Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 6 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 12 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 52 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. This current disposition puts the cash market on track for a modestly lower start at the opening bell, coming off four consecutive weeks of gains. It won’t be regarded as surprising simply because the extent of gains since late October has fostered a sense that the market is due for a period of consolidation. However, the resilience to selling efforts — and the additional gains that continue to be achieved — have also created some seasonality momentum and a fear of missing out on further gains that have continued to provide support for the market. The corporate news flow coming off the weekend has been limited, but that will change as the week progresses. For now, most of the attention is on retail sales activity during Black Friday, Small Business Saturday, and, now, Cyber Monday. In other developments, Israel and Hamas followed through with hostage/prisoner releases over the weekend, and… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 10 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 58 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 34 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Major indices look poised to begin the day with modest gains, supported by mega-cap leadership. The 10-yr note yield sliding to 4.36%, down six basis points from yesterday, is also providing underlying support along with the seasonality trade ahead of economic releases this morning that include Weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims (8:30 a.m. ET), October Durable Goods Orders (8:30 a.m. ET), and the Final November University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (10:00 a.m. ET). In other news, Sam Altman is returning to OpenAI as CEO, and Israel and Hamas have agreed to a four-day pause in fighting that is part of a hostage release deal. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.1% to 103.64. WTI crude futures are down 2.9% to $75.52/bbl. As a reminder, the U.S. market will be closed Thursday for Thanksgiving Day and will close early at 1:00 p.m. ET on Friday. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 9 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 46 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 59 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Stock futures point to a lower open. This morning’s batch of earnings news from retailers has garnered mixed reactions. Today’s calendar features the October Existing Home Sales report, which will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET, and the Minutes from the October 31- November 1 FOMC meeting, which will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET. The 2-yr Treasury note yield is down one basis point to 4.89%, and the 10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.41%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 continued to surprise after another rally took the index past two important resistance levels on Monday. The index closed higher at 4547.38 with low volume of 2,159,440,640, and the up volume was only 69%. Investors appear to be convinced the Federal Reserve is done raising rates and that corporate earnings will be strong in the fourth quarter. The RSI index finally… Read More
Headline News: U.S. markets are loving the October CPI report. Stock futures surged shortly after the closely watched inflation data, which gauges changes in a broad range of prices for consumer goods and services. The October report showed prices were broadly unchanged last month, while a reading on “core” prices — which strips out volatile food and energy — showed they increased by just 0.2%, less than the 0.3% jump that economists had expected. Treasury yields tumbled on the news, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping below 4.5%. It was down 14.4 basis points in recent trade at 4.475%. Market-based expectations for another interest-rate hike from the Federal Reserve have declined substantially, with interest-rate futures showing expectations for a hike at the Fed’s final policy meeting of 2023 have sunk to virtually zero, down from 14.5% a day earlier, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed higher at 4514.02 and above resistance at 4511.99 on Friday. The index moved out of a three-day base in the process and is now in a position to take out potential resistance at 4521.454. However, the RSI index is on the verge of… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 8 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 3 points and are trading in line with fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 71 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. There is not a lot of conviction again this morning as participants digest a big batch of earnings and the notion that the market is due for a consolidation period following its extended winning streak. The 2-yr note yield is up two basis points to 4.95%, and the 10-yr note yield is up three basis points to 4.55%. On a related note, there is a $24 billion 30-year bond auction today. Results will be released at 1:00 p.m. ET. China’s CPI decreased 0.2% year-over-year in October, and PPI was down 2.6% year-over-year. WTI crude oil futures are up 1.0% to $76.06/bbl. In other news, the TV/Theatrical Negotiating Committee voted unanimously to approve a tentative agreement with the AMPTP, ending the strike. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 tested the 50-day moving average at 434.3.46 and failed on Wednesday. However, the S&P 500 finished higher, which… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 3 points and are trading roughly in line with fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 3 points and are trading in line with fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 37 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Equity futures point to a flattish open for the major indices. There is not a lot of conviction from buyers or sellers this morning as investors wait to see if the rally will continue. The S&P 500 has logged a gain in seven consecutive sessions, while the NASDAQ’s winning streak is running at eight sessions. Treasuries are little changed from yesterday’s settlement levels. The 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 4.58%, and the 2-yr note yield is up two basis points to 4.94%. On a related note, there is a $40 billion 10-yr note auction today. Results will be released at 1:00 p.m. ET. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index jumped 2.5% after a 2.1% decline last week. Purchase applications climbed 3.0%, and refinance applications increased 2.0% from last week. Other economic data today includes: (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P… Read More
. Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 9 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 6 points and are trading fractionally below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 86 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The stock market is poised for a lower open, driven by normal selling activity after big gains last week. The 10-year note yield is down four basis points to 4.62%, and the 2-year note yield is unchanged from yesterday at 4.94%. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) said in an interview that he is not convinced rate hikes are over, according to The Wall Street Journal. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 bps to 4.35%, as expected, and also changed some of the language in its policy statement, fueling speculation that additional hikes are not being planned at this time. China reported a smaller-than-expected $56.53 billion October trade surplus (expected surplus of $82.00 bln; last surplus of $77.71 bln). Imports jumped by a much better than expected 3.0% year-over-year (expected -4.8%), and exports sank -6.4% year-over-year versus an expected -3.3% decline. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 4 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 34 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 1 point and are trading roughly in line with fair value. Stock futures indicate a mostly lower open following big gains of late. Coming into today, the S&P 500 is up 5.2% from last Friday’s low. A pre-open loss in major tech name, in response to its weak fiscal Q1 revenue outlook, has helped keep the broader market in check. Market participants are also waiting on the October Employment Situation report, which will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, which will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET. China’s Caixin Services PMI showed a slight acceleration in activity to 50.4 from 50.2 but was still a bit weaker than expected. The 2-yr note yield is up one basis point to 4.99%, and the 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 4.65%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied for the fourth, up 1.89%, day and closed above the 20-day… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 16 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are down 66 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 111 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. Stock futures indicate a lower open on the heels of solid gains to start the week. Buyers are showing some hesitation in front of the Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement at 8:30 a.m. ET, an impending batch of economic news that includes the October ISM Manufacturing Index, the FOMC decision at 2:00 p.m. ET, and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. The 10-yr note yield is up two basis points to 4.90%, and the 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 5.07%. China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI returned to contraction after two months of expansion. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index declined 2.1% after last week’s 1.0% decline. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied for the second day, closing higher at 4193.80. The RSI index also increased to support the rally, closing at 40.45 after failing to make a lower low. Today’s… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 10 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The NASDAQ 100 futures are up 17 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 59 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. Equity futures indicate a higher open, building on yesterday’s gains following another heavy batch of earnings that was met with mixed reactions. A drop in Treasury yields has contributed to the positive bias. The 2-yr note yield is down three basis points to 5.02%, and the 10-yr note yield is down six basis points to 4.82%. The Bank of Japan announced it will now use the 1.00% level in the 10-year JGB as a reference point rather than a limit while making no headline changes to its policy stance. This approach has been viewed as less hawkish than feared, which has tempered some concerns about an unwinding of carry trades. China’s PMIs were relatively disappointing, while the eurozone’s flash GDP for Q3 showed a slight contraction against expectations. Notable data for the U.S. today includes the Employment Cost Index for Q3 at 8:30 a.m. ET and Consumer Confidence Index at 10:00… Read More
