Headline News: Equity futures are modestly higher this morning following yesterday’s record-setting session that saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite notch all-time intraday and closing highs. The stock market responded enthusiastically to the July CPI report, which was mainly in line with expectations. While some goods indexes showed tariff-related inflation in prices, the headline numbers came in as expected, which was better than what was feared. Interest rate cut expectations increased in response, with three cuts before the end of the year now a strong probability. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested in an interview that the Fed should cut rates by 50 basis points at the next meeting, according to Fox Business. Macro headlines are quiet this morning, meaning the market will largely be left to its own devices as it tries to expand upon yesterday’s rally. On the geopolitical front, Politico reports that President Trump will speak with European leaders today ahead of his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied to a new all-time closing high of 6,445.76, with up volume accounting for 81% of total trading volume. Despite the breakout, the RSI failed… Read More
Headline News: A widely followed measure of inflation accelerated slightly less than expected in July on an annual basis as President Donald Trump’s tariffs worked their way through the economy. The consumer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month and 2.7% on a 12-month basis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. That compared to the respective Dow Jones estimates for 0.2% and 2.8%. Excluding food and energy, core CPI increased 0.3% for the month and 3.1% from a year ago, compared to the forecasts for 0.3% and 3%. Federal Reserve officials generally consider core inflation to be a better reading for longer-term trends. (Jeff Cox, CNBC ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 6,373.45, holding within its current trading range of 6,315.61–6,427.02. Following the release of the July CPI report, S&P 500 futures are up 0.50%, suggesting a potential test of resistance at 6,427.02. A close above that level, accompanied by an up-volume day of 80% or more, could signal the start of a new uptrend. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor Wealth… Read More
Headline News: A widely followed measure of inflation accelerated slightly less than expected in July on an annual basis as President Donald Trump’s tariffs worked their way through the economy. The consumer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month and 2.7% on a 12-month basis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. That compares to the respective Dow Jones estimates for 0.2% and 2.8%. Excluding food and energy, core CPI increased 0.3% for the month and 3.1% from a year ago, compared to the forecasts for 0.3% and 3%. Federal Reserve officials generally consider core inflation to be a better reading for longer-term trends. (Jeff Cox, CNBC ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed lower at 6,373.45, holding within its current trading range of 6,315.61–6,427.02. Following the release of the July CPI report, S&P 500 futures are up 0.50%, suggesting a potential test of resistance at 6,427.02. A close above that level, accompanied by an up-volume day of 80% or more, could signal the start of a new uptrend. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish and short-term bullish. John N. Lilly III CPFA Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor℠ Accredited Asset Management Specialist℠ Portfolio Manager, RJFS Partner, DJWMG Windsor… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures are modestly higher after yesterday’s trade that saw early gains across the board before some modest but broad-based selling activity saw the major averages finish mixed for the day. The announcement of semiconductor tariff exemptions for companies committed to domestic production provided the early pop, though the retreat was largely devoid of any one catalyst. The market will largely be left to its own devices today, as there are no major headline developments so far and no economic data releases. There is another wave of companies reporting earnings at the moment, and while earnings have certainly had stock-specific impacts this week, they have not moved the broader market. The S&P 500 holds a 1.6% week-to-date gain before today’s open, with yesterday’s early push seeing the index test its all-time closing high of 6,389.77 before retreating. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 attempted to rally but faced selling pressure, ultimately closing lower at 6,340.00. A potential trading range between 6,201.59 and 6,427.02 may be forming, suggesting the index is consolidating its recent gains. Key support levels remain at the 20-day moving average of 6,318.56, followed by 6,201.59. We are currently Intermediate-term bullish… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures are modestly higher this morning after yesterday’s retreat in response to some softened economic data, with a fresh wave of earnings reports underlying most of the morning chatter. While this week’s earnings reports lack the mega-cap luster of the prior week, there are still many important industry leaders on the docket. This morning features earnings from a cohort of household names. There are no other notable developments this morning. On the data side, the MBA Mortgage Applications Index for the week ending August 2 increased 3.1% after decreasing 3.8% the prior week. On the trade front, President Trump’s envoy Steve Wilkoff met with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss an end to the war with Ukraine ahead of possible secondary sanctions on Russia. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 closed at 6,299.19, slipping below the 20-day moving average of 6,311.49. This suggests the index may consolidate and form a new base in the coming days. Notably, the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.22%, breaking below key support at 4.24%. This move indicates that the bond market is pricing in rate cuts sooner than expected, which could provide a bullish backdrop for… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures are modestly higher following yesterday’s uneventful session that saw the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite reach new highs. Though there was broad-based selling activity in the afternoon, mega-cap stocks, and particularly tech stocks, performed well enough to preserve modest gains for the indices. There is a fresh batch of earnings reports for the market to digest, but more consequential earnings are to come next week, with four “magnificent seven” names set to report. The market also awaits further trade developments with key trade partners, with The Wall Street Journal reporting that the Trump administration will hold talks with China on trade next week. A separate report from The Wall Street Journal states that Corporate America is paying for most of the cost of tariffs so far, not consumers. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 rallied to a new intraday high of 6,381.31, pushing above the upper Bollinger Band before pulling back. Sellers stepped in, and the index closed lower at 6,363.35, which now becomes potential resistance in today’s session. The RSI remains in overbought territory, suggesting caution is warranted. If the market pulls back, support at 6,315.61 is expected to… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures are higher this morning to start a week that will see the first of the Magnificent 7, among many others, report Q2 earnings. The stock market is coming off a relatively strong week, during which the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reached fresh record highs on Thursday, driven by an encouraging batch of economic data and earnings reports. Earnings are poised to be the primary catalyst for this week’s action, as the economic data releases are noticeably lighter. Tariff headlines have also been relatively calm as of late, with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick expressing confidence that the U.S. will make a trade deal with the EU as the bloc prepares retaliatory measures, according to The Wall Street Journal. President Trump spoke in favor of a 15-20% tariff on imports from Europe, which would be higher than what EU officials had hoped for. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager ) Markets: The S&P 500 tested resistance at the top of its current trading range at 6,305.04, but selling pressure emerged, pushing the index slightly lower to close at 6,296.79. Despite the modest decline, trading remained confined to a narrow range, positioning the index for a potential breakout… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures are mixed this morning, following yesterday’s trade that saw the market retreat from opening highs after interest rates rose following the release of the June CPI. The main catalysts for today’s session are similar to those of yesterday; the market awaits the release of a key piece of inflationary data (today’s June PPI) while a slate of large banks has reported their earnings before the open. Yesterday’s CPI release provided the markets with an initial boost, as the Core CPI number was lower than expected. However, a closer look at the report revealed pockets of inflation in several areas, which stirred concerns about tariff-driven inflation. In turn, interest rates rose throughout the day, most stocks slipped, and the chance of a September rate cut decreased to 54%. Today’s release of the June PPI could be even more influential, as the report will inform the PCE Price Index, which is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. Tariff headlines are relatively subdued this morning, with President Trump stating that a tariff on pharmaceuticals will likely begin on August 1, although it will likely start at a lower rate than the 200% figure to give companies time to adjust.… Read More
Headline News: Consumer prices rose in June as President Donald Trump’s tariffs began to work their way through the U.S. economy slowly. The consumer price index, a broad-based measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.3% on the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.7%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The numbers were right in line with the Dow Jones consensus. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core inflation rose 0.2% month-over-month, with the annual rate increasing to 2.9%, matching the respective estimates. Before June, inflation had been on a generally downward slope for the year, with headline CPI at a 3% annual rate back in January and progressing gradually slower in the subsequent months despite fears that Trump’s trade war would drive prices higher. While the evidence in June was mixed on the extent to which tariffs influence prices, there were signs that the duties are having an impact. Vehicle prices fell on a month-over-month basis, with new vehicle prices down 0.3% and used cars and trucks tumbling 0.7%. However, tariff-sensitive apparel prices increased 0.4%. (Jeff Cox, CNBC) Markets: The S&P 500 closed higher at 6,268.56, remaining within the established trading range of 6,277.60 to 6,290.22.… Read More
Headline News: Equity futures are modestly lower this morning following the announcement of a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico, effective August 1. The head of the EU’s Executive Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has stated that the EU will refrain from imposing any retaliatory measures until the August deadline in hopes of negotiating a better deal, according to Reuters. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has also expressed confidence that she can strike a more favorable deal before August, according to Bloomberg. The stock market has been resilient in the face of tariff announcements over the past two weeks but has been subject to some softer pockets when the country in question is a close trading partner. Thursday saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite eclipse new all-time highs, but the market closed lower for the week following the announcement of a 35% tariff on Canada. Though there are no economic data releases of note today, June CPI numbers will be released on Tuesday, and June PPI numbers come out on Wednesday, which could reflect the impacts of tariffs in relation to inflation. (Michael Gibbs, Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager) Markets: The S&P 500 traded in a narrow range and… Read More
