Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up two points and are trading in line with fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 20 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 95 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. A sharp pre-open gain in shares of a large Communication Services name following strong quarterly results has boosted the broader equity market. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index (SOX) showed a 0.1% drop versus last week’s 6.7% slide. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded down to support at 5,804.34, but buyers came, and the index closed higher at 5,832.92. Also, the ten-year treasury failed at the 4.29% resistance; this morning, the yield is currently at 4.26%. The Q3 GDP report came in under expectations, and the S&P 500 futures slightly changed this morning. We feel the trading could be light today before the release of the PCE inflation report tomorrow, and traders may already be holding off on trades in anticipation of next week’s election. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down five points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down five points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 130 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. Contracts linked to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials are lower as investors digest a heavy slate of earnings. Pre-open losses in the mega cap space have also contributed to the early downside bias. Rising market rates are another factor. The 10-yr yield is up two basis points to 4.30% and the 2-yr yield is up one basis point to 4.15%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a tight range and remained inside the current trading range of 5,871.41-5,762.37. Today, a slew of large-cap companies will announce Q3 earnings, which could be a market mover. However, we feel a move to a new high today is unlikely. Also, the ten-year treasury yield continues to race higher, and it is just under significant potential resistance at 4.29%. Typically, the ten-year yield and the S&P 500 have an inverse relationship, and we feel that… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 15 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 100 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 100 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. Stock futures are higher ahead of a big week of earnings news. Headliners include some of the largest companies in the world, and reports start on Tuesday. Oil prices are sharply lower after Israeli attacks over the weekend were limited to military bases in Iran. WTI crude oil futures are down 6.1% to $67.39/bbl and Brent crude oil futures are down 5.8% to $71.28/bbl. The 10-year note yield is up three basis points to 4.26%, and the 2-year yield is up one basis point to 4.11%. There is no US economic data of note today. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 5,808.12 and just above the support level at 5,804.34. The index is also just above potential support at the 20-day moving average at 5,709.51. We feel the index will hold the 20-day moving average if tested today. There is now a… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 27 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 192 points and are trading 1.0% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 40 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Contracts tied to the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 are higher. A large auto manufacturer’s shares show a sharp pre-open gain after better-than-expected earnings results, which has contributed to the early bias. Futures linked to the Dow industrials are lower due to disappointing earnings from some of its components. Today’s economic calendar features the weekly jobless claims report at 8:30 ET, the preliminary October S&P Global US Manufacturing and Services PMIs at 9:45 ET, and the September New Home Sales report at 10:00 ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off sharply, falling to support at 5,762.37, but buying came in, and the index closed at 5,797.42. If tested, potential support at the 20-day moving averages of 5,783.79 and 5,762.37 should be held today. We feel there will be strong demand at these levels, and the possible resistance at 5,804.34 will be breached today, putting… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 24 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 170 points and are trading 0.8% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 30 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. There’s a positive bias in early trading as investors digest another slate of earnings news. A large semiconductor name shows a big pre-open gain after better-than-expected earnings and guidance. Other semiconductor-related names trade higher in front of the open in sympathy. This morning’s calendar features an ECB policy announcement at 8:15 ET and September Retail Sales data for the US at 8:30 ET. Weekly jobless claims are also released at 8:30 ET. The 10-year yield is up one basis point to 4.03%, and the 2-year yield is up one basis point to 3.95%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed higher at 5,842.47 after testing the support level at 5,804.34, and the RSI index also increased. So, it appears the S&P 500 has formed a new trading range of 5,804.34- 5,871.41. However, the S&P 500 futures are higher by .40% this morning, which could see the… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up four points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 30 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 30 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Contracts tied to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials are flattish as investors digesting more earnings results. Stocks in the semiconductor space continue to struggle after yesterday’s sharp selling. One semiconductor name is down another 4% ahead of the open after its disappointing Q3 earnings report and ugly-looking net bookings number. Another name is losing ground in front of the open after news that China wants to review the company’s products sold in China, according to Reuters. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index dropped 17%, with purchase applications declining by 7% and refinance applications plunging by 26%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off below support at 5,822.13 to close at 5,815.26, and the RSI index also moved lower after testing the 70 level. It appears the selling was normal profit-taking, as the down volume was only 56% of the total volume. We… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up two points and are trading fractionally above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down five points and are trading fractionally below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up eight points and are trading fractionally above fair value. Moves have been limited for contracts linked to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials. Investors are digesting earnings results from large banks, which have garnered positive responses. Oil prices are dropping after reports that Israel will not strike oil or nuclear targets in its retaliation on Iran. WTI crude oil futures are down 4.4% to $70.62/bbl. Today’s economic lineup features the October NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing index at 8:30 ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at 5,859.85, another new all-time high, and the RSI index is also moving higher in support of the rallies. We feel the trading confirms that a new uptrend is in place. The sellers came in at 5,871.41, which will now become potential resistance, and 5,822.13 is possible support. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up six points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 51 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 81 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Stock futures are mixed ahead of a busy week. Pre-open gains in some mega-cap names have contributed to upside moves in futures tied to the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. This week’s lineup includes earnings results and economic data to digest. The Treasury market is closed today for Columbus Day. In other news, China’s Ministry of Finance disappointed investors by not providing enough details at the press briefing on economic stimulus. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: On Friday, the S&P 500 rallied to close at a new all-time high of 5,815.03. The volume was below average, but the up volume was 76% of the total volume. Also, the RSI index did not make a new high and remains negatively divergent. However, we feel a new uptrend has potentially started and could continue for the rest of the week. There is currently possible resistance at 5,822.13, which should be… Read More
Headline News: According to a Labor Department report Thursday, the pace of price increases over the past year took an unexpected step higher in September as policymakers contemplated their next move on interest rates. The consumer price index, a broad gauge measuring the costs of goods and services across the U.S. economy, increased 0.2% monthly, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.4%. Both readings were 0.1 percentage points above the Dow Jones consensus. Excluding food and energy, core prices increased 0.3% monthly, putting the annual rate at 3.3%. Both core readings were also 0.1 percentage points above forecast. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said in the release that much of the inflation increase—more than three-quarters of the move higher—came from a 0.4% jump in food prices and a 0.2% gain in shelter costs. That offset a 1.9% fall in energy prices. (Jeff Cox CNBC) Markets: The S&P broke out of the thirteen-day base and closed at a new all-time high of 5,792.04. However, the volume was low at 2,227,625,984, and the up volume was only 57% of the total. Also, the RSI index did not make a new high, which is troubling, but it did move past a downtrend line.… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 25 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 100 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 71 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. Early trading has a positive bias related to pre-open gains in chipmakers and some mega caps. Treasury yields are moving lower, providing some support to equity futures. The 2-yr yield is down three basis points to 3.97%. Stock futures are also reacting to news that China’s National Development and Reform Commission held a press conference about implementing the stimulus but did not announce additional measures. Earlier, the NFIB Small Business Optimism survey increased to 91.5 in September from 91.2 in August. Oil prices are lower after a solid run of late due to worries about Hurricane Milton. The storm was downgraded to a category 4 and is expected to impact the west coast of Florida as a major hurricane Thursday morning. WTI crude oil futures are 2.2% lower at $75.45/bbl. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off all day and came close to the support… Read More
