Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up seven points and are trading 0.1% above fair value; the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 28 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down four points and are trading fractionally below fair value. There is little conviction in the early going as market participants await details from the U.S.-China trade talks, which have been extended into today. President Trump said he has been getting good reports but that “China’s not easy.” There isn’t much other news at the moment to supplant these trade negotiations as a market mover. Asian markets and European bourses have also tread a mixed and largely unchanged line, waiting for details on trade talks. The May NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is the lone release on today’s economic calendar. It showed an uptick to 98.8 from 95.8 in April. The 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 3.99%, and the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.45%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 continues to trade in a narrow range and is now testing the upper Bollinger Band.… Read More
Headline News: The stock market is poised for a modestly higher open. Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up 11 points and are trading 0.1% above their fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 25 points and are trading 0.1% above their fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 58 points and are trading 0.1% above their fair value. Seeing a little bit of carryover momentum from Friday, yet the market is also waiting hopefully for headlines out of today’s U.S.-China trade talks in London, which are expected to produce some agreements on relaxing export controls. Separately, Bloomberg reports that the Senate could release its version of the reconciliation bill soon, with the aim of passing the final bill by July 4. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at 6,000.36, moving above the long-standing resistance level of 5,986.09. However, up volume accounted for only 76% of total volume, falling short of the 80% threshold typically seen in confirmed breakouts. As such, we do not yet view this move as a decisive breakout. A more convincing rally, ideally accompanied by stronger upside volume, would be needed before the index can… Read More
Headline News: The stock market is on course for a flat start after a subdued night in global equity markets, with futures on the S&P 500 trading in line with fair value. Asian stocks had a decent showing, with South Korea leading the way, while Japan saw gains in its JGBs even though today’s 30-year bond auction met soft demand. Elsewhere, the European Central Bank is likely to announce a rate cut at 8:15 ET, and there is speculation that ECB President Lagarde could hint at a pause in the cycle during her press conference. In the U.S., there is a continued focus on trade policy, with participants wondering when President Trump will speak with China’s President Xi. Treasuries hold modest gains, with longer tenors showing some relative strength. The 10-year yield is down three basis points at 4.34%, while the 2-year yield is down one basis point at 3.87%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a tight range, closing at 5,970.81, just under the current potential support level at 5,986.09. The April jobs report is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning, so we expect traders to remain on the sidelines again today.… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 163 points and are trading 3.0% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 774 points and are trading 3.9% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 999 points and are trading 2.4% above fair value. Major equity indices are poised for a sharply higher open after a significant development in the trade war with China. The U.S. agreed to cut tariffs on China to 30% from 145% for 90 days (20% fentanyl tariffs plus 10% reciprocal tariffs). China decided to cut its retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. to 10% from 125% for 90 days as trade talks continue. Also, President Trump will sign an executive order today at 9:00 ET that will require the government to adopt a “most favored nation” pricing model for prescription drugs so the “U.S. will pay the same price as the nation that pays the lowest price anywhere in the world.” Early trading features a risk-on bias, and large-cap tech stocks lead the premarket action. Treasuries exhibited an uptick in selling. The 10-year yield is up six basis points to 4.44%, and the 2-year yield is up ten basis points… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 50 points and are trading 0.9% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 240 points and are trading 1.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 302 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value. Contracts tied to the S&P 500, the NASDAQ 100, and the Dow industrials are higher. The market’s focus remains on tariff-related developments after indications that President Trump is set to announce a trade deal framework with the U.K. later today, fueling optimism about a shift in the global trade tensions. Also, the Bank of England lowered its bank rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, as expected. U.S. Treasuries are seeing early selling. The 10-year yield is up three basis points to 4.31%, and the 2-year yield is up three basis points to 3.82%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 tested support at its 50-day moving average of 5,561.49 and rallied to close above it at 5,631.28. Futures are pointing to a 1% gain this morning, suggesting an open above the current resistance level at 5,695.31. A decisive close above that threshold would shift focus… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 