Headline News: The S&P 500 futures trade 27 points, or 0.6%, above fair value as the latest geopolitical headlines offer some reprieve for the market. The benchmark index enters the session down 0.9% for the week after a steep decline yesterday. Investors are cautiously optimistic on the Russia-Ukraine situation after Secretary of State Blinken agreed to meet with Russia’s foreign minister next week if there’s no invasion, according to The New York Times. Russia also rebuffed claims that it was planning to invade. The reaction outside the futures market has been muted. The 10-yr yield is unchanged at 1.97%, and the 2-yr yield is up two basis points to 1.49%. Gold futures have edged lower from the $1900 level ($1893.80, -8.20, -0.4%). The U.S. Dollar Index is little changed at 95.81. WTI crude futures, however, are now trading below $90 per barrel ($89.49, -2.26, -2.5%) amid the potential for a nuclear agreement with Iran. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off and closed lower at 4380.26, just above old support at 4364.84. This level is crucial since it represents a higher low that needs to hold today. If not, the low of 4287.44… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set for a flat open despite a surge in the January retail sales report. The Census Bureau reported a 3.8% increase in sales VS an expectation of a rise of only 2.1%. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services, retail sales jumped by 4.8%. Meanwhile, traders continue to monitor the ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Russia claimed more troops were withdrawing, but NATO said the troop build-up was continuing on Wednesday. Markets: The S&P 500 rallied past the 200-day moving average at 4453.16 and closed higher at 4471.07. Up volume was 80% of the up/down, and breadth was also positive, with advancers at 77% of Adv/Dec issues. Also, the low of 4364.84 set yesterday became a higher low and is another sign of potential recovery for the index. Today, a test of possible resistance would confirm the current bullish stance. However, we feel another close above the 200-day at 4454.56 would be constructive. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures trade 71 points, or 1.6%, above fair value in a relief rally on news that Russia has pulled back some troops from its border with Ukraine. Long-term interest rates have edged higher while oil prices have taken a dip. According to CNBC, there are still over 100,000 troops conducting large military drills at the border, so the U.S. is taking possible de-escalation with a “grain of salt.” The market, though, is more optimistic that diplomacy will win out. Other positive-sounding developments include the People’s Bank of China injecting CNY100 billion ($15.7 billion) into the banking system, Intel (INTC 48.21, +0.63, +1.3%) acquiring Tower Semi (TSEM 47.73, +14.60, +44.1%) in a $5.4 billion cash deal, and better-than-expected earnings reports. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off again on Tuesday, closing lower at 4401.67. However, buyers did step in at 4364.84 and rallied the index into the close. So, we now know there is more potential support 4364.84 if the index should see selling today. So far, the S&P 5000 futures are higher by 56 points this morning, with a suggested open of 4447.75. That would bring about a… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set for a lower open on fears of aggressive Federal Reserve monetary policy and tension between Russia and Ukraine. The U.S. government has said Russia could invade at any time and also reaffirmed its pledge to defend “every inch” of NATO territory. Also, traders are pricing in a 56% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 50 basis points in March, according to CME Group’s Fedwatch tool. Markets: The S&P 500 sold off below the 200-day moving average at 4452.06 and closed lower at 4418.64. The selling started when St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard said he wanted a 100 basis point rise in the fed funds rate by July. The volume came in at 2,865,533,440 shares traded, and RSI moved below the 50 line to close at 41.25. So, there was conviction behind the selling. Today, potential resistance remains at the 200-day moving average, and possible support could come in at 4367.73 and then 4452.06. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set for a lower open after the consumer price data came in at the highest level since 1982. CPI came in with a gain of 0.6% last month and a year-over-year gain of 7.5%. A rise in rental prices and a shortage of goods like motor vehicles were a large part of the increase. Investors appear to fear now a 50 basis point hike in interest rates at next month’s Federal Reserve meeting. Markets: The S&P 500 gapped higher on the open and sustained the rally all day to close at 4587.18. The trading action has moved us back to a short-term bullish stance. New potential resistance could now come in at 4595.31 if the buying continues. However, the index is set to open lower, and possible support at 4531.10 and the 200-day moving average at 4449.42 could be in play. The RSI index did move above the 50 in support of the rally, and we feel that could help keep the index above the first possible level of support today. