Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 28 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 91 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 247 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value. Early trading features a negative bias as investors wait for the Trump administration’s latest tariff measures to be announced tomorrow. There’s also some carryover downside momentum after equities’ weak showing in the first quarter. Treasury yields are sharply lower, reflecting safe-haven buying before the tariff announcements. The 10-yr yield is down nine basis points to 4.16%, and the 2-yr yield is down six basis points to 3.85%. The economic calendar today includes the final March S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI at 9:45 ET, and the March ISM Manufacturing Index, February JOLTS – Job Openings, and February Construction Spending at 10:00 ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 initially dropped to a new low of 5,488.73, but buyers stepped in, driving a strong rebound that pushed the index higher to close at 5,611.85. This rally broke through two key resistance levels, with the RSI also closing… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 65 points and are trading 1.2% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 305 points and are trading 1.6% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 298 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value. Contracts tied to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials are sharply lower. Market participants are waiting on President Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement on April 2 and reacting to some negative tariff-related headlines over the weekend. A Wall Street Journal report indicated that the Trump administration is considering broader tariffs on April 2, including a 20% universal tariff on all imports from all countries. The 10-yr yield is down seven basis points to 4.19%, and the 2-yr yield is down six basis points to 3.85%, reflecting ongoing safe-haven trading due to concerns about US trade policy. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 dropped sharply, closing at 5,580.94—breaking below a key support level at 5,603.10. Selling pressure was intense, with down volume accounting for 87% of total trading. Markets appear unsettled by the new tariffs set to take effect on Wednesday. As of this morning,… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down four points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 33 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 57 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Contracts linked to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials have changed slightly as investors digest the latest headlines about US trade policy. President Trump imposed 25% tariffs on all automobile imports, effective April 3, and announced select auto part tariffs, effective May 3. He also warned, “If the European Union works with Canada to do economic harm to the USA, large scale tariffs, far larger than currently planned, will be placed on them both.” The 10-year yield is five basis points higher at 4.39%, and the 2-year yield is up one basis point to 4.02%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 fell sharply, closing lower at 5,712.20, with the RSI also declining to 45.46, reinforcing the bearish momentum. During the session, the index dipped to support at 5,596.51, where buyers stepped in, sparking a modest rebound. Trading may be light today as… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up two points and trading 0.1% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down one point and trading in line with fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 43 points and trading 0.1% above fair value. There’s not a lot of conviction in early trading, leading to limited movement in contracts linked to major equity indices. The market is still waiting for reciprocal tariffs to be announced on April 2. According to Bloomberg, President Trump said in an interview that he doesn’t want “too many exceptions ” but would be “more lenient than reciprocal. ” Treasury yields are higher. The 10-year yield is up three basis points to 4.34%, and the 2-year yield is up one basis point to 4.01%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 traded within a narrow range, ultimately closing at 5,776.65. Notably, it finished above key resistance at 5,773.31 and the 200-day moving average of 5,754.41. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was also largely unchanged, ending the day at 49.72—still below the neutral 50 level. We expect today’s trading to remain subdued as investors look ahead to Thursday’s GDP… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up ten points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 28 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 50 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Early trading has been muted after yesterday’s robust rally in the major indices. Contracts tied to the NASDAQ 100, S&P 500, and Dow industrials are slightly higher, but moves are limited. Ongoing uncertainty around the tariff announcements on April 2 has dampened investor sentiment. This morning, there’s also some potentially market-moving data to digest. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for March and the New Home Sales report for February are released at 10:00 ET. Treasuries have seen a continuation of yesterday’s selling. The 10-year yield is up three basis points to 4.36%, and the 2-year yield is up one basis point to 4.04%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied sharply, closing at 5,767.57—above the critical 200-day moving average of 5,752.30. Up volume accounted for 77% of total trading volume, indicating strong buying interest. The only minor concern was that the RSI index… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 29 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 115 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 160 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. Contracts linked to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials are higher after a selloff on Monday. The market is trying to stabilize a little after recent big losses, but early upside moves are relatively limited. Treasuries are seeing some selling after big gains amid the stock market’s fallout. The 10-yr yield is up two basis points to 4.23%, and the 2-yr yield is up one basis point to 3.91%. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey dropped to 100.7 in February from 102.8. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 experienced a sharp sell-off, dropping 2.70% to close at 5,614.56. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) dipped into oversold territory, ending at 29.92. Additionally, the index closed below the lower Bollinger Band, reinforcing an oversold signal. Trading volume reached 4,323,367,936, but only 77% of it was on the downside, indicating that selling pressure has not… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 70 points and are trading 1.2% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 282 points and are trading 1.4% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 450 points and are trading 1.1% below fair value. Early trading features a negative bias. Contracts tied to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials are lower after Friday’s higher finish in major indices. Treasury yields are also lower, reflecting some safe-haven trading after President Trump hinted at the possibility of a recession in a Fox News interview, saying the US economy will undergo a “period of transition.” The 10-year yield is down eight basis points to 4.24%, and the 2-year yield is down five basis points to 3.95%. There is no US economic data of note today. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 traded within a wide range on Friday before closing higher at 5,770.20. Throughout the session, the index tested key support at 5,651.37 and resistance at 5,783.24, ultimately finishing above the 200-day moving average of 5,733.10. However, as of this morning, S&P 500 futures are down 1.45% amid ongoing tariff… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 32 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 139 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 140 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. Contracts linked to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials are lower. The negative bias is a continuation of yesterday’s retreat. Buying has also continued in the Treasury market. The 10-yr yield is down three basis points to 4.15%. Focus remains on the tariff front after President Trump imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. Canada announced retaliatory actions, including 25% tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods immediately. Mexico hasn’t announced actions yet, but previously vowed retaliation. Tariffs on Chinese imports increased to 20% from 10%, and China also announced retaliatory actions, including additional 10% and 15% tariffs on US agricultural products beginning March 10. Market participants are now waiting for President Trump’s State of the Union address today at 9:00 p.m. ET. There’s also some market-moving data later in the week, capped off by the February Employment Situation report on Friday. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director,… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 41 points and trading 0.7% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 188 points and are trading 0.9% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 132 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. There is still plenty of growth angst amid tariff talks and efforts to cut government spending, yet the early focus appears to be the positive price action in equities. However, today’s key for market sentiment won’t be how the market opens but how it closes. Soon enough, attention will shift to the slate of economic data today, which includes the second estimate for Q4 GDP at 8:30 a.m. ET, the weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims report at 8:30 a.m. ET, the January Durable Goods Orders report at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the January Pending Home Sales report at 10:00 a.m. ET. The 2-year note yield is up three basis points to 4.10%, and the 10-year note yield is up five basis points to 4.30%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.2% to 106.59. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied to the 50-day moving… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 12 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 45 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 128 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. Contracts tied to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials are lower, reflecting some regular profit-taking interest after another record high for the S&P 500 yesterday. Since yesterday’s close, some earnings results garnered negative responses, contributing to the downside bias. Treasury yields are slightly lower, but that hasn’t translated into support for equities. The 10-yr yield is down four basis points to 4.50%, and the 2-yr yield is down two basis points to 4.25%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high of 6,144.15. However, it’s worth noting that up volume accounted for only 43% of the total trading volume, indicating a lack of strong buying conviction. Additionally, the RSI index failed to reach a new high and continues to show negative divergence, which could signal waning momentum. Key support remains at 6,128.18, and we maintain the view that if… Read More
