Headline News: U.S. stock futures were sharply lower on concerns the Federal Reserve will begin to slow the current monetary stimulus. The Fed minutes showed that the central bank is preparing to begin a tapering policy in the, possibly, next few months. Meanwhile. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to a 17-month low last week. Initial claims fell by 29,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000 for the week ended August 14th. The report showed another month of improving job growth despite increases in COVID-19 cases. Markets: The S&P 500 sold off heavy on Wednesday and closed at 4400.27 below the support level at 4422.73. The advance/decline line moved below an uptrend line, and the net new highs also move lower. So, the trading changes the dynamic of the index and has halted the recent uptrend. Our indicators have now moved us to a short-term bearish stance, but we see the intermediate and long-term as bullish. New potential support could come in at 4373.00, and possible resistance is now at 4422.73. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio… Read More
Headline News: Equity stock futures are lower on renewed fears about a slowing U.S. economic recovery. Later today, the Federal Reserve’s July minutes will be released, giving insight into how the Fed views the economy. Investors will be looking to see when the central bank could start tapering its monthly bond-buying program. Meanwhile, Target (TGT) beat second-quarter earnings expectations but was lower in pre-market trading, and Lowe’s (LOW) was higher by 4% after also exceeding earnings expectations. The two earnings beats show retailers are still doing well despite an increase in COVIDE-19 cases. Markets: The S&P 500 moved below support at 4422.73 and rallied late to close lower at 4448.08. Volume was higher with 1,901,499,328 shares traded but was not enough to claim the uptrend is over. We feel there was normal profit-taking, and the test and hold of support were constructive. It also appears the buy the dip trade is still in effect, and today buyers could potentially come back in for new purchases. The market will most likely trade sideways today and possible support will remain at 4422.73. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set for a lower open after the release of the U.S. retail sales report fell more than expected. The Commerce Department data showed sales dropped 1.1% last month versus expectation of a 0.6% increase. Most of the decline came from motor vehicles and parts dealers, which fell 3.9%. The report shows consumers cut back on purchases more than expected due to the delta variant. Meanwhile, Walmart (WMT) reported better second-quarter earnings and was flat in pre-market trading, while Home Depot (HD) also beat estimates the stock was lower by 4% to start the day. Markets: The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high of 4479.71 after a late rally on Monday. RSI moved higher, closing at 67.89 us outside of the overbought zone at 70. The advance/decline line also moved to a new high, and the net new high index continued to march higher in support of the rally. We feel a new uptrend is solidly in place, but the index appears to be moving too far too fast. So, a few days of sideways trading or even some potential profit-taking would be constructive. Possible support will remain at 4422.73. We are currently Intermediate-term… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 and the Dow are set to open at new all-time highs as signs of a slowdown in inflation have cooled the Fed tapering talk. So far, 88% of the companies that have reported earnings have beaten estimates, according to Refinitiv. Also, year-over-year corporate earnings growth is expected to be 92.9%. Markets: The S&P 500 closed at another new all-time high of 4460.83, but volume was well below average, with only 1,628,069,504 shares traded. The advance/decline line and net new high lines moved lower while the RSI did move higher. There appears to be a new uptrend, but the volume and the indicators are not confirming the trend yet. If selling should come in today, there is potential support at 4449.49 We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and futures trading could present additional risk based on underlying commodities investments. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures were flat after the release of the new jobless claims report came in lower than the prior week. The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims declined to 375,000 matching the estimates. Also, the number of insured unemployment gains fell to 2.866 million for the last week of July. That is the lowest level since March of 2020. Meanwhile, excluding food and energy, the producer price index rose 1% versus a 0.5% gain estimate. Markets: The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high of 4447.70 while moving out of the current trading range. The advance/decline line moved to a new high, which we see as confirming the new high. Also, The net new high index moved high for the second day showing more stocks are now participating as the index moves higher. We feel this could potentially be the start of the new uptrend we have been looking for since last week. Today’s economic reports show that inflation has, for now, at least paused, which could lead to another possible new high