Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 163 points and are trading 3.0% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 774 points and are trading 3.9% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 999 points and are trading 2.4% above fair value. Major equity indices are poised for a sharply higher open after a significant development in the trade war with China. The U.S. agreed to cut tariffs on China to 30% from 145% for 90 days (20% fentanyl tariffs plus 10% reciprocal tariffs). China decided to cut its retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. to 10% from 125% for 90 days as trade talks continue. Also, President Trump will sign an executive order today at 9:00 ET that will require the government to adopt a “most favored nation” pricing model for prescription drugs so the “U.S. will pay the same price as the nation that pays the lowest price anywhere in the world.” Early trading features a risk-on bias, and large-cap tech stocks lead the premarket action. Treasuries exhibited an uptick in selling. The 10-year yield is up six basis points to 4.44%, and the 2-year yield is up ten basis points… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 50 points and are trading 0.9% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 240 points and are trading 1.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 302 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value. Contracts tied to the S&P 500, the NASDAQ 100, and the Dow industrials are higher. The market’s focus remains on tariff-related developments after indications that President Trump is set to announce a trade deal framework with the U.K. later today, fueling optimism about a shift in the global trade tensions. Also, the Bank of England lowered its bank rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, as expected. U.S. Treasuries are seeing early selling. The 10-year yield is up three basis points to 4.31%, and the 2-year yield is up three basis points to 3.82%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 tested support at its 50-day moving average of 5,561.49 and rallied to close above it at 5,631.28. Futures are pointing to a 1% gain this morning, suggesting an open above the current resistance level at 5,695.31. A decisive close above that threshold would shift focus… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 20 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 50 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 174 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. Early trading features a positive bias despite negative responses to earnings from a couple of prominent tech names. Optimism around the trade war situation is growing, contributing to the early trading bias. China’s Commerce Ministry said that the “US has recently sent messages to China through relevant parties, hoping to start talks with China. China is currently evaluating this.” The market sentiment may shift following the 8:30 ET release of the April Employment Situation Report. Treasury yields are little changed. The 10-year yield is down one basis point to 4.22%, and the 2-year yield is up one basis point to 3.71%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed above the 50-day moving average, and today’s jobs report is bullish for equities. The S&P 500 should test the resistance level at 5,695.31 at the open, and a close above that level would erase the losses that… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 12 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 63 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 179 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. Contracts linked to the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow industrials are lower after this week’s solid equity market gains. There was some hope for de-escalation in the trade war with China amid indications that China could implement tariff exemptions on medical equipment and certain industrial chemicals, similar to what was offered during President Trump’s first term. The 10-year yield is three basis points lower at 4.28%, and the 2-year yield is unchanged at 3.79%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed higher at 5,525.21, with the RSI index also rising above the key 50 level to finish at 53.03. Technically, the correction phase appears to be over, and a new uptrend may be underway. However, any new tariff announcements still have the potential to significantly impact the market. From a technical standpoint, we expect the S&P 500 to test potential resistance at 5,636.18,… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 75 points and are trading 1.4% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 299 points and are trading 1.6% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 361 points and are trading 0.9% above fair value. Early trading has a positive bias, with contracts tied to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials sharply higher. Tech stocks led the pre-open action after reports indicated that President Trump exempted items like smartphones, semiconductors, and some other electronics from reciprocal tariffs. Commerce Secretary Lutnick later said that the exemptions would be temporary, while President Trump said that he would soon announce a tariff rate for semiconductors. Treasury yields are lower. The 10-year yield is down six basis points to 4.43%, and the 2-year yield is down four basis points to 3.91%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: S&P 500 futures are up 1.60% to start the week, potentially positioning the index to test resistance at 5,488.73. While that level may prove challenging to break today, the index could consolidate just below it for a few more sessions. Volatility likely isn’t behind us, but we… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 28 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 91 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 247 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value. Early trading features a negative bias as investors wait for the Trump administration’s latest tariff measures to be announced tomorrow. There’s also some carryover downside momentum after equities’ weak showing in the first quarter. Treasury yields are sharply lower, reflecting safe-haven buying before the tariff announcements. The 10-yr yield is down nine basis points to 4.16%, and the 2-yr yield is down six basis points to 3.85%. The economic calendar today includes the final March S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI at 9:45 ET, and the March ISM Manufacturing Index, February JOLTS – Job Openings, and February Construction Spending at 10:00 ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 initially dropped to a new low of 5,488.73, but buyers stepped in, driving a strong rebound that pushed the index higher to close at 5,611.85. This rally broke through two key resistance levels, with the RSI also closing… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 65 points and are trading 1.2% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 305 points and are trading 1.6% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 298 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value. Contracts tied to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials are sharply lower. Market participants are waiting on President Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement on April 2 and reacting to some negative tariff-related headlines over the weekend. A Wall Street Journal report indicated that the Trump administration is considering broader tariffs on April 2, including a 20% universal tariff on all imports from all countries. The 10-yr yield is down seven basis points to 4.19%, and the 2-yr yield is down six basis points to 3.85%, reflecting ongoing safe-haven trading due to concerns about US trade policy. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 dropped sharply, closing at 5,580.94—breaking below a key support level at 5,603.10. Selling pressure was intense, with down volume accounting for 87% of total trading. Markets appear unsettled by the new tariffs set to take effect on Wednesday. As of this morning,… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down four points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 33 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 57 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Contracts linked to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials have changed slightly as investors digest the latest headlines about US trade policy. President Trump imposed 25% tariffs on all automobile imports, effective April 3, and announced select auto part tariffs, effective May 3. He also warned, “If the European Union works with Canada to do economic harm to the USA, large scale tariffs, far larger than currently planned, will be placed on them both.” The 10-year yield is five basis points higher at 4.39%, and the 2-year yield is up one basis point to 4.02%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 fell sharply, closing lower at 5,712.20, with the RSI also declining to 45.46, reinforcing the bearish momentum. During the session, the index dipped to support at 5,596.51, where buyers stepped in, sparking a modest rebound. Trading may be light today as… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up two points and trading 0.1% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down one point and trading in line with fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 43 points and trading 0.1% above fair value. There’s not a lot of conviction in early trading, leading to limited movement in contracts linked to major equity indices. The market is still waiting for reciprocal tariffs to be announced on April 2. According to Bloomberg, President Trump said in an interview that he doesn’t want “too many exceptions ” but would be “more lenient than reciprocal. ” Treasury yields are higher. The 10-year yield is up three basis points to 4.34%, and the 2-year yield is up one basis point to 4.01%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 traded within a narrow range, ultimately closing at 5,776.65. Notably, it finished above key resistance at 5,773.31 and the 200-day moving average of 5,754.41. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was also largely unchanged, ending the day at 49.72—still below the neutral 50 level. We expect today’s trading to remain subdued as investors look ahead to Thursday’s GDP… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up ten points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 28 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 50 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Early trading has been muted after yesterday’s robust rally in the major indices. Contracts tied to the NASDAQ 100, S&P 500, and Dow industrials are slightly higher, but moves are limited. Ongoing uncertainty around the tariff announcements on April 2 has dampened investor sentiment. This morning, there’s also some potentially market-moving data to digest. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for March and the New Home Sales report for February are released at 10:00 ET. Treasuries have seen a continuation of yesterday’s selling. The 10-year yield is up three basis points to 4.36%, and the 2-year yield is up one basis point to 4.04%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied sharply, closing at 5,767.57—above the critical 200-day moving average of 5,752.30. Up volume accounted for 77% of total trading volume, indicating strong buying interest. The only minor concern was that the RSI index… Read More
