Headline News: Wall Street is set for a lower open after Goldman Sachs lowered its 2022 growth estimate to 4% from 4.4%, and they also reduced the 2021 estimate to 5.6% from 5.7%. The U.S. economy appears to be slowing after Friday’s weak unemployment report. The September Nonfarm payrolls rose by only 194,000 VS. the estimate of 500,000. Meanwhile, the third-quarter earnings season starts this week as analysts estimate a growth rate of 27.6% for S&P 500 companies. JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Citigroup (C) will announce this week. Markets: The S&P 500 had an inside day pattern on Friday and never challenged support or resistance line. Today, the index is set to open lower and immediately test old resistance at 4367.73. If so, the gap formed on 10/7/2021 will be filled, and buyers could potentially come back in and move the index higher. The recent trading action has moved us back to a short-term bullish stance today. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set for a higher open after Congress appeared to agree on a deal that would raise the debt limit in the short term. Also, lower energy prices and a stable 10-yr yield at 1.52% have eased some investors’ recent concerns. Markets: The S&P 500 rallied off support and closed higher at 4363.55 and just under potential resistance at 4367.73. The RSI index moved higher in support of the rally closing higher at 45.07. So far this morning, the S&P 500 futures are indicating an open at 4398.00. If that should hold, we feel a potential bottom is now possible in place. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and futures trading could present additional risk based on underlying commodities investments. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and changes of price movements. The advance/decline line (A/D) is a technical indicator that… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set for a sell-off when the market opens after rising oil prices brought on fears of higher inflation. The 10-year yield traded at the highest yield since June, and that has investors selling mega-tech companies again this morning. A rise in inflation could force the Federal Reserve to begin a bond tapering policy sooner than expected. However, this morning the ADP U.S private payrolls increased by 568,000 jobs last month, which was more than expected, showing the U.S. economy is continuing to reopen. Markets: The S&P 500 rallied up to resistance at 4367.73 but sold off late to close higher at 4345.72. It appears this was only a snapback rally because the index is set to open below 4300 this morning. So, the potential support level at 4289.37 becomes critical and needs to hold again in today’s trading. We feel the index will test that level again today, and we are hoping for buyers to set up in a stage a late-day rally. If that level does not hold, then the next level of possible support becomes 4233.13. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures are higher after a tech-focused selling took the S&P 500 lower on Monday. U.S. Treasury yields were are higher again today as concerns about a government shutdown continue to grow. President Biden said the federal government could breach the $28.4 trillion debt limit if a deal is not reached to raise the limit in the next two weeks. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen cautioned that inflation pressures will likely let up eventually, “but that doesn’t mean they’ll go away in the next several months.” Markets: The S&P 500 sold off below the support line at 4305.91 and closed lower at 4300.06. The index traded down to 4278.94, which will now become the potential next support level. The RSI index moved lower but has not moved into the oversold zone. So, the S&P 500 desperately needs to rally back above the 4305.91 and close higher today to avoid another potential heavy selling day today. This morning futures are higher, and the index is set to open higher, around 4310.50. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set for a lower open as an uptick in the 10- Year Treasury puts pressure back on large-cap tech stocks. The U.S. 10-year yield was up by seventeen basis points to a yield of 1.48% in pre-market trading. The yield rally has been supported by increased consumer spending, higher factory activity, and an increase in inflation growth. Investors will again be awaiting Friday’s unemployment report, which could cause the Federal Reserve to taper the bond-buying program. Markets: The S&P 500 had a rebound rally on Friday and closed higher at 4357.04. The index traded down to support at 4289.37, then had a textbook “bounce” off support, and then rallied up to resistance at 4367.73 before selling came back into the markets. So, we feel the double bottom trading pattern was a potential bottom for the recent selloff. Today, we think the index could open lower and then try to rally to, possibly, close above possible resistance at 4367.73. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative,… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set for a higher open after a report on consumer spending came in better than expected. The Commerce reported consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, increased 0.8% in August. Personal income rose 0.2%, and the price index for core personal consumption expenditures was 3.6% year over year. Meanwhile, Merck (MRK) announced their oral antiviral treatment for COVID-19 reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by 50% for patients with mild or moderate cases. Markets: The S&P 500 sold off hard down to support at 4305.54 and closed at 4307.54. The trading came with 2,283,809,792 shares traded, and RSI also moved lower to close at 34.17, just above the oversold zone. Our opinion is the index tested the low on 9/20/2021 of 4305.54 and will now form a double bottom setting up a rally today. If the index can close higher, buyers could come back into the markets looking to buy the dip. If the selling should continue, there is potential strong support at the 4289.37 level; however, we feel the index will potentially rally and close higher. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set to open higher after the U.S. Senate reached a deal to avoid a government shutdown. A vote on the stopgap measure has been scheduled for Thursday morning and then will need to pass the House. The 10-year Treasury yield was also three basis points lower at 1.52%, which has investors looking at beaten-down large-cap stocks again this morning. Markets: The S&P moved past resistance at 4367.73 but sold off later in the day to close lower at 4359.46. The trading was tame, but the internals we monitor moved to a short-term sell signal. So, we will also move to short-term bearish, but we remain long-term bullish. At this time, we don’t see an impending bear market on the horizon and only see more choppy trading in the near term. The whipsaw action of the internals is typical for September, and caution is still warranted. Today, the index is set to open higher, and a close above 4367.73 would be encouraging. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set for a higher open as investors appear to be buying the dip on beaten-down technology stocks this morning. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield moved lower to 1.51% after topping out at 1.56% on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Congress they have until October 18 to raise or suspend the debt ceiling, and a failure to do so would have severe consequences. Markets: The S&P sold off heavy on Tuesday, closing at 4352.63 on volume of 2,407,266,304, and RSI moved below the 50 level closing at 38.11. The trading has brought a swift end to the recent uptrend, and the index has work to do in the coming days to get back on track. Potential resistance is now at 4367.73, and we are hopeful that level will be reclaimed today. If not possible, support could now come in at 4346.33 and then at 4305.91. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set for a lower open as a rally in bond yields has high-growth tech stocks moving lower. Shares of Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), and Tesla (TSLA) were all 1% lower in pre-market trading. The ten-year Treasury yield is now at 1.5%, and rising inflation and slowing economic growth have investors seeking safe assets. Markets: The S&P 500 traded flat, closing at 4443.11 on Monday, and remains in the middle of the new 4429.97-4465.40 trading range. The index is also slightly above the important 50-day moving average at 4441.75. The trading action was constructive for a potential continuation of the recent uptrend. However, the index is lower in pre-market trading and will potentially open at 4397.75, well below possible support at 4429.97. If so, there will be a new set of technical dynamics if the index cannot rally today. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set for a lower open after closing out last week with a three-day rally. The 10-year Treasury yield was higher by 2% in pre-market trading and at a yield of 1.5%. Increasing economic optimism and potentially higher inflation has the yield at the highest level since June. Meanwhile, the August durable goods orders came in higher than expected, increasing by 1.8%, which was $4.6 billion in new orders. Investors will also be watching events in Washington D.C. as the government is set to shut down Thursday if a new appropriations bill is not passed. Markets: The S&P 500 finished the week strong, closing higher at 4455.48 on Friday. The index is now above the 50-day moving average at 4439.43 and looks set to form a small base in the coming days. We believe a new trading range of 4429.97-4465.40 is developing, which the index should trade inside today. We also feel the base will be short-lived before the index potentially breaks past possible support at 4465.40 and continue the recent uptrend. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS… Read More
