Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 21 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 125 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 45 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The stock market is poised for a lower open after yesterday’s retreat. Treasury yields are pulling back from yesterday’s settlement levels, but the recent run-up in yields remains top of mind for market participants. The 2-yr note yield is down four basis points to 5.00% and the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.27%. Oil prices are inching lower this morning. WTI crude oil futures are down 0.6% to $87.01/bbl. Separately, China reported an 8.8% year-over-year decline in exports and a 7.3% year-over-year decline in imports for August, both of which were better than expected. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off sharply below support at the 50-day moving average to close at 4465.48. The index tested and held the 20-day moving average at 4445.47, so buyers might be willing to step in again at that level. The RSI index moved lower… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 11 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 48 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 72 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. Stock futures indicate a lower open, pressured by several airlines warning about rising jet fuel costs, concerns about a slowdown in discretionary spending due to high gas prices, and festering worries about rising interest rates. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index dropped 2.9%, with purchase applications falling 2.0% and refinance applications declining 5.0%. The 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.94%, and the 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.24%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 4496.83 on a volume of 2,105,726,336; the down volume was 73%. The 50-day moving average, 4472.48, is racing higher to provide support, and we feel that level will hold if tested today. Possible resistance will remain at 4527.37. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager,… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 5 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 37 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 1 point and are trading roughly in line with fair value. Equity futures point to a lower open after the holiday weekend. Some mega-cap stocks sport pre-open losses, which is limiting the broader market, along with rising market rates. The 2-yr yield is up four basis points to 4.92%, and the 10-yr note yield is up five basis points to 4.22%. Goldman Sachs lowered its U.S. recession probability to 15% from 20%. The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate at 4.10%, as expected. China’s Caixin Services PMI decelerated again in August, coming in at its lowest level of the year, while Australia’s Services PMI remained in contraction for the second consecutive month. Elsewhere, the eurozone’s final Services PMI readings for August confirmed a renewed contraction in activity. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 tried to rally above resistance at 4527.37 but sold off to close lower at 4515.77, and the RSI index traded… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 15 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 30 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 125 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. Equity futures indicate a higher open. Pre-open gains in a few names following their earnings reports have offered a measure of support to the broader market, along with expected inflows on the first day of a new trading month. The tone of the market could change with the release of the August Employment Situation Report at 8:30 a.m. ET. Other U.S. data today includes: 9:45 ET: Final August S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (prior 47.0) 10:00 ET: July Construction Spending (Briefing.com consensus 0.6%; prior 0.5%) and August ISM Manufacturing Index (Briefing.com consensus 46.7%; prior 46.4%) Manufacturing PMIs from the eurozone and Asia remained in contractionary territory in their final readings for August. The People’s Bank of China will lower the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio to 4.00% from 6.00%, effective September 15. The PBoC also confirmed speculation about rate cuts on some existing mortgages, effective September 25. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director,… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 11 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 18 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 154 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. Equity futures were mixed earlier but trade with a positive disposition now. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures outperform thanks to a big pre-open gain in a software name after it reported better-than-expected earnings and raised guidance, saying that AI is sparking a massive long-term tech buying cycle. Market participants are looking ahead to the Personal Income and Spending report that will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. That report features the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge in the form of the PCE and core-PCE Price Indexes. Weekly jobless claims will also be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. Data released overnight included China’s August Manufacturing PMI, which was better than expected but still below 50.0, and Non-Manufacturing PMI, which decelerated to 51.0 from 51.5 previously. Also, flash CPI data from the eurozone showed total CPI up 5.3% year-over-year, unchanged from July, and core CPI up 5.3% year-over-year, down from 5.5% previously. Treasury… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 3 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 19 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 32 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The stock market is poised for a lower open after yesterday’s gains. Overall, though, there isn’t much conviction on the part of buyers or sellers. The 2-yr note yield is down four basis points to 5.02% and the 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 4.22%. Today’s economic calendar will be highlighted by the August Index Consumer Confidence Index and the July JOLTS – Job Openings Report, which will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET. Other data releases today include the June FHFA Housing Price Index and June S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index at 9:00 a.m. ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a tight range and closed higher at 4433.31, and the RSI index closed higher in support at 48.59. The volume came in below average, with only 1,650,311,424 shares traded, but the up volume was 86%, showing demand was… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 10 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 51 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 100 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. Equity futures have a positive disposition, building on Friday’s gains with positive price action in the mega-cap stocks. Brokerage stocks outperformed in China after officials confirmed reports that the stamp duty on stock trades will be cut in half. On a related note, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo will visit China this week to discuss advanced technology and semiconductor investment restrictions. There is no U.S. economic data of note today; however, the coming week will feature important releases that include the August Consumer Confidence Index, July JOLTS – Job Openings Report, the second estimate for Q2 GDP, July Personal Income and Spending, the August ISM Manufacturing Index, and the August Employment Situation Report. The 2-yr note yield is up three basis points to 5.08%, and the 10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.23%. 1.35% (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded lower most of… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 21 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 166 points and are trading 1.1% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 43 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Equity futures are mixed. A big pre-open gain in a large chipmaker, its blowout earnings results, and guidance have boosted the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 futures. Other chipmakers and megacaps are also trading higher ahead of the open, providing some added support to the broader market. Meanwhile, a loss in a large aerospace & defense company has kept a lid on the Dow futures. Treasury yields are nudging higher. The 2-yr note yield is up five basis points to 4.98%, and the 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 4.21%. In central bank news, the Bank of Korea left its repurchase rate at 3.5%, as expected, while Bank Indonesia left its repurchase rate at 5.75%, also as expected. Turkey’s central bank hiked its key lending rate to 25% from 17.5%. 1.35% (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P sold off sharply by 1.35% and closed… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 21 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 166 points and are trading 1.1% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 43 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Equity futures are mixed. A big pre-open gain in a large chipmaker, its blowout earnings results, and guidance have boosted the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 futures. Other chipmakers and megacaps are also trading higher ahead of the open, providing some added support to the broader market. Meanwhile, a loss in a large aerospace & defense company has kept a lid on the Dow futures. Treasury yields are nudging higher. The 2-yr note yield is up five basis points to 4.98%, and the 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 4.21%. In central bank news, the Bank of Korea left its repurchase rate at 3.5%, as expected, while Bank Indonesia left its repurchase rate at 5.75%, as expected. Turkey’s central bank hiked its key lending rate to 25% from 17.5%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied higher by 1.0% to close higher at… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 25 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 114 points and are trading 0.8% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 109 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. Equity futures indicate a higher open after yesterday’s mega cap-driven gains in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. The positive sentiment this morning has been supported by a pullback in the 10-yr Treasury note yield, which is down three basis points to 4.31%. A number of retailers have reported results and have been greeted with mixed responses. S&P Global downgraded its credit ratings and revised its outlook for multiple banks. This news follows last week’s warning from Fitch Ratings that it might be forced to downgrade the ratings of dozens of additional banks and Moody’s cutting the ratings of ten small to mid-sized U.S. banks a few weeks ago. Separately, concerns about China continue to linger in the background but have not upset market sentiment in the early going. Today’s economic calendar will feature the July Existing Home Sales report (Briefing.com consensus 4.15 million; prior 4.16 million) at 10:00 a.m. ET. (Michael… Read More