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures traded 45 points, or 1.0%, above fair value as investors stick to the buy-the-dip script. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures have the performance edge and trade 1.2% above fair value amid a downtick in interest rates. A positive showing in Asian and European equity markets might be supporting risk sentiment, as well as an observation from Dr. Fauci that the U.S. is heading out of the “full blown” pandemic phase. More U.S. states are removing or planning to remove mask mandates. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at 4521.54, just under resistance at 4531.10 on Tuesday. The index has now formed the base we have been looking for, and we feel the index will potentially move higher today. RSI closed at 48.13 under the 50 level, but any early buying could see the RSI index move above 50 and possibly bring in more buyers. We don’t see the resistance at the 50-day moving average being tested today, but that could potentially happen later this week. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠… Read More
Headline News: This morning, U.S. equity futures were lower after Pfizer (PFE) and Coty (COTY) reported disappointing fourth-quarter earnings reports. So far, of the 281 companies that have reported earnings, 78.3% have beat analyst expectations, compared to an average of 84% over the last four quarters as reported by Refinitiv data. Investors also appear to be concerned about Thursday’s consumer price data that could spur the Federal Reserve’s more aggressive monetary policy. Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 4483.87 and below resistance at 4495.29 on Monday. The trading came on lower volume with 2,372,428,288 shares traded, and RSI remained under the 50 line closing at 44.74. Today, potential resistance at 4531.10 remains a challenge, and we feel possible support at the 200-day moving average at 4445.75 will hold. If the index can form a base at these levels over the next few days, chances are good the 50-day moving average could be tested. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures trade 15 points, or 0.3%, above fair value in a tentative start to the week. The market continues to assess the implications of tighter monetary policy, higher interest rates and business costs, and a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine. Corporate news has also been a focal point this morning. Notably, Spirit Airlines (SAVE 24.35, +2.62, +12.1%) and Frontier Airlines (ULCC 12.08, -0.31, -2.5%) have agreed to merge in a $6.6 billion cash-and-stock deal, which would create the 5th largest airline in the U.S., according to CNBC. In addition, Peloton (PTON 31.98, +7.38, +30.0%) has jumped 30% after reportedly drawing acquisition interest from Amazon.com (AMZN 3158.00, +5.21, +0.2%) and Nike (NKE 146.00, +0.61, +0.4%). Tyson Foods (TSN 93.35, +5.06, +5.7%) and Hasbro (HAS 96.00, +2.08, +2.2%) both beat top and bottom-line estimates. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 traded up to resistance, down to support, and closed higher at 4500.53 on Friday. We feel the index has, for now, put in a bottom and is trying to work its way higher. Current, potential support at the 200-day moving average of 4444.23 should hold going forward. However, the overhead resistance… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set for a lower open after Meta Platforms (FB) posted poor fourth-quarter earnings and was down 22% in pre-market trading. Nasdaq futures were down 2% on the news while also affecting Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Apple (AAPL) that were all 1% lower. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 23,000 to a seasonally adjusted 238,000 for the week ended Jan 29. Markets: The S&P 500 has rallied the last four days and is now higher by 6.9% off the 1/28/2022 low of 4292.46. The index has also moved past three resistance levels on average volume. So, we feel some selling and testing of the new support levels could occur today. It is rare that an index recovers in a V shape pattern back to the old high, and this recovery appears to be no different. The first possible support line could come in at 4531.10, but we feel the potential support at 4945.12 is the level that should hold if tested today. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management… Read More
Headline News: The U.S. stock futures were lower to start the day as investors await reports on manufacturing and job openings later today. Also, Alphabet (GOOGL) will be reporting earnings after the close of the market today. So far this morning, Exxon Mobil (XOM) reported fourth-quarter profits of $8.87 billion, its largest in seven years. Markets: The S&P 500 moved past the 200-day moving average and resistance at 4945.12 and closed higher at 4515.55. The volume on the day had 82% up volume, which is typically bullish for future trading. So, we got our close above the 200-day, and we feel that level will be potential strong support in the future. The index has, possible resistance at 4531.10 to deal with today, so there is a good chance the days trading could be flat or down. Investors could start looking to “but the dip” at these levels as most of the uncertainty could be priced in now. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves… Read More
