Headline News: Equity futures point to a mixed open this morning as investors assess another sizable batch of earnings and monitor geopolitical developments in the Middle East. The major averages are coming off a mostly lower finish in which select high-profile tech names finally met some resistance after a record-setting run. The S&P 500 notched a record intraday high before finishing lower for the day, the DJIA extended its record run, and the Nasdaq underperformed amid some volatility in semiconductor stocks. Similarly, futures tied to the Nasdaq are lower this morning after the latest batch of earnings reports, with several key memory names moving lower on underwhelming guidance despite beating earnings estimates. On the macro front, oil prices are stable this morning, with NBC News reporting the U.S. and Iran are close to reaching a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though Iran has insisted on some limited control of the waterway. Additionally, Financial Times reports Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will keep his style of limited communication but is open to a September rate hike if inflation readings come in hot. The market will receive preliminary Q2 productivity (Briefing.com consensus 0.8%) and unit labor cost (Briefing.com consensus 1.7%) readings… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher open this morning as strong earnings and easing oil prices continue to lift the market. Stocks are coming off a winning session that saw the major averages each advance by more than 1%, with the S&P 500 closing above the 7,600 mark for the first time since June 2 while the DJIA notched a record closing high. Mega-cap tech names, several of which reported strong earnings last week, were a key driver of the index-level advance. On the macro front, oil is retreating again today after initially moving higher, with reports from Qatar that a potential peace deal between the U.S. and Iran has been drafted acting as a catalyst. Additionally, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC, “There is a chance” the U.S. might have a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz today or tomorrow. Today will be lighter when it comes to economic data, with the 8:30 a.m. release of the June trade balance the most notable release. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied sharply throughout the session, closing at 7,600.50 and breaking above the upper end of its recent trading… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a mostly higher open to start the week, with some enthusiasm coming from a slide in oil prices after President Trump called off planned strikes against Iran. NBC News reports that President Trump said new talks will begin with Iran today, and crude oil is currently down $5.28 (-6.2%) to $79.39 per barrel. Stocks are coming off a mostly higher finish to a volatile week following strong earnings from a handful of Mag 7 names, which also helped reignite some enthusiasm around the AI-buildout cycle. This week will also see a sizable chunk of S&P 500 companies report earnings, including several large chipmaker names along with a large Communication Services company. On the data front, investors will receive the final S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI for July at 9:45 a.m. ET, followed by June Construction Spending and the July ISM Manufacturing Index at 10:00 a.m. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied to close at 7,489.72, and more importantly, finished above the 20-day moving average at 7,481.15. The index is now trading within a well-defined range between 7,294.18 and 7,516.75, and we expect it could remain within that… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a higher open this morning as semiconductor stocks attract some buying after last week’s selloff, while easing oil prices provide support for the broader market. Stocks are coming off a tough week in which climbing oil and intense selling across semiconductor stocks and other mega-cap tech names pushed the major averages to a firmly lower finish. Large chipmakers are moving higher this morning, while memory names lead the advance after Bloomberg reported that Kimi K3, the latest model from Chinese company Moonshot AI that added to last week’s semiconductor volatility, requires a large amount of memory to operate. On a related note, Axios reported that the Trump administration could ban Chinese AI models. Meanwhile, the market still largely expects negotiations to prevail between the U.S. and Iran despite the two sides exchanging fire. Crude oil is currently down $1.43 (-1.8%) to $80.35 per barrel. Investors received just a couple of earnings reports this morning, though this week will see a considerable ramp-up in the number of companies reporting. On the data front, the 10:00 a.m. ET release of the June leading Economic Index (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%) kicks off a light week of notable releases.… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a mostly lower opening this morning as semiconductor stocks face an extension of yesterday’s pressure. The semiconductor group lagged yesterday, though broad strength and solid gains across other meg-cap tech names helped the major averages finish higher. This morning’s pressure follows an 11% drop in Korean-listed shares of memory powerhouse SK Hynix, with the stock’s ADR debut on the Nasdaq last Friday contributing to recent choppiness across the group. Elsewhere, oil prices are little changed this morning, though Bloomberg reports the U.S. hit a sanctioned Iranian oil tanker as traffic in the Strait of Hormuz dwindles. Investors have a decent batch of earnings reports to assess this morning as Q2 earnings season begins to broaden beyond the financials sector. Additionally, today’s economic data slate is also relatively full and features the June Retail Sales report (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) at 8:30 a.m. ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed little changed at 7,572.40, finishing just below the current potential resistance level of 7,579.97. During the session, the index tested the 10-day moving average, where buyers once again stepped in to support the uptrend. The RSI index and the… Read More
