Headline News: Equity futures are pointing to a slightly lower open this morning, following yesterday’s rally in which the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and DJIA all set record intraday and closing highs. The move came as a spike in initial jobless claims solidified the market’s expectations for 25-basis-point rate cuts at the October and December FOMC meetings, in addition to a rate cut in September, which had already been widely anticipated. Macro catalysts this morning are relatively quiet, with the release of the preliminary September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at 10:00 a.m. ET the only notable economic data point. On the trade front, Bloomberg reports that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will hold trade talks in Madrid ahead of a potential summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this year. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed the week at 6,584.29, trading within a tight range. The index remains above its upper Bollinger Band, suggesting continued overbought conditions. Key support is seen at 6,532.65, a level we anticipate will hold if tested in today’s session. Looking ahead, investor attention is turning to Wednesday’s Federal… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a modestly higher opening this morning after a Friday session that saw the major averages finish lower but still capture gains for the week. Much of last week’s action was driven by monetary policy expectations, with the market now fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, following continued softness in the labor market. Price stability will be at the forefront of focus this week, with the market receiving the August PPI report on Wednesday and the August CPI report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, on Thursday. Though a September rate cut is all but locked in, hotter-than-anticipated inflation readings could dampen expectations of further cuts in October and December. Fed Governor Christopher Waller (FOMC voting member) noted last Wednesday that he expects to see a near-term uptick in inflation but expects it to fall back to the 2.0% target within six to seven months. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem (FOMC voting member) cautioned, however, that tariff-driven inflation could be more persistent than current forecasts suggest. The market will be without any color from the Fed to assess this week’s inflation data, as policymakers are in a blackout period… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a modestly higher opening this morning after yesterday’s mixed finish. In what promises to be another high-profile case, President Trump has sought an appeal in the U.S. Supreme Court to a ruling that found the majority of his global tariffs illegal. The president has asked for an expedited schedule, asking the court to pick up the case by September 10 to begin arguments in early November. Headlines are fairly quiet elsewhere, though the market will receive some important economic data today, including the ADP Employment Change at 8:15 a.m. ET, the weekly jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the July ISM Services PMI at 10:00 a.m. ET. Additionally, the market is digesting a small but diverse slate of earnings reports with mixed reactions. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager_) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at 6,448.26 and above the resistance line at 6,427.02. However, the index did not close above the 20-day moving average at 6,429.23. So, the sellers could be around that level during today’s trading. We anticipate that trading today will be muted due to the release of the August Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday morning. We… Read More
Headline News: The stock market is on track for a modestly lower opening after an impressive Friday rally that largely neutralized losses from earlier in the week. Fed Chair Powell’s dovish tone at the Jackson Hole Symposium prompted a rate increase cut expectations on Friday that saw stocks advance, with small-cap stocks performing exceptionally well. Mega-cap tech names had several bumpy sessions last week that weighed down the major averages until Friday’s rally. Mega-cap performance will be closely watched this week as the world’s largest semiconductor company reports its earnings on Wednesday after the close. The market will also receive earnings reports from several larger retailers throughout the week. Today’s economic data is limited to the 10:00 ET release of New Home Sales data. Friday brings about the Personal Income and Outlays report, which includes the PCE Price Index, one of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauges. Headlines are relatively quiet elsewhere, though NBC News reports that Vice President JD Vance said in an interview that he is optimistic the U.S. can broker an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied sharply, closing at 6,466.91 and breaking above… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures are mixed this morning following a muted session yesterday that indicated the market is largely focused on rate cut expectations, with Fed Chair Powell’s Friday speech an eagerly anticipated catalyst of market direction. The probability of a 25-basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting currently stands at 83.1%, according to the CME FedWatch tool, down from last week but still highly likely. On the geopolitical front, President Trump stated via Truth Social that he will set up a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, with a trilateral meeting that includes President Trump to follow. Additionally, Bloomberg reports that Secretary of State Marco Rubio is drafting security agreements for Ukraine, though the market was little moved by developments around these negotiations yesterday. Separately, The Financial Times reports that Ukraine offered to purchase $100 billion in U.S. weapons as part of a deal for security guarantees. Earnings reports are relatively light this week, though a cohort of large retailers kicked off their earnings reports this morning. Retailers fared well yesterday in anticipation of earnings, with the SPDR S&P Retail ETF finishing with a gain of 0.9%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures are modestly higher this morning following yesterday’s record-setting session that saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite notch all-time intraday and closing highs. The stock market responded enthusiastically to the July CPI report, which was mainly in line with expectations. While some goods indexes showed tariff-related inflation in prices, the headline numbers came in as expected, which was better than what was feared. Interest rate cut expectations increased in response, with three cuts before the end of the year now a strong probability. