Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are flat and are trading in line with fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 60 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 19 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Early trading features mixed action. Contracts linked to the NASDAQ 100 are higher, while futures tied to the S&P 500 and Dow industrials are little changed. Participants are in wait-and-see mode ahead of earnings news from some of the world’s largest companies after today’s close. The FOMC decision is at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. The committee is expected to keep the target range for the fed fund rate at 4.25-4.50%, so more attention will be paid to Fed Chair Powell’s tone and remarks. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied for the second day, closing at 6.067.70, above the resistance level of 6,053.58. The index is higher by 1.8% since touching the 20-day moving average on Monday and is now in a position to gain back all the losses from Monday’s selloff. However, the RSI index… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up ten points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 40 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up two points and are trading in-line with fair value. Contracts linked to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials are higher after yesterday’s AI-led slide. Indicated opening gains are slim compared to the scope of yesterday’s losses. Treasury yields are higher after sliding in response to the stock market scare yesterday. The 10-year yield is up three basis points to 4.56%. Political news still dominates headlines after President Trump said he wants tariffs larger than 2.5% on foreign pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and metals, according to Bloomberg. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off sharply, falling below the 20-day moving average. The buyers stepped in, and the index rallied to close at 6,012.28 and is now just under potential resistance at 6,017.31. Also, the down volume was only 52% of the total volume, and the RSI index did not close below the 50 level. We feel the buyers could return today, push the S&P… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down eight points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 18 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 97 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. There is a festering sense that the market is due for a consolidation period, given how far it has come in a short time. The S&P 500, which set a record closing high yesterday, is up 6.0% from its low on Jan. 13 (a span of just eight trading sessions), while the NASDAQ Composite is up 6.5%. Separately, the Bank of Japan raised its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.50%, as expected. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.4% to 107.62 while the 10-yr note yield is unchanged at 4.64% in front of today’s economic data, which will include the preliminary January S&P Global US Manufacturing and Services PMIs at 9:45 a.m. ET, and the December Existing Home Sales and final January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reports at 10:00 a.m. ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed higher for the… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down five points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 100 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 72 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. Contracts tied to the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 are lower after the former reached a fresh record high yesterday. The negative disposition is related to rising Treasury yields. The 10-yr yield is up four basis points to 4.64%, which is still well below its high yield (4.80%) last week. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 gapped higher at the open, traded at a new intraday all-time high at 6,100.81, and closed at 6,086.37. The index has rallied 5.5.% off the 1/13/2025 low of 5,773.31 and is now at the upper Bollinger Band. Also, the RSI index has not moved higher simultaneously and is now negatively divergent. So, we feel the index could pull back to the new support level at 6,053.58 today and hold. We would also like to see the index form a multiday base before potentially closing at a new all-time high.… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 29 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 200 points and are trading 0.9% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 133 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. Earnings season continues to pick up steam after a solid start to the Q4 reporting period. Today’s Economic data includes the MBA Mortgage Applications Index, which rose 0.1% after a 33.3% surge last week. The December Leading Indicators Index is released at 10:00 ET and weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories are released at 10:30 ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied to close higher at 6,049.24 and is now just below the resistance level at 6,053.38. The RSI continues to power higher in support of the new uptrend. We feel the S&P will close above the 6,053.58 level today, possibly build a base for a few days, and then attempt to take out the all-time high of 6,090.27 set on 12/6/2024. Potential support could come in at 5,973.12 at the 50-day moving average if sellers should come into the markets. We are currently Intermediate-term… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 23 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 97 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 194 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. Politics are in play this morning with President Trump back in office following yesterday’s inauguration, which was followed immediately by a slate of executive orders undoing a lot of the Biden administration’s policies and the declaration of a national energy emergency. Notably missing from the orders were decisive tariff actions. The futures market gathered some positive momentum on that understanding, but cooled off some after President Trump later said he is thinking about 25% tariffs for Canada and Mexico starting February 1. Still, the futures market seems enthused by the thought of deregulation and friendlier business/tax policy under the new administration and is reserving some tariff judgment until it sees them in action (and in the data). A relatively calm Treasury market at the moment is helping in this transition. The 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.26%, and the 10-yr note yield is down two basis… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 48 points and are trading 0.8% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 217 points and are trading 1.0% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 310 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value. Contracts linked to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials indicate a higher open on the first session of the year. Solid pre-open gains in mega cap names with no specific catalysts have contributed to the upside bias. A drop in market rates has also supported the positive skew. The 2-yr yield is down three basis points to 4.21% and the 10-yr yield is down five basis points to 4.52%. The MBA Mortgage Applications Index for December 17-31 dropped 21.9%. Other data today include the weekly jobless claims report at 8:30 ET, the final December S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI at 9:45 ET, the November Construction Spending at 10:00 ET, and weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30 ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 5,881.63, and the RSI index also closed lower at 41.10. However, this morning, the S&P… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 50 points and are trading 0.9% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 200 points and are trading 1.0% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 349 points and are trading 0.8% below fair value. Contracts linked to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials are lower after Friday’s tech-led declines. Ongoing selling pressure in the mega-cap space has contributed to the negative bias ahead of the last sessions of the year. Treasury yields are lower. The 2-yr yield is down four basis points to 4.29%, and the 10-yr yield is down four basis points to 4.58%. Today’s economic lineup features the December Chicago PMI at 9:45 a.m. ET and the November Pending Home Sales at 10:00 a.m. ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 tested the 50-day moving average at 5,940.82 and held, but after a rally off that level, the index closed lower at 5,970.84. The RSI index closed lower at 48.57, signaling the potential for more selling today. The 50-day moving average is now a potential support level, and then the 12/20/2024 low of 5,832.30. The… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 20 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 55 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 180 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. Contracts linked to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials are lower. Pre-open losses in the mega cap space have contributed to the negative bias. Rising market rates have also limited early buying. The 10-yr yield is at 4.44% and the 2-yr yield is at 4.29%. The vibe in the market may shift following the release of the November Retail Sales report at 8:30 ET. Other data today includes the November Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report at 9:15 ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied to close at 6,074.08 and is now back in the recent trading range. The RSI index also closed higher at 61.62 in support of the rally. So, an eight-day base has formed after the post-election rally that stopped at 6,099.97, and we are hopeful the S&P 500 can achieve another new all-time high before the end of… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up nine points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 35 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up six points and are trading in-line with fair value. Early trading has a mixed vibe ahead of the November Consumer Price Index at 8:30 ET. Treasuries are mixed ahead of the report, which is the last check on inflation ahead of the FOMC meeting next week. The 2-yr yield is unchanged at 4.17%, and the 10-yr yield, which is most sensitive to changes in inflation, is up four basis points to 4.25%. Other data today include the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index, which rose 5.4% following last week’s 2.8% increase. The weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories is released at 10:30 ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 6,034.91 and is now outside the three-day trading range. The new potential support level is the 20-day moving average at 5,995.59, and we feel that level will hold if tested today. However, the internal indicators remain overbought after the impressive post-election rally. So,… Read More
