and the March Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization at 9:15 ET. Treasury yields are little changed in front of the data. The 10-yr note yield is… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 27 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 107 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 207 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. Stock futures indicate a higher open to start the new week. The positive bias is related to relief that Iran’s attack on Israel didn’t cause any real damage, along with the hope that the conflict in the Middle East does not break out into a full-fledged war. Treasury yields are moving higher. The 10-yr note yield is up seven basis points to 4.57%, and the 2-yr note yield is up seven basis points to 4.96%. Today’s economic calendar features: March Retail Sales (prior 0.6%) and Retail Sales ex-auto (prior 0.3%) at 8:30 ET; February Business Inventories (prior 0.0%) and April NAHB Housing Market Index (prior 51) at 10:00 ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off sharply and briefly undercut the support of the 50-day moving average of 5,111.17, but buyers came in at that level, and the index closed at 5,123.41. The volume was… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up five points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 40 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 12 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Stock futures are little changed as market participants wait for key events this week. The March Consumer Price Index will be released tomorrow, the Producer Price Index will be released Thursday, and some influential banks report first-quarter earnings in front of the open on Friday. Today’s economic data was limited to the March NFIB Small Business Optimism, which declined to 88.5 from 89.4 in February. Treasury yields are lower. The 10-yr note yield is down four basis points to 4.38%, and the 2-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.76%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a tight range and closed lower at 5,202.39, just above the support level at 5,189.26. The volume was below average at 1,987,205,248, and the RSI index was also flat, closing at 55.62. So, the trading day was essential a pause after two wide-range trading days.… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are flat and trading roughly in line with fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up seven points and trading fractionally above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 11 points and trading fractionally above fair value. Stock futures indicate a flattish open. This follows last week’s solid declines as market rates moved sharply higher and participants recalibrated rate-cut expectations. This morning’s muted action reflects some hesitation in front of a busy week. Participants receive another inflation reading from the March Consumer Price Index on Wednesday. Also, the earnings reporting period picks up on Friday with results from some big banks. Treasury yields are moving higher. The 10-year note yield is back above 4.40%, up eight basis points to 4.46%, and the 2-year note yield is up six basis points to 4.79%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P rallied and closed higher by 1.11% and the resistance level at 5,204.34. The RSI index also increased, closing above the 50 level at 55.91. The S&P 500 is also back above the 20-day moving average at 5,190.76, so all of these are positive for the index. We feel a… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 15 points and trading 0.3% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 75 points and trading 0.4% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 90 points and trading 0.2% above fair value. Contracts tied to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average are higher this morning after yesterday’s afternoon sell-off. Pre-open gains in the mega-cap stocks are contributing to the positive bias ahead of the March employment report’s 8:30 ET release. Treasury yields are little changed ahead of the report. The 10-yr note yield is up two basis points to 4.33%, and the 2-yr note yield is up two basis points to 4.66%. The price action in Treasuries has been influential in driving stock market moves this week, so market participants will be keenly focused on the reaction in Treasuries to this morning’s data. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off sharply late in the day, closing lower at 5,147.21, below its 20-day moving average. The volume was above average, but the down volume was only 74% of the total. Also, the RSI index closed lower at… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 19 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 74 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 162 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. Stock futures indicate a higher open after yesterday’s late afternoon slide. Pre-open gains in mega-cap stocks have boosted the broader market after leading the downside moves yesterday. Treasuries are not moving much this morning. The 10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.22%, and the 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.59%. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index declined 0.7% with purchase applications falling 2% and refinance applications down 0.2% from the prior week. Other data today include the weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30 ET. WTI crude oil futures are down 0.4% to $81.31/bbl; natural gas futures are down 1.9% to $1.76/mmbtu; and copper futures are down 0.4% to $3.99/lbs. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 5,203.58 and is now just above potential support at 5,189.26. The recent selling has been low-volume, so we feel… Read More
