Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 15 points and trading 0.3% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 75 points and trading 0.4% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 90 points and trading 0.2% above fair value. Contracts tied to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average are higher this morning after yesterday’s afternoon sell-off. Pre-open gains in the mega-cap stocks are contributing to the positive bias ahead of the March employment report’s 8:30 ET release. Treasury yields are little changed ahead of the report. The 10-yr note yield is up two basis points to 4.33%, and the 2-yr note yield is up two basis points to 4.66%. The price action in Treasuries has been influential in driving stock market moves this week, so market participants will be keenly focused on the reaction in Treasuries to this morning’s data. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off sharply late in the day, closing lower at 5,147.21, below its 20-day moving average. The volume was above average, but the down volume was only 74% of the total. Also, the RSI index closed lower at… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 19 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 74 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 162 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. Stock futures indicate a higher open after yesterday’s late afternoon slide. Pre-open gains in mega-cap stocks have boosted the broader market after leading the downside moves yesterday. Treasuries are not moving much this morning. The 10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.22%, and the 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.59%. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index declined 0.7% with purchase applications falling 2% and refinance applications down 0.2% from the prior week. Other data today include the weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30 ET. WTI crude oil futures are down 0.4% to $81.31/bbl; natural gas futures are down 1.9% to $1.76/mmbtu; and copper futures are down 0.4% to $3.99/lbs. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 5,203.58 and is now just above potential support at 5,189.26. The recent selling has been low-volume, so we feel… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 19 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 95 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 77 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. Stock futures are higher as the market attempts to bounce back after yesterday’s declines. Pre-open gains in the mega cap and chipmaker spaces have contributed to the upside bias. Treasury yields are slightly lower, providing added support to equities. The 2-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.60% and the 10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.24%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower for the third day after trading in a very tight range. The trading showed indecision by traders after the index closed at a new all-time high last Thursday. A pullback to potential support at 5,189.26 would be constructive and possibly allow new buyers to enter the markets. Also, the index has moved back within the upper Bollinger band, and the S&P 500 is no longer overbought. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 18 points and trading 0.4% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 106 points and trading 0.6% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 95 points and trading 0.3% below fair value. Stock futures indicate a lower open, reflecting some normal consolidation after another winning week for the major indices. Pre-open losses in mega-cap names have weighed on the broader market this morning. According to the FT, weakness in semiconductor stocks is another factor contributing to the downside bias after news that China blocked the use of certain chips in government computers. Treasury yields are moving higher, acting as another headwind for equities. The 2-year note yield is up three basis points to 4.63%, and the 10-year note yield is up two basis points to 4.24%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 5,234.18 after trading in a tight range all day on Friday. The index achieved another new all-time high on Thursday at 5,253.32 but the RSI index did not also make a new high. So, the trading could be choppy today as traders continue to take… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 21 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 110 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 71 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The current disposition of the futures market implies a down open for the major indices. Losses will be relatively modest in scope, but the buying impulse has been quieted in the wake of major semi company’s AI platform announcement at its GTC Conference and the Bank of Japan’s decision to exit its negative interest rate policy, which had been in place since 2016, and to end its formal yield curve control policy. The BOJ still made it clear, however, that it will stick with an accommodative monetary policy. That’s not to say investors were truly disappointed by these developments, only that they probably have some headline fatigue given all of the talk/previews/speculation ahead of these events. They are also cognizant that the Fed is on deck now, ready to release a new dot plot on Wednesday that may or may not show a change in its median rate-cut projections for… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 38 points and are trading 0.8% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 207 points and are trading 1.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 65 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. A positive bias in early trading has been driven by mega-cap leadership. Separately, market participants are readying themselves for a big week of macro news, highlighted by central bank policy meeting decisions for the Bank of Japan, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Federal Reserve, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of England. The focal point there will be on whether the Bank of Japan votes to exit its negative interest rate policy, which would mark its first rate hike since 2007, and the Fed’s dot plot, which will convey the Fed’s median estimate for the number of rate cuts it expects this year. The March NAHB Housing Market Index at 10:00 a.m. ET is the lone release of note on today’s economic calendar. The 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.71%, and the 10-yr note yield is unchanged at 4.30%. WTI crude futures +0.6% to… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up ten points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 75 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 18 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Contracts linked to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are higher due to pre-open gains in tech stocks. The vibe could shift, though, in response to the latest reading on inflation in the form of the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 ET. Treasury yields are little changed in front of the report. The 2-yr note yield is up two basis points to 4.55%, and the 10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.09%. Other data today includes the NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, which declined to 89.4 in February from 89.9. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded below the 5,111.06 support level for most of the day, but the index rallied and closed at 5,117.94. The trading had a low volume day of 2,185,553,920, and the up volume was only 57% of the total. This morning, the CPI report for… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 15 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 74 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 102 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The market is poised for a lower open due in part to pre-open losses in some mega-cap names. The negative bias is also stemming from carryover downside momentum after Friday’s consolidation-related declines. Treasury yields are little changed. The 10-yr note yield is unchanged at 4.08%, and the 2-yr note yield is up one basis point to 4.50%. There is no US economic data of note today, but Tuesday’s calendar features a potentially market-moving inflation reading in the form of the February Consumer Price Index at 8:30 ET. Separately, WTI crude oil futures are down 0.5% to $77.65/bbl. Natural gas futures are down 0.7% to $1.79/mmbtu. Copper futures are up 0.6% to $3.92/lb. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off all day and closed lower at 5,123.69. The index is now above the potential support at 5,111.06, which we feel will be breached this morning… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 17 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 104 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 100 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. Stock futures indicate a lower open following yesterday’s declines. Pre-open losses in mega-cap stocks have pressured the market, along with a growing sense that stocks are due for some consolidation after the recent runup that brought the major indices to all-time highs. Treasury yields are lower, but that has not translated into support for stocks. The 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.19% and the 2-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.58%. Market participants will receive the February ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 10:00 ET today. Other data include Final February S&P Global U.S. Services PMI (prior 52.5) at 9:45 ET and January Factory Orders (Briefing.com consensus -2.5%; prior 0.2%) at 10:00 ET. In other news, Chinese officials set a 5.0% target for GDP growth and a 3.0% target for CPI growth in 2024 during the first day of the National People’s Congress (Michael Gibbs, Managing… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down eight points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down eight points and are trading fractionally below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 125 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. Contracts linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average are lower, while stock futures for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 are flattish. The market is lacking direction this morning in front of busy week. Fed Chair Powell will deliver his semiannual monetary policy testimony to a House committee on Wednesday and a Senate panel on Thursday. Mr. Powell is expected to reiterate the view that there is no rush to cut rates, echoing comments from other Fed officials recently. There is no US economic data of note today, but this week’s calendar features the February Employment Situation Report on Friday. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 marches on! The index powered higher and closed at another new all-time high of 5,137.08 on Friday. Also, the index moved out of a six-day base, increasing the potential for more upside this week. The RSI index did manage… Read More
