Headline News: The stock market is on track for a modestly lower start as futures on the S&P 500 trade ten points below fair value. Global markets began the new week on a mixed note, while Japan’s Nikkei was closed for Vernal Equinox. A China Eastern Airlines Boeing (BA 180.80, -12.03, -6.2%) 737-800 crashed in Southern China, with reports indicating that there were no survivors among the 132 passengers and crew members. In Ukraine, the country’s leadership refused to give in to Russia’s demand to surrender in the Southeastern city of Mariupol. On a related note, Turkish officials reportedly believe that Ukraine and Russia are close to agreeing on fundamental issues. Most commodity prices are rising again, with crude oil futures up $4.65, or 4.4%, at $109.35/bbl, while gold is little changed at $1926.00/ozt. Treasuries are on track for a lower start, with the 10-yr yield rising three basis points to 2.18%. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied for the fourth day in a row to close higher at 4463.12. The index blew past resistance at 4416.78 and the 50-day moving average at 4432.72 in the process. The volume was massive, with 4,215,236,352… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures trade eight points, or 0.2%, below fair value as the market digests yesterday’s FOMC decision, higher oil prices ($99.97, +4.93, +5.2%), continued curve-flattening activity in the Treasury market, and the latest Russia-Ukraine news. Chinese stocks extended their rebound rally on Thursday, following U.S. markets higher, after China continued to pledge support for the economy. U.S. futures and European stocks, however, have stayed put today amid news that Russia said reports describing progress in peace talks are “wrong,” according to Bloomberg. That news has helped lift oil prices while the Treasury market continues to show concerns about the Fed potentially hindering economic growth with a policy mistake. Yesterday, the Fed delivered a quarter-point hike, as expected, and signaled six more hikes this year. The 2-yr yield is currently down three basis points to 1.94%, and the 10-yr yield is down five basis points to 2.14%. The 5-yr yield, which is down six basis points, is also trading at 2.14%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.4% to 98.24. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied past resistance at 4287.11 and closed higher at 4357.86. The volume came in with… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures trade 60 points, or 1.4%, above fair value in a continuation of yesterday’s rebound rally ahead of key economic data and the Fed’s policy decision. The latest Russia Ukraine headlines might be fueling the gains, even as Russia continues to launch missiles at Kyiv. Briefly, Ukraine President Zelensky said peace talks were sounding more realistic, and Russia’s foreign minister said some parts of a peace deal model are close to an agreement. Mr. Zelensky, however, acknowledged that the two sides are not close to deal while CNBC reminded viewers that Russia’s words should be taken with a grain of salt. Still, the market appears to be relishing the idea of a ceasefire agreement with talks continuing today and foreign equities sporting big gains. On a related note, President Zelensky is scheduled to speak to the U.S. Congress at 9:00 a.m. ET. As for today’s data, investors will receive Retail Sales for February (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) and Import/Export Prices for February at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by the NAHB Housing Market Index for March (Briefing.com consensus 81) and Business Inventories for January at 10:00 a.m. ET. The FOMC will publish its policy statement and updated… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures have recouped overnight losses and trade eight points, or 0.2%, above fair value as oil prices fall to $95 per barrel ($95.02, -7.99, -7.9%). Stocks in China weren’t so lucky on Tuesday, plagued by COVID-19 lockdowns, de-listing concerns, and the potential for U.S. sanctions if found to be helping Russia’s invasion. China’s Shanghai Composite dropped 5.0% (-7.4% for the week), and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 5.7% (-10.4% for the week). The Chinese lockdowns are being cited as a factor driving oil prices lower due to reduced demand. European stocks, meanwhile, are trying to recover, but the Europe Stoxx 600 is still down 0.9% right now. Back on the home front, the Fed will begin its two-policy meeting today while investors wait for the Producer Price Index for February (Briefing.com consensus 1.0%) at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey for March (Briefing.com consensus 9.0) will be released at the same time, followed by TIC Net Long-Term Transactions for January at 4:00 p.m. ET. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 sold down close to support at 4157.8 and had a small rally to close lower at 4173.11.… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures trade 22 points, or 0.5%, above fair value to start the week as oil prices continue to cool off from last week’s highs. WTI crude futures are currently down 4.9%, or $5.31, to $103.95/bbl. The lower oil prices have been driven by news that Russia and Ukraine are holding another round of ceasefire talks today, that China re-imposed Covid lockdowns and travel restrictions in certain cities, and that India might buy discounted oil from Russia. Regarding Russia-Ukraine, Ukraine President Zelensky said he’s seen a positive shift in talks with Russia (echoing Mr. Putin’s perspective) on Saturday, only for Russia to continue its deadly offensive the following day and ask China for military equipment. White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on the “Face the Nation” show, aired on CBS News, that Russia appears to be planning a chemical or biological weapon attack in Ukraine. Mr. Sullivan reiterated the president’s stance that Moscow will face a “severe price” if that happens. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off below support at 4222.62 and closed lower at 4204.31. We feel most of the selling was to protect cash… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures trade 61 points, or 1.4%, above fair value after reports indicated that Russian President Putin claims that discussions with Ukraine have taken a positive turn. Details have been scant, so the positive-sounding headline first reported by IFX is what the market is basing its optimism on. On a related note, President Biden is scheduled to speak at 10:15 a.m. ET to announce actions that continue to hold Russia accountable for its invasion of Ukraine. Crude futures are higher ($106.87, +0.85, +0.9%) but are off overnight highs, which were driven by news that the U.S. and Iran could not revive a nuclear deal due to Russian qualms and key issues remaining unsolved. The 10-yr yield is unchanged at 2.01% after trading at 1.97% overnight. The 2-yr yield is up one basis point to 1.73% after touching 1.69% overnight. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.1% to 98.41 (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 briefly broke support at 4222.62 but rallied late to close higher at 4259.52. So far this morning, the index is set to open higher, potentially at 4287.00, which is right at the next possible level of… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures trade 45 points, or 1.1%, below fair value after a third round of ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine ended with no real progress. Oil prices are rebounding modestly while Treasuries trade little changed in front of key consumer inflation data. After the talks, Russia confirmed a ban on exports of certain technology, auto, and agricultural products, among other items, until the end of 2022, in retaliation for Western sanctions on Moscow, according to Reuters. On a related note, the UK expanded sanctions against Russian oligarchs on Thursday. Staying in Europe, the ECB recently left its key interest rates unchanged, as expected. The central bank said it’s on pace to conclude net purchases under the APP in the third quarter of this year, and it extended the Eurosystem repo facility for central banks (EUREP) until Jan. 2023 because of the Russia-Ukraine situation. WTI crude futures, which dropped 12% yesterday, are back up 4.2%, or $4.55, to $113.21/bbl. The 2-yr yield is up one basis point to 1.68%, and the 10-yr yield is unchanged at 1.95%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.2% to 98.18 (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures trade 67 points, or 1.6%, above fair value in a buy-the-dip trade, as oil prices dip below $120 per barrel ($119.38, -4.32, -3.5%). Oil is cooling off after rising 35% since Feb. 25, but the negative action has also coincided with a report from Reuters citing positive-sounding rhetoric from Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson. She said that Moscow doesn’t want to overthrow the Kyiv government and that it hopes progress can be made in upcoming talks. The softer stance, however, contrasts with news that Russian forces continue to push towards Kyiv. On a related note, the EU and UK tightened sanctions against Russia on Wednesday. Treasury yields, meanwhile, continue to push higher on inflation and rate-hike expectations after China reported hotter-than-expected CPI data for February. The 2-yr yield is up four basis points to 1.67%, and the 10-yr yield is up four basis points to 1.91%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.5% to 98.61 (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 moved below the important support level of 4222.62 and closed lower at 4170.70. A test of potential support at 4114.65 seemed inevitable, but this morning S&P 500 futures… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures trade nine points, or 0.2%, above fair value as the futures market tries to stabilize from yesterday’s sell-off. The positive bias has formed without there being a decisively negative headline on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Encouragingly, Russian forces have significantly slowed their advance ahead of a key diplomatic meeting on Thursday, according to Reuters, citing a Ukrainian presidential adviser. Commodity markets, to be fair, aren’t behaving like things are getting better. Oil prices remain elevated above $120 per barrel ($121.81, +2.41, +2.0%) amid news that the EU is planning to phase out purchases of Russian energy. Treasury yields are selling off, driving yields higher amid the inflationary pressures. The 2-yr yield is up eight basis points to 1.62%, and the 10-yr yield is up 11 basis points to 1.86%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.3% to 98.98. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off below support at 4222.62 and closed at 4201.09, and the trading came with a massive 3,492,456,192 in volume. The index looks set to at least potentially test the old low of 4114.65 set on 2/24/2022. The best-case scenario now would be for… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures trade roughly in-line with fair value as the market awaits the results of cease-fire talks between Russia and Ukraine. WTI crude futures briefly topped $116 per barrel overnight as Russian forces reportedly captured the southern city of Kherson, but prices have since retraced to $113.14 per barrel (+$2.48, +2.2%). Energy stocks are benefiting from the elevated oil prices in pre-market action. Software stocks Snowflake (SNOW 210.35, -54.34, -20.5%), Veeva Systems (VEEV 206.85, -23.77, -10.3%), and Okta (OKTA 170.03, -12.67, -6.9%), on the other hand, are showing weakness after providing underwhelming-to-disappointing guidance. Their weakness could be restraining interest in other growth stocks. Elsewhere, the Treasury market is behaving relatively quiet following three straight days of huge moves. The 2-yr yield is down two basis points to 1.50%, and the 10-yr yield is unchanged at 1.87%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.2% to 97.57. (Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy) Markets: The S&P 500 traded above resistance at 4385.51 and closed higher at 4389.54. Technically the trading was a breakout, but we would like to see a follow through on higher volume to be sure the buyers are back in charge. The RSI… Read More