20 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 50 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 174 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. Early trading features a positive bias despite negative responses to earnings from a couple of prominent tech names. Optimism around the trade war situation is growing, contributing to the early trading bias. China’s Commerce Ministry said that the “US has recently sent messages to China through relevant parties, hoping to start talks with China. China is currently evaluating this.” The market sentiment may shift following the 8:30 ET release of the April Employment Situation Report. Treasury yields are little changed. The 10-year yield is down one basis point to 4.22%, and the 2-year yield is up one basis point to 3.71%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed above the 50-day moving average, and today’s jobs report is bullish for equities. The S&P 500 should test the resistance level at 5,695.31 at the open, and a close above that level would erase the losses that… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 12 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 63 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 179 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. Contracts linked to the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow industrials are lower after this week’s solid equity market gains. There was some hope for de-escalation in the trade war with China amid indications that China could implement tariff exemptions on medical equipment and certain industrial chemicals, similar to what was offered during President Trump’s first term. The 10-year yield is three basis points lower at 4.28%, and the 2-year yield is unchanged at 3.79%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed higher at 5,525.21, with the RSI index also rising above the key 50 level to finish at 53.03. Technically, the correction phase appears to be over, and a new uptrend may be underway. However, any new tariff announcements still have the potential to significantly impact the market. From a technical standpoint, we expect the S&P 500 to test potential resistance at 5,636.18,… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are up 75 points and are trading 1.4% above fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are up 299 points and are trading 1.6% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 361 points and are trading 0.9% above fair value. Early trading has a positive bias, with contracts tied to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials sharply higher. Tech stocks led the pre-open action after reports indicated that President Trump exempted items like smartphones, semiconductors, and some other electronics from reciprocal tariffs. Commerce Secretary Lutnick later said that the exemptions would be temporary, while President Trump said that he would soon announce a tariff rate for semiconductors. Treasury yields are lower. The 10-year yield is down six basis points to 4.43%, and the 2-year yield is down four basis points to 3.91%. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: S&P 500 futures are up 1.60% to start the week, potentially positioning the index to test resistance at 5,488.73. While that level may prove challenging to break today, the index could consolidate just below it for a few more sessions. Volatility likely isn’t behind us, but we… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 28 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 91 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 247 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value. Early trading features a negative bias as investors wait for the Trump administration’s latest tariff measures to be announced tomorrow. There’s also some carryover downside momentum after equities’ weak showing in the first quarter. Treasury yields are sharply lower, reflecting safe-haven buying before the tariff announcements. The 10-yr yield is down nine basis points to 4.16%, and the 2-yr yield is down six basis points to 3.85%. The economic calendar today includes the final March S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI at 9:45 ET, and the March ISM Manufacturing Index, February JOLTS – Job Openings, and February Construction Spending at 10:00 ET. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 initially dropped to a new low of 5,488.73, but buyers stepped in, driving a strong rebound that pushed the index higher to close at 5,611.85. This rally broke through two key resistance levels, with the RSI also closing… Read More
Headline News: The S&P 500 futures are down 65 points and are trading 1.2% below fair value, the NASDAQ 100 futures are down 305 points and are trading 1.6% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 298 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value. Contracts tied to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow industrials are sharply lower. Market participants are waiting on President Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement on April 2 and reacting to some negative tariff-related headlines over the weekend. A Wall Street Journal report indicated that the Trump administration is considering broader tariffs on April 2, including a 20% universal tariff on all imports from all countries. The 10-yr yield is down seven basis points to 4.19%, and the 2-yr yield is down six basis points to 3.85%, reflecting ongoing safe-haven trading due to concerns about US trade policy. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 dropped sharply, closing at 5,580.94—breaking below a key support level at 5,603.10. Selling pressure was intense, with down volume accounting for 87% of total trading. Markets appear unsettled by the new tariffs set to take effect on Wednesday. As of this morning,… Read More
