Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 28 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 125 points and are trading 0.8% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 175 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. Stock futures indicate a lower open as participants react to the Israel-Hamas war. The bond market is closed today, but the U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.4% to 106.52, reflecting some flight to safety trading. Concerns about a wider regional conflict are driving a big move in oil prices. WTI crude oil futures are up 4.0% to $86.08/bbl. Market participants are also looking ahead to the September CPI report (Thursday) and the start of the Q3 earnings season later this week. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied sharply off support at 4231.10 to close higher at 4308.50, and the RSI also closed higher in support of the rally at 43.22. The total volume was only 2,474,125,824, and the up volume was only 73% of the total. So, the buying was not as intense as we would have liked to have seen. Markets could be choppy… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 3 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 15 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 39 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Yesterday’s afternoon bounce has carried over this morning. Stock futures have a positive disposition, keying off the notion that the market is still oversold in the short term and due for a bounce. Things could shift, though, after the release of the September employment report at 8:30 a.m. ET. Market participants will be closely watching the reaction of the Treasury market to this morning’s data. The 2-yr note yield is up two basis points currently to 5.03%, and the 10-yr note yield is up three basis points to 4.74%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.1% to 106.28. Separately, WTI crude oil futures are flattish this morning, up 0.1% to $82.35/bbl. Copper futures are up 1.4% to $3.60/lb. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded within the current trading range of 4231-10-4261.07, and both levels were tested yesterday. The RSI index remained flat, while the internal… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 1 point and are trading in line with fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 20 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 31 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The stock market is poised for a mixed open after yesterday’s gains. Treasury yields are down again this morning, but lingering concerns about rates staying higher for longer remain an overhang for the stock market. The 2-yr note yield is down three basis points to 5.03%, and the 10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.72%. WTI crude oil futures have extended their losses this morning, down 1.2% to $83.21/bbl. Looking ahead, the weekly jobless claims report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. Other economic data today includes the August Trade Balance at 8:30 a.m. ET and the weekly natural gas inventories at 10:30 a.m. ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 opened lower below support at 4231.10 but rallied sharply to close higher at 42653.75, and the RSI index moved out of the oversold zone, closing at 35.14. The index also… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 8 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 30 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 52 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. Stock futures indicate a higher open. Treasury yields had been pressing higher overnight, but recent price action has rates declining, which is offering some support to stocks. The 2-yr note yield is down two points from yesterday at 5.13% after hitting 5.18% overnight. The 10-year note yield is down three basis points at 4.77% after hitting 4.88% overnight. There is also a growing sense that the stock market is oversold on a short-term basis and due for a bounce. Following yesterday’s close, the House voted 216-210 in an unprecedented action to remove Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House. House business will be at a standstill until a new Speaker is elected, which is adding to the political uncertainty. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its official cash rate at 5.50%, as expected. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 6.0%, with purchase applications declining 6.0% and refinance applications plunging… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 20 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 82 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 135 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. Stock futures indicate a lower open, pressured again by rising market rates. The 10-yr note yield is up another six basis points to 4.73%, and the 2-yr note yield is up three basis points to 5.12%. Yesterday’s disappointing price action, as evidenced by a 1.1% decline in the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, has also contributed to the negative bias this morning. The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate at 4.10%, as expected, and Cleveland Fed President Mester (non-FOMC voter) said one more rate hike this year may be needed, according to Bloomberg. In other news, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) filed a motion to remove House Speaker Kevin McCarthy as punishment for working with Democrats to fund the government, according to The New York Times. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off down to support at 4261.08 but rallied sharply late in… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 4 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 6 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 50 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Equity futures are mixed and somewhat flat this morning. Rising Treasury yields are still hanging over the market. The 2-yr note yield is up six basis points to 5.06% and the 10-yr note yield is up six basis points to 4.63%. Congress passed a bill to extend government funding through November 17, avoiding a government shutdown, according to The New York Times. Also, federal student loan payments resumed on October 1. In related federal news, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) says he will bring a motion to remove House Speaker Kevin McCarthy from speakership this week as punishment for working with Democrats on government funding, according to CNN. China’s Manufacturing PMI returned to expansion in September, while Caixin Manufacturing and Services readings pointed to a slowing expansion. Japan’s Manufacturing PMI moved deeper into contraction territory. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied strongly to start the day… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 19 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 87 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 139 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. Stocks are poised to continue rebounding at the open, supported by the belief that the market is oversold on a short-term basis and due for a bounce. The drop in market rates has also been supportive. The 10-yr note yield is down five basis points to 4.55%, and the 2-yr note yield is down five basis points to 5.03% The move in Treasuries follows a cooler-than-expected CPI reading for September from France, while the eurozone reading slowed to 4.3% yr/yr from 5.2% in August and the core reading slowed to 4.5% from 5.3%. Participants will receive the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge at 8:30 a.m. ET in the form of the PCE and core-PCE price indices. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied near resistance at 4328.08 and closed higher at 4299.70. The trading came with better than average volume of 2,222,106,880, and the up volume was… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 2 points and are trading slightly below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 37 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 12 points and are trading fractionally above fair value. Stock futures have been mixed this morning. Market participants are waiting to see if there is any follow-through from yesterday’s afternoon rebound effort, but rising long-term rates are still keeping stocks in check. The 10-year note yield is up one basis point to 4.64%. The 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 5.13%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.3% to 106.31. In other news, the People’s Bank of China injected more liquidity and continued fixing the yuan at a higher level. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 posted a small gain, closing at 4274.51 after an impressive rally late in the day. Before the buyers stepped in, the index traded down to 4238.68, just above support at 4231.10, and the RSI index held steady, closing at 30.50. The S&P 500 is still outside the lower Bollinger Band, so there is a chance for… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 16 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 51 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 103 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. This morning’s positive bias in the equity futures market is rooted in an expectation for some rebound action following large losses yesterday and this month. Gains in mega-cap stocks have been supportive of the futures trade, along with a drop in market rates. The 2-yr note yield is down seven basis points to 5.07%, and the 10-yr note yield is down four basis points to 4.51%. Another factor contributing to the positive bias this morning is news that the People’s Bank of China injected liquidity and pledged to step up policy coordination. In other news, the Senate unveiled a stopgap funding bill that would avert a government shutdown until November 17. Also, the writers’ strike against Hollywood studios has now ended after both sides reached an agreement on a deal. The MBA Mortgage Applications Index declined 1.3%, with purchase applications falling 1% and refinance applications dropping 2%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 16 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 57 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 112 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. Stock futures point to losses right out of the gate following yesterday’s modest gains. Relatively soft mega-cap stocks, a missed interest payment by Evergrande, and the specter of rates staying higher for longer are hanging over the broader market. The 2-yr note yield is unchanged at 5.12%, and the 10-yr note yield is down four basis points to 4.50%. Notably, JPMorgan Chase CEO Dimon said that the world may not be ready for interest rates to reach 7%, according to The Times of India. In other developments, bipartisan negotiators are looking to shorten the duration of the near-imminent government shutdown, according to Bloomberg. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager Markets: The S&P 500 rallied to close higher at 4337.44 and is now back inside the lower Bollinger Band. The index also moved back above the support level at 4328.08, and the RSI index turned higher, closing at 35.99. We feel… Read More