Headline News: Wholesale prices unexpectedly fell in June as sliding energy prices helped brighten the inflation picture, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. The producer price index posted a seasonally adjusted 0.3% decline for the month, compared to the Dow Jones consensus estimate for the final-demand cost measure to be unchanged. On an annual basis, the index indicated a 5.5% inflation rate. Excluding food and energy, core PPI rose 0.2%, against the outlook for a 0.3% increase. As with consumer prices, the index benefited from easing energy costs, particularly as oil fell due to receding tensions between the U.S. and Iran. (Jeff Cox, CNBC) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in another tight range, closing at 7,543.59 while holding above its 10-day moving average. Technically, the index appears poised for a potential breakout above the key resistance level at 7,557.92. If that level is surpassed, the all-time high at 7,620.90 could be tested later this week. Inflation data continued to support the bullish case for equities, as the June Producer Price Index (PPI) came in better than expected, reinforcing yesterday’s softer Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Those reports suggest inflationary pressures may continue to ease, which is favorable… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a lower open this morning as semiconductor stocks face pressure in the premarket while lingering hostilities between the U.S. and Iran send oil prices higher. Both semiconductors and oil contributed to considerable choppiness last week, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite notching solid weekly gains, while the DJIA faced a modest loss. Crude oil is currently up $2.43 (+3.4%) to $73.84 per barrel after the U.S. and Iran traded strikes over the weekend. Iran maintains that the Strait of Hormuz is closed (and attacked a commercial ship traveling the waterway), though Bloomberg reports that a southern route remains open. Meanwhile, semiconductor stocks are under pressure after shares of a large semiconductor moved sharply lower following a successful ADS debut on the NASDAQ on Friday. There are no earnings on the calendar today, but tomorrow will effectively kick off the Q2 earnings season with a slate of major banking names. Similarly, there are no economic data releases of note today, though tomorrow will feature the June CPI (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%). (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied for a second consecutive session, closing at 7,575.39, just below the… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a mixed opening this morning, with the stock market poised to continue yesterday’s trends. While oil prices are only modestly higher after yesterday’s spike, the U.S. and Iran continue to exchange fire, with Bloomberg reporting that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains at a near-standstill. The re-escalation in tensions put broad pressure on the market yesterday and sent many oil- and rate-sensitive stocks sharply lower. The S&P 500 and DJIA retreated, though the Nasdaq Composite logged a modestly higher finish due to a solid rotation back into semiconductor stocks. So far, chipmakers are seeing continued momentum, with Nasdaq futures firmly higher as a result. On the data front, the market is set to receive weekly initial jobless claims data at 8:30 a.m. ET (Briefing.com consensus 220,000) followed by June existing home sales (Briefing.com consensus 4.20 million) at 10:00 a.m. ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 sold off during yesterday’s session, testing the 50-day moving average at 7,417.71 before buyers stepped in and sparked a late-day rally, helping the index close at 7,482.71. The successful test of the 50-day moving average is a positive technical development and suggests buyers… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a sharply lower opening this morning as an escalation in hostilities between the U.S. and Iran sends oil prices surging and puts broad pressure on stocks. Oil-driven volatility played a role in yesterday’s lower finish for the major averages, with President Trump revoking the waiver that allowed Iran to sell oil after Iran struck several commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Tensions escalated further overnight, with President Trump declaring the ceasefire over and Axios reporting that fresh U.S. strikes on Iran were four or five times bigger in scope than previous strikes. WTI crude oil is currently up $3.60 (+5.1%) to $74.04 per barrel. Elsewhere, semiconductor stocks are on track for another lower opening, with concentrated pressure across the group weighing on the major averages yesterday. Memory names are among the worst performers in the premarket. Today will be lighter on the data side, though the market will receive the minutes for the June FOMC meeting at 2:00 p.m. ET, the first with new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the helm. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded sideways in a tight range, closing slightly lower at… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures point to a mostly lower open this morning as chipmaker stocks are on pace to give back much of yesterday’s gains. Strength across the group and support from other mega-cap tech names helped the major averages finish higher yesterday after semiconductor stocks retreated in the prior two sessions. The early weakness across semiconductor stocks is being somewhat attributed to an underwhelming reaction to Samsung Electronics’ earnings report overnight, which weighed heavily on South Korea’s Kospi. Futures tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite are under particular pressure this morning, though the DJIA is still on track for a higher opening, suggesting some rotational action could be in play. Headlines are relatively quiet elsewhere, with corporate news flow on the lighter side as the market drifts towards the next earnings season, while not much has changed surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict. Investors will receive the May Trade Balance at 8:30 a.m. ET (Briefing.com consensus -$78.8 billion), the only economic data release of note. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 closed higher at 7,537.43, breaking above the downtrend line. However, the buying demand was only modest, with up volume accounting for just 55% of… Read More
