Headline News: Wall Street is set for a lower open on fears of aggressive Federal Reserve monetary policy and tension between Russia and Ukraine. The U.S. government has said Russia could invade at any time and also reaffirmed its pledge to defend “every inch” of NATO territory. Also, traders are pricing in a 56% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 50 basis points in March, according to CME Group’s Fedwatch tool. Markets: The S&P 500 sold off below the 200-day moving average at 4452.06 and closed lower at 4418.64. The selling started when St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard said he wanted a 100 basis point rise in the fed funds rate by July. The volume came in at 2,865,533,440 shares traded, and RSI moved below the 50 line to close at 41.25. So, there was conviction behind the selling. Today, potential resistance remains at the 200-day moving average, and possible support could come in at 4367.73 and then 4452.06. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set for a lower open after the consumer price data came in at the highest level since 1982. CPI came in with a gain of 0.6% last month and a year-over-year gain of 7.5%. A rise in rental prices and a shortage of goods like motor vehicles were a large part of the increase. Investors appear to fear now a 50 basis point hike in interest rates at next month’s Federal Reserve meeting. Markets: The S&P 500 gapped higher on the open and sustained the rally all day to close at 4587.18. The trading action has moved us back to a short-term bullish stance. New potential resistance could now come in at 4595.31 if the buying continues. However, the index is set to open lower, and possible support at 4531.10 and the 200-day moving average at 4449.42 could be in play. The RSI index did move above the 50 in support of the rally, and we feel that could help keep the index above the first possible level of support today. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures traded 45 points, or 1.0%, above fair value as investors stick to the buy-the-dip script. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures have the performance edge and trade 1.2% above fair value amid a downtick in interest rates. A positive showing in Asian and European equity markets might be supporting risk sentiment, as well as an observation from Dr. Fauci that the U.S. is heading out of the “full blown” pandemic phase. More U.S. states are removing or planning to remove mask mandates. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at 4521.54, just under resistance at 4531.10 on Tuesday. The index has now formed the base we have been looking for, and we feel the index will potentially move higher today. RSI closed at 48.13 under the 50 level, but any early buying could see the RSI index move above 50 and possibly bring in more buyers. We don’t see the resistance at the 50-day moving average being tested today, but that could potentially happen later this week. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠… Read More
Headline News: This morning, U.S. equity futures were lower after Pfizer (PFE) and Coty (COTY) reported disappointing fourth-quarter earnings reports. So far, of the 281 companies that have reported earnings, 78.3% have beat analyst expectations, compared to an average of 84% over the last four quarters as reported by Refinitiv data. Investors also appear to be concerned about Thursday’s consumer price data that could spur the Federal Reserve’s more aggressive monetary policy. Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 4483.87 and below resistance at 4495.29 on Monday. The trading came on lower volume with 2,372,428,288 shares traded, and RSI remained under the 50 line closing at 44.74. Today, potential resistance at 4531.10 remains a challenge, and we feel possible support at the 200-day moving average at 4445.75 will hold. If the index can form a base at these levels over the next few days, chances are good the 50-day moving average could be tested. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk, including… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures trade 15 points, or 0.3%, above fair value in a tentative start to the week. The market continues to assess the implications of tighter monetary policy, higher interest rates and business costs, and a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine. Corporate news has also been a focal point this morning. Notably, Spirit Airlines (SAVE 24.35, +2.62, +12.1%) and Frontier Airlines (ULCC 12.08, -0.31, -2.5%) have agreed to merge in a $6.6 billion cash-and-stock deal, which would create the 5th largest airline in the U.S., according to CNBC. In addition, Peloton (PTON 31.98, +7.38, +30.0%) has jumped 30% after reportedly drawing acquisition interest from Amazon.com (AMZN 3158.00, +5.21, +0.2%) and Nike (NKE 146.00, +0.61, +0.4%). Tyson Foods (TSN 93.35, +5.06, +5.7%) and Hasbro (HAS 96.00, +2.08, +2.2%) both beat top and bottom-line estimates. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 traded up to resistance, down to support, and closed higher at 4500.53 on Friday. We feel the index has, for now, put in a bottom and is trying to work its way higher. Current, potential support at the 200-day moving average of 4444.23 should hold going forward. However, the overhead resistance… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set for a lower open after Meta Platforms (FB) posted poor fourth-quarter earnings and was down 22% in pre-market trading. Nasdaq futures were down 2% on the news while also affecting Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Apple (AAPL) that were all 1% lower. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 23,000 to a seasonally adjusted 238,000 for the week ended Jan 29. Markets: The S&P 500 has rallied the last four days and is now higher by 6.9% off the 1/28/2022 low of 4292.46. The index has also moved past three resistance levels on average volume. So, we feel some selling and testing of the new support levels could occur today. It is rare that an index recovers in a V shape pattern back to the old high, and this recovery appears to be no different. The first possible support line could come in at 4531.10, but we feel the potential support at 4945.12 is the level that should hold if tested today. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management… Read More
Headline News: The U.S. stock futures were lower to start the day as investors await reports on manufacturing and job openings later today. Also, Alphabet (GOOGL) will be reporting earnings after the close of the market today. So far this morning, Exxon Mobil (XOM) reported fourth-quarter profits of $8.87 billion, its largest in seven years. Markets: The S&P 500 moved past the 200-day moving average and resistance at 4945.12 and closed higher at 4515.55. The volume on the day had 82% up volume, which is typically bullish for future trading. So, we got our close above the 200-day, and we feel that level will be potential strong support in the future. The index has, possible resistance at 4531.10 to deal with today, so there is a good chance the days trading could be flat or down. Investors could start looking to “but the dip” at these levels as most of the uncertainty could be priced in now. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set for a lower open as the S&P 500 is braced for its worst monthly performance since March of 2020. Later this week, traders will get fourth-quarter earnings reports from Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta Platforms (FB), and Amazon (AMZN), all of which could potentially be market movers. Also, on Friday, the December nonfarm payroll report will be released, and the White House has already warned the omicron surge could hurt that monthly number. Markets: The S&P 500 rallied off a low of 4292.46 to close higher at 4432.85 on Friday. The index is now just under the 200-day moving average at 4431.95, and RSI moved out of the oversold zone closing higher at 38.07. However, volume came in at only 2,914,800,384 shares traded well below the recent daily average. The S&P 500 is now in a position to potentially rally past and close above the 200-day moving average, which would be a bullish signal and possibly bring in new buyers today. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures trade 37 points, or 0.9%, below fair value as the downside volatility persists in front of key inflation data. Apple (AAPL 163.09, +3.87, +2.4%) is providing offsetting support for the futures market following its better-than-expected earnings report. Specifically, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation in the PCE Price Index (Briefing.com consensus +0.4%) will be included in the Personal Income (Briefing.com consensus +0.5%) and Spending (Briefing.com consensus +0.5%) report for December at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Treasury market is sniffing a hot report, which should support the case for the Fed to be more assertive in tightening policy to rein in inflation. The 2-yr yield is up three basis points to 1.22%, and the 10-yr yield is up three basis points to 1.84%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.1% to 97.37. WTI crude is up 0.7% to $87.18/bbl. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio and Technology) Markets: The S&P 500 briefly tested the 200-day moving average early only to sell off late and close lower at 4287.11. The index has now formed a trading range of 4433.74-4287.11, while the RSI moved further into the oversold zone at 24.32. The last three trading days have… Read More
Headline News: Wall Street is set to rise at the open after the fourth-quarter GDP was reported higher than expected. Gross domestic product increased at a 6.9% annualized pace versus expectations of an increase of 5.6%. Private inventory assessments, strong consumer activity, exports, and business spending grew higher than the previous quarter. Also, consumer activity, which accounts for more than two-thirds of GDP, rose 3.3%, and gross private domestic investment rose an impressive 32%. Markets: The S&P 500 traded in another wide-ranging day and broke through the 200-day moving,4432.73, average briefly before closing at 4349.93. RSI moved further into the oversold zone closing at 25.49, increasing the chances of a potential rally attempt again today. The failure to hold above the 200-day moving average is disappointing, but the index has produced higher lows the last two trading days, and we feel there will be another higher low at the end of trading today. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bearish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk,… Read More
