Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 34 points and are trading 0.9% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 100 points and are trading 0.9% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 287 points and are trading 0.9% below fair value. Equity futures are weaker this morning after the big rally in recent sessions. There’s a feeling that the market got ahead of itself with the rebound effort and with thinking that the Fed would soften its approach soon. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its official cash rate by 50 basis points to 3.50%, as expected, and there was some debate about a 75 basis point hike. This move follows on the heels of yesterday’s decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise its cash rate by only 25 basis points to 2.60%. Today’s OPEC+ meeting is a focal point for market participants. The expectation is that OPEC+ will announce a production cut of 1.5 million barrels per day, according to The Wall Street Journal. Oil prices were on a tear in recent sessions but came well off their highs this morning. WTI crude oil futures, at $87.28/bbl a… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 61 points and are trading 1.7% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 228 points and are trading 2.1% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 378 points and are trading 1.3% above fair value. Equity futures are up sharply this morning as market participants look to build on yesterday’s gains, aided by contrarian-minded thinking that stems from an awareness that sentiment readings denote extremely bearish views. There’s also growing excitement in the market about the Fed potentially slowing the pace of its rate hikes and potentially nearing the end of its rate hike cycle. That excitement has been stoked by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which raised its cash rate by only 25 basis points, instead of the 50 basis points expected, to 2.60%. The decision was tied to a recognition that the cash rate has increased substantially in a short period of time and a desire among RBA officials to see how the prior rate increases are affecting the outlook for inflation and economic growth. The US dollar has weakened in the wake of the RBA move. The U.S. Dollar Index is down… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 18 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 25 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 171 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value. Equity futures indicate a higher open to start the new month following Friday’s retreat. There are some mixed macro headlines in play this morning for market participants to digest. The UK’s Finance Minister Kwarteng said the plan to cut taxes for high earners is going to be abandoned. That news provided some support for the pound (GBP/USD +0.3% to 1.1205) and the UK government bond market, which is also contending with S&P revising its outlook to negative on rising fiscal risks. Final September manufacturing PMI readings saw downward revisions from the preliminary estimates for the eurozone, Germany, the UK, and France. Trading was light in Asia, with China closed this week for a holiday. South Korea was also closed today for a holiday. Japan’s finance minister talked about intervening again to support the yen if necessary. OPEC+ is reportedly considering a production cut of over 1 million barrels per day at… Read More
Windsor Wealth is proud to say congratulations to Caroline Reisman for her senior night for Gainesville High Scholl volleyball. The opposing school’s announcer will no longer have to struggle with her last name and call her “Reesman” by mistake.
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 3 points and are trading .08 % above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 9 points and are trading roughly in line with fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 6 points and are trading slightly below fair value. Equity futures are mixed ahead of the latest inflation reading this morning, the August PCE Price Index, out at 8:30 a.m. ET. A slight drop in Treasury yields is providing a modicum of support. The 10-yr note yield is down six basis points to 3.69%, and the 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.15%. Global recession/inflation worries are in play this morning after the Eurozone CPI showed a record 10.0% increase year-over-year in September versus 9.1% in August. The latest reading is solidifying expectations that the ECB will raise rates by 75 basis points at its October meeting. The Reserve Bank of India voted 5-to-1 to raise its repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.90%, as expected. In other central bank news, San Francisco Fed President Daly (non FOMC voter) said that the Fed needs to slow the U.S. economy to bring down inflation… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 26 points and are trading 0.8% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 117 points and are trading 1.0% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 153 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. There’s no follow-through from yesterday’s rally for equity futures this morning. The 2-yr note yield is up ten basis points to 4.20%, and the 10-yr note yield is up 11 basis points to 3.83%. Investor concerns were stoked by British Prime Minister Truss, who defended her economic