Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower open as oil prices move higher while the market assesses a hefty slate of earnings reports. The major averages are coming off a mostly higher finish, which saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite notch fresh record highs. The gains were modest in nature, and leadership remains concentrated across mega-cap names. Weakness in the broader market pushed the DJIA modestly lower for the session. The market’s weightiest components will come further into focus this week, as five “magnificent seven” names are set to deliver earnings, starting tomorrow after the close. This morning’s batch of earnings also features some heavyweights, with several large tech and other blue-chip stocks in the mix. On the geopolitical front, Reuters reported that a U.S. official says President Trump is not satisfied with Iran’s proposal to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz because it delays nuclear negotiations to a later date. Oil is sharply higher this morning, with WTI crude back above the $100 per barrel mark. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager |) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at another new all-time high of 7,173.91, breaking above the high end of the recent trading… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower open. There is finger-pointing at rising oil prices ($93.99, +1.03, +1.1%) and concerns about the Iran situation. That is part of it, but profit taking after a huge run to record highs in a short amount of time and disappointing price action in several influential stocks following their earnings reports. Another headwind is the 10-yr note yield, which has quietly moved back above 4.30% again, currently at 4.32%. The stock market has seen its share of indications for lower opens, only to regroup quickly and spring back into positive territory on buy-the-dip action. Traders will be watching to see if that trend remains their friend today or decides to turn a cold shoulder and defies the buy-the-dip impulse. Today’s economic calendar features the weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims report at 8:30 a.m. ET followed by the preliminary S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing and Services PMI readings for April at 9:45 a.m. ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager |) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at another all-time high of 7,137.90, but underlying participation metrics weakened. Up volume registered just 54% of total volume, failing to confirm the price advance and signaling a… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher opening this morning as investors assess a hefty batch of earnings reports and monitor developments on the geopolitical front. The major averages finished mostly lower yesterday, snapping a 13-session winning streak for the Nasdaq Composite as tech and mega-cap names took a modest step back after an impressive rally. The broader market, however, fared relatively well, and the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index finished with a modest gain. Oil prices are flattish this morning after a bounce yesterday as the state of U.S.-Iran negotiations remains tenuous, with Vice President JD Vance set to travel to Pakistan for the next round of talks. While the market will still react to geopolitical swings, the recovery of all losses since the start of the Iran war suggests investors are largely looking past the conflict, as a ceasefire seems the most feasible option for all parties involved. Attention now shifts to earnings season, where solid results and steady guidance from several Dow components reporting today are helping maintain growth projections and reinforce the view that earnings momentum is continuing to build. On the macro front, the Senate will hold a confirmation hearing for Fed Chairman Kevin… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower opening this morning after an escalation in geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend. The major averages are coming off their third consecutive week of gains of 3% or wider across the board, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite notching fresh record highs and the Nasdaq Composite recording 13 straight winning sessions. Stocks are poised to take a step back at the open after Iran has put a pause on the next round of peace talks that were set to take place on Wednesday. NBC News reported Iran has vowed retaliation after the U.S. seized an Iranian cargo ship, with President Trump issuing renewed threats against the country’s energy infrastructure. Crude oil is currently up $4.93 (+6.0%) to $87.52 per barrel. Still, the broader undertone remains constructive for stocks as recent decreases to the price of oil have improved the market’s rate cut odds, while mega-cap and tech stocks have continued to provide steady leadership alongside signs of improving market breadth. That said, today’s pullback looks more like a pause following an extended rally rather than the start of a deeper reversal, as investors weigh elevated geopolitical risks… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher opening this morning after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite set fresh record highs for the second consecutive session in yesterday’s action. Though the gains at the index level were more modest than in recent sessions, participation broadened, and investors were quick to buy the dip amid early tech weakness, helping the Nasdaq Composite notch its 12th straight session of higher finishes. Headlines are relatively quiet again today, though the path of least resistance continues to point higher as stocks have yet to face any real selling interest since the major averages finished recovering losses incurred since the start of the war in Iran. The geopolitical backdrop remains constructive, with the U.S. and Iran likely to resume talks over the weekend, while Israel and Lebanon agreed on a 10-day ceasefire. President Trump reiterated his view that the war should be over soon at an event in Las Vegas. Oil prices moved higher yesterday, but WTI crude is currently down $3.21 (-3.5%) to $87.96 per barrel. Corporate news flow is on the lighter side this morning, though the market has another slate of earnings reports to assess. There are no economic data releases… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a