Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 20 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 55 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 180 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. Contracts linked to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials are lower. Pre-open losses in the mega cap space have contributed to the negative bias. Rising market rates have also limited early buying. The 10-yr yield is at 4.44% and the 2-yr yield is at 4.29%. The vibe in the market may shift following the release of the November Retail Sales report at 8:30 ET. Other data today includes the November Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report at 9:15 ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied to close at 6,074.08 and is now back in the recent trading range. The RSI index also closed higher at 61.62 in support of the rally. So, an eight-day base has formed after the post-election rally that stopped at 6,099.97, and we are hopeful the S&P 500 can achieve another new all-time high before the end of… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up nine points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 35 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up six points and are trading in-line with fair value. Early trading has a mixed vibe ahead of the November Consumer Price Index at 8:30 ET. Treasuries are mixed ahead of the report, which is the last check on inflation ahead of the FOMC meeting next week. The 2-yr yield is unchanged at 4.17%, and the 10-yr yield, which is most sensitive to changes in inflation, is up four basis points to 4.25%. Other data today include the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index, which rose 5.4% following last week’s 2.8% increase. The weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories is released at 10:30 ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 6,034.91 and is now outside the three-day trading range. The new potential support level is the 20-day moving average at 5,995.59, and we feel that level will hold if tested today. However, the internal indicators remain overbought after the impressive post-election rally. So,… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down two points and trading 0.1% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up ten points and trading 0.1% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 20 points and trading 0.1% below fair value. Contracts linked to the S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average are flattish. Market participants lack conviction after the S&P 500 and DJIA logged record highs last week. The US Dollar Index is 0.5% higher at 106.26 after President-elect Trump said he would enact 100% tariffs on countries moving away from the dollar. The 10-year Treasury note yield is two basis points higher at 4.20%, and the 2-year yield is up three basis points from Friday at 4.19%. Today’s economic releases include the November ISM Manufacturing Index and the October Construction Spending report at 10:00 ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high of 6,023.38, but the up volume was only 59% of the total volume. To confirm the breakout to a new high soon, there needs to be an 80% up volume day. Also, the ten-year Treasury note closed at… Read More
Headline News: Revised figures showed that the U.S. grew at a 2.8% annual pace in the third quarter, which indicates that the economy is headed into the crucial holiday shopping season with plenty of momentum. The increase in gross domestic product, the economy’s official scorecard, was unchanged from an initial 2.8% estimate last month. Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast GDP to remain the same. (MarketWatch) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied once again and closed at a new all-time high of 6,021.63, while the RSI index only closed at 66.09. Also, the up volume only came in at 43% of the overall total, showing the buying was not intense. So, the S&P 500 needs a follow-through day of 80% or more up volume to confirm a new uptrend is potentially starting. The ten-year treasury is currently at a yield of 4.25% and well below the support at 4.29%, which could be a bullish factor in today’s trading. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth Planners & Strategist Futures trading is speculative, leveraged, and involves substantial… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 15 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 60 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 38 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Early trading has a mixed disposition. Pre-open gains in the mega-cap space have bolstered contracts linked to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, while futures tied to the Dow industrials are lower. Market participants are digesting news that President-elect Trump said he will impose large tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and increase tariffs on Chinese imports. Buying interest in the 10-year Treasury note, which is most sensitive to changes in inflation, dissipated following the tariff news. The 10-year yield is up one basis point to 4.28%, while the 2-year yield is down three basis points to 4.24%. Retailers that reported earnings since yesterday’s close have garnered mixed responses. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied up to the all-time high at 6,017.31, but the sellers came in swiftly, and the index closed lower at 5,987.37. The RSI index did not test an old high… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 30 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 116 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 295 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value. Early trading has a positive bias ahead of a holiday-shortened week. Markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and close early on Friday, at 1:00 p.m. ET for equities and 2:00 p.m. ET for bonds. The upside skew is in response to a pullback in market rates. The 10-yr yield is down six basis points to 4.35%, and the 2-yr yield is down three basis points to 4.34%. Investors are buying interest in bonds following news that President-elect Trump nominated Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. There’s no US economic data on today’s calendar. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed higher at 5,969.34 and is now back in the old trading range of 5,936.14-6,017.31. So far this morning, the S&P 500 futures are higher by .64%, which could see the old high of 6,017.31 tested today. Also, the ten-year treasury has moved lower after… Read More
Headline News: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday that inflation perked up in October, though pretty much in line with Wall Street expectations. The consumer price index, which measures costs across a spectrum of goods and services, increased 0.2% for the month. That took the 12-month inflation rate to 2.6%, up 0.2 percentage point from September. The readings were both in line with the Dow Jones estimates. The move was even more pronounced, excluding food and energy. Core CPI accelerated 0.3% for the month and was at 3.3% annually, also meeting forecasts. (Jeff Cox CNBC) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 5,983.99 and inside the upper Bollinger Band after briefly trying to rally at the opening of trading. The ten-year treasury yield closed higher at 4.44%, but the yield is lower this morning after the release of the October CPI report. The S&P 500 futures are also positive at 6,023.50 on the CPI news, which could see buying return to the markets. However, the internal indicators are overbought, which should make a test of the old highs difficult today. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down seven points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 31 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 50 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Stock futures are lower after another record finish for the major indices yesterday. Treasuries are falling under selling pressure, sending yields higher and keeping buying in check in equities. The 10-yr yield is up five basis points to 4.36%, and the 2-yr yield is up six basis points to 4.31%. Today’s economic data was limited to the NFIB Small Business Optimism survey, which rose to 93.7 in October from 91.5 in September. Bitcoin continues to benefit from post-election buying, reaching a high above $89,000 earlier. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: After a four-day rally, the S&P 500 stalled at 6,017.31, and the index remained at the tip of the upper Bollinger Band. The RSI index did not make a new high and has yet to move into the overbought zone. Also, there has not been an 80% up-volume day since the election, so the election bump could be… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 15 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 70 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 70 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The stock market is poised to extend yesterday’s election-induced rally. Some names that reported earnings since yesterday’s close have garnered positive responses, contributing to the early bias and pre-open gains in mega caps. Treasury yields are slightly lower ahead of the open and will remain in focus today after the FOMC policy decision at 2:00 ET followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 ET. The committee is expected to cut the target range for the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.50-4.75%. In other central bank news, the Bank of England voted 8-1 to lower its bank rate by 25 bps to 4.75%, which was expected. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied 2.35% to close substantially higher at 5,929.04, and the volume was off the charts, with 4,168,372,992 shares traded. However, the up volume was only 70%, so we will… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 132 points and are trading 2.3% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 345 points and are trading 1.7% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 1,360 points and are trading 3.2% above fair value. The Russell 2000 futures are up 6.1%. Seeing an outsized response following the news that Donald Trump has been declared the victor in the presidential election and that polling results point to the likelihood of a Republican sweep of the House and Senate, which is expected to pave the way for lower tax rates and deregulation. Treasury market participants are pricing in the prospect of stronger growth amid rumblings that they are also pricing in concerns about the budget deficit and national debt, as well as inflation heating up again. The 2-year note yield is up five basis points to 4.26%, and the 10-year note yield is up 15 basis points to 4.44%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 1.9% to 105.37. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied past resistance at 5,762.37 to close sharply higher at 5,782.76, and the RSI index closed above the… Read More