plan, saying she is willing to make “controversial” decisions to boost growth. This led to renewed selling interest for the UK gilt and British pound. Geopolitical angst has been heightened, too, with Reuters reporting that Russian President Putin will annex 15% of Ukraine (four territories) tomorrow. Reuters also reported that OPEC+ would speak about output reduction at next week’s meeting. Energy complex futures are moving higher this morning. WTI crude oil futures are up 0.2% to $82.29/bbl, and natural gas futures are up 0.3% to $6.98/mmbtu. Market participants will receive the following economic data today: 8:30 ET: Weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 213,000; prior… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 24 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 132 points and are trading 1.2% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 104 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value. Equity futures indicate a lower open but came off their worst levels of the morning following a pullback in Treasury yields from overnight highs. The 10-yr note yield, which reached 4.01% earlier, fell to 3.89% immediately following the Bank of England announcing a plan to conduct temporary purchases of longer-dated gilts “to restore orderly market conditions.” The 10-yr note yield has been inching back towards overnight highs, sitting at 3.95% currently, keeping pressure on investor sentiment. Notwithstanding the BoE announcement, GBP/USD is down 1.4% to 1.0575. On a related note, the IMF came out against the policy moves in the UK, urging them to re-think tax cuts indicating the policy risks increasing inflation. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly (not an FOMC voter) said the Fed wants to bring inflation down “as gently as possible” to avoid a downturn, according to Reuters. Hurricane Ian is expected to hit Florida as a… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 49 points and are trading 1.4% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 182 points and are trading 1.6% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 318 points and are trading 1.2% above fair value. Equity futures are behaving better this morning, leaving the cash market poised for a higher start. Market participants are getting some relief from the moderation in Treasury yields, price action in the currency market, and strength in the mega-cap stocks. The 2-yr note yield is down ten basis points to 4.21%, and the 10-yr note yield is down six basis points to 3.81%. The US Dollar Index is down 0.5% to 113.57 with GBP/USD +1.2% to 1.0811 and EUR/USD +0.4% to 0.9644. There’s been some mixed Fed speak in play for participants to digest this morning. Chicago Fed President Evans (not an FOMC voter), who is retiring from his position in early 2023, acknowledged being a little nervous about the Fed raising rates too much, too fast, according to CNBC. Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC voter) said that a restrictive policy will be needed and for longer to ensure that inflation… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 22 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 67 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 173 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. Equity futures are pointing lower again as a negative mood persists in the market. Rising Treasury yields are keeping pressure on investor sentiment. The 2-yr note yield is up ten basis points to 4.30%, and the 10-yr note yield is up ten basis points to 3.79%. The breakdown in the British pound also weighs on investor sentiment this morning, having reached an all-time low earlier of 1.0382 (GBP/USD -0.6% to 1.0786). There are growing calls for the Bank of England to announce an emergency rate hike, while British Prime Minister Truss could announce additional tax cuts. The moves in the British pound contribute to the strength in the US Dollar Index, up 0.4% to 113.67. In other overseas news, Germany’s September Ifo Business Climate reading came in weaker-than-expected at 84.3 (expected 87.0; last 88.6), and Italy’s MIB (+0.6%) outperformed after yesterday’s general election produced a win for the right-leaning parties, putting… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 53 points and are trading 1.4% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 178 points and are trading 1.6% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 380 points and are trading 1.2% below fair value. Equity futures are decidedly weak as market participants deal with concerns over a hard landing. Aggressive selling in the Treasury market is a major headwind for equities. It’s not just the level yields have risen to, but how quickly they’ve moved up, that’s concerning. The 2-yr note yield is up 10 basis points to 4.23% (but hit 4.26% earlier), and the 10-yr note yield is up eight basis points to 3.77% (but hit 3.82% earlier). Another factor weighing on investor sentiment this morning is Goldman Sachs cutting its year-end price target for the S&P 500 to 3,600 from 4,300. Goldman, though, sees potential downside to 3,150 in the event of a hard landing. Overseas, gilt yields in the U.K. have surged after it was announced that some taxes would be rolled back while spending would increase. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI readings for the eurozone weakened while the U.K.’s Manufacturing PMI… Read More