slightly higher opening this morning after the major averages steadily improved from opening losses to post solid gains yesterday. Software stocks saw a notable buy-the-dip bid while mega-caps extended their recent gains, with several cyclical sectors posting solid gains. Notably, the strength saw the S&P 500 erase all the losses it incurred since the start of the Iran war. Despite the U.S. and Iran walking away from negotiations over the weekend, yesterday’s action suggested the market is still optimistic that a deal will be reached soon. Bloomberg reported that the U.S. and Iran are in talks to hold another meeting to discuss a longer-term ceasefire. Recent reports suggest that nuclear policy is a point of division between the two nations, with The New York Times reporting that the U.S. proposed a 20-year suspension of all Iranian nuclear activity. At the same time, Iran responded with a proposal to suspend activity for five years. In addition to developments on the geopolitical front, Q1 earnings are ramping up, with several major banks reporting this morning. On the data front, the market will receive the March PPI (Briefing.com consensus 1.2%) and Core PPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%)… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower opening this morning after the U.S. and Iran failed to reach an agreement this weekend, sending oil prices higher and reigniting concerns of a prolonged conflict. President Trump announced via Truth Social that the U.S. Navy will begin a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, and threatened further strikes against Iran. Stocks are coming off a winning week in which the major indices each advanced by 3% or more following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. The announcement resulted in solid gains across the major averages and a sharp retreat in oil prices, with some enthusiasm across mega-cap and the broader AI trade supporting the major averages. Currently, crude oil is up $7.43 (+7.7%) to $104.00 per barrel. While geopolitical developments continue to shape market direction in the near term, investors are gearing up for Q1 earnings season, with the major banks kicking off the action this week. Today’s economic data is limited to the 10:00 ET release of March Existing Home Sales (Briefing.com consensus 4.09 million). (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager |) Markets: The S&P 500 advanced to its upper Bollinger Band, where selling pressure… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a modestly lower opening this morning as investors cautiously monitor the tenuous ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran. In particular, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, which The Wall Street Journal reports has officials concerned that the ceasefire could be upended. Additionally, Iran continues to lament Israeli strikes against the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, arguing that the ceasefire agreement extends to them as well. Crude oil is currently up $4.09 (+4.3%) to $98.50 per barrel after retreating more than 16% yesterday. Outside of the geopolitical realm, the market is set to receive a full slate of economic data this morning, including the February PCE Price Index (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%), the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager |) Markets: The S&P 500 gapped higher at the open and rallied throughout the day, closing at 6,782.81. The index decisively moved above both the 20-day and the 200-day moving averages. That move above the 200-day is significant and could attract additional buyers in the coming weeks. The RSI moved above the 50 level and closed at 58.50, while the Advance-Decline line also moved higher in support of the rally. The one negative… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower opening this morning as tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalate ahead of tonight’s 8:00 p.m. ET deadline to strike a deal. Stocks are coming off a quiet session that offered little in the way of new geopolitical developments, with the major averages notching modest gains as oil prices rose only slightly. Sentiment has shifted this morning, with The Wall Street Journal reporting that negotiators are no longer confident that a deal can be reached before tonight’s deadline, which President Trump has threatened will result in the bombing of Iranian power plants and bridges. Bloomberg reports that the U.S. and Israel have already initiated another wave of strikes against Iran, with Axios reporter Barak Ravid adding, “The U.S. military conducted strikes on military targets on Kharg Island, U.S. official says.” Crude oil is currently up $2.48 (+2.2%) to $114.89 per barrel. Corporate news flow is once again on the lighter side as geopolitical developments take center stage. On the data front, investors will receive February Durable Orders (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%) at 8:30 a.m. ET, and February Consumer Credit (Briefing.com consensus $7.0 billion) at 3:00 p.m. ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager |)… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a modestly higher opening this morning after the major averages finished little changed on Thursday, though the indices captured gains of 3.0% or wider for the week. Last week’s rally was supported by optimism that a ceasefire could be reached between the U.S. and Iran, as well as by commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who noted that inflation expectations remain well anchored in the near term. Developments on the geopolitical and energy fronts continue to drive headlines this morning, with Axios reporting that the U.S., Iran, and mediators are discussing a 45-day ceasefire agreement that could end the war, though sources say the chances of a deal are slim. President Trump said that if a deal is not reached by the Tuesday deadline, Iran will face a new wave of attacks against infrastructure sites. Crude oil is down modestly to around $110 per barrel, though Bloomberg reports that Iran has rejected opening the Strait of Hormuz as a part of any ceasefire deal. Elsewhere, corporate news flow is once again on the lighter side, coming off the long weekend, with Q1 earnings season looming ahead. The 10:00 a.m. ET release of the ISM… Read More
