Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 21 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 109 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 102 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. Stock futures point to losses at the open as earnings season rolls on. Negative reactions to results and/or guidance have acted as a drag on the broader market, along with ongoing consolidation efforts. Fitch downgraded the United States credit rating to “AA+” from “AAA”, citing an expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, growing government debt, and erosion of governance standards related to peers. Notably, Treasuries have remained resilient and yields have moved lower despite the downgrade. The 2-yr note yield is down four basis points to 4.88% and the 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.02%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in another tight range and closed lower at 4576.73. The index remains in the middle of the current 4527.56-4607.07 trading range. So far this morning, the S&P 500 futures are lower after Fitch downgraded the long-term foreign currency… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 14 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 83 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 47 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Stock futures are negative as investors react to the latest batch of earnings news, which has garnered mixed price action. Some Dow components have offered some support to the market after earnings reports. Meanwhile, losses in some airlines and cruise names have kept the market in check in addition to a sense that the market is overdue for a pullback after the strong start to the year. China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI returned into contraction territory after expanding slightly for the past two months. Elsewhere, final July Manufacturing PMI readings from Germany, France, U.K., Spain, and Italy remained in contraction territory. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed higher at 4588.96 after trading in another tight range. The trading action appears to be the index consolidating gains and setting up to possibly make a run at another new high for the year. However, this week will be… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 6 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 30 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 49 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Stock futures indicate a modestly higher open in front of another busy week of earnings news. There’s some market-moving economic data in the form of the ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indexes and the July Employment Report. Over the weekend, Minneapolis Fed chair Neel Kashkari (FOMC voter) said in an interview he is no longer expecting a US recession, according to CBS News. China’s Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction in the July reading, while Non-Manufacturing PMI decelerated for the fourth consecutive month. Also, China will launch new measures to increase consumption but stopped short of direct consumer support, according to Bloomberg. U.S. economic data today is limited to the July Chicago PMI (prior to 41.5) at 9:45 ET. The 2-yr Treasury note yield is down two basis points to 4.87%, and the 10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 3.96%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P… Read More
Headline News: Inflation showed further signs of cooling in June, according to a gauge released Friday that the Federal Reserve follows closely. The personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy, increased just 0.2% from the previous month, in line with the Dow Jones estimate, the Commerce Department said. So-called core PCE rose 4.1% from a year ago, compared to the estimate of 4.2%. The annual rate was the lowest since September 2021. (Jeff Cox CNBC) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied past resistance at 4580.62 early, but sellers came in, and the index tested support at 4527.56 but rallied slightly to close at 4537.41. The RSI index also moved lower in support of the seller to close at 63.77. However, this morning’s tame core PCE inflation report has buyers back, and the S&P is set to open higher by .67%. The internal indicators are still overbought, so today’s trading could be choppy, and we feel the index will remain in the current trading range of 452.756-4580.62. We are currently Intermediate-term bearish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners &… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 7 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 48 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 52 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The stock market is poised for a slightly lower open in front of the FOMC policy decision at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. Investors are expecting a 25 basis points rate hike today, so focus will be turned to Mr. Powell’s commentary. There has also been a heavy batch of earnings since yesterday’s close that investors are reacting to. The calendar after yesterday’s close was headlined by reports from some of the largest names in Tech, which garnered mixed reactions, while some Dow component blue chips have headlined the calendar before today’s open. The 2-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.87%, and the 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 3.89%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied to a new intraday high for the year at 4580.62, but sellers came in,… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 6 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 60 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 17 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The stock market is poised for higher open after yesterday’s advance saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average register its eleventh straight gain. Earnings season is ramping up, and market participants are eyeing key reports after today’s close from some of the largest names in Tech. Some gains in mega-cap stocks have been supportive of the broader market, along with pleasing results from several blue-chip companies. Separately, Chinese markets had a big day (Hang Seng +4.3%; Shanghai +2.1%) in response to talk of added policy stimulus. The 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.87%, and the 10-yr note yield is up three basis points to 3.89%. The FOMC begins its two-day policy meeting today. A new policy directive will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 7 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 44 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 19 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The stock market is poised for a higher open ahead of a busy week of news that will feature earnings results from some of the largest names in Tech. Also, there will be policy meetings for the Fed, the ECB, and the Bank of Japan. The economic calendar will feature a number of key releases highlighted by the Adv. Q2 GDP report and the June Personal Income and Spending Report will include the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge in the form of the core-PCE Price Index. U.S. economic data today is limited to the preliminary July S&P Global US Manufacturing (prior 46.3) Services (prior 54.4) PMI readings at 9:45 a.m. ET. Europe, meanwhile, saw some weaker-than-expected preliminary readings for July manufacturing and services sector activity show continued weakening. Treasury yields are heading lower. The 2-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.82%, and the 10-yr note yield is down five… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 6 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 90 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 35 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Stock futures are mixed as market participants digest a slate of mixed earnings news and continue to contend with concerns about the market being overbought and due for a pullback. Following their massive gains to start the year, a few of the large names in Tech and Comm. Services are showing sizable declines after their second-quarter earnings reports, which is weighing on the broader market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures, meanwhile, outperform thanks to gains in insurers and health care names. In central bank news, the People’s Bank of China made no changes to its one-year and five-year loan prime rates. Treasury yields are moving higher. The 2-yr note yield is up five basis points to 4.81%, and the 10-yr note yield is up four basis points to 3.78%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at another high for the year at 4565.72, and… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down five points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up three points and are trading fractionally above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 78 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The equity futures market is mixed as price action cools off a bit following last week’s rally and ahead of a big week of Q2 earnings reporting and economic data. That said, there isn’t much in the way of key earnings and economic news out of the U.S. this morning, yet both will crank up starting Tuesday, and the June Retail Sales and Industrial Production reports headlining the economic calendar. In the meantime, some added attention is being paid to some mixed data out of China overnight. That data included a weaker-than-expected 6.3% year-over-year increase in Q2 GDP and a weaker-than-expected 3.1% year-over-year increase in June retail sales that was pitted against a stronger-than-expected 3.8% year-over-year increase in Fixed Asset Investment and an acceleration in industrial production versus the prior month. The mixed economic news out of China has contributed to the lackluster action in the equity futures market and the… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up five points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are flat and are trading roughly in-line fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 150 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. Positive responses to better-than-expected earnings results from a large bank and healthcare company have the DJIA futures at the front of the equity futures pack this morning. The broader market, however, is looking more subdued this morning after a big run already this week. Market participants are likely anticipating some profit-taking activity, but at the same time, sellers aren’t exhibiting much conviction, cognizant that there has been a steady desire to buy on weakness. Accordingly, one could rightfully say there is a bit of a wait-and-see attitude permeating pre-market trading. Separately, Fed Governor Waller (FOMC voter) said his thinking is aligned with two more rate hikes over the next four FOMC meetings this year and sees no reason why the first of those two hikes should not happen at the July FOMC meeting. Today’s economic reports include the June Import-Export Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET and the Preliminary July University of Michigan… Read More