today. Potential resistance could come in at 4449.49, and possible support remains at 4422.73 We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures are higher after the release of a core inflation report came in lower than expected. July’s Consumer Price Index rose 5.4% year over year and only 0.5% for the month. Excluding food and energy, CPI was higher by 0.3% and up by 4.3% year over year. Meanwhile, total mortgage applications volume rose 2.8% for the week, and applications to purchase new homes rose 2%. Markets: The S&P 500 tested traded above resistance at 4440.82 only to selloff and close lower at 4436.75. The index has now formed another trading range of 4422.73-4445.21 and is starting another base. The advance/decline line did not test the old high, and the RSI index was flat. However, a substantial uptick in the net new high index, which also formed a higher low. We feel a continued increase in the net new high index is needed before starting any new potential uptrend. Potential resistance is now at 4445.21, and possible support remains at 4422.73. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative,… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures are flat as investors await the potential passing of the infrastructure bill. The U.S. Senate has set a vote on the $1 trillion bipartisan bill for 11:00 a.m. ET, and then begin debate on $3.5 trillion in additional investments. Meanwhile, COVID-19 cases have averaged 100,000 for three days in a row, up 35% over the prior week, according to a Reuters tally of public health data. Markets: The S&P 500 traded down to support at 4422.73, rallied off that level, and closed lower for the day at 4432.35. The support test came with only 1,714,619,008 shares traded which shows the selling came with little conviction. We still believe a new uptrend will possibly start soon based on the recent trading action. There is now possible resistance at 4402.82, and that could be tested today. The one bearish issue is the Net new high index continues to move lower, showing only a select few stocks are moving higher. Broad participation by more stocks in the S&P 500 will be needed to get the index past potential resistance and start an uptrend. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. Correction- the potential resistance line should show… Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures are lower to start the week as fears over rising Covid-19 cases continue to grow. According to a First Insight survey, shoppers are anxious about visiting stores and are starting to cut back on spending. The survey of 1,038 shoppers found that 56% of consumers are cutting back on spending at retail stores. The trend is threatening to slow the momentum of the recent uptick in the U.S. economic reopening surge. Markets: On Friday, the S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high at 4436.52, and the Advance/Decline line also moved to a new high. However, volume was low with only 1,832,198,912 shares traded, RSI did not make a new high, and the net new high index moved lower. So, we feel a test of potential support at 4422.73 could happen today, and we believe that level will hold. Then, there is a good chance another rally will develop, creating the potential new uptrend we have been looking for to form. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set for a high open after the release of the monthly jobs report came in better than expected. The nonfarm payrolls for July increased by 943,000, beating the expectations of 870,000. The unemployment rate moved lower to 5.4% for July, down from 5.9% in June. The drop in the unemployment rate was impressive, considering the labor force participation rate was at 61.7%, which was the higher level since March of 2020. Also, average hourly earnings increased more than expected, rising 0.4% for the month and higher by 4% year over year. Markets: The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high of 4429.10 and moved out of the current trading range. The trading did come on lower volume, with 1,955,255.296 traded. The internal indicators did not move to a new higher, so the index needs a follow through on higher volume and at least two indicators to move to a new high. If so, there would potentially be a new uptrend in place. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist … Read More
Headline News: U.S. stock futures are higher after the weekly initial jobless claims came in at 385,000, in line with expectations. Also, the four-week moving average was reported at 394,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims were reported at 2.93 million, a substantial drop of 366,000, and the first report was below 3 million since March of 2020. Investors will now wait for the all-important jobs report due out at 8:30 a.m. on Friday. Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 4402.66 and formed a textbook inside day, trading within the previous day’s trading range. This pattern is typically a pause before a continuation of the last day’s trading direction. So, we feel a new all-time high is now possibly coming soon. There is potential resistance at 4422.73, but it will be the fourth test, which makes that level weaker than previous tests. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and futures trading could present additional risk based on underlying… Read More