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested in an interview that the Fed should cut rates by 50 basis points at the next meeting, according to Fox Business. Macro headlines are quiet this morning, meaning the market will largely be left to its own devices as it tries to expand upon yesterday’s rally. On the geopolitical front, Politico reports that President Trump will speak with European leaders today ahead of his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied to a new all-time closing high of 6,445.76, with up volume accounting for 81% of total trading volume. Despite the breakout, the RSI failed… Read More
Headline News: A widely followed measure of inflation accelerated slightly less than expected in July on an annual basis as President Donald Trump’s tariffs worked their way through the economy. The consumer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month and 2.7% on a 12-month basis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. That compared to the respective Dow Jones estimates for 0.2% and 2.8%. Excluding food and energy, core CPI increased 0.3% for the month and 3.1% from a year ago, compared to the forecasts for 0.3% and 3%. Federal Reserve officials generally consider core inflation to be a better reading for longer-term trends. (Jeff Cox, CNBC ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 6,373.45, holding within its current trading range of 6,315.61–6,427.02. Following the release of the July CPI report, S&P 500 futures are up 0.50%, suggesting a potential test of resistance at 6,427.02. A close above that level, accompanied by an up-volume day of 80% or more, could signal the start of a new uptrend. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth… Read More
Headline News: A widely followed measure of inflation accelerated slightly less than expected in July on an annual basis as President Donald Trump’s tariffs worked their way through the economy. The consumer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month and 2.7% on a 12-month basis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. That compares to the respective Dow Jones estimates for 0.2% and 2.8%. Excluding food and energy, core CPI increased 0.3% for the month and 3.1% from a year ago, compared to the forecasts for 0.3% and 3%. Federal Reserve officials generally consider core inflation to be a better reading for longer-term trends. (Jeff Cox, CNBC ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 6,373.45, holding within its current trading range of 6,315.61–6,427.02. Following the release of the July CPI report, S&P 500 futures are up 0.50%, suggesting a potential test of resistance at 6,427.02. A close above that level, accompanied by an up-volume day of 80% or more, could signal the start of a new uptrend. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures are modestly higher after yesterday’s trade that saw early gains across the board before some modest but broad-based selling activity saw the major averages finish mixed for the day. The announcement of semiconductor tariff exemptions for companies committed to domestic production provided the early pop, though the retreat was largely devoid of any one catalyst. The market will largely be left to its own devices today, as there are no major headline developments so far and no economic data releases. There is another wave of companies reporting earnings at the moment, and while earnings have certainly had stock-specific impacts this week, they have not moved the broader market. The S&P 500 holds a 1.6% week-to-date gain before today’s open, with yesterday’s early push seeing the index test its all-time closing high of 6,389.77 before retreating. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 attempted to rally but faced selling pressure, ultimately closing lower at 6,340.00. A potential trading range between 6,201.59 and 6,427.02 may be forming, suggesting the index is consolidating its recent gains. Key support levels remain at the 20-day moving average of 6,318.56, followed by 6,201.59. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures are modestly higher this morning after yesterday’s retreat in response to some softened economic data, with a fresh wave of earnings reports underlying most of the morning chatter. While this week’s earnings reports lack the mega-cap luster of the prior week, there are still many important industry leaders on the docket. This morning features earnings from a cohort of household names. There are no other notable developments this morning. On the data side, the MBA Mortgage Applications Index for the week ending August 2 increased 3.1% after decreasing 3.8% the prior week. On the trade front, President Trump’s envoy Steve Wilkoff met with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss an end to the war with Ukraine ahead of possible secondary sanctions on Russia. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at 6,299.19, slipping below the 20-day moving average of 6,311.49. This suggests the index may consolidate and form a new base in the coming days. Notably, the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.22%, breaking below key support at 4.24%. This move indicates that the bond market is pricing in rate cuts sooner than expected, which could provide a bullish backdrop for… Read More
