Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 15 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 73 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 60 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. Stock futures are higher in front of the market-moving September Employment Situation report at 8:30 ET. Mega cap stocks are higher ahead of the open, supporting the early upside moves. The positive bias also relates to news that the International Longshoremen’s Association and the United States Maritime Alliance have reached a tentative agreement on wages and have agreed to extend the Master Contract until January 15, 2025 to return to the bargaining table to negotiate all other outstanding issues. Treasury yields are slightly higher in front of the jobs report, which could impact the Fed’s thinking about rate cuts in the near term. The 10-yr yield is up two basis points to 3.87% and the 2-yr yield is up two basis points to 3.73%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 tested the support at 5,674.49 for the third time after trading in a tight range all… Read More
Headline News: Stock futures edged lower Thursday as investors looked ahead to September’s payrolls report, which is due later this week, while tensions in the Middle East persisted. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 118 points, or 0.2%. S&P 500 futures fell 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.3%. October trading is off to a rough start as escalating tensions in the Middle East dampen investors’ enthusiasm. Stocks tumbled on Tuesday after Iran launched a missile attack on Israel. Investors are preparing for further uncertainty as Israel starts a ground operation in Lebanon. Growing fears have also driven oil prices higher. U.S. crude futures rose more than 1.5%, bringing their week-to-date advance to 4.6%. According to data released Thursday, weekly jobless claims came in slightly higher than economists polled by Dow Jones forecasted. That offers hints into the health of the labor market as traders gear up for September’s payrolls report, which is due on Friday morning. (Alex Harring CNBC) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off down to support at 5,674.49, and the buyers came in to drive the index back up to close at 5,709.54. That was the second test of the 5,674.49 level, and the buyers may be drying up, so another test of… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 14 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 40 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 118 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The potential for further escalation in the Middle East is still impacting the market after reports indicated that Israel will launch a “significant retaliation” to Iran’s attack, targeting oil production facilities, adding that attacks against nuclear facilities are also on the table, according to Axios. WTI crude oil futures are 3.1% higher than Tuesday’s settlement at $72.00/bbl. Treasury yields are little changed from yesterday. The 10-yr yield is up two basis points to 3.76% and the 2-yr yield is down one basis point to 3.61%. Earlier, the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index dropped 1.3% following last week’s 11.0% jump. Other data today include the September ADP Employment Change estimate at 8:15 ET and the weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30 ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off down to the support level at 5,674.49 but rallied to close at 5,708.75. We feel the… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 15 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 95 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 53 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. Early indications point to a modestly lower open for the major U.S. indices, which starkly contrasts the 8.1% stimulus-driven, fear-of-missing-out rally in China’s Shanghai Composite. The latter will be closed through October 7 for the Golden Week holiday. Today’s advance followed some mixed PMI data and news that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) told commercial banks to start lowering mortgage rates in batches. The PBOC also cut the standing lending facility rates for maturities up to one month by 20 basis points. Notably, there hasn’t been the same carryover impact globally today as there was last week in the wake of China’s stimulus moves. Asian markets were mixed, including a material 4.8% decline for Japan’s Nikkei, as investors worried about the new prime minister supporting the BOJ’s tightening campaign, and European bourses are lower across the board with an FY24 profit warning from The dip here is likely… Read More
Headline News: PCE inflation rose 0.1% in August, which matches the Wall Street forecast. Core PCE climbs 0.1% in August, below 0.2% Wall Street forecast. The 12-month increase in the PCE index slows to a three-and-a-half-year low of 2.2% from 2.5%. The core PCE price increase in the past year edged up to 2.7% from 2.6% in the prior month. Consumer spending increases a modest 0.2% in August. (Jeff Bartash MarketWatch) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied to a new intraday high of 5,767.37, but the sellers came in, and the index closed at a new closing high of 5,745.37. The RSI index did not make a high, showing a possible slowdown in rally participation. So far this morning, the S&P 500 futures are flat after the better-than-expected PCE inflation report. A good inflation number may have already been priced into markets. Potential support is now at 5,733.57; possible resistance could come in at 5,767.37. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial risks. Investing always involves risk,… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down three points and trading in line with fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 30 points and trading 0.1% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down three points and trading fractionally above fair value. Buyer conviction is lacking, but once again, so is seller conviction. Equity futures indications are mixed, steered in part by a wait-and-see mindset. Specifically, participants are waiting to see if this market succumbs to selling interest or once again shows bull market stamina and squeezes higher despite calls it is due for a pullback. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both managed new record highs yesterday, bolstered in part by China’s policy stimulus measures. The PBOC was back at it last night, announcing a 30 basis point cut to its medium-term lending facility, yet the response was more subdued (relatively speaking). China’s Shanghai Composite gained 1.2% on the heels of Tuesday’s 4.2% surge. Sweden’s Riksbank also participated in the stimulus. As expected, its key policy rate was cut by 25 basis points to 3.25%, and the bank hinted at a faster pace of easing in coming months. Lower rates in… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up four points and are trading fractionally above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 30 points. They are trading 0.1% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 46 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. This morning, a wave of stimulus measures announced by China to fuel stronger economic growth is receiving considerable attention. The 7-day reverse repurchase rate will be lowered by 20 basis points to 1.50%, the required reserve ratio will be cut by 50 basis points, the down payment requirement for second-home buyers will be reduced to 15% from 25%, and there will be a CNY800 bln ($113 bln) liquidity support facility for stocks. This news catalyzed a 4.2% gain in the Shanghai Composite and a 4.1% gain in Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index. The carryover effect to foreign markets hasn’t been as pronounced, but China’s stimulus measures have provided some support. Questions remain, though, as to whether these measures will be enough to jumpstart consumer demand and fend off deflationary pressures. The U.S. market isn’t primed to rally at today’s open. Yet, it is showing resilience to selling pressure following yesterday’s… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up nine points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 40 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 20 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Early trading has a positive bias. Pre-open gains in some mega caps have contributed to the upside action and carryover momentum after last week’s solid move higher in the major indices. The 2-year note yield is unchanged from Friday at 3.57%, and the 10-year yield is up two basis points to 3.75%. Elsewhere, Soft Manufacturing and Services PMIs from the eurozone boosted speculation about an October rate cut from the European Central Bank. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a tight pattern and closed lower at 5,702.55 on Friday. There is now overhead resistance, potentially at 5,733.57, and possible support at 5,651.62. It would be healthy for the index to build another multiday base at these levels to consolidate the recent gains. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 13 points and trading 0.2% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 77 points and trading 0.4% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are flat and trading in line with fair value. Contracts tied to the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow industrials have decreased after yesterday’s rate cut-induced rally. Volume is expected to be above average on this “quadruple witching” expiration day, which includes the expiration of index options, index futures, stock options, and single-stock futures. Pre-open losses in some mega-cap names have contributed to the early downside bias. The 10-year yield is down one basis point to 3.73%, and the 2-year yield is up one basis point to 3.61%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied sharply to a new intraday all-time high of 5,733.57, but the sellers came in, and the index closed at a new all-time high of 5,713.64. The volume was only 2,798,258,944 and the up volume only came in at 74% of the total. So, we feel there is a new uptrend, but the trading could be choppy in the future. Also, the index is at… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 95 points and are trading 1.7 % above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 420 points and are trading 2.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 491 points and are trading 1.2% above fair value. Stock futures are in rally mode this morning after the major indices finished slightly lower following yesterday’s more pronounced Fed rate decrease. The early upside bias stems from a belief that the economy is headed for a soft landing scenario and that the Fed will cut rates as needed to ensure that outcome. Pre-open gains in the mega caps and chipmakers have also contributed to the upside bias. Weakening labor market data contributed to recent fears about growth prospects, which led to a sharp sell-off in stocks last month. So, participants will be focused on the 8:30 ET release of weekly jobless claims, which continue to run below recession-like levels. As expected, the Bank of England maintained its bank rate at 5.00%. The 10-year yield is up three basis points to 3.71%, and the 2-year yield is down two basis points to 3.58%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager)… Read More
